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If there's one idea that 18 years on this job has reinforced in me, it's that people, by and large, can't see beyond what's happening right now. They'll show the utmost discipline on Draft Day and then abandon it all the moment some fresh face on the waiver wire gives them a wink, like they're Don Draper or something.

As such, the early stages of every season become a battle of wills, with me insisting that so little of what Fantasy Baseballers are seeing is real and them insisting that I must not be paying attention.

But there does come a point when a new season's data is more than just noise, when developments have continued for long enough to become trends, requiring me to reassess my priors.

And that point is about six weeks in, which is where we are now.

I don't want to overstate the case. Nothing that happens over a six-week sample should supersede what's happened over a multi-year sample, and many players' stat lines right now are still a poor reflection of what they're eventually going to be. To demonstrate using a tried-and-true exercise, here were some of the most misleading stat lines through the six-week point of last season.

Bet you're glad you didn't abandon ship on them then. Or did you?

Of course, it's less about the overall stat line, which I think most of us recognize can be easily skewed right now, than the overall impression. If a player hasn't had a single stretch in which he's looked like who you drafted him to be, then you have to at least entertain the possibility that something may be wrong. Again, it could still be misleading. Any longer amount of time you can give a struggling player is going to make for a more accurate assessment. But I live in the real world, where roster space is limited, and new temptations are constantly emerging on the waiver wire. Sometimes you just need an excuse to move on.

I'm going to make this as simple as I can, understanding that no list can be truly one-size-fits-all due to the variety of league sizes and scoring formats, and rattle off all the players that under no circumstances could I see myself dropping -- a "do not drop" list, in other words. Many will be obvious. Others less so. But at least for this moment in time, I can offer complete clarity on the subject.

You'll note that the list for Rotisserie leagues is longer at most every position on account of there being so many more lineup spots to fill (presuming two catcher spots, five outfielder spots, a corner infield spot and a middle infield spot).

Catcher

H2H and Roto
1) Cal Raleigh, SEA
2) Drake Baldwin, ATL
3) Ben Rice, NYY
4) Shea Langeliers, ATH
5) William Contreras, MIL
6) Ivan Herrera, STL
7) Hunter Goodman, COL
Roto only
8) Adley Rutschman, BAL
9) Will Smith, LAD
10) Salvador Perez, KC
11) Samuel Basallo, BAL
12) Carter Jensen, KC
13) Liam Hicks, MIA
14) Francisco Alvarez, NYM
15) Gabriel Moreno, ARI
16) Dalton Rushing, LAD
17) Dillon Dingler, DET
18) Ryan Jeffers, MIN

First base

H2H and Roto
1) Nick Kurtz, ATH
2) Vladimir Guerrero, TOR
3) Matt Olson, ATL
4) Pete Alonso, BAL
5) Bryce Harper, PHI
6) Freddie Freeman, LAD
7) Sal Stewart, CIN
8) Ben Rice, NYY
9) Josh Naylor, SF
10) Rafael Devers, SF
11) Munetaka Murakami, CHW
12) Yandy Diaz, TB
Roto only
13) Christian Walker, HOU
14) Vinnie Pasquantino, KC
15) Michael Busch, CHC
16) Tyler Soderstrom, ATH
17) Jonathan Aranda, TB
18) Salvador Perez, KC
19) Isaac Paredes, HOU
20) Willson Contreras, BOS
21) Miguel Vargas, CHW
22) Ryan O'Hearn, PIT
23) Alec Burleson, STL
24) Spencer Torkelson, DET

Second base

H2H and Roto
1) Fernando Tatis Jr., SD
2) Jazz Chisholm, NYY
3) Ketel Marte, ARI
4) Brice Turang, MIL
5) Nico Hoerner, CHC
6) Ozzie Albies, ATL
7) Luke Keaschall, MIN
8) JJ Wetherholt, STL
9) Brandon Lowe, PIT
10) Jose Altuve, HOU
Roto only
11) Xavier Edwards, MIA
12) Otto Lopez, MIA

Third base

H2H and Roto
1) Jose Ramirez, CLE
2) Junior Caminero, TB
3) Jazz Chisholm, NYY
4) Manny Machado, SD
5) Sal Stewart, CIN
6) Austin Riley, ATL
7) Maikel Garcia, KC
8) Bo Bichette, NYM
9) Kevin McGonigle, DET
10) Alex Bregman, CHC
11) Max Muncy, LAD
H2H only
12) Eugenio Suarez, CIN
13) Isaac Paredes, HOU
14) Kazuma Okamoto, TOR
15) Colson Montgomery, CHW
16) Miguel Vargas, CHW
17) Matt Chapman, SF

Shortstop

H2H and Roto
1) Bobby Witt, KC
2) Elly De La Cruz, CIN
3) Gunnar Henderson, BAL
4) Francisco Lindor, NYM
5) C.J. Abrams, WAS
6) Trea Turner, PHI
7) Zachary Neto, LAA
8) Geraldo Perdomo, ARI
9) Corey Seager, TEX
10) Bo Bichette, NYM
11) Mookie Betts, LAD
12) JJ Wetherholt, STL
13) Kevin McGonigle, DET
14) Konnor Griffin, DET
15) Jeremy Pena, HOU
Roto only
16) Colson Montgomery, CHW
17) Otto Lopez, MIA
18) Xavier Edwards, MIA
19) Trevor Story, BOS
20) Dansby Swanson, CHC
21) Willy Adames, SF
22) Xander Bogaerts, SD
23) Jacob Wilson, ATH

Outfield

H2H and Roto
1) Aaron Judge, NYY
2) Juan Soto, NYM
3) Corbin Carroll, ARI
4) Yordan Alvarez, HOU
5) Kyle Tucker, LAD
6) Ronald Acuna Jr., ATL
7) Julio Rodriguez, SEA
8) James Wood, WAS
9) Jackson Chourio , MIL
10) Fernando Tatis Jr., SD
11) Cody Bellinger, NYY
12) Mike Trout, LAA
13) Randy Arozarena, SEA
14) Oneil Cruz, PIT
15) Pete Crow-Armstrong, CHC
16) Byron Buxton, MIN
17) Roman Anthony, BOS
18) George Springer, TOR
19) Seiya Suzuki, CHC
20) Brent Rooker, ATH
21) Jackson Merrill, SD
22) Jordan Walker, STL
23) Wyatt Langford, TEX
24) Jose Altuve, HOU
25) Taylor Ward, BAL
26) Ian Happ, CHC
27) Chase DeLauter, CLE
Roto only
28) Michael Harris, ATL
29) Tyler Soderstrom, ATH
30) Riley Greene, DET
31) Andy Pages, LAD
32) Jarren Duran, BOS
33) Jo Adell, LAA
34) Brandon Nimmo, TEX
35) Chandler Simpson, TB
36) Ramon Laureano, SD
37) Teoscar Hernandez, LAD
38) Alec Burleson, STL
39) Wilyer Abreu, BOS
40) Ryan O'Hearn, PIT
41) Bryan Reynolds, PIT
42) Daulton Varsho, TOR
43) Kyle Stowers, MIA
44) Mickey Moniak, COL
45) Jakob Marsee, MIA
46) Jac Caglianone, KC

Designated hitter

H2H and Roto
1) Shohei Ohtani, LAD
2) Kyle Schwarber, PHI
3) Christian Yelich, MIL
Roto only
4) Moises Ballesteros, CHC

Starting pitcher

H2H and Roto
1) Paul Skenes, PIT
2) Chris Sale, ATL
3) Garrett Crochet, BOS
4) Yoshinobu Yamamoto, LAD
5) Cristopher Sanchez, PHI
6) Max Fried, ATL
7) Bryan Woo, SEA
8) Logan Gilbert, SEA
9) Jacob deGrom, TEX
10) Cole Ragans, KC
11) Cameron Schlittler, NYY
12) Nolan McLean, NYM
13) Tyler Glasnow, LAD
14) Shohei Ohtani, LAD
15) Kevin Gausman, TOR
16) Joe Ryan, MIN
17) George Kirby, SEA
18) Dylan Cease, TOR
19) Jesus Luzardo, PHI
20) Freddy Peralta, NYM
21) Chase Burns, CIN
22) Shota Imanaga, CHC
23) Gavin Williams, CLE
24) Framber Valdez, DET
25) Logan Webb, SF
26) Hunter Brown, HOU
27) Kris Bubic, KC
28) Nick Lodolo, CIN
29) Jacob Misiorowski, MIL
30) Zack Wheeler, PHI
31) Eury Perez, MIA
32) Emmet Sheehan, LAD
33) Michael King, SD
34) Spencer Strider, ATL
35) Parker Messick, CLE
36) Braxton Ashcraft, PIT
37) Robbie Ray, SF
38) Kyle Bradish, BAL
39) Sandy Alcantara, MIA
40) Ranger Suarez, BOS
41) Trey Yesavage, TOR
42) Jose Soriano, LAA
43) Tarik Skubal, DET
44) Trevor Rogers, BAL
45) Brandon Woodruff, MIL
46) Drew Rasmussen, TB
47) Nathan Eovaldi, TEX
48) Blake Snell, LAD
49) Carlos Rodon, NYY
50) Gerrit Cole, NYY
51) Chase Dollander, COL
52) Ryan Weathers, NYY
53) Shane McClanahan, TB
54) Emerson Hancock, SEA

Relief pitcher

H2H and Roto
1) Mason Miller, SD
2) Cade Smith, CLE
3) Andres Munoz, SEA
4) Adolis Chapman, BOS
5) Jhoan Duran, PHI
6) Raisel Iglesias, ATL
7) Riley O'Brien, STL
8) Louie Varland, TOR
9) David Bednar, NYY
10) Daniel Palencia, CHC
11) Kenley Jansen, DET
12) Devin Williams, NYM
13) Ryan Helsley, BAL
14) Braxton Ashcraft, PIT
15) Payton Tolle, BOS
16) Bryan Baker, TB
17) Paul Sewald, ARI
18) Abner Uribe, MIL
19) Josh Hader, HOU
Roto only
20) Seranthony Dominguez, CHW
21) Pete Fairbanks, MIA
22) Lucas Erceg, KC
23) Tanner Scott, LAD