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NFL Picks - Week 9

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Odds and lines are subject to change.

Today's Top Free Expert Picks

  • expert headshot
    Mike Tierney
    +610
    (71%)
    12-5 in Last 17 NFL Picks
    JAC @ BAL • Thu 8:15pm
    JAC -8.5
    -105
    Spread
    Picked: Nov 2 @ 12:02pm

    Analysis

    Jacksonville enjoyed a stress-free thrashing of Indianapolis on Sunday and, having come off a bye, should be in fine fettle against a team with one big QB-related migraine. Starter Lamar Jackson is out with a bum thumb, while second-stringer Tyler Huntley appears unlikely with a throbbing toe. Even No. 3 man Joe Fagnano needed treatment during the game and finished largely because the next option was a RB. The Ravens could pick up a veteran, but the short week would give him little time to acclimate regardless of his role. Even were Baltimore at full strength, the Jags are the superior team at this stage of the season. The Ravens’ QB void widens the gap.
  • expert headshot
    David Bearman
    +736
    (65%)
    20-11 in Last 31 NFL Player Props Picks
    JAC @ BAL • Thu 8:15pm
    player headshot
    D. Henry
    Under 70.5
    -109
    Rushing Yards
    Picked: Nov 3 @ 11:26am

    Analysis

    The Jacksonville Jaguars' rush defense has held opponents to a league low 77.4 rushing yards per game. Last year, they also led the NFL, allowing only 85.6 yards per game. Woody Marks, in Week 6 in London, is the only RB to hit his over prop total vs. the Jaguars this season. Meanwhile, Derrick Henry has not broken 70 yards in any of his last three games, averaging only 52 rush yards per game on a 3.5 per carry average.
  • expert headshot
    Larry Hartstein
    +576
    (60%)
    28-19 in Last 47 NFL Player Props Picks
    JAC @ BAL • Thu 8:15pm
    player headshot
    D. Henry
    Over 17.5
    -118
    Carries
    Picked: Nov 3 @ 3:09pm

    Analysis

    The Ravens have no choice but to ride Derrick Henry versus Jacksonville. While the Jaguars allow an NFL-low 77.4 rushing yards per game, they just lost run-stuffing defensive tackle DaVon Hamilton and safety Eric Murray to season-ending injuries. Henry wasn't used much (11 carries, 53 yards; two catches, 7 yards) in Sunday's blowout loss at Buffalo, so he should be fresh for a massive workload at home Thursday. Amid an uncertain QB situation, look for the Ravens to rely on Henry. I would play this Over 18.5 for half a unit.
  • expert headshot
    R.J. White
    +612
    (60%)
    24-16 in Last 40 NFL Player Props Picks
    JAC @ BAL • Thu 8:15pm
    player headshot
    J. Hill
    Over 11.5
    -119
    Receiving Yards
    Picked: Nov 3 @ 3:24pm

    Analysis

    The Ravens are massive home underdogs due to their QB situation, but that should be good news for Hill in the passing game. He had eight targets last week with Joe Fagnano throwing 21 of the team's 25 pass attempts, getting to 20 yards in a game where the Ravens had just 91 passing yards. He also had 26 yards on three catches (four targets) against the Bengals the previous week when the Ravens lost by 22, and it was his fifth straight game with at least three targets. Expect a few checkdowns to go his way here, and I think he has a great chance to get to 20 yards for a third straight game.
  • expert headshot
    Prop Bet Guy
    Doug
    JAC @ BAL • Thu 8:15pm
    player headshot
    M. Andrews
    Under 12.5
    -120
    Longest Reception
    Picked: Nov 3 @ 8:03pm

    Analysis

    DraftKings. Mark Andrews has not recorded a catch for more than 10 yards since Week 2. He’s ceded some routes to the two rookie tight ends, and his average depth of target of 6.6 yards is a career low. Not only are the Jaguars a brutal tight end matchup, but the Ravens will be starting Joe Fagnano at quarterback. The rookie had a 5.3 aDOT last week (54th of 57 QBs this season) and his 6.0 preseason aDOT was in the 18th percentile.

Today's Top Free Player Prop Picks

Built using SportsLine's cutting-edge machine learning, predictions and ratings are generated for each player prop by analyzing historical performance, opponent matchup scores, odds, and prop line movements
  • JAC @ BAL • 8:15 pm
    player headshot
    T. Lawrence
    Over 1.5
    -138
    Pass TDs
    PROJ: 2.3
  • JAC @ BAL • 8:15 pm
    player headshot
    T. Lawrence
    Under 19.5
    -136
    Pass Completions
    PROJ: 14.9
  • JAC @ BAL • 8:15 pm
    player headshot
    T. Lawrence
    Under 237.5
    -114
    Passing Yards
    PROJ: 229.5

Latest News

Betting on the NFL has become a key way for fans to enjoy pro football as sports betting comes online in states across the country. Sportsbooks go all out to bring NFL bettors to their apps through an array of profit boosts, same-game parlays and other promotions. NFL odds are a key part of the discourse around the league, whether it’s the spread, money line or total for a particular game, or futures odds like who wins the championship or Rookie of the Year. Each season culminates in the biggest sports betting event of the year with the Super Bowl.

NFL Sports Betting Terms:

  • The NFL’s popularity in American sports betting and the nature of each team having just one game per week allows for bettors to dive into each matchup and look for ways to predict the outcome better than the sportsbooks. Here are a few terms you need to know if you want to learn more about NFL betting:

  • Lines:

    Lines refer to the odds for any bettable outcome in an NFL game, and they can include spreads, money lines and totals. The most standard NFL lines are spreads, in which one team is given a scoring margin they have to beat in order to win the bet, which is also known as covering. For a three-point spread, the team that’s favored will be listed as -3 and will cover if they can win by four or more points. The underdog will be listed at +3 and will cover if it wins or loses by 1 or 2 points. If the favorite wins by exactly 3, the outcome is a push, and all spread bets will be refunded their original stakes. The money line involves betting on the winner of the game, regardless of the scoring margin. The odds associated with each team will be correlated with the spreads, so that betting on the underdog returns a higher profit on the same amount bet should they pull off the upset. Money line odds tell you either how much you have to bet to win $100 if the listed odds are negative, or how much can be won by betting $100 if the listed odds are positive. A -200 favorite would require a $200 bet to win $100 (or a $2 bet to win $1). A +200 underdog would pay $200 for a $100 wager (or a $1 bet would win $2).

  • Total:

    The total refers to the total number of points scored. The standard total listed for each game allows bettors to take a position on how many points will be scored over the course of the entire game. Bettors also have the option to bet total points in each half or any of the four quarters. Totals will be listed with a line and bettors can choose over or under the total listed, with payouts tied to the odds given for each side of the wager. A total of 45 with an Over of -115 and an Under of -105 will pay out $100 for every $115 wagered on the Over if the final combined score is 46 points or more, while it will pay $100 for every $105 wagered on the Under if the final combined score is 44 or less. A final score of 45 combined points will be graded a push and wagers will be refunded their original stakes.

  • Props:

    Prop betting allows bettors to take positions on any number of outcomes in a game. Those can include player props, like which players will score touchdowns; game props, like whether there will be overtime; or team props, like whether one team will go over or under a point total unique to them. Player props are one of the most popular ways to bet on the NFL and are typically a core component of building same-game parlays. Key players on each team will have lines assigned to statistical outcomes, and bettors can make wagers on whether they will go over or under the line. For example, a quarterback could have props on whether they will have over or under 250.5 passing yards, or 1.5 touchdown passes, or 0.5 interceptions. Game props allow for betting on certain events happening in each game, like each team scoring a touchdown and kicking a field goal. Bettors can also take positions on the winning margin, which team scores 10 points first and other variations of potential outcomes during the course of the game. Team props give bettors the opportunity to focus on one team’s point total, taking it over or under the line the sportsbooks provide. Team totals can also be available for individual halves and quarters of the game. Bigger games may also offer a number of additional team props like total yards gained as a team or sacks recorded.

  • Live Betting:

    Sportsbooks will allow bettors to make live bets during NFL games, adjusting the odds on spreads, totals, money lines and props in real time as each play happens. This allows bettors to take stock of team or player performance as the game goes along and react to certain matchup advantages they identify, injuries that impact the expected performance of the rest of the team, and even to wager on improbable comeback wins at high potential payouts. There is often an opportunity to bet on the outcome of specific drives as well, like wagering on the team that gets the ball first in the second half to score a field goal or a touchdown. Or, if two offenses appear to be struggling, bettors can back the next drive to end in a punt. Live betting also allows bettors to hedge some of their pregame bets to guarantee a profit if their wagers get out to strong starts but they want a bit of insurance. For example, an underdog that is catching 7.5 points on the pregame spread will see that line drop if they get out to an early lead, and if the sportsbooks make that underdog +2.5 on the live line, a bettor can then take the other side and know they’ll win at least one bet with a chance of hitting both if the favorite wins by 3-7 points.

  • Futures Betting:

    Futures betting refers to bets placed on future outcomes rather than a single game. These could involve which team will win a division, conference or championship, or even just whether they will make the playoffs. One popular NFL futures bet is a win total, where bettors can play whether a team will win more (over) or less (under) games than the line given by sportsbooks. A win total of 9.5 will pay to the Over if a team wins 10 or more games, while the Under will cash if that team wins nine or fewer games. Season-long awards also provide a way to take a position on certain players reaching their top outcomes. MVP, Rookie of the Year and Coach of the Year are just some of the awards that could be available at sportsbooks, depending on state regulations. Player props have a futures betting component as well, where bettors are predicting whether a player will finish higher or lower than the line set by the books in a particular statistical category. For example, a running back could be listed with a total of 1000.5 rushing yards or 9.5 rushing touchdowns.