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Full disclosure: I did not have a great year with starting pitchers. In my early drafts, I was heavily exposed to George Kirby and Grayson Rodriguez, and I had Framber Valdez, Dylan Cease, and Pablo Lopez on a lot of my teams as "stabilizers." Whoops.

It wasn't all bad, of course – I had Nick Lodolo and Jesus Luzardo as two of my favorite sleepers, and Robbie Ray and Bryan Woo were two of my favorite breakouts. Those worked out, and I had a few other low-end hits as well.

But I also missed out on a lot of the most valuable pitchers who defined the 2025 season. I didn't have Jacob deGrom, Garrett Crochet, or Yoshinobu Yamamoto on any of my teams. I had Cristopher Sanchez on a few teams, which was nice, but he wasn't nearly enough of a priority for me in the end. And I totally missed out on some of those soft-tossing lefties like Andrew Abbott or Matthew Boyd who helped push a lot of teams over the hump. 

Were there lessons to be learned? I've tried to look into it to see if there was something I might have missed in my process, and I'm not sure there's a clear answer there, unfortunately. For example, one question I've asked myself is: "Am I too reliant on peripherals like FIP or xERA, and are those stats proving less predictive/useful in this era of baseball?" In 2025, there were two qualifiers who outperformed their FIP by at least one run, and 12 who did so by at least a half-run ... which turned out to be totally normal numbers for the past five years. So I don't think that's it, especially when the two biggest overperformers were Gavin Williams and Zack Littell -- you'd have trouble finding two more dissimilar pitchers out there.

There were a lot of lefties who unexpectedly thrived in 2025, of course, and I do think there's something to lefties outperforming expectations by virtue of being, for lack of a better word, weird. But when you look at the lefties in the top 10 in ERA and you have Tarik Skubal, Cristopher Sanchez, Garrett Crochet, Max Fried, and Andrew Abbott ... all of whom are pretty dissimilar pitchers. I'm not sure there's a good lesson here beyond maybe giving lefties a small edge relative to their right-handed peers. 

And I look at the misses on Crochet, deGrom, and Yamamoto and think, "Maybe the answer is to be more agnostic about injury/workload concerns and just prioritize skills/talent." Which sounds good if you hit on Crochet or deGrom, but sounds a lot worse if you built your pitching staff around Michael King, Blake Snell, or Spencer Schwellenbach. 

Which is all to say: the answer, as always, is "Draft the right players." Any strategy will look good if you hit on the right players, and in my case, I mostly hit on the wrong players to drag my pitching staffs down. That's not to say there's nothing to be learned, but I'm not ready to overturn my process entirely because of one bad year. 

With that little prologue out of the way, let's get to my recap of the 2025 season for starting pitchers and my preview of the same. Or, rather, let's finish it off. Because over the past few weeks, I've already gone deep on the intriguing collection of rookie pitchers for 2026 and made the case for a dozen or so of the biggest candidates to be the No. 4 SP in 2026, two of the biggest storylines for the position looking ahead to next season. Later this week, we'll cap off this position recap series by looking at a position very much in flux heading into the offseason: Relief pitcher! 

For now, here's what you need to know about the state of SP ahead of what figures to be a very busy offseason: 

2025 Starting Pitcher Review

  1. Garrett Crochet, BOS: 205.1 - 18 - 255 - 2.59 - 1.03
  2. Tarik Skubal, DET: 195.1 - 13 - 241 - 2.21 - 0.89
  3. Paul Skenes, PIT: 187.2 - 10 - 216 - 1.97 - 0.95
  4. Bryan Woo, SEA: 186.2 - 15 - 198 - 2.94 - 0.93
  5. Carlos Rodon, NYY: 195.1 - 18 - 203 - 3.09 - 1.05
  6. Freddy Peralta, MIL: 176.2 - 17 - 204 - 2.70 - 1.08
  7. Max Fried, NYY: 195.1 - 19 - 189 - 2.86 - 1.10
  8. Cristopher Sanchez, PHI: 202 - 13 - 212 - 2.50 - 1.06
  9. Hunter Brown, HOU: 185.1 - 12 - 206 - 2.43 - 1.03
  10. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, LAD: 173.2 - 12 - 201 - 2.49 - 0.99
  11. Nick Pivetta, SD: 181.2 - 13 - 190 - 2.87 - 0.99
  12. Jacob deGrom, TEX: 172.2 - 12 - 185 - 2.97 - 0.92
  13. Zack Wheeler, PHI: 149.2 - 10 - 195 - 2.71 - 0.94
  14. Nathan Eovaldi, TEX: 130 - 11 - 129 - 1.73 - 0.85
  15. Logan Webb, SF: 207 - 15 - 224 - 3.22 - 1.24
  16. Joe Ryan, MIN: 171 - 13 - 194 - 3.42 - 1.04
  17. Matthew Boyd, CHC: 179.2 - 14 - 154 - 3.21 - 1.09
  18. Jesus Luzardo, PHI: 183.2 - 15 - 216 - 3.92 - 1.22
  19. Kevin Gausman, TOR: 193 - 10 - 189 - 3.59 - 1.06
  20. Merrill Kelly, TEX: 184 - 12 - 167 - 3.52 - 1.11
  21. Trevor Rogers, BAL: 109.2 - 9 - 103 - 1.81 - 0.90
  22. Gavin Williams, CLE: 167.2 - 12 - 173 - 3.06 - 1.27
  23. Framber Valdez, HOU: 192 - 13 - 187 - 3.66 - 1.24
  24. Andrew Abbott, CIN: 166.1 - 10 - 149 - 2.87 - 1.15

Crochet staying healthy and dominant for the whole season was no guarantee, given how his career has played out prior to this. It seems we've mostly moved past concerns about his ability to stay healthy after a monster workhorse season. He expanded his arsenal, pitched consistently deep into games, and never really slowed down as the season went on. He belongs in that top tier of starting pitchers. 

Woo, Rodon, deGrom, and Yamamoto all managed to stay healthy despite carrying pretty big injury red flags on their profile coming into 2025, though Rodon's offseason elbow surgery (which has his status for Opening Day very much in doubt) is a reminder that risk is always around the corner with these guys. The question is whether "these guys" applies to pitchers with an injury history specifically, or simply all pitchers. 

I suppose I should spend a bit more time on deGrom, who dialed back his velocity intentionally and managed to make it through a full season without going on the IL for the first time since 2019. He did stumble a bit down the stretch while pitching through shoulder fatigue that required a skipped start. Does that raise red flags about his ability to get through a full season in 2026? Or is that just a natural response to topping 100 innings for the first time in more than a half-decade? I'm struggling to figure out how to balance this for deGrom, who stands as the No. 10 SP in early ADP. That price feels fine enough, I suppose, but I think deGrom might be more of a floor play than a ceiling play for Fantasy. 

Biggest Breakout from 2025

Cristopher Sanchez, Phillies

Sanchez was one of the most popular breakout candidates in Fantasy coming into the season, and he absolutely blew away even the most optimistic expectations. How'd he do it? Well, unfortunately for the crusty old men who think it doesn't matter, Sanchez's improved velocity surely played a part. His velocity was up around 1 mph across the board without any diminishment in his command or control, an issue earlier in his career. That led to improved results on basically every pitch, though the changeup is still the absolute star here, accounting for 130 of his 212 strikeouts, with a .203 expected wOBA to go along with it. That changeup is a devastating pitch, and it pairs beautifully with his sinker. Sanchez had a very brief injury scare when he left an early start with some forearm trouble, but it didn't really slow him down at all. I think we probably just saw Sanchez's career year, and I would expect an ERA north of 3.00 from him next season, which is why I don't really think he's a great choice for the No. 4 SP spot. But I do think he's a relatively stable innings eater who belongs in that second tier of starting pitchers in drafts. 

Honorable Mention: Matthew Boyd, Cubs

Boyd has been around for a while and had some sleeper hype coming into the season, but I don't know if anyone really saw the season he just had coming. He came up just under six innings shy of a career high with 179.2, but unlike in that 2019 season – where his 4.56 ERA and 1.23 WHIP were, if not actively harmful, at least not especially helpful for Fantasy – Boyd was just one of the best pitchers in Fantasy in 2025. And that was especially true for the first two-thirds of the season, as he finished July with a 2.47 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, numbers that had him squarely in the conversation for some year-end awards. He stumbled to a 4.82 ERA thanks to eight homers in 56 innings plus a collapse of his strikeout rate to just 19.3%. 

He might have just run out of steam after years of being limited by injuries, but I think there was some natural regression in there, too. Boyd's xERA was 3.74, and he relied more on limiting hard contact than missing a ton of bats, a skill he hasn't consistently shown through his career. As good as Boyd was in 2025, I'm not particularly excited about the prospect of chasing this career-best season in 2026 drafts. The good news is that his current cost – 234.9 ADP in 28 NFBC drafts – doesn't require you to pay face value or anything close to it for his 2025 season. 

Biggest Bust from 2025

Seth Lugo, Royals

Never wrong; just early. 

I've been skeptical of Lugo's emergence as an ace from basically the start of his Royals tenure, and for a full season and a half, he made me look pretty dumb. In 2025, he finished the first half of the season with a 2.67 ERA despite significantly worse underlying metrics than he had in his already overperforming 2024. His strikeout rate held steady, but his walk rate ballooned from 5.7% to 7.7%, while his quality of contact metrics were worse than ever. And it finally caught up to him, as Lugo was tagged for a 7.51 ERA in nine second-half starts before a back injury ended his season for good in August. There will surely be those who view Lugo's slide as a result of the back injury, and they may be right – his 359.3 early ADP makes it reasonable enough to make that bet if you're a believer. 

I'm not one, so there will undoubtedly be pitchers I like even more in that range, even if the price is unobjectionable. 

Honorable Mention: Dylan Cease, Padres 

Cease may seem tough to make sense of. The last time he had consecutive seasons where his ERA didn't change by at least one full run from one season to the next was in 2020 and 2021, when he followed up a 4.01 ERA with a 3.91 mark. The skill set doesn't seem to change nearly as much from one year to the next, of course – between 2021 and 2025, he has had an xERA between 3.31 and 3.65 three times, with only one season above that highest mark, and he almost always posts elite strikeout rates. 

So, what to do about such a mercurial pitcher? It's easy: Buy the dip. If the skill set doesn't change nearly as much as the results do from year to year, then you should simply take the opportunity to buy the same skill set that cost a top-50 pick last season at a cost that will likely be closer to 90th overall. That's no guarantee that Cease will pitch like an ace, but you know he's capable of it; that's a lot more than I think you can say about names like Spencer Schwellenbach, Spencer Strider, Jesus Luzardo, or Eury Perez, all of whom are going in the same range of drafts. That's not necessarily to say I prefer Cease to all four of those guys; just that we've actually seen it from him for a full season (multiple times) and he doesn't have any injury red flags to speak of. 

Biggest rankings movers from 2025 to 2026

Up: Hunter Greene, Reds; Bryan Woo, Mariners; Nick Pivetta, Padres

A troublesome groin injury derailed his season twice, but when he was on the mound, Greene built on (and confirmed!) his 2024 breakout. His quality of contact metrics went in the wrong direction, but he put up the best strikeout and walk rates of his career to make up for it. The injury risk here is significant, given Greene's high-end velocity and history of arm issues, but if we were just talking talent, I think he might belong right there at the top tier of the position at this point.

Bryan Woo pitched better in 2025, but most importantly, he pitched a whole lot more. After going six innings just 12 times in 22 starts in 2024, he managed it 27 times in 30 starts in 2025, including in his first 25 starts. He stumbled a bit down the stretch, including a pectoral injury that ended his season a few starts early, but he was able to return for the playoffs, so that shouldn't be a big concern moving forward. We can't say Woo has totally overcome the injury worries, but his combination of a safe skill set and now-proven ace workload make him a viable SP1 or SP2, at least. 

Nick Pivetta finally put together an ERA below 4.00 at the age of 32, and all it took was moving to one of the best pitcher's parks in baseball. I don't expect his 2.87 ERA to be sustainable at all – his xERA was 3.93, actually worse than his 2024 mark in that category – but his home park should continue to help, at least. With a pick around 100th overall, I think he's an okay bet, though one I'm looking for more as a floor play than a high-upside one. 

Down:  Zack Wheeler, Phillies; Michael King, Padres; Bryce Miller, Mariners; Bailey Ober, Twins

Wheeler was having another typically terrific season and seemed like he might be en route to his elusive first Cy Young award. Then he developed a blood clot in his right shoulder, a scary injury that would ultimately require multiple surgeries, including a Thoracic Outlet surgery to relieve pressure on the vein in question. That throws his availability for 2026 very much in doubt, and even if he is able to pitch, Dave Dombrowski recently said it looks like Wheeler might be ready for Opening Day; in fact, his effectiveness will be very much in question. You could get an ace-level outcome from him, but he could also be totally useless for Fantasy. He'll have to slip to the double-digit rounds to be worth the risk, I think. 

The Padres got one season out of their "Michael King-as-starter" experiment, which isn't so bad. He missed more than two months with a shoulder injury in the early summer, and then missed another month in August and September with a knee issue. When he was on the mound, King was still effective, though there was a definite step back from his breakout in 2024. He's turning 31 in the first two months of 2025, has a lengthy injury history, and we don't even know what his home park will be until he signs as a free agent, so there's a lot working against King's value. As good as he was in 2024, his 131.3 early ADP is probably too rich a price to pay for me. 

The fact that Bryce Miller isn't having surgery this offseason is actually a mark against him in my eyes. Miller pitched through a bone spur in his right elbow for much of the season, and while his velocity was actually up in the second half and in the playoffs, he was still a mere shadow of his effective 2024 self. Even during a mostly successful postseason run, Miller struck out just nine in 14.1 innings of work. I would actually feel a lot more confident in projecting a return to form for Miller if he got the underlying issue with his elbow fixed. As it is, he'll probably rank outside of the top-50 SPs for me in 2026. 

We probably saw the worst-case scenario for Ober in 2025. Before that, he was a very useful pitcher for Fantasy, albeit one whose middling stuff always seemed to leave him prone to ratio-wrecking blow-ups. I'm mildly interested in a buy-low opportunity this offseason, but that's mostly because I expect Ober to be extremely cheap. If I can snag him for a bench spot or with my last SP spot, the bet could be worthwhile. 

Offseason preview

Who needs an upgrade most? 

I mean … everyone needs pitching, right? Some teams, like the Marlins or Pirates, probably have enough to where it would make more sense to focus their limited resources on buying bats – assuming they are trying to win games in 2026. Others, like the White Sox or Rockies, aren't really in the business of trying to win games and so will likely shop on the periphery of the starting pitcher marketplace. And teams like the Yankees and Dodgers, who most assuredly do want to win games, probably have enough starting pitching that they'll make other positions a priority in free agency and in the trade markets.

So maybe you take out about one-third of the league from the list of who will be aggressively targeting starting pitching this offseason. That still leaves 20 or so teams who should be looking to make at least some kind of splash at the position. 

Top impending free agents

There's no shortage of options, and this isn't a totally exhaustive list, obviously. That being said, there are also no real sure things among this group, either. Valdez is an innings eater who will pitch like a true ace for months at a time, but he's also about to turn 32 and has a history of inconsistency that makes him a tough bet on a long-term contract; Cease has very similar, arguably even more extreme, concerns; Suarez just put together his first truly great, truly full season; King is coming off an injury-wrecked season; Gallen and Imanaga both struggled mightily in 2025. The list goes on and on, but you know most of these names here and what to expect from them. 

I want to focus more on Imai, the name you probably don't recognize here. In the next week or so, I plan to do a more robust Hot Stove preview, and part of that will include a deep dive into the players expected to come over to the majors from Japan and Korea, and Imai might end up being the most important of them for Fantasy. The 27-year-old is coming off a 1.92 ERA in 163.2 innings, a career-best season that is less impressive than it initially seems, given the extreme pitcher-friendliness of Nippon Professional Baseball these days – that comes out to a 158 ERA+, slightly ahead of what Freddy Peralta managed in 2025 in MLB. 

Of course, Freddy Peralta might get a $100 million contract if he was a free agent at 27 right now, so I'm not going to hold that against him. Imai has consistently improved his walk rate throughout his career, dropping to 7.0% in 2025. That comes along with a very strong 27.8% strikeout rate, a strikeout rate comparable to what the much more hyped Roki Sasaki managed in his final season in Japan. And Imai is much more of a finished product, with far fewer injury red flags. If you want a good, quick breakdown of Imai's stuff, check this video from Lance Brozdowski. I think he could be a No. 2 or 3 type, like the good years from Kodai Senga or Yusei Kikuchi. He hasn't gotten a ton of hype in Fantasy circles, and if his price ends up around 200 (a reasonable guess, but nothing more), he'll be a worthwhile roll of the dice, at least. 

Trade candidates 

Yeah, there are some pretty gigantic names on this list. We can question whether teams like the Tigers or Reds should be open to trading their aces, given where they are in their contending cycle, but I'm not the one making these decisions. Fortunately, they are also the kinds of pitchers whose home park doesn't really matter for how we view them in Fantasy. If Alcantara is right, that's probably true of him, and moving on from the relatively friendly confines of Marlins park might be offset by moving away from the extremely unfriendly Marlins defense.