NFL: Pittsburgh Steelers at Carolina Panthers
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Around this time of year in the NFL, everyone has hope. It's all sunshine and rainbows and best-case scenarios. No games have been played. The first week of actual practices for Week 1 hasn't even begun just yet. Everything is still theoretically possible.

But of course, things don't always work out. Sometimes, everything goes wrong and you don't achieve your dreams. 

What we're going to do today is pay you a visit from the future and explain, in the world where things don't work out for the best for your favorite team, why it happened. Basically, what is the one factor that could really hold your team back from being able to accomplish its goals. 

Without further ado ...

NFC East

Cowboys: Defense

Regardless of what happens with Micah Parsons, Dallas has issues on the defensive side of the ball. The run defense is once again a major question mark. The linebackers are suspect. The cornerback room is rife with injuries and counting on bounce-backs from players like Kaiir Elam. Matt Eberflus is trying to fit square pegs in round holes by having Mazi Smith lose weight and play 1-tech like a gap-shooter rather than a space-eater. The Cowboys offense should be good if Dak Prescott stays healthy, but the defense could hold them back in a big way.

Giants: The schedule

New York has the single-toughest schedule in the NFL by opponent over-unders. The only team on the Giants' schedule that doesn't have a legitimate chance to make the playoffs is the Saints. Not only do they play their NFC East brethren twice apiece, but they get the NFC North and AFC West, plus the 49ers and Patriots. Especially early in the year, it's REALLY difficult stuff. They play at Washington and Dallas, then the Chiefs and Chargers, and after the Saints, they play the Eagles, Broncos, Eagles again, Niners, Bears, Packers, Lions and Pats before a Week 14 bye. Sheesh. Things don't let up much after that. Washington, Minnesota, Vegas and Dallas to end the season.

Eagles: Health regression

Saquon Barkley had a magical season. He also touched the ball 378 times during the regular season and then 104 more times in the playoffs. He's 28 years old, which helps stave off age-related regression, but players who touch the ball that often typically have health issues and trouble maintaining the same level of play the following year. The Eagles already have an injury along the offensive line with Landon Dickerson. (Edit: Dickerson has returned to practice.) They stayed mostly healthy last season, and if that's not the case this year, then even arguably the best roster in the league could be a relative disappointment.

Commanders: Pass rush

Dan Quinn is really going to have to cobble things together when it comes to generating pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Dante Fowler Jr. is no longer here, having returned to Dallas. Dorance Armstrong has always been best as a complementary rushman. Von Miller is not the same guy at his advanced age. I'm not inspired at all by the combination of Jacob Martin and Deatrich Wise behind them. If the Commies can get interior push from Jonathan Allen, Javon Kinlaw and Jer'Zhan Newton, maybe things work out okay, but if there's any weak point of this team, it's probably this one.

NFC North

Bears: Caleb Williams ain't it

Williams' rookie season was a disappointment. The idea coming into Year 2 is that Ben Johnson and a remade offensive line will lift him back to being the type of player we all thought he could be coming out of USC. And it's, of course, entirely possible that we end up living in that world. But it's also possible that he doesn't fully take to Johnson's system, that Joe Thuney experiences age-related regression, that Jonah Jackson is the same guy who got benched in L.A, that the receiver corps doesn't coalesce the way the Bears hope it will, etc. and that Williams disappoints us all again.

Lions: Offseason turnover

Speaking of Ben Johnson, he's no longer in Detroit. Neither is former Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn, who took former passing-game coordinator Tanner Engstrand with him to New York. Frank Ragnow retired. Kevin Zeitler signed with Tennessee. There is just a whole lot of change going on here, especially on the offensive side of the ball. It's a lot to deal with -- even for a team as talented and well-coached as the Lions. 

Packers: Lack of elite talent

The Packers have a lot of good players. On both sides of the ball. What they don't have is the field-tilting stars that you need to be and beat the best teams in the NFL. We saw that last year when they went 0-6 against the Lions, Vikings and Eagles and 11-1 against everyone else in the NFL. The Packers are bringing back mostly the same roster, and it's possible that the same issue could bite them again this season.

Vikings: J.J. McCarthy ain't it

Minnesota is counting on a player who is essentially a rookie, to lead one of the best rosters in the NFL further than it went a year ago. McCarthy missed his entire first year in the league due to a knee injury, and while he got mental reps and had weekly meetings with Kevin O'Connell, he's still a first-year starter who didn't throw very many passes in college and who now didn't get the live reps you would usually be afforded during your rookie year. We've seen that O'Connell can scheme quarterbacks into at least a moderate degree of success, but the Vikes are surely looking for more than merely moderate success out of McCarthy. If he can't achieve that, though, their season could end up being a disappointment.

NFC South

Falcons: Pass rush

The Falcons haven't had a good pass rush since approximately 1952, and they weren't even founded until 1966. It's unfair to put the burden of years of failure on a pair of rookies, but the Falcons invested so much in them (especially James Pearce Jr., for whom they traded up and gave away their 2026 first-rounder) that it almost has to work out right away for the investment to pay off. If it doesn't, then their defense is likely to struggle and they'll have to win a bunch of shootouts.

Panthers: Defense

As we wrote when identifying each team's biggest challenge: The Panthers checked in second-to-last in expected points added (EPA) per dropback allowed last season, via TruMedia, with opposing quarterbacks sitting pretty in clean pockets and picking their secondary to pieces. Carolina got pressure on just 25.2% of dropbacks (dead last) and also ranked dead last in average time to pressure (2.75 seconds). There was no level of disruption to anything that opposing passers wanted to do on any level. As a result, Carolina yielded first downs on 38.7% of passes (also dead last) and explosive plays on 8.6% of dropbacks (27th in the NFL). If things don't change this year, any improvement they get on offense might not matter as much as it seems. 

Saints: Quarterback play

Spencer Rattler "won" the quarterback battle over second-round pick Tyler Shough in training camp. Given what we saw of Rattler in his opportunities last year, it's not that inspiring that he was able to beat out the rookie. He has some arm talent but he's very loose with the ball and takes a lot of sacks. He didn't seem to show much in the way of upside to make up for those deficiencies, either. And if Shough eventually takes over, it's not an encouraging sign that he couldn't beat out Rattler to begin with.

Buccaneers: Regression hits hard

Tampa ran extremely hot in basically all respects last season. Baker Mayfield saw his completion and touchdown rates spike to career-best levels, which made up for the fact that his interception rate was basically the same as the one that got him traded by Cleveland and then benched and ultimately cut in Carolina. The offensive line was totally dominant, but it already might be without Tristan Wirfs for some time and then playing with a not-100% version of him if and when he returns. Chris Godwin isn't ready to come back yet and Jalen McMillan is out for half the year if not more. The offense could come back to earth a bit this year.

NFC West

Cardinals: Offense stalls out

The Cards did coach Jonathan Gannon a solid this offseason and finally invested some resources into their defense. Not only did they use each of their first five draft picks on defensive players (Walter Nolen, Will Johnson, Jordan Burch, Cody Simon and Denzel Burke), they also splashed the pot in free agency. But in spending so much time fixing that side of the ball, the Cardinals barely added anything on offense, and they lost offensive line coach Klayton Adams, who was the architect of their strong run game. If they can't recapture their form on offense, that might offset any gains they make defensively.

Rams: Injuries 

Again, as we wrote when discussing each team's biggest challenge: You might have heard that Matthew Stafford is dealing with a back injury. Back injuries and 37-year-old quarterbacks go together like lamb and tuna fish. If he has to miss time, this entire operation falls apart, even if you think Jimmy Garoppolo is a capable backup. The Rams need Stafford to stay healthy because his arm and his mind open up so much of what they want to do offensively. They also can't afford for Puka Nacua to miss time again, and obviously Davante Adams is getting up there in age as well. Oh, and Alaric Jackson is dealing with injury issues of his own. This all feels very fragilely constructed, even if the ceiling is high. 

49ers: Injuries

Brandon Aiyuk isn't ready to come back just yet. Jauan Jennings is still dealing with a calf injury and holding in for a new contract. Seemingly the entire running back room is hurt. Even some of the defensive additions are dealing with injuries. First-round pick Mykel Williams didn't play at all during the preseason. And we know that Christian McCaffrey is always at significant injury risk, even if he was the only running back to actually make it through the preseason unscathed.

Seahawks: Offensive line and Sam Darnold

As we wrote when discussing each team's most important non-QB: We know what it can look like when Sam Darnold is playing behind a porous offensive line and constantly under siege. Just look at the difference between how he played for almost the entire season in Minnesota last year, and how he played in the Vikings' final two games of the season. Seattle desperately needs to keep pressure out of his face, or the contract it gave him this offseason will end up looking really bad, really fast. This is an offensive line that has struggled in its own right over the last few seasons, so there is going to need to be some significant improvement to make good on the investment in Darnold.

AFC East

Bills: The playoffs

With Buffalo, it's less about having a disappointing overall season than it is about having another disappointing result. At this point in their life cycle, the Bills are all about getting to and winning the Super Bowl. Nothing else is going to be considered a success. Considering that the Chiefs and Ravens are in the exact same situation, and they're all in the same conference, it's guaranteed that at least two of the three teams will be going home unhappy. That gives the Bills at least a 66% chance of being unhappy at the end of the year. 

Dolphins: Defensive backfield

Have you seen Miami's cornerback depth chart? Jalen Ramsey got traded. Artie Burns and Kader Kohou are both out for the year. Rasul Douglas was just signed off the street to be a likely starter. Storm Duck is heavily involved here, as is fifth-round pick Jason Marshall, castoff Jack Jones and possibly guys like Ethan Bonner and JuJu Brents. There's only so much that Minkah Fitzpatrick can make up for by his lonesome.

Patriots: Offensive infrastructure

Drake Maye had one of the NFL's worst supporting casts last season, and the offensive line was the biggest issue. The Patriots invested a lot of resources into the line this offseason, but we still don't know whether it will be able to keep him well protected. The Pats also brought in guys like Stefon Diggs and Kyle Williams to remake the receiver corps, but Diggs is coming off a torn ACL and Williams is still just a third-round rookie. The infrastructure around Maye should be better this year than it was last, but that's also not saying much. It could still hold them back.

Jets: Lack of passing weapons

Go look at New York's wide receiver depth chart. There is nothing here beyond Garrett Wilson. Josh Reynolds is looking like the No. 2 wideout. Tyler Johnson is probably going to man the slot. Allen Lazard is still hanging around, a remnant from when the Jets thought Aaron Rodgers was going to save them. Xavier Gipson fills things out. At tight end, they've got a rookie (Mason Taylor) who had a high ankle sprain in camp. Justin Fields isn't the best passer to begin with, and the Jets gave him precious little with which to work in the aerial attack.

AFC North

Ravens: The playoffs

Let's just copy-paste that Bills section: With Baltimore, it's less about having a disappointing overall season than it is about having another disappointing result. At this point in their life cycle, the Ravens are all about getting to and winning the Super Bowl. Nothing else is going to be considered a success. Considering that the Chiefs and Bills are in the exact same situation, and they're all in the same conference, it's guaranteed that at least two of the three teams will be going home unhappy. That gives the Ravens at least a 66% chance of being unhappy at the end of the year. 

Bengals: No defensive improvement

The Bengals finally made things work with Trey Hendrickson but they are still extremely shorthanded in the talent department on defense. The first team got absolutely lit aflame in the two preseason appearances it made. It was ugly. Hendrickson obviously wasn't out there, but it's not like even he made a difference in how bad they were last season. They're counting on Al Golden, Shemar Stewart and a few more investments to really turn things around very quickly. Unless they make a major leap, though, the Bengals might still be a considerably below-average unit.

Browns: League-worst QB play

People tend to think of the 2023 Joe Flacco experience in Cleveland through rose-colored glasses because the Browns somehow went 4-1 in his starts. The man completed only 60.3% of his passes and was picked off eight times i. four games. Unless he's somehow going to maintain his astronomical 6.4% touchdown rate from that season, which is more than 1.5 times higher than his career mark, then this is not going to be pretty. And it's not like Day 2 or 3 picks in Dillon Gabriel or Shedeur Sanders should be expected to be any better.

Steelers: Aaron Rodgers is cooked

From our story on every team's biggest challenge: Rodgers is, at this point, a major question mark for whichever team he's on. Not just in terms of the quality of his play, but also his willingness to actually work inside the structure of an NFL offense. His touchdown-to-interception ratio in New York last year is wildly misleading when it comes to how he actually played. He was short-cutting the options within the system repeatedly to avoid getting hit, spraying throws underneath or deep down the field on a whim rather than going through his progressions and finding the right man with whom to pepper the ball. The idea that he's going to be a seamless fit with Arthur Smith because Smith once coached with Matt LaFleur is ... questionable to say the least.

AFC South

Texans: Offensive line

The Texans remade their offensive line this offseason, but it's not like they did it with major investments in high-quality players. They tried to attack the issue with volume, but lower-level investments. And that's just not necessarily a recipe for success. The hope is that the O-line won't totally torpedo their chances this season the way it did last year (ask C.J. Stroud how fun it was to play behind that group), but it's entirely possible that the renovation just doesn't take and they're in the same position next offseason.

Colts: Quarterback issues

An Anthony Richardson vs. Daniel Jones quarterback competition wasn't all that inspiring to begin with. But now Jones has to start. What is the best-case scenario with Jones under center, and why do they think they even have access to it? Is it being the 2022 Giants? Is that really desirable? What is the plan here? What are the Colts even trying to accomplish in the big picture other than potentially saving Chris Ballard and Shane Steichen's jobs with a going-nowhere wild card playoff run? And would that even work? I'm skeptical.

Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence ain't it

What if Lawrence, the former No. 1 pick and anointed generational prospect, just isn't ever going to become the type of player we thought he'd be? What if not even Liam Coen, who just coordinated Mayfield to the most productive season of his NFL career, can get similar production out of Lawrence? What if he just is what he's been to date: an average-ish starter who can look good or bad in any given week or any given season? 

Titans: Defensive talent deficiency

Tennessee has really good interior defensive linemen with Jeffery Simmons, T'Vondre Sweat and Sebastian Joseph-Day. It has good safeties with Amani Hooker, Xavier Woods and Quandre Diggs (and maybe Kevin Winston). The talent level everywhere else is ... worrisome, especially if L'Jarius Sneed can't come back and be something like the player he was in Kansas City. Teams are going to be able to attack the perimeter of this Titans defense, and their ability to do so might offset any expected offensive improvement they get from their O-line makeover and the addition of No. 1 overall pick Cameron Ward.

AFC West

Broncos: Bo Nix regresses

Improvement isn't always linear. Go ask C.J. Stroud. Nix impressed during his rookie season, but he also benefitted from incredible health and pass protection from his offensive line. If things aren't quite so pristine this year, he could be susceptible to pressure. Last season, Nix was just 20th in EPA per dropback when the opponent got pressure on him, and 24th when you exclude scrambles. A situation where he faces more pressure, more consistently could lead to some regression.

Chiefs: Someone knocks them off

When you're Super Bowl or bust, somebody taking you out before you hoist the Lombardi Trophy is considered a disappointment.

Raiders: Lack of defensive talent

The Raiders made a bunch of investments in their offense this offseason, trading for Geno Smith and drafting Ashton Jeanty chief among them. But they lost a bunch of talented players on both levels of their defense, cutting Christian Wilkins and letting players like Tre'von Moehrig and Nate Hobbs leave in free agency. They mostly replaced the back-end players, though we don't yet know to what degree of success. But the defensive front alongside Maxx Crosby doesn't look imposing, and if those guys don't generate a ton of pressure, issues on the back end could creep up and undermine things.

Chargers: Injuries

It's already started for the Chargers. Rashawn Slater is out for the season after suffering a major knee injury during training camp. It seemingly goes this way for this team every single season.