Fantasy Football Week 9 Lineup Decisions: Caleb Williams aims to exploit Cincinnati's defense

Fantasy Football is all about the matchups. Even though you drafted your team with certain hopes and intentions, your weekly lineup decisions shouldn't be determined by the order you picked your players in. You need to check who your players play and make sure you've got the right guys in -- and the wrong guys out.

We can take some educated guesses based on coaches film, meaningful data, healthy personnel, defensive schemes, track records, and key details of offenses. The things we know can help us minimize the impact of the things we don't know. This should lead to better decisions being made.

We'll go through every game and highlight the players who aren't obvious starts and sits (because you don't need to be told to sit Elic Ayomanor). You should feel more comfortable starting or sitting players based on the information given, and feeling comfortable with your Fantasy lineup before the games start is the best feeling in the world.

All lines from Caesars Sportsbook.

Miami's offense ran smoothly and with tempo last week against the Falcons -- Tua Tagovailoa got the ball out quickly and made a lot of good decisions, the team's misdirection plays worked, and they basically out-ran their opponent. While the Ravens secondary has played better as their top players have gotten back on the field, their pass rush has been decimated to the point where they uncharacteristically rank 30th in sack rate and 29th in pass rush pressure rate on the season. Tagovailoa is noticeably more efficient against man-to-man coverage, especially when it comes to touchdowns (18.9% rate versus man, 2.2% versus zone), and when he has more than two seconds to throw against man coverage, he's even better (69% completion rate, 7.9 yards per attempt, six touchdowns on 29 attempts). Tagovailoa's two best games of 2025 came in games where he was pressured under 27% of his dropbacks; the Ravens have a 27.8% pass rush pressure rate or worse in each of their past four games. Tack on that the Ravens run defense is generally better with linebacker Roquan Smith on the field, and it would make sense for the Dolphins to try utilizing Tagovailoa at least as much as they did last week. Trusting him in Fantasy will be difficult and probably unnecessary given the quality at the position, but at least there should be optimism for Jaylen Waddle, De'Von Achane as a receiver, and maybe even Malik Washington as a short-area target.

MUST-STARTS: Lamar Jackson, De'Von Achane, Derrick Henry

STARTS: Jaylen Waddle, Zay Flowers

SITS: Tua Tagovailoa (sneaky sleeper), Mark Andrews, Malik Washington (desperation PPR WR), Tanner Conner, Ollie Gordon, Ravens DST, Dolphins DST

I've got some real questions if Caleb Williams can't put up a good game against this lowly defense. Cincinnati is dead last in blitz rate for the season, third-worst in pass rush pressure rate, fourth-worst in sack rate, and they're coming off their worst pass rush game of the year when they got pressure on just 18.9% of the Jets' dropbacks. They haven't recorded a sack in two games. Trey Hendrickson, if he plays, won't be at 100 percent and hasn't been for much of the year. Here's the problem: Williams is naturally more efficient when he's not pressured, but even when that happens, he's still throwing catchable passes at an 87.4% rate, ninth-worst among qualifying quarterbacks. This has to be a week where Williams doesn't frantically scramble every other play -- he must stay cool in the pocket and deliver. The Bengals have allowed at least 22.9 Fantasy points to five of the past seven quarterbacks they've faced, including Justin Fields last week and Aaron Rodgers the week before. Williams should be good for that total, which makes him startable.

There's no question Chase Brown has seen his numbers improve since Joe Flacco took over at quarterback, with last week's 25.5 PPR points his best of the year. I wouldn't expect a repeat performance against a suddenly improved Bears defense. In the three games since their bye, the Bears have held RBs to 3.8 yards per rush, a 3.4% explosive rush rate (seventh best in the timespan), and have just two missed tackles. Defensive tackle Gervon Dexter continues to play a big role there, and the linebackers have been steady for the most part. It's a tougher matchup for Brown and his offensive line, particularly since there's a chance Cincy ends up throwing a lot against a depleted Bears secondary. Count Brown as a No. 2 running back, not a No. 1.

MUST-STARTS: Ja'Marr Chase, D'Andre Swift, Rome Odunze

STARTS: Joe Flacco, Caleb Williams (low-end starter), Tee Higgins, Chase Brown

FLEX: D.J. Moore

SITS: Colston Loveland (high-end No. 2 TE), Kyle Monangai (desperation RB), Samaje Perine, Noah Fant, Andrei Iosivas, Bears DST, Bengals DST

There's good reason to be worried about every Vikings player, including both Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. The Lions have played the sixth-highest man-to-man coverage rate this year (excluding garbage time) and may do so as long as they have a big lead. This man-heavy tendency also showed up in their two meetings against Minnesota last year, playing nearly 50% of the coverage in each game. To say McCarthy has struggled against man-to-man over his 54 dropbacks is putting it mildly -- all three of his interceptions came against man coverage, no touchdowns have been thrown against man coverage, his completion rate is an ugly 53.3% and his yards per attempt is pretty close to how he does against zone coverage. Tack on a depleted Minnesota offensive line unable to protect him from the Lions' tough pass rush (40%-plus pass rush pressure rate in four of their past five), and this could be the worst kind of on-the-job experience McCarthy will face in his career. Even with the Lions secondary missing multiple starters, it's hard to expect the kind of production both Jefferson (17.3 PPR points per game) and Addison (16 PPR points per game) created over their past four games with Carson Wentz. 

MUST-STARTS: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Justin Jefferson (No. 2 WR)

STARTS: Jared Goff, David Montgomery, Sam LaPorta, Lions DST

FLEX: Jordan Addison (low-end No. 2 PPR WR), Jameson Williams (low-end flex)

SITS: J.J. McCarthy, T.J. Hockenson (high-end No. 2 TE), Aaron Jones (desperation PPR RB), Jordan Mason, Jalen Nailor, Vikings DST

Earlier this week, Dave Canales told the media that the team would start giving more opportunities to Rico Dowdle. Why he wasn't already doing that in the first place, since Week 7 is mystifying, especially since Chuba Hubbard hadn't shown anywhere near the efficiency that Dowdle did in their past two games. Who knows if he's going to stick with that, and even if he does, what might that reimagined timeshare look like? I would guess something like Week 5 when Dowdle played 68% of the snaps and was not on the field for most of the Panthers' third downs. Of course, Dowdle took off in that game versus Miami and had 84% of the RB touches for over 230 total yards. Green Bay's a different story: They got knocked around for 5.2 yards per rush last week at Pittsburgh, but only one run by the Steelers went longer than 14 yards (and only two runs went longer than nine yards). Tack on the projected game script of Green Bay playing with a lead, and there could be fewer opportunities than we'd like for Dowdle. Start him as a No. 2 running back, but be aware that there's plenty of downside based on the matchup as well as whether or not Canales told the truth to the media.

MUST-STARTS: Josh Jacobs, Tucker Kraft

STARTS: Jordan Love, Tetairoa McMillan, Rico Dowdle (No. 2 RB), Packers DST

FLEX: Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson

SITS: Bryce Young, Jalen Coker and Matthew Golden (desperation WRs), Chuba Hubbard, Xavier Legette, Emanuel Wilson, Panthers DST

The Texans and Broncos are both in the top five in points allowed and yards allowed per game this season (Houston is first in both categories). That should set expectations for a low-scoring field-goal fest between these two stingy defenses. It's bad for both quarterbacks: Bo Nix will see a Texans defense that can get pressure without blitzing and play a lot of quality zone coverage behind it, and Nix is less efficient against zone coverage and a mess when pressured (44.6% completion rate, 4.3 yards per pass attempt, 3.1% TD rate, all bad). C.J. Stroud will deal with a more aggressive Broncos defense that may compensate for the loss of shutdown cornerback Pat Surtain II with more blitzing. Houston's offensive line remains a mess that was exploited as recently as Week 7 at Seattle and could easily be the Texans' downfall this week. I'm not sure there's one player I'd have high expectations for in this matchup, Courtland Sutton included.

STARTS: Nico Collins, Courtland Sutton (No. 2 WR), Woody Marks (low-end No. 2 PPR RB), JK Dobbins (low-end No. 2 RB), Broncos DST, Texans DST

FLEX: Troy Franklin

SITS: Bo Nix, C.J. Stroud, R.J. Harvey (desperation RB), Nick Chubb, Jaylin Noel, Xavier Hutchinson, Jayden Higgins, Evan Engram, Dalton Schultz

The Patriots have become outstanding against the run, and cornerback Christian Gonzalez has done a real nice job eliminating opposing teams' No. 1 receivers. But one spot the Pats have struggled with is tight ends. On the year, six tight ends have scored at least 11.3 PPR points against them, including both Browns tight ends in Week 8. There have been four tight ends with at least six targets against New England, and all four exceeded 15 PPR points. Pitts has been used with more variety this year and seems healthier than he's been in years. He also has six-plus targets in four games and 12-plus PPR points in three of those four. If London misses the game, or even if he plays and draws Gonzalez in coverage, Pitts should be a factor.

MUST-STARTS: Bijan Robinson, Drake London (No. 2 WR if he plays)

STARTS: Drake Maye, Kyle Pitts, Patriots DST

FLEX: Kayshon Boutte, Stefon Diggs, Rhamondre Stevenson

SITS: Michael Penix Jr., Darnell Mooney, Hunter Henry, TreVeyon Henderson, Tyler Allgeier, Falcons DST

Tyrone Tracy Jr. takes over for Cam Skattebo as the Giants' primary running back. He'll run behind a serviceable offensive line and should have a realistic shot to take most of the 22 touches per game Skattebo had between Weeks 4 and 7. Tracy may even offer the Giants a little bit more receiving skills than Skattebo, but any edge he has there, he loses in terms of physicality by comparison to the rookie rusher. He'll take on a Niners run defense that took a step back last week (4.6 yards per rush with two explosive runs against the Texans in Week 8), but they were impressive in their prior two games without Fred Warner in the middle of the defense. I'd cautiously start Tracy as a volume-driven No. 2 running back, but this shouldn't be a matchup he steamrolls over. If anything, he might make a dent in the passing game; Dart has targeted running backs on 18.1% of his throws.

MUST-STARTS: Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle

STARTS: Jaxson Dart, Tyrone Tracy Jr. (No. 2 RB), 49ers DST (low-end starter)

FLEX: Wan'Dale Robinson (PPR), Jauan Jennings, Darius Slayton (non-PPR)

SITS: Mac Jones, Kendrick Bourne, Theo Johnson, Devin Singletary, Brian Robinson Jr., Giants DST

Aaron Rodgers has multiple passing touchdowns in three straight with at least 20.8 Fantasy points in each. He's started to hold the ball a little bit longer and throw a little more downfield in these games, a change from early in the season. The Colts typically play zone coverage on early downs and more man-to-man on third downs, and they don't blitz much but do get plenty of pass rush pressure anyway. This is not unlike the matchup Rodgers had in Week 8 against the Packers, and he was plenty comfortable in it. The difference is that the Colts run defense (4.0 yards per rush excluding garbage time with a teeny-tiny 3.2% explosive rush rate allowed) is a tougher draw for the Pittsburgh run game. Between that and the Colts piling up the yardage when they're on offense, there's a good chance Rodgers will have to throw a good amount. In four of five games with at least 31 dropbacks he's been over 20 Fantasy points. It's good news for him, for DK Metcalf, his running backs (he throws to them on 24.5% of his attempts) and maybe even his tight ends (the Colts have let up at least 9.3 half-PPR points to a tight end in three straight). 

MUST-STARTS: Jonathan Taylor, Tyler Warren, Michael Pittman

STARTS: Daniel Jones, DK Metcalf, Jaylen Warren, Colts DST, Steelers DST (low-end starter)

FLEX: Josh Downs (PPR)

SITS: Aaron Rodgers (high-end No. 2 QB), Alec Pierce (desperation WR), Jonnu Smith, Kenneth Gainwell, Roman Wilson

Last week it was mentioned how Ladd McConkey drew a higher target per route rate when Justin Herbert has been pressured this year with Keenan Allen and Oronde Gadsden II just behind him. When Herbert hasn't been pressured, it's been Allen cleaning up with a high 32.9% target per route run rate with McConkey (22.5%), Quentin Johnston (19.5%) and Gadsden (15.8%) trailing behind. Even if you break it down over the Chargers past three games, Allen has the highest rate, McConkey the second-highest and Gadsden flip-flopping with Johnston by a considerable margin. Of course this is being brought up because the Titans have been bottom-four in blitz rate and bottom-10 in pass rush pressure rate for the season. They could be without All-Pro defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons, and they traded away cornerback Roger McCreary to the Rams. Tack on the Chargers offensive line finally entering a game with some consistency and it should be a field day for all of the Bolts, Allen included. 

MUST-STARTS: Ladd McConkey

STARTS: Justin Herbert, Kimani Vidal, Oronde Gadsden II, Keenan Allen (No. 2 WR), Chargers DST

FLEX: Quentin Johnston, Tyjae Spears (PPR)

SITS: Cam Ward, Tony Pollard (desperation RB), Chimere Dike (sneaky sleeper), Chig Okonkwo, Elic Ayomanor, Titans DST

Tyler Shough was one of the more mature quarterback prospects in the 2025 draft in terms of footwork and throwing mechanics. And age -- he's 26. And while Shough demonstrated the ability to stand and deliver in dirty pockets in college as well as throw the deep fade accurately, he didn't quite have the arm strength that separates the solid quarterbacks from the good quarterbacks. Shough will attempt to guide the Saints offense against a strong Rams pass defense that humbled the Jaguars two weeks ago and added slot cornerback Roger McCreary from the Titans since. It's a tough spot not only for him but for receivers like Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, both of whom figure to lose a little upside with the quarterback shift. 

MUST STARTS: Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Kyren Williams

STARTS: Matthew Stafford, Chris Olave, Alvin Kamara (No. 2 RB), Rams DST

SITS: Tyler Shough, Blake Corum (desperation RB), Rashid Shaheed (desperation WR), Juwan Johnson (high-end No. 2 TE), Tyler Higbee, Taysom Hill, Devin Neal, Saints DST

When Week 7 ended, Travis Hunter had a career-high 14 targets, eight catches and 101 yards with a touchdown. However, all of the production came in the second half of a blowout loss to the Rams. Jaguars coach Liam Coen said after that game that he planned all along to involve Hunter more on offense but didn't get the chance to until the second half. Then this week Coen mentioned that Hunter and Trevor Lawrence are building their connection and that the Jaguars need that. Because most of Hunter's targets haven't been downfield, he and Lawrence could potentially get into a rhythm early to help the Jaguars sustain drives in the first half. Hunter also hasn't made as many mistakes as Brian Thomas Jr. has. It's probably for the best to view both Hunter and Thomas as borderline No. 2/No. 3 Fantasy receivers (Thomas a little better than Hunter, especially in non- and half-PPR). Seven receivers have scored at least 14.4 PPR points in seven Raiders games this season with only the Titans not fielding at least one.

STARTS: Brock Bowers, Ashton Jeanty, Travis Etienne, Brian Thomas Jr., Jaguars DST

FLEX: Travis Hunter (high-end No. 3 WR)

SITS: Trevor Lawrence (high-end No. 2 QB), Geno Smith, Tre Tucker, Jakobi Meyers, Bhayshul Tuten, Jack Bech, Raheem Mostert, Raiders DST

Kareem Hunt has some pretty good timing. With Isiah Pacheco expected to miss Week 9, Elijah Mitchell's fresh legs are not expected to make a major impact, and rookie Brashard Smith is still not playing a large portion of the Chiefs' snaps. Hunt is in line to lead the Chiefs run game. In the Bills' past four, they've given up 5.1 yards per carry and a 12.2% explosive run rate. They also lost big defensive tackle Ed Oliver to a biceps injury last week. There's no doubt that Hunt isn't an explosive running back, but he's trusted by the coaching staff to already handle passing downs and short-yardage. Adding on some of what would otherwise be Pacheco's carries, like the 14 attempts he had in eight games without Pacheco last year, seems reasonable. True, Hunt's worst game was a catchless 14-60-0 rushing line at Buffalo in Week 11 last year, but in his other seven games, he had at least 10 PPR (and 8.5 non-PPR) points in each. His coach also said this week he's in better shape now than he was in 2024. There's a pretty safe floor for a TD-needy running back in a high-scoring game, enough to call him a borderline No. 2 running back.

The Chiefs are known for being a man-to-man coverage team, but they have a pretty good track record of playing zone coverage against Josh Allen, really only reverting to man coverage when they're behind or on some third downs. The Chiefs also haven't blitzed a lot against Allen through the years, again only resorting to that when they're trailing and try to force a turnover. So if the Bills are to expect more zone coverage and less blitzing, then Allen should find Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid the most. On the year, Shakir has the highest target per route run rate (27.4%) with Kincaid second-best (23.1%) among primary Bills pass catchers against zone, and Shakir has a high rate in the instances Allen is pressured as well (23.1%). The point is that I'd expect Shakir and Kincaid to be primary outlets for Allen and potentially deliver solid numbers as part of the annual high-scoring shootout.

MUST-STARTS: Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, James Cook, Rashee Rice

STARTS: Kareem Hunt (low-end No. 2 RB), Dalton Kincaid, Travis Kelce

FLEX: Khalil Shakir, Xavier Worthy

SITS: Keon Coleman, Marquise Brown, Brashard Smith (desperation PPR RB), Elijah Moore, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Ty Johnson, Ray Davis, Elijah Mitchell, Chiefs DST, Bills DST

Jayden Daniels returns to one of the toughest matchups he could have. Seattle's zone-heavy defense has held all but two quarterbacks to 20.8 Fantasy points or less. The two who exceeded? Baker Mayfield on crazy-good efficiency in Week 5 and Trevor Lawrence on less efficiency but 42 pass attempts in Week 6. Daniels has mixed results against zone coverage both this season and in his career, with the trend being that he doesn't take as many downfield shots against it. He also has just a 2.2% TD rate against zone this season and 1.4% for his 22-game career. The numbers only get worse when he's pressured -- he has one career passing touchdown against zone when the heat's on. Here's the bright side: Daniels has 22-plus Fantasy points in 14 of 17 career games when he's dropped back at least 35 times. Given the state of the Commanders run game, especially versus a run defense holding opponents to 2.9 yards per rush this season, it's a safe bet that Daniels will do a lot of heavy lifting. Even in a tough matchup, he should deliver at least decent numbers.

MUST-STARTS: Jaxon Smith-Njigba

STARTS: Jayden Daniels, Kenneth Walker III (low-end No. 2 RB), Zach Ertz, Seahawks DST

FLEX: Zach Charbonnet, Jacory Croskey-Merritt (non-PPR)

SITS: Sam Darnold (high-end No. 2 QB), Jeremy McNichols (desperation PPR RB), Cooper Kupp, Chris Moore, Luke McCaffrey, Jaylin Lane, Tory Horton, Commanders DST

There's no concern about the matchup itself for Arizona, but whether or not its offense can keep up with Dallas on the scoreboard is. Kyler Murray has one game with more than 20.1 Fantasy points this year (22.3 in Week 1) and has been gun-shy compared to backup Jacoby Brissett, who averaged an 8.8-yard average depth of throw and 5.0% TD rate in his two starts compared to Murray's 5.8-yard average depth and 3.7% TD rate. Coming off injury and out of the bye may have given Murray the time needed to reflect on his season and what he can do to be more explosive. And the favorable matchup he'll face -- seven QBs have at least 24 Fantasy points against Dallas this year, five have 29-plus -- could give him the platform to reach huge numbers, especially if he's chasing points. One last factor: There's no doubt Murray circled this game on his calendar as he's from the Dallas area and has never lost in nine games at AT&T Stadium as a pro, collegiate, or high school athlete. Maybe it motivates him a little more to show out.

Of course, the Cardinals' best path to winning might just be to run the ball. The Cowboys have been a sieve all year against the run, but in their past five games, they've let up 5.7 yards per rush to running backs with a 15.5% explosive rate allowed. Last week, the Broncos gained 12-plus yards on a fourth of their RB runs! Zonovan Knight figures to be the Cardinals' primary rusher, and while he doesn't have a track record of being explosive, he can at least be serviceable in this incredible matchup. Leaning on the run, particularly with Kyler Murray next to him, would give Arizona a chance at shortening the game and keeping Dallas from possessing the ball. It's a lot to ask of Knight, and if the Cardinals fall behind early, he could lose out on playing time since he's not on the field much in passing situations. There have been only two games this season when a RB didn't have at least 11.9 non-PPR points against the Cowboys. Pencil Knight in for about that much.

MUST-STARTS: CeeDee Lamb, Javonte Williams, Trey McBride

STARTS: Dak Prescott, Jake Ferguson, George Pickens (No. 2 WR), Zonovan Knight (No. 2 RB), Marvin Harrison Jr.

SITS: Kyler Murray (borderline starter), Michael Wilson, Greg Dortch, Jalen Tolbert, KaVontae Turpin, Jaydon Blue, Cowboys DST, Cardinals DST