NFL receiver/tight end prop cheat sheet: Terry McLaurin, Brian Thomas Jr. among best bets for Week 1

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As anyone who bets knows (or should know), lines are highly fluid and it is likely that by the time you read this, the odds presented here will have changed. If the lines have moved in your favor, good for you. If they moved towards our recommended side, then it's just a reminder to keep up with our latest picks at the blog.

Here, we'll take a look at some of the best NFL player prop bets according to value derived from the projection model for receivers and tight ends in Week 1.

Brian Thomas Jr. Anytime Touchdown (+130, DraftKings)

Thomas Jr. scored in nine of his 17 games as a rookie and the Panthers allowed 31.4 points per game a year ago. He's projected for 0.9 touchdowns because Trevor Lawrence is -110 to go Over 1.5 TDs and Thomas Jr. accounted for 62.6% of his team's receiving touchdowns as a rookie. 

Travis Hunter could account for a big chunk of receiver stats right off the bat but three top pass catchers from Week 1 last season for the Jags (Evan Engram, Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis) are all gone. Even if you replace the loss of targets with a ~20% share for Hunter, it still leaves Thomas Jr. with his normal share.

Hunter Henry Over 3.5 Receptions (+130, BetMGM)

From late October to late December, Henry went over 3.5 receptions in eight of nine games. He averaged 3.9 receptions per game last season. We are projecting him for four receptions in Week 1. The Patriots fanbase is in love with Drake Maye and there's an assumption he will be a star in Year 2. Last year's second-round pick Ja'Lynn Polk did nothing as a rookie and is out for the season. Who knows what Stefon Diggs can do coming off an ACL injury he suffered in Houston a year ago? The other top receivers are Demario Douglas and Mack Hollins.

Even if Austin Hooper gets targets as the second tight end, I think New England could play plenty of two tight end sets a la the Ravens. That gives Henry plenty of snaps and in turn, opportunities to make plays.

Brandin Cooks Over 14.5 Receiving Yards (-110, BetMGM)

Cooks is at the end of his career, but a line at 14.5 is insulting. Spencer Rattler is not a good quarterback but that might be a good thing for this prop. The Saints will likely need to pass all game to give themselves a chance, which is why Rattler had 42 and 36 pass attempts in his last two games last season. He completed an average of 23 passes in these games. Rattler's problem is he completes a handful of passes to his opponents.

Cooks went Over this line in nine of his 10 games. He has never averaged under 10 yards per reception so he could hit the Over with just one catch. He is the third receiver behind Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, who are both injury prone. And Shaheed is more of a deep threat than a chain mover.

Calvin Austin III Over 2.5 Receptions (+140, Caesars)

Austin is the second receiver behind DK Metcalf and above Roman Wilson, who had zero catches as a rookie, Scott Miller, who had five receptions in 2024 and Ben Skowronek who also had five. Aaron Rodgers' pass completions prop line is 19.5 and Metcalf's receptions prop line is 4.5. Who is going to catch the 15 other passes? Austin, whose only negative is his small stature, could be in line for 20% of the receptions this season. The model projects him for three catches.

Terry McLaurin Anytime Touchdown (+130, DraftKings)

The contract dispute is in the past. Jayden Daniels is projected for two passing touchdowns and McLaurin accounted for 52% of his team's receiving scores a year ago. His 0.76 TDs per simulation implies an over 60% hit rate, so we'd set the line at closer to -160. He had a touchdown in 12 of 20 games last season. He had two scores against the Giants last season. All the numbers indicate at least a 50% chance he scores in Week 1 and we're getting solid value at this line.

Cooper Kupp Over 3.5 Receptions (-115, Fanatics)

Kupp was a clear WR2 last season to Puka Nacua and still had four or more receptions in nine of his 14 games. He is an injury risk who fades late in seasons at this point, which is why he ended with a 4-1 stretch of Under 3.5 catches. However, he was 8-1 on Overs to start the season. His yards per reception is way down compared to his peak but his ability to catch four to six passes is still a proverbial lock.

Other Model Values

These are our latest Week 1 projections in comparison to the betting lines at the time we published. When there is projection value,  we list the full bet and the sportsbook with the best line. You can use this to see if the model agrees with your personal best bets.