The name of the game when it comes to receivers is targets. You can't score or get yardage or receptions without them.
But you knew that. The point is, draft receivers who are going to get seven-plus targets per game (eight-plus in the early rounds).
You might think that's something every receiver will do. It's not.
Nineteen qualifying wide receivers averaged at least seven targets per game last year, while 18 averaged between 6.0 and 6.9 targets per game. The seven-plus target number was 29 in 2024 and 2023!
So when you waltz through these Tiers, think about how many targets per game each receiver will get, then think about how many 100-yard games and how many touchdowns they could realistically get. The fewer names who can get all of these wonderful numbers, the more inclined you should be to draft this position early on.
Lastly, the more catches are worth in your scoring, the more you should chase high-volume receivers. In half-PPR, that edge only goes so far -- the 10th-best receiver in half-PPR last year on a per-game basis would have ranked 18th among the running backs last year. So the premium you might put on stud receivers in half-PPR might not be as good in full PPR.
Tier 1
Round 1 in half-PPR
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Studs with high target volume from week to week. Not much else to think about here, other than one name in the group doesn't carry the same kind of track record of success as the others. That's the minimal risk you'll take with Smith-Njigba, whose previous high in half-PPR was 11.9 per game.
These will mostly be Round 1 picks expected to land north of 15 half-PPR points per game.
Tier 2
Round 2 in half-PPR
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Studs with high target volume from week to week, but also a wee bit of downside due to quarterback, injury, and/or age concerns. Any could finish top 5 and no one would be shocked, but it would mean carrying high target volume through most of the regular season without a drop-off in play from their quarterback. Honestly, it's not too much to ask for from any of these guys. Jefferson is the one most people are expecting a huge resurgence from -- you already know his track record. Nabers is a fast riser after he showed up healthy to training camp.
Most of these receivers will be second-round picks with an expectation of 14 half-PPR points per game.
Tier 3
Round 3 in half-PPR
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A slim majority of these guys have quarterback concerns but also have incredible talent. Nearly every receiver here has really good target volume ahead of them, and every single player in the group could justifiably finish inside the top 10 or outside the top 20 at receiver and no one would be surprised either way.
Figure this group has a shot at 13 half-PPR points per game, but with volatility. Only Rice, Olave and Pickens were top-12 in consistency rate last year.
Tier 4
Round 4 in half-PPR
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This tier frankly isn't that different from the tier prior. In fact, there are more receivers with better quarterbacks than in Tier 3. Problem is these guys don't necessarily have the same kind of expected target volume as the others, save for Wilson, but he's not promised a ton of touchdowns. I'm not sure any of these guys are -- of the six, there have been seven times combined when one receiver has scored at least seven times in a season. A lot of these guys have been around a while. That's a little more alarming in half-PPR where their reception tally isn't quite as important.
They're best drafted as No. 2 options. This tier might be expected to land closer to 12 half-PPR points per game.
Tier 5
Round 5 in half-PPR
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Very different profiles in this foursome. Burden could lead them all in targets and catches but finish last in touchdowns. His camp injury doesn't help his cause. Adams could lead them all in touchdowns but finish last in catches and yards. McMillan and Watson have high ceilings and depressing floors. And yet it's the last stop on the wide receiver tiers before you get to players who are better served as No. 3 options.
Feel free to think of the players in this tier with an 11 half-PPR points per game expectation.
Tier 6
Round 6 in half-PPR
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Tier 7
Round 7 in half-PPR
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Tier 8
Round 8 in half-PPR
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Tier 9
Round 9 in half-PPR
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Solid Backups
Rounds 10+ in half-PPR
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