Week 10 in the NFL is here, and it's the first week where all the players who were dealt at the trade deadline will make their debuts with their new teams. Kirk Cousins is back with the Minnesota Vikings, the Jacksonville Jaguars traded for three new defensive players, including Jordan Davis, and the Kansas City Chiefs gave Patrick Mahomes a new wideout in Josh Downs. Which one of these additions will be most beneficial for a Super Bowl run?
This Sunday, the New England Patriots and Detroit Lions will battle in Germany, the Vikings and Green Bay Packers play an important divisional matchup and the Cincinnati Bengals look to steal the AFC North lead from the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Which teams should you pick in Week 10, and which should you fade? CBS Sports writers Jordan Dajani and Jared Dubin are here to break down the biggest games of the weekend. For clarity, lines for these selections were taken on Nov. 11 over at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Credit to CBS Sports Research
Washington Commanders at New York Giants (-2.5) (TNF)
Dajani (Commanders +2.5): The last time these two teams faced off, they TIED. I'm expecting another close game and may be leaning toward the underdog. Washington played the Los Angeles Rams tough last Sunday and held Matthew Stafford and Co. to 20 points. J.J. McCarthy has looked solid with his new team, but he actually just became the only quarterback in the past 40 seasons to register a win with zero passing touchdowns in four straight starts (dating back to last year). He suffered a hip injury vs. the Philadelphia Eagles, while Cam Skattebo is coming off a hamstring strain. Both will play, but I do wonder how much those issues could linger. The Commanders are 4-0-1 straight up and 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last five against the New York Giants, so I'll take the points here in a potential upset. … Prediction: Commanders 21, Giants 20
Dubin (Giants -2.5): I don't feel particularly comfortable predicting that this Giants team will improve to 6-2-1, but I just don't have much faith that this version of Washington can be all that competitive either. The Commanders can't run the ball right now and have to lean on a passing game that hasn't been all that efficient. The Giants haven't exactly looked like world beaters this year (four of their five wins have come in one-score games), and they definitely didn't look great against the Eagles last week, but I think they can get it done on Thursday night. … Prediction: Giants 20, Commanders 14
New England Patriots vs. Detroit Lions (-2.5) (Munich)
Dajani (Lions -2.5): It's going to take me some time to get over watching the Patriots have 45 points dropped on their face by the Packers. Drake Maye threw three interceptions, and the team could now be down its top two running backs. Rhamondre Stevenson is reportedly dealing with a knee injury, while TreVeyon Henderson experienced an "unusual medical emergency." That leaves the Patriots with Corey Kiner and Lan Larison at running back.
When it comes to the Lions, the question has never been about Jared Goff's offense but about Kelvin Sheppard's defense. No one is talking about it, but this unit has been better in recent weeks. In fact, over this four-game win streak, they rank second in points allowed per game (15.5) and yards allowed per game (286.3). Give me the Lions. … Prediction: Lions 28, Patriots 20
Dubin (Lions -2.5): The Patriots' rapidly thinning skill-position corps gives me some doubt that they can compete with the Lions offensively. Especially after New England's secondary was just lit up by the Packers, I can see Detroit having some passing game success here, bouncing back from a slow last two weeks through the air. And then Jahmyr Gibbs is always liable to go off. Drake Maye is capable of single-handedly carrying an offense against a bad defense, but as Dajani said, Detroit's defense has been playing better as of late. … Prediction: Lions 30, Patriots 21
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Atlanta Falcons
Dajani (Chiefs -3.5): I initially wanted to take the points here with the Atlanta Falcons, but they just got home from Madrid and sent safety Jessie Bates III to the Jaguars at the trade deadline. The Falcons were dominated by the Bengals abroad, 34-17, meaning they have lost back-to-back games by at least 16 points. The Falcons' run defense will have to be ready for Kenneth Walker III, but I think the key to not getting caught by the hook could be Josh Downs, who the Chiefs acquired this week at the trade deadline. He's not some downfield perimeter threat, but is a slot weapon that could spark Patrick Mahomes' passing game. … Prediction: Chiefs 26, Falcons 21
Dubin (Chiefs -3.5): Atlanta has been getting clobbered on the ground lately (123 or more rushing yards allowed in four of the last five games and 200 or more twice) and is about to run into the Kenneth Walker train. The Chiefs finally added someone who can beat man coverage in Josh Downs, and while it might take him a few weeks to get fully up to speed, he should help them immediately in situational football. Plus, the Chiefs' defense has been really good against both the run and the pass. This line seems several points too low. … Prediction: Chiefs 27, Falcons 16
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-3.5)
Dajani (Vikings +3.5): I don't know how much time Kirk Cousins is going to need to get acclimated to his (somewhat) new situation in Minnesota, but I bet this organization and this defense are JUICED to add him to the fold. Kyler Murray and Carson Wentz simply weren't cutting it, and Cousins has actually been playing some good ball out in Vegas. His 20 passing touchdowns rank second in the NFL, and his 260.0 passing yards per game rank eighth. Cousins also has chemistry with Justin Jefferson, whose 98.9 receiving yards per game when catching passes from Cousins are the most by a QB-WR duo all-time. This Packers passing attack has been lethal with Jordan Love playing MVP football and Christian Watson and Matthew Golden looking like prime Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, but give me the Vikings to keep it close. … Prediction: Packers 20, Vikings 17
Dubin (Vikings +3.5): In-division rematches are typically lower scoring than the first matchup, so like Dajani, I see a fairly low-scoring game here despite the fact that the Packers' offense has been a fireworks show and the Vikings just upgraded their quarterback situation. These two defenses are playing extraordinarily well right now, and I think they'll be able to get a handle on what each offense is doing. In the end, I trust Jordan Love more than I do Kirk Cousins, so we'll take the Packers in a close, low-scoring game. … Prediction: Packers 17, Vikings 14
San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) at Dallas Cowboys
Dajani (49ers -3.5): This is historically a great rivalry, but this year it's the Super Bowl favorite vs. a team that struggles with everyone they play. The 49ers have the most games missed due to injury this season (159), but that hasn't stopped them from starting 7-1. Brock Purdy's offense scores touchdowns on 37.2% of its drives, which is the fifth-highest rate by any team since 2000! Last week's win against the Las Vegas Raiders showed how well-rounded the 49ers are, as they scored two passing touchdowns, two rushing touchdowns and a defensive touchdown. … Prediction: 49ers 30, Cowboys 26
Dubin (49ers -3.5): I don't care how many skill-position players the 49ers are missing or how old the ones that are actually healthy are: Kyle Shanahan and Brock Purdy are going to cut through this Dallas defense like a hot knife through butter. The Niners are so efficient on a per-play basis both on the ground and through the air, and the Cowboys make even bad offenses look competent. Dallas might be able to get something going on its side of the ball, especially if George Pickens returns to the lineup, but I don't expect it to be nearly enough to compete with what San Francisco does on offense. … Prediction: 49ers 34, Cowboys 23
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) (SNF)
Dajani (Bengals -3.5): I'll keep saying it, this may be Joe Burrow's year to win MVP. He's accounted for 26 total touchdowns through eight games, while Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins have combined for 47 receptions, 693 yards and eight touchdowns just over the last three games. The Bengals have scored 34 points in three straight games and 30 points in four straight games. The Steelers defeated the Bengals in Pittsburgh in Week 3, 30-27, but the Bengals will even the series on Sunday night. Cincy is 7-2 SU and ATS in its last nine home primetime games. … Prediction: Bengals 30, Steelers 24
Dubin (Steelers +3.5): I'm taking the Bengals to win, but I like the Steelers to keep things uncomfortably close. Pittsburgh always seems to be right in the thick of it in these division games, and the first matchup was decided by only three points. I think the scoring margin is the same here, but with slightly lower scoring, in keeping with the trend of divisional rematches. … Prediction: Bengals 23, Steelers 20
Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens (-4.5) (MNF)
Dajani (Chargers +4.5): This is potentially the worst Monday night game of all time. A winless team that hasn't covered the spread since last year vs. a spiraling team starting a new quarterback. Jacoby Brissett is an upgrade over Joe Fagnano, but how much of an upgrade immediately? I don't have a great read on this matchup, but I'll take Jim Harbaugh to keep things close with his brother's old team. … Prediction: Ravens 20, Chargers 17
Dubin (Chargers +4.5): I don't feel good at all about predicting the Chargers to actually keep a game close, but that's what I'm going to do here. I'm not going as far as predicting that they'll get their first win, but I think they can hang in the game against Jacoby Brissett in his first start with Baltimore. The Ravens' offense should be better than it was with Joe Fagnano under center, but I'm not sure it will fully hit the ground running right away. LA's offense is pretty broken, but the Ravens haven't exactly been great defensively (25th in scoring defense), so the Chargers might be able to put at least some points on the board. … Prediction: Ravens 24, Chargers 20
