Fantasy Baseball: A complete 'Do Not Drop' list to help you with your early-season maneuvering

You see another big performance from a player everyone overlooked on Draft Day and rush to the waiver wire to add him.

I get it. During this time of year when no one knows anything yet, you want to cast a wide net to give yourself better odds of catching the big one. It's the nature of the game.

But notice how I said, "No one knows anything yet." That's the honest truth. What we've seen so far basically means nothing. Or perhaps the better way of putting it is that we don't know what it means yet because not enough time has passed.

Most teams have played about 16 games, which means the season is just 10 percent complete. Here's a brief rundown of where things stood 10 percent of the way through last season:

Anthony Volpe was batting .373.
Francisco Lindor was batting .152.
Jesse Winker was batting .354.
Vladimir Guerrero was batting .188.
Orlando Arcia was batting .352.
Bryce Harper was batting .197.

You see there? Nothing!

So if what we've seen so far is essentially nothing, the worst thing we could do is treat it as something. And yet this would seem to interfere with the aforementioned goal of casting a wide net. Does not compute!

Indeed, it's a precarious spot, the kind that could make or break your season depending on how you navigate it. Every move you make right now comes with substantial risk because you don't have enough data to make an informed decision.

But here's one data point that won't change: your investment in a player. You know what it took to get him, and you paid it, willingly, because you were bought in. Well, if nothing means anything yet, then you should still be bought in.

The players who cost the most have the longest track record, the highest upside, and the most potential for regret if you do something hasty with them. They're the ones who you should feel most confident will come around once the sample is large enough to mean something rather than nothing, which won't be for another 20 percent of the season, at least -- probably longer if your investment is high enough. Corbin Carroll was still batting .197 on June 1 of last year. Jackson Chourio was batting .210. You would've been an idiot to drop them then!

I don't want you to be an idiot, so I've devised a list of players who I think are too valuable to drop. You're allowed to drop them, of course, but you stand to lose too much by doing so, at least right now. Obviously, this sort of list is impossible to make one-size-fits-all, but I've at least distinguished between H2H (shallower) and Roto (deeper) leagues for you. Players are also listed in the order I rank them, more or less, so if you know your league is teeny-tiny, you could perhaps take more liberties with those closer to the bottom.

Catcher

H2H and Roto
1) William Contreras, MIL
2) Adley Rutschman, BAL
3) Salvador Perez, KC
4) Cal Raleigh, SEA
5) Yainer Diaz, HOU
6) Willson Contreras, STL
7) Will Smith, LAD
8) J.T. Realmuto, PHI
9) Shea Langeliers, ATH
Roto only
10) Austin Wells, NYY
11) Logan O'Hoppe, LAA
12) Gabriel Moreno, ARI

First base

H2H and Roto
1) Vladimir Guerrero, TOR
2) Bryce Harper, PHI
3) Pete Alonso, NYM
4) Freddie Freeman, LAD
5) Matt Olson, ATL
6) Josh Naylor, ARI
7) Cody Bellinger, NYY
8) Salvador Perez, KC
9) Christian Walker, HOU
10) Vinnie Pasquantino, KC
11) Triston Casas, BOS
12) Tyler Soderstrom, ATH
Roto only
13) Jake Burger, TEX
14) Paul Goldschmidt, NYY
15) Luis Arraez, SD
16) Ryan Mountcastle, BAL
17) Ben Rice, NYY
18) Spencer Torkelson, DET
19) Jonathan Aranda, TB
20) Michael Busch, CHC
21) Spencer Steer, CIN

Second base

H2H and Roto
1) Jazz Chisholm, NYY
2) Jose Altuve, HOU
3) Ketel Marte, ARI
4) Ozzie Albies, ATL
5) Marcus Semien, TEX
6) Jordan Westburg, BAL
7) Matt McLain, CIN
8) Nico Hoerner, CHC
9) Kristian Campbell, BOS
Roto only
10) Jackson Holliday, BAL
11) Brice Turang, MIL
12) Kyren Paris, LAA
13) Tommy Edman, LAD
14) Xander Bogaerts, SD
15) Brandon Lowe, TB
16) Andres Gimenez, TOR
17) Bryson Stott, PHI
18) Luis Arraez, SD
19) Luis Garcia, WAS
20) Jonathan India, KC
21) Brendan Donovan, STL

Third base

H2H and Roto
1) Jose Ramirez, CLE
2) Jazz Chisholm, NYY
3) Austin Riley, ATL
4) Rafael Devers, BOS
5) Manny Machado, SD
6) Alex Bregman, BOS
7) Junior Caminero, TB
8) Jordan Westburg, BAL
9) Mark Vientos, NYM
10) Isaac Paredes, HOU
11) Matt Chapman, SF
12) Eugenio Suarez, ARI
13) Royce Lewis, MIN
H2H only
14) Jake Burger, TEX
15) Alec Bohm, PHI
16) Nolan Arenado, STL
17) Max Muncy, LAD
18) Cam Smith, HOU

Shortstop

H2H and Roto
1) Bobby Witt, KC
2) Elly De La Cruz, CIN
3) Gunnar Henderson, BAL
4) Francisco Lindor, NYM
5) Mookie Betts, LAD
6) Trea Turner, PHI
7) Corey Seager, TEX
8) Oneil Cruz, PIT
9) C.J. Abrams, WAS
10) Bo Bichette, TOR
11) Matt McLain, CIN
12) Willy Adames, SF
Roto only
13) Xavier Edwards, MIA
14) Dansby Swanson, CHC
15) Jackson Holliday, BAL
16) Anthony Volpe, NYY
17) Zachary Neto, LAA
18) Carlos Correa, MIN
19) Xander Bogaerts, SD
20) Ezequiel Tovar, COL
21) Trevor Story, BOS