2025 NFL team win totals, odds, picks, best bets: Broncos breakout? Back the Pack after Micah Parsons deal
Our CBSSports.com staff gives its best picks for this season's Over/Under win totals

Ready or not, the NFL is back! The regular season is less than a week away when the Philadelphia Eagles open up Lincoln Financial Field, unveil their newest Super Bowl championship banner, and take on the Dallas Cowboys to get Week 1 off the ground. From there, it'll be a mad dash to Santa Clara for Super Bowl LX, and there will be a lot that goes down between now and then. And we're going to give our best guesses as to how some teams may fare in 2025.
As we do every year, we've corralled our CBS Sports staffers and tasked them with providing their predictions on various topics surrounding the upcoming season. Here, we'll be diving into their best Over/Under win total bets.
Before we get going, here's a look at the panel making their picks: Pete Prisco, Jared Dubin, Josh Edwards, Jordan Dajani, John Breech, Garrett Podell, Zach Pereles, Cody Benjamin, and yours truly.
While we'll list every team and their current Over/Under odds for the season, not every club will be zeroed in by our panel for a best bet. In those cases, we'll provide our leans on their win total. Let's get to it!
NFL odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Arizona Cardinals
- Over 8.5 (-120) | Under 8.5 (+100)
Lean: Over 8.5. There's no denying the talent the Cardinals have on defense, and that's expected to be the team's strength in 2025. First-rounder Walter Nolan will begin the year on PUP, which takes some wind out of their sails, but they still have fellow rookie Will Johnson in the secondary and free agent signee Josh Sweat screaming off the edge. This bet really depends on how you project Kyler Murray and the offense. I like Marvin Harrison Jr. to take a step forward in Year 2, and the likes of Trey McBride and James Conner should make this a serviceable unit that gets to at least nine wins.
Atlanta Falcons
- Over 7.5 (-135) | Under 7.5 (+115)
Lean: Under 7.5. Feels like they may be a year away from true contention. Yes, they have the fourth-easiest schedule in the NFL, but getting to eight wins takes a lot of blind faith in Michael Penix Jr., who is entering his first season as the full-time starter. While Atlanta did double-dip at pass rusher in the first round of the NFL Draft this spring, it's not a guarantee that both come out of the gate firing on all cylinders. This feels like a scrappy 7-10 team in 2025 that'll take serious momentum into 2026.
Baltimore Ravens
- Over 11.5 (-120) | Under 11.5 (+100)
Lean: Over 11.5. This team has gone over this number in each of the last two seasons, and there's an argument to be made that this 2025 version is the best we've seen. Lamar Jackson is in the prime of his career, has a good (albeit aging) collection of skill position players, and the defense only got better with rookie additions like safety Malakai Starks and Mike Green.
Buffalo Bills
- Over 11.5 (-160) | Under 11.5 (+135)
Prisco: Over 13.5 (+230). That seems crazy, but they play in a soft division and the schedule is favorable. They play most of their tough games at home and their longest road trip is to Houston. Oh, and they are loaded with the MVP at quarterback.
Sullivan: Over 11.5 (-16). Buffalo has itself a cupcake schedule in 2025 that ranks as the fifth-easiest in the NFL. Even their tough matchups like the Ravens (Week 1), Chiefs (Week 9), and Eagles (Week 17) are all at home. We know that Josh Allen will keep the offense humming at an elite level, and if the defense can play better situationally (third-worst on third down in 2024) with their new additions, this could be the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
Carolina Panthers
- Over 6.5 (-130) | Under 6.5 (+110)
Prisco: Under 7.5 (-150). I'm not buying into the Bryce Young hype just yet. Plus, they are the third team in their division in my eyes. They will have a tough time getting to eight victories.
Chicago Bears
- Over 8.5 (+135) | Under (-160)
Prisco: Under 7.5 (+110). This team is a year away. It's crazy to think that Ben Johnson will step in and fix all the issues in one season. Plus, the division is brutal.
Cincinnati Bengals
- Over 10.5 (+155) | Under 10.5 (-180)
Lean: Under 10.5. They paid Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Great. They had a kumbaya moment with Trey Hendrickson. Wonderful. Are they better? Defensively, I have my doubts. The starting defense let up points on every dive they were on the field this preseason, which should send alarm bells off in Cincy. They'll put up points in a prolific fashion, but they still might be able to stop anyone on defense.
Cleveland Browns
- Over 4.5 (-140) | Under 4.5 (+120)
Lean: Under 4.5. Cleveland is saddled with the second-toughest schedule in the entire NFL. Joe Flacco may be good for a win or two, but the ceiling isn't high for the Browns in 2025, and they could find themselves with the No. 1 overall pick when it's all said and done.
Dallas Cowboys
- Over 7.5 (+115) | Under 7.5 (-135)
Podell: Cowboys: Under 7.5 (-135) The Cowboys' defensive expected points added (EPA) per play when Micah Parsons was on the field was the best in the NFL since 2021. When off the field in that same span, Dallas has the league's worst EPA per play, per CBS Sports Research. That data suggests Jerry Jones made the wrong move in trading him to the Green Bay Packers. Quarterback Dak Prescott could very well put up video game numbers throwing to All-Pro wide receiver CeeDee Lamb and the explosive George Pickens. However, their defense will likely struggle to get after quarterbacks without Parsons. This defense could be rough in 2025.
Denver Broncos
- Over 9.5 (+100) | Under 9.5 (-120)
Sullivan: Over 9.5 (+100). Can Bo Nix and Sean Payton do it again? Last year, this was a 10-7 squad that surprisingly splashed into the playoff picture in Year 1 of Nix. Heading into his sophomore season, Denver has improved the roster around Nix with the likes of Evan Engram and a revamped backfield with rookie RJ Harvey. That's not to mention they also boast arguably the best defense in the NFL. They have the easiest strength of schedule in the AFC West, and I'm banking on a repeat 10-win season from Nix and Co.
Detroit Lions
- Over 10.5 (+120) | Under 10.5 (-140)
Lean: Under 10.5. Detroit could very well be the No. 1 seed in the NFC again and claim the division because they are oozing with talent. However, the loss of both coordinators, Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn, has to count for something, right? The Lions also face the third-toughest schedule in the NFL this season, and play in a gauntlet of a division in the NFC North. 10-7 could still claim them the division crown, but it'll be a rock fight for Dan Campbell's club all year.
Green Bay Packers
- Over 10.5 (+105) | Under 10.5 (-125)
Podell: Packers Over 10.5. The Pack is back. The NFL's youngest team finally added a first-round wide receiver in the speedy Matthew Golden, and all reports out of Green Bay make it seem like he's ready to be the team's WR1 early on. Matt LaFleur's squad was both a top 10 offense (27.1 points per game, eighth-best in the NFL) and a top 10 defense (19.9 points per game allowed, sixth-best in the NFL) last season, and now they have continuity in defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley's scheme entering a second season with his playbook. Oh, and Hafley's top 10 defense just added All-Pro edge rusher Micah Parsons in a trade with the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday. Parsons' career comparison through his first four seasons played is literally Hall of Famer Reggie White: they are the only two players with at least 12 sacks in each of their first four seasons played. Let the good times roll in Green Bay.
Houston Texans
- Over 9.5 (+105) | Under 9.5 (-125)
Edwards: Over 9.5. Houston had 10 wins during a season many considered a disappointment. They have suffered multiple unfortunate injuries, but I have faith C.J. Stroud can do enough in combination with an improved defense. The only concern is that I also like the Jaguars and could justify three Overs within this division, but it is not going to work out for someone.
Pereles: Over 9.5. Almost everything went wrong for Houston's offense last year: Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell both suffered season-ending injuries, Nico Collins missed time as well, the offensive line was putrid ... and the Texans still won 10 games. Expect a much better offensive scheme, a C.J. Stroud rebound and one of the league's defenses to carry them to at least 10 wins; I'd consider OVER 10.5 (+175) as well.
Benjamin: Over 8.5 (-160). Houston is always relatively overlooked in the national conversation, and the Texans are even more of an afterthought following C.J. Stroud's disappointing sophomore dip. The O-line is still a question, but a rebound feels inevitable. DeMeco Ryans' defense remains scary. And the division is always ripe for the taking.
Indianapolis Colts
- Over 7.5 (+105) | Under 7.5 (-125)
Dubin: Under 7.5. I cannot in good conscience tell you that a Daniel Jones-quarterbacked team should win 8 or more games. It seems more likely that the Colts end up shuffling back and forth between Jones and Anthony Richardson, losing plenty of games along the way.
Edwards: Over 7.5. Indianapolis reached eight wins last season despite oscillating back and forth between Anthony Richardson and Joe Flacco. Daniel Jones is not a game changer, but he brings a more stable style of play that should allow the team to compete in a winnable AFC South during a make-or-break year for leadership.
Breech: Over 7.5. I'm not saying I trust Daniel Jones, but I do trust Shane Steichen to get the most out of his starting quarterback. This team won nine games in 2023 with Gardner Minshew starting for most of the season. They had an ugly QB situation in 2024 and Steichen still managed to lead the team to eight wins. In 2025, the Colts have one of the easiest strength of schedules in the NFL. They have an underrated defense and an offense that could surprise some people as long as Jones doesn't turn the ball over five times per game.
Pereles: Under 5.5 (+240). I do not trust Daniel Jones, and I do not trust a coaching staff that would choose to trust Daniel Jones.
Jacksonville Jaguars
- Over 7.5 (-125) | Under 7.5 (+105)
Lean: Under 7.5. Another team that feels a year away. Liam Coen should improve an offense that is loaded with talent, but can Trevor Lawrence stay healthy? Their schedule could certainly help them get to eight wins, but this is a team that should have more attention paid to them in 2026 after they establish their foundation.
Kansas City Chiefs
- Over 11.5 (+110) | Under 11.5 (-130)
Dubin: Over 11.5. Kansas City has won 12-plus games in six of Patrick Mahomes' seven seasons as the starter. I continue to list the Over for the Chiefs as my favorite bet in this exercise, basically every year. It's like they're giving money away.
Las Vegas Raiders
- Over 7.5 (+150) | Under 7.5 (-175)
Lean: Under 7.5. Are they better? Yes. Are they so much better that they'll double their win total from last year? Doesn't feel like it. Las Vegas will be a tougher out than in years past with Geno Smith and Pete Carroll at the helm, but they play in a tough division with the Chiefs, Broncos, and Chargers are better on paper.
Los Angeles Chargers
- Over 9.5 (+105) | Under 9.5 (-125)
Pereles: Under 8.5 (+135). The Chargers finished with the NFL's top-scoring defense last year, despite ranking 11th in yards allowed. Red zone defense is notoriously fickle from year to year, so a regression there wouldn't surprise me. Add in Rashawn Slater's season-ending injury, and I think the Chargers end up at the bottom of a competitive AFC West after arriving a year early in 2024.
Los Angeles Rams
- Over 10.5 (+135) | Under 10.5 (-160)
Dajani: Over 9.5 (-125). If you're scared of Matthew Stafford's back holding up, I understand why you would want to avoid this bet. But Stafford getting hurt is the only way this doesn't hit. Davante Adams, opposite of Puka Nacua, is going to be fun to watch, and then the Rams have an incredibly talented defense that was virtually historic last year. Remember, this team came just one or two plays away from hosting the NFC Championship game.
Miami Dolphins
- Over 7.5 (-110) | Under 7.5 (-110)
Lean: Under 7.5 (-110). This is a team that feels like it's at an inflection point. If they struggle to meet expectations in 2025, there could be wholesale changes. The secondary is banged up, there are questions along the offensive line, and there's always a concern for Tua Tagovailoa's health. The bottom could fall out from under Miami in 2025, especially as division rivals like the Patriots and Jets are on the upswing, along with Buffalo.
Minnesota Vikings
- Over 9.5 (+115) | Under 9.5 (-135)
Lean: Under 9.5. J.J. McCarthy is one of the biggest wild cards of the entire 2025 season. The Vikings must feel confident in their former first-round pick as they let Sam Darnold leave in free agency and handed over the keys to the franchise to McCarthy this offseason. Does he get them to the same heights as last year, however? To me, this feels like a one-step back to take two giant steps forward situation, meaning this could be a somewhat muted year for Minnesota as they continue to develop McCarthy.
New England Patriots
- Over 8.5 (+110) | Under 8.5 (-130)
Sullivan: Over 8.5 (+110). Yeah, yeah, call it a homer pick if you want, but it's hard not to like what New England did this offseason. Mike Vrabel installed as their new head coach should raise the floor from the 4-13 campaigns they endured the last two years. They also improved the roster on both sides of the ball, headlined by Milton Williams on defense and Stefon Diggs on offense. More importantly, this pick rests on Drake Maye taking a Year 2 leap, which I expect he will with a better O-line in front of him. Oh, and the Patriots have the second-easiest schedule in the NFL in 2025.
New Orleans Saints
- Over 4.5 (-130) | Under 4.5 (+110)
Dajani: Under 5.5 (-165). I think New Orleans is the worst team in the NFL entering this season, and we will see both Spencer Rattler and Tyler Shough start games. It appears the rest of the NFC South is ascending, while New Orleans is descending.
New York Giants
- Over 5.5 (-105) | Under 5.5 (-115)
Lean: Under 5.5. No team has a harder schedule in 2025 than the Giants. It's a who's who of playoff contenders week after week. Right out of the gate, they have back-to-back road contests with the Commanders and Cowboys before being welcomed home to MetLife Stadium by Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Woof. There's little reprieve after that, as they have a stretch where they face the Eagles twice, the Broncos (in Denver), and the 49ers over the course of a month. Wins will be few and far between for New York.
New York Jets
- Over 5.5 (-145) | Under 5.5 (+125)
Lean: Over 5.5. Given the circumstances, I liked the dice roll of signing Justin Fields this offseason. First-year head coach Aaron Glenn knows firsthand about Fields' ability, having coached against him when he was the quarterback of the Bears and the defensive coordinator of the Lions. That has to count for something. If Fields develops even a touch as a passer, the Jets have enough talent at the skill positions to complement a fierce defense.
Philadelphia Eagles
- Over 11.5 (+115) | Under 11.5 (-135)
Lean: Under 11.5. Even if Philly does go Under here, 11 wins could very well win the NFC East. But look at this schedule. It's the fourth-toughest in the NFL and features trips to Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Green Bay, and Buffalo.
Pittsburgh Steelers
- Over 8.5 (+100) | Under 8.5 (-120)
Breech: Over 8.5. In 2022, Mike Tomlin won nine games with a combination of Kenny Pickett and Mitchell Trubisky playing quarterback for him. In 2023, he won 10 games with Pickett, Trubisky and Mason Rudolph all starting multiple games during the season. In 2024, he led the team to 10 wins with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields both starting at least six games. Even at 41, Aaron Rodgers is better than all of those quarterbacks. I'll take the over here.
Podell: Over 9.5 (+175). The Pittsburgh Steelers return much of a defensive core that produced a top 10 scoring defense (20.4 points per game allowed, eighth-fewest in the NFL) with seven-time Pro Bowler Jalen Ramsey trading places with five-time Pro Bowler Minkah Fitzpatrick. Offensively, the Steelers lost young deep threat George Pickens, but they replaced him with two-time Pro Bowl wideout DK Metcalf and now have Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. Rodgers didn't have a great overall season with the New York Jets in 2024. Still, he finished decently, throwing 18 touchdowns to only four interceptions in the last 10 games, the seventh-best touchdown-to-interception ratio in that span. The further removed Rodgers is from the torn Achilles, the better he could play.
San Francisco 49ers
- Over 10.5 (-110) | Under 10.5 (-110)
Lean: Over 10.5. No team has an easier schedule in the NFL this season than the Niners in 2025. Not only is the path easier, but they should also see some positive regression in the injury department after being ravaged last season. Yes, they've seen an exodus of key players, but Brock Purdy, Trent Williams, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey still reside in the Bay Area and should produce an elite offense. Meanwhile, don't sleep on what the return of defensive coordinator Robert Saleh could do to that unit.
Seattle Seahawks
- Over 8.5 (+115) | Under 8.5 (-135)
Edwards: Over 8.5. Seattle, in theory, has improved its defense. The offensive line should be improved enough to offset the loss of Geno Smith and I believe Mike Macdonald to be one of the better coaches in the league.
Benjamin: Over 7.5 (-145). Look, Sam Darnold's Vikings finale was utterly deflating. He also launched 30 scores in 2024. His Seattle setup may not be nearly as good, but is it that far off, especially when you factor in Mike Macdonald's defense? In a wide-open NFC West, it's not hard to envision them right back in the wild-card mix.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Over 9.5 (+100) | Under 9.5 (-120)
Lean: Over 9.5. There's no denying that the Bucs have the most talented roster in the NFC South and should be a shoo-in to win that division again. They also boast a top-10 easiest schedule in the league in 2025, so, as long as the offense stays healthy, they should be able to get to 10 wins.
Tennessee Titans
- Over 5.5 (-140) | Under 5.5 (+120)
Lean: Over 5.5. Has there been a more slept-on No. 1 overall quarterback than Cam Ward? This preseason, the Miami product did flash his potential, and should be worlds better than what Tennessee was getting at the quarterback position a year ago. With an improved offensive line and the eighth-easiest schedule in the NFL, I think the Titans surprise folks and get to 10 wins while Ward wins Offensive Rookie of the Year (+300).
Washington Commanders
- Over 9.5 (-105) | Under 9.5 (-115)
Lean: Over 9.5. This one is a little iffy. Washington had six wins last season in games where they were either tied or trailing in the final 10 seconds of regulation. There could be some regression there. That said, they also improved the offense with Laremy Tunsil at left tackle and deepened the receiver room with Deebo Samuel. If you think Jayden Daniels avoids a sophomore slump, take the over. If you think those last-second wins are fewer are further between, you may find their +102 odds to miss the playoffs appealing.