One of the best things about the NFL is that it's hard to stay bad for long. The league is built on parity, which is a big reason why the NFL is one of the most unpredictable sports on the planet.
If your favorite team finished at the bottom of its division last year, that doesn't really matter, because the NFL is set up so that even the bad teams can quickly turn things around. Going from worst-to-first is something that happens almost EVERY season in the NFL.
Since 2015, 12 teams have gone worst-to-first by winning a division title one year after finishing in last place. That's an average of just over one per year. That average has actually held pretty firm over the past two decades: Since the NFL expanded to 32 teams in 2002, 31 teams have gone from worst to first, an average of 1.29 teams per year over that 24-season span.
Basically, NFL history says at least one team will go from worst to first this year. With that in mind, we're going to rank the eight last-place finishers from 2025 to find out who has the best chance to pull off a worst-to-first run in 2026.
(All division odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)
8. Cardinals
2025 record: 3-14
Odds to win NFC West: +10000
The Cardinals are in what feels like an impossible situation this year: They have a new head coach, they're dealing with QB drama, and they're stuck playing in the most difficult division in the NFL. And really, that last point is why I don't think they have any chance to go from worst-to-first. The NFC West has three Super Bowl contenders -- the Rams, Seahawks and 49ers -- and then there's Arizona. Based on that fact alone, it's hard to imagine a scenario where the Cardinals win the division or even finish above .500, for that matter.
You never want to say that a team has a zero percent chance of winning their division in the always unpredictable NFL, but it really feels like the Cardinals have a zero percent chance of winning the division. Even the oddsmakers have given up on Arizona: The Cards are a 100-to-1 long shot to win the NFC West, which is basically unheard of. To put that in perspective, 25 of the NFL's 32 teams have better odds of winning the SUPER BOWL than the Cardinals have of winning their division.
Since I ranked the Cards last on this list, that basically means I see no path for them to win the division. As a matter of fact, I'm so confident they won't finish in first place that if they do, I will buy a Carson Beck jersey and wear it every Sunday for an entire year. Someone, please, remember to throw that back in my face if they win the division.
Fun fact: Over the past 29 years, the Cardinals have finished in last a total of 12 times and they have failed to go from worst to first even a single time during that span, so I wouldn't bet on it happening this year. Not only have they not gone worst-to-first recently, but they've never done it in their franchise history, which dates back to 1920.
7. Raiders
2025 record: 3-14
Odds to win AFC West: +2000
Let me start this off by saying that I actually like what the Raiders did this offseason and that starts with the hiring of Klint Kubiak.
No one thought the Seahawks were going to win the Super Bowl last year and a big reason they were able to do that is because of Kubiak's work with the offense in Seattle. After helping the Seahawks take the NFC West last season, Kubiak knows what it takes to win a title in a tough division and he'll have to use that knowledge if he wants to lead the Raiders to the top of the AFC West. Unfortunately, I don't think that's going to happen this year.
This team is slowly putting the pieces together and I do think Kubiak will eventually turn things around. The Raiders made several smart moves in free agency, including the signings of Tyler Linderbaum, Nakobe Dean and Kwity Paye. They also used the first overall pick on Fernando Mendoza and although he probably won't be the Week 1 starter, he's in a spot where he can develop quickly since he'll be learning from Kubiak.
The problem for the Raiders is that the AFC West is absolutely stacked. The Broncos and Chargers are both coming off a 2025 season where they each made the playoffs and then if you throw in the fact that it's almost impossible to imagine the Chiefs having another down year, that doesn't leave much room for the Raiders. Mendoza wasn't even alive the last time the Raiders won the AFC West, and I don't think he'll see his first title in 2026.
Fun fact: The Raiders have never gone from worst to first, and based on how stacked the AFC West is this year, that drought probably isn't going to end in 2026.
6. Browns
2025 record: 5-12
Odds to win AFC North: +2100
The Browns were the hardest team to rank on this list. I thought about putting them at the bottom, but the Cardinals exist, so that wasn't going to happen. I thought about putting them seventh, but I eventually talked myself into sixth for two reasons.
The first reason is Todd Monken. The Browns' new head coach knows the division well. He spent the past three seasons as the offensive coordinator in Baltimore, so he knows what he's up against in the AFC North. With three new head coaches in the division, being familiar with your opponents can certainly be an advantage, so that's one thing that Monken has over both Jesse Minter and Mike McCarthy.
The other reason the Browns are here is because of their defense. Yes, they lost Myles Garrett, but they did get Jared Verse in that trade, and with him in the lineup, I don't think we'll see a huge drop off from what the Browns did last year. As a matter of fact, I could see a situation where the Browns' defense is actually better than it was last season.
Now, let's get to the negatives. They're going to hold a QB battle between a guy (Deshaun Watson) who hasn't taken a regular-season snap in almost two years and a second-year player (Shedeur Sanders), who led the NFL in interceptions per game last season (Minimum: six starts). Not only do you have an uninspiring QB battle, but the Browns have five new starters on the offensive line and if they don't gel quickly, things could get ugly.
The Browns haven't won a division title since 1989 and I do think they could surprise some people by winning eight or nine games this season, but I don't think that will be enough to win the division.
Fun fact: Since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970, the Browns have won five division titles, but they've never gone from worst to first and it's probably a safe bet that drought will continue in 2026.
5. Titans
2025 record: 3-14
Odds to win AFC South: +800
This team hit rock bottom last season under Brian Callahan, and now, it's up to new coach Robert Saleh to turn things around. Saleh is a defensive-minded coach, so you probably won't be surprised to hear that he completely revamped that side of the ball. He upgraded at almost every position with the additions of DE Jermaine Johnson, DE John Franklin Meyers, DT Jordan Elliott, CB Alontae Taylor and CB CorDale Flott. They also used a second-round pick on linebacker Anthony Hill.
On the other side of the ball, the Titans hired Brian Daboll as the offensive coordinator and he'll be in charge of making sure that Cam Ward makes some huge improvements in his second year. The Titans added several weapons for Ward, including Wan'Dale Robinson and Carnell Tate, who was selected with the fourth overall pick in the draft.
On paper, this team is absolutely better than it was last year, but that's not saying much, considering the Titans won just three games in 2025. The Titans still aren't a great team by any means, but the good news is that you don't have to be great to win the AFC South. The Jaguars won the division last season, and they're proof that you can make a quick turnaround in the AFC South. The Jags went just 4-13 in 2024, then hired a new head coach (Liam Coen), who led them to a 13-4 record and a division title in 2025. The Titans will be hoping that Saleh can pull off something similar in his first season.
Although the Titans are improved, this is a team that went 0-6 in the division last year and it still feels like they haven't quite caught up with the Texans or Jags. This is a team that could certainly double its win total from last season, but it's hard to see them winning the division.
Fun fact: If history is any indication, the Titans are in trouble, because they've NEVER gone worst to first in franchise history, and that even includes their 37 seasons as the Houston Oilers. Since moving to Tennessee in 1997, they've never even made the playoffs in a season after they finished in last place.
4. Jets
2025 record: 3-14
Odds to win AFC East: +1900
Well, well, well, look who's back in New York: Gen Smith. The QB's career has officially come full circle. Thirteen years after being drafted by the Jets, Smith is back with his old team. If you don't remember his first stint with the Jets, it's probably because there's not very much to remember: He went 12-18 as a starter and got punched in the face by a teammate.
The play of Smith is going to determine whether the Jets are going to be a huge surprise this year or a giant flop. Smith struggled last season in Las Vegas, but before that, he had several good seasons in Seattle. If the Seahawks version of Smith shows up, this team could make things interesting.
This offense is pretty solid when you look at the talent: Not only do they have Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall, but they just drafted two rookies who should be able to contribute right away (TE Kenyon Sadiq and WR Omar Cooper Jr.).
The Jets also have a totally revamped defense with the additions of players like Minkah Fitzpatrick, T'Vondre Sweat, Joseph Ossai, Nahshon Wright, Demario Davis, David Onyemata and rookie David Bailey. This will give Aaron Glenn, a defensive-minded coach, the chance to mold the unit into something better than what the Jets had last season.
The Jets really didn't have a choice but to completely overhaul their defense, because they were putrid last year. During the 2025 season, the Jets became the first team in NFL history to record zero interceptions, and they gave up the second-most points in the NFL. That's not a good combination.
The Patriots pulled off a worst-to-first run in the AFC East last season, and if Smith and the defense both step up, the Jets might be able to stay in the division title hunt until late in the season, which would be a moral victory for a team that hasn't won the AFC East since 2002.
Fun fact: The Jets have the NFL's longest active playoff drought: They haven't been to the postseason since 2010.
3. Giants
2025 record: 4-13
Odds to win NFC East: +600
John Harbaugh is the fifth head coach the Giants have hired since 2016, and based on his track record, they might have finally gotten a hiring right. Sure, Harbaugh never reached the Super Bowl with Lamar Jackson, but he did lead the Ravens to the playoffs six times over the past eight seasons. To put that in perspective, the Giants went to the postseason just once in that same span.
Since Tom Coughlin stepped down following the 2015 season, the Giants haven't been able to find a coach who could create a winning culture, but Harbaugh feels like the guy who could change that. And no, I'm not going to judge him for giving the least inspiring training camp speech of all time.
Hard watch John…..yikes 😂😂😂 pic.twitter.com/lMowLcICZQ
— 𝙕𝙖𝙘𝙝🦦® (@NewEraZach) July 22, 2026
Harbaugh poached half of Baltimore's roster, bringing several Ravens players to New York with him, including Isaiah Likely, Patrick Ricard and Jordan Stout.
If the Giants are going to have any chance of winning the division, they're going to need Jaxson Dart to take a huge step forward and he's going to have to do it while learning a new playbook that's being implemented by new offensive coordinator Matt Nagy. Bringing in Nagy certainly feels like a boom or bust decision: It could end up working out or it could end up derailing the season.
Of course, even if the offense is bad, the Giants could still contend, and that's because they have a scary defensive front. This is a team that could win games 13-10 if that's what they're forced to do.
The Giants have a chance to make a huge statement in Week 1 against the Cowboys and if they can pull off an upset in that game, it would certainly give them some confidence going forward. The Giants actually have a friendly schedule in the first half of the season: Starting in Week 3, the Giants will get to play four straight games against teams that won six games or less last season and three of those games are at home (Titans, Cardinals, at Commanders, Saints). If the Giants can earn three or more wins in that stretch, that might get everyone to start believing that Harbaugh can get things turned around in just one season.
The Giants do have some tough games in the first half of the season, with Week 2 against the Rams and Week 7 against the Texans, but both teams will be playing an international game the week before facing New York, so the Giants could catch them sleeping.
The Giants could certainly make things interesting in the division race, but the Cowboys and Eagles are the two best teams in the division and it feels like the NFC East crown will go to one of them.
Fun fact: If anyone can pull off a quick turnaround, it's Harbaugh. After watching the 5-11 Ravens finish last in 2007, Harbaugh took over as coach in Baltimore in 2008 and immediately led them to a playoff berth after a 2008 season in which they went 11-5.
2. Lions
2025 record: 9-8
Odds to win NFC North: +180
The Lions are favored to win the NFC North this year, but that wasn't enough to convince me to put them at the top of this list. The problem is that I have a few concerns about this team and those kept me from putting Detroit in the top spot.
For one, this team went 2-4 in divisional games last season, including a 23-10 loss to the Vikings in a must-win Week 17 game. Did I mention that Max Brosmer was the starting QB for Minnesota in that game? Because Max Brosmer was the starting QB for Minnesota in that game. The Lions desperately needed to beat the Vikings to keep their playoff hopes alive, but instead, they choked.
This team went 8-1 last year when they scored 34 points or more, but just 2-7 when they scored 33 points or less. That's not sustainable. The Lions did make a few small moves this offseason -- like adding center Cade Mays, DE D.J. Wonnum and CB Roger McCreary -- but this team is largely running it back with most of the same roster they had last year and they barely finished over .500 last year.
OK, so I just read over those last two paragraphs that I wrote and they sound negative, so let me end on a positive: The Lions still have one of the most electrifying offenses in the NFL and that unit should be able to carry them through the season. This team will almost certainly finish above .500 and will absolutely compete for the division title, but the NFC North is a loaded division and it won't be easy to win.
Fun fact: The Lions have only gone worst-to-first one time in franchise history and that came all the way back in 1993.
1. Saints
2025 record: 6-11
Odds to win NFC South: +265
Surprise, surprise: The Lions are NOT at the top of this list and that's because the Saints stole their spot. Putting New Orleans in the top spot came down to two things: They have the second-easiest strength of schedule and I think they're in the most winnable division. The Saints only finished two games out of first place last season and they might have won the division if they had handed the starting QB job to Tyler Shough earlier in the year.
Shough started nine games last season and seemed to get better each week, which was a big reason the Saints won four of their last five games. They also swept the Panthers last year, the team that went on to win the NFC South.
The Saints are doing everything they can to put Shough in a position to succeed this year: They added the top guard in free agency (David Edwards), they brought in one of the top running backs in free agency (Travis Etienne) and they used the eighth overall pick on receiver Jordyn Tyson.
As for the strength of schedule, the Saints caught a huge break this year. Due to the scheduling formula, every team plays 14 similar games, but they do play three opponents that no one else in the division will play, and that's where the big advantage comes in for New Orleans.
Here are the three unique opponents that each NFC South team will face in 2026:
- Saints: Raiders, Cardinals, at Giants
- Falcons: Chiefs, 49ers, at Commanders
- Buccaneers: Chargers, Rams, at Cowboys
- Panthers: Broncos, Seahawks, at Eagles
Looking at that list, the Saints feel like the only team with a chance to go 3-0 in their three games, and when you're in a tight division race, that could be the difference in who wins the division.
There are no great teams in the NFC South this year: All four teams feel pretty even, which is why it feels like the Saints have a legitimate chance to take home the division title.
Fun fact: The last time the Saints went from worst to first came in 2009 and they also won the Super Bowl, making them one of just two teams -- along with the 2017 Eagles -- over the past 20 years to win a Super Bowl in the same season where they went worst to first.
Super Bowl fun fact: Of the 31 teams that have gone worst to first since 2002, five of them have made it to the Super Bowl, so although it's possible, it's definitely not likely. That list of five teams includes the 2025 Patriots, who reached the Super Bowl after finishing 4-13 in 2024.
