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NFL Picks - Week 6

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Odds and lines are subject to change.

Today's Top Free Expert Picks

  • expert headshot
    Adam Thompson
    +552
    (75%)
    9-3-1 in Last 13 NFL Picks
    WAS @ SF • Mon 8:15pm
    SF -7.5
    -108
    Spread
    Picked: Oct 15 @ 1:48pm

    Analysis

    Despite all the injuries, the 49ers are 5-0, just won in Seattle and have scored 32-35 points three times. That's a tough matchup for a Commanders team that has given up 27 points to Jameis Winston and 30 to Daniel Jones the last two weeks. On the flip side, the Niners have also allowed 14 or fewer points in three of five games. If San Fran takes a lead, chances are it'll only get bigger before it's over.
  • expert headshot
    R.J. White
    +677
    (55%)
    60-49-3 in Last 112 NFL Picks
    WAS @ SF • Mon 8:15pm
    SF -7.5
    -106
    Spread
    Picked: Oct 17 @ 2:41pm

    Analysis

    The 49ers are coming off a massive road divisional win in Seattle, and I was expecting this line to be inflated as a result. That's before we get to the Commanders melting down in the fourth quarter and then blowing the end-of-overtime sequence to tie the Giants. But this line is the same as the lookahead, and I think it's probably three points short of where it should be. Washington has Jayden Daniels to potentialy rally back and get a cover, but the offense around him is beat up and the 49ers haven't seem affected by their rash of injuries on defense. San Francisco's offense is 14 of 16 on red-zone trips, while Washington's defense is 15 of 18 in the red zone.
  • expert headshot
    Alex Selesnick
    +262.5
    (67%)
    4-2 in Last 6 NFL Player Props Picks
    WAS @ SF • Mon 8:15pm
    player headshot
    B. Purdy
    Over 246.5
    -111
    Passing Yards
    Picked: Oct 18 @ 12:15am

    Analysis

    Brock Purdy has been one of the best QBs in the league this season and now he gets a tasty matchup against a Commanders pass funnel ranked 23rd in EPA per dropback having surrendered the 4th most passing yards. This game projects to be high scoring and I expect SF to have trouble running the football here.
  • expert headshot
    Megan Shoup
    +76
    (60%)
    3-2 in Last 5 NFL Player Props Picks
    WAS @ SF • Mon 8:15pm
    player headshot
    G. Kittle
    Over 63.5
    -114
    Receiving Yards
    Picked: Oct 18 @ 12:33am

    Analysis

    We know the 49ers' receivers are very depleted, and now WR Mike Evans is questionable too. Whether Evans plays or not, I love this line for Kittle. He has a great matchup against Washington, which has given up the 4th most receiving yards to tight ends this season. We just saw Isaiah Likely last week in Washington. Outside of last week, when he was sick, and Week 1 in Australia, Kittle has had 70 or more receiving yards in the other three games. He should see a lot of targets in a great matchup. I'll be laddering this up to 80+ receiving yards.
  • expert headshot
    Larry Hartstein
    #2
    +875
    (73%)
    16-6 in Last 22 NFL Player Props Picks
    WAS @ SF • Mon 8:15pm
    player headshot
    G. Kittle
    Over 62.5
    -116
    Receiving Yards
    Picked: Oct 18 @ 10:27am

    Analysis

    In three home games, George Kittle has produced 80. 82 and 70 receiving yards. Now he faces a Commanders defense that gives up the fifth-most receiving yards to opposing tight ends (74.4). Last week, Giants' tight ends torched Washington for 129 receiving yards on 13 catches. Kittle was not on the injury report this week and is primed for a big game on Monday night.

Today's Top Free Player Prop Picks

Built using SportsLine's cutting-edge machine learning, predictions and ratings are generated for each player prop by analyzing historical performance, opponent matchup scores, odds, and prop line movements
  • WAS @ SF • 8:15 pm
    player headshot
    G. Kittle
    Under 66.5
    -113
    Receiving Yards
    PROJ: 46.6
  • WAS @ SF • 8:15 pm
    player headshot
    C. McCaffrey
    Under 39.5
    -113
    Receiving Yards
    PROJ: 25.9
  • WAS @ SF • 8:15 pm
    player headshot
    C. McCaffrey
    Under 4.5
    -102
    Receptions
    PROJ: 4.1

Latest News

Betting on the NFL has become a key way for fans to enjoy pro football as sports betting comes online in states across the country. Sportsbooks go all out to bring NFL bettors to their apps through an array of profit boosts, same-game parlays and other promotions. NFL odds are a key part of the discourse around the league, whether it’s the spread, money line or total for a particular game, or futures odds like who wins the championship or Rookie of the Year. Each season culminates in the biggest sports betting event of the year with the Super Bowl.

NFL Sports Betting Terms:

  • The NFL’s popularity in American sports betting and the nature of each team having just one game per week allows for bettors to dive into each matchup and look for ways to predict the outcome better than the sportsbooks. Here are a few terms you need to know if you want to learn more about NFL betting:

  • Lines:

    Lines refer to the odds for any bettable outcome in an NFL game, and they can include spreads, money lines and totals. The most standard NFL lines are spreads, in which one team is given a scoring margin they have to beat in order to win the bet, which is also known as covering. For a three-point spread, the team that’s favored will be listed as -3 and will cover if they can win by four or more points. The underdog will be listed at +3 and will cover if it wins or loses by 1 or 2 points. If the favorite wins by exactly 3, the outcome is a push, and all spread bets will be refunded their original stakes. The money line involves betting on the winner of the game, regardless of the scoring margin. The odds associated with each team will be correlated with the spreads, so that betting on the underdog returns a higher profit on the same amount bet should they pull off the upset. Money line odds tell you either how much you have to bet to win $100 if the listed odds are negative, or how much can be won by betting $100 if the listed odds are positive. A -200 favorite would require a $200 bet to win $100 (or a $2 bet to win $1). A +200 underdog would pay $200 for a $100 wager (or a $1 bet would win $2).

  • Total:

    The total refers to the total number of points scored. The standard total listed for each game allows bettors to take a position on how many points will be scored over the course of the entire game. Bettors also have the option to bet total points in each half or any of the four quarters. Totals will be listed with a line and bettors can choose over or under the total listed, with payouts tied to the odds given for each side of the wager. A total of 45 with an Over of -115 and an Under of -105 will pay out $100 for every $115 wagered on the Over if the final combined score is 46 points or more, while it will pay $100 for every $105 wagered on the Under if the final combined score is 44 or less. A final score of 45 combined points will be graded a push and wagers will be refunded their original stakes.

  • Props:

    Prop betting allows bettors to take positions on any number of outcomes in a game. Those can include player props, like which players will score touchdowns; game props, like whether there will be overtime; or team props, like whether one team will go over or under a point total unique to them. Player props are one of the most popular ways to bet on the NFL and are typically a core component of building same-game parlays. Key players on each team will have lines assigned to statistical outcomes, and bettors can make wagers on whether they will go over or under the line. For example, a quarterback could have props on whether they will have over or under 250.5 passing yards, or 1.5 touchdown passes, or 0.5 interceptions. Game props allow for betting on certain events happening in each game, like each team scoring a touchdown and kicking a field goal. Bettors can also take positions on the winning margin, which team scores 10 points first and other variations of potential outcomes during the course of the game. Team props give bettors the opportunity to focus on one team’s point total, taking it over or under the line the sportsbooks provide. Team totals can also be available for individual halves and quarters of the game. Bigger games may also offer a number of additional team props like total yards gained as a team or sacks recorded.

  • Live Betting:

    Sportsbooks will allow bettors to make live bets during NFL games, adjusting the odds on spreads, totals, money lines and props in real time as each play happens. This allows bettors to take stock of team or player performance as the game goes along and react to certain matchup advantages they identify, injuries that impact the expected performance of the rest of the team, and even to wager on improbable comeback wins at high potential payouts. There is often an opportunity to bet on the outcome of specific drives as well, like wagering on the team that gets the ball first in the second half to score a field goal or a touchdown. Or, if two offenses appear to be struggling, bettors can back the next drive to end in a punt. Live betting also allows bettors to hedge some of their pregame bets to guarantee a profit if their wagers get out to strong starts but they want a bit of insurance. For example, an underdog that is catching 7.5 points on the pregame spread will see that line drop if they get out to an early lead, and if the sportsbooks make that underdog +2.5 on the live line, a bettor can then take the other side and know they’ll win at least one bet with a chance of hitting both if the favorite wins by 3-7 points.

  • Futures Betting:

    Futures betting refers to bets placed on future outcomes rather than a single game. These could involve which team will win a division, conference or championship, or even just whether they will make the playoffs. One popular NFL futures bet is a win total, where bettors can play whether a team will win more (over) or less (under) games than the line given by sportsbooks. A win total of 9.5 will pay to the Over if a team wins 10 or more games, while the Under will cash if that team wins nine or fewer games. Season-long awards also provide a way to take a position on certain players reaching their top outcomes. MVP, Rookie of the Year and Coach of the Year are just some of the awards that could be available at sportsbooks, depending on state regulations. Player props have a futures betting component as well, where bettors are predicting whether a player will finish higher or lower than the line set by the books in a particular statistical category. For example, a running back could be listed with a total of 1000.5 rushing yards or 9.5 rushing touchdowns.