There were 13 outfield-eligible players worth at least $20 in the FanGraphs Player Rater in 2026, just two fewer than the first base spot. If you remember that you only need to start one first baseman (and potentially a corner infielder and DH) while you might need to start as many as five outfielders at a time, well, you can see why this is problematic.

That's not to say the outfield is somehow a wasteland for Fantasy right now. First base was unusually strong in 2026, but in 2025, there were three times as many $20 players with outfield eligibility as at first base. And it's worth noting that the 13 $20 outfielders in 2026 are actually a few more than 2025's nine. 

On the whole, I look at outfield as a position with a decent amount of depth in a three-outfielder, 12-team league. You should be able to draft a full lineup without feeling too bad about your outfield options in that formula.

Once you start getting into five-outfielder leagues, and especially deeper leagues with 15 teams, it starts to feel a lot more thin. That's to be expected, of course, but it's important to keep that in mind when you're preparing for the 2027 season. You don't have to make the position a priority in every draft, but if you aren't cognizant of it, you could end up with a real weakness in those deeper leagues. 

For more on the state of the outfield position, check out Scott White's rankings and thoughts on the top 20 in his way-too-early rankings for 2027 here. 

2026 Outfield Review

  1. Pete Crow-Armstrong, CHC: .280 - 119 - 45 - 107 - 41
  2. Yordan Alvarez, HOU: .316 - 105 - 42 - 106 - 1
  3. Fernando Tatis Jr., SDP: .289 - 96 - 25 - 83 - 38
  4. Randy Arozarena, SEA: .281 - 113 - 26 - 79 - 26
  5. Jordan Walker, STL: .269 - 97 - 29 - 102 - 22
  6. James Wood, WSN: .265 - 106 - 30 - 77 - 21
  7. Jackson Chourio, MIL: .291 - 96 - 25 - 75 - 23
  8. Alec Burleson, STL: .279 - 89 - 26 - 116 - 4
  9. Jake McCarthy, COL: .291 - 80 - 15 - 83 - 32
  10. Michael Harris II, ATL: .294 - 79 - 26 - 87 - 12
  11. Jackson Merrill, SDP: .254 - 86 - 26 - 87 - 27
  12. Bryce Harper, PHI: .269 - 93 - 29 - 87 - 7
  13. Jake Bauers, MIL: .266 - 93 - 26 - 86 - 11
  14. Seiya Suzuki, CHC: .270 - 96 - 26 - 86 - 3
  15. Carson Benge, NYM: .282 - 86 - 20 - 65 - 22
  16. Andy Pages, LAD: .274 - 75 - 23 - 85 - 13
  17. Corbin Carroll, ARI: .239 - 91 - 22 - 78 - 21
  18. Oneil Cruz, PIT: .280 - 65 - 20 - 67 - 30
  19. Daylen Lile, WSN: .246 - 81 - 22 - 89 - 15
  20. Jac Caglianone, KCR: .289 - 72 - 23 - 75 - 7
  21. Bryan Reynolds, PIT: .261 - 102 - 17 - 72 - 9
  22. Chandler Simpson, TBR: .306 - 66 - 0 - 38 - 46
  23. Riley Greene, DET: .280 - 79 - 21 - 75 - 3
  24. Ceddanne Rafaela, BOS: .285 - 67 - 16 - 70 - 17

"Marginal player signs with the Rockies and has a Coors Field-inflated career season" used to be a pretty reliable archetype. Still, the Rockies have given Fantasy players little to get excited about in recent years. Jake McCarthy stands out as a notable exception, as his contact-and-speed profile proved to be a perfect fit for Coos Field. We're talking about relatively easy career-best production across the board, in a way that feels relatively obvious in retrospect. I don't have a ton of faith that this would prove replicable in any other ballpark — the gap between his .321 expected wOBA and his .349 actual mark was the 20th biggest in baseball — but it works there. As long as he isn't traded, McCarthy is a good bet to replicate his 2026 success. 

I also want to highlight Harris and Merrill, because it feels very natural to group them together. They're both younger than you might realize – Harris will turn 26 shortly before his sixth MLB season in March, while Merrill won't even be 24 on Opening Day. They're also both linked by the combination of plus athleticism and bat speed, plus pretty poor approaches at the plate. They are, on the whole, capable of overcoming their poor swing decisions with outlier outcomes when they make contact, but that isn't always the case for either. Hence, the lengthy slumps that have held both back in recent years. They both got the good end of their range of outcomes in 2026, and we saw how high the ceiling can be for both. But drafting either for their 2026 outcome will carry inherent risks until they show some growth in their plate discipline. 

Biggest Breakout from 2026

Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cubs

How could it be anyone else? Crow-Armstrong went from being a talented but deeply flawed hitter to arguably the best player in baseball, and he did it in-season. Early on, he looked more or less like the same guy he had always been, walking just nine times in 128 plate appearances through the end of June; he walked at least 12 times in each of the final five months of the season, something he had never done in any of his previous 13 months. He did that without sacrificing the pull-side power that has long been a key part of his game, and it turned him into one of the most dominant hitters in the game. Expecting all of those gains to carry over into 2027 might be asking a bit much — sometimes guys just get super locked in for a while — but he's clearly a much-improved hitter, and one who should be the first player taken in every single Roto league in 2027. And he shouldn't go much later in points leagues, where he was also the top player in 2026.

Honorable Mention: Jordan Walker, Cardinals

Okay, so if it were going to be anyone but Crow-Armstrong, it would be Walker, who went from being one of the biggest prospect busts in recent seasons to one of the best players in Fantasy. Walker still had pretty bad plate discipline and swing-and-miss issues, but he overcame that by being more aggressive early in the count and by doing more damage when he did make contact. The plate discipline issues and a late-season swoon — his expected wOBA dropped from .374 to .290 from the first half to the second — hint at the kind of risk involved in buying fully into what he did in 2026, and I suspect I'll be a little lower on him than the consensus. On the other hand, those were the exact reasons I cited to avoid Crow-Armstrong before the season, and look how that turned out. There's something to be said for just betting on the young, super-talented players when they show it. 

Biggest Bust from 2026

Aaron Judge, Yankees

The overall numbers don't show it, but Judge looked more or less like himself before he started dealing with that rib injury. In March and April, he posted a .450 xwOBA, right in line with his typical mark, but then things went downhill even before he ultimately went on the IL with a fractured rib. Was his downturn because of the injury? If so, then I think you can still make the case for him as a top-five pick in any league. But we're talking about a guy who will be 35 early next season, coming off a largely lost season that also came with an apparent decline in the underlying skill level, and that's a lot of red flags to overlook in a top-five pick. I might end up with Judge ranked that way come the spring, but it won't feel good. 

Honorable Mention: Kyle Tucker, Dodgers

Maybe you don't think he was worth the contract the Dodgers gave him. Fair enough; you won't be alone in holding that opinion. But anyone who tells you there was any way to see this kind of disaster coming from Tucker is just lying to you. A 29-year-old went out and posted the worst batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage of his career, and in two of those cases, it wasn't even close. Tucker had the combination of bat speed, athleticism, and plate discipline that should protect him against this kind of drop-off. Maybe the lights in L.A. were too bright for him. Maybe the pressure of the contract got to him. But I don't believe Tucker has just completely lost the ability to be an impact player, and he's still in what should be one of the best lineups in baseball, so I'll buy the bounce-back at what should be a steeply discounted price. The fact that he put together an excellent September and a very good postseason run certainly makes that an easier story to tell, of course.

Biggest rankings movers from 2026 to 2027

Up: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cubs; Yordan Alvarez, Astros; Jordan Walker, Cardinals; Jake Bauers, Brewers

As maybe the biggest Yordan Alvarez believer in the entire Fantasy industry coming into 2026, I do worry there's going to be a big overcorrection on him in 2027. We didn't learn anything new about Alvarez. If you think 2026 was a breakout season of some sort for him, I'm sorry, but you just weren't paying attention; he's just always been this good. His .442 xwOBA was higher than his career average, sure, but it was also not even the highest of his career, and he had a separate season with a .436 mark, too. The skills have always been there, but the difference is that he stayed healthy in 2026 after a bunch of injuries in previous seasons. I'm thrilled that he stayed healthy, and the fact that he did it in a season when his standing among Fantasy players was never lower is a good reminder that the Fantasy community isn't nearly as good at predicting who will and won't stay healthy as we think. But that will also be true in 2027: He'll be a top-five pick in most leagues despite the injury risk not being substantially different than it was last season. That's not to say he shouldn't be a top-five pick, of course; it's to say that he should have been a lot closer to a top-five pick last season than he was. 

You could make a case for Bauers as the biggest breakout at outfield, because he was viewed as an even bigger afterthought than Walker was. He was a 30-year-old platoon specialist, after all! That he somehow went out in 2026 and put up a .901 OPS against lefties and had the best season of his career by a mile came completely out of nowhere, and it's going to be very interesting to see what the market for him as a free agent looks like this offseason. I buy a lot of what he did in 2026, and I suspect there will be enough skepticism around it to keep his price pretty reasonable. But betting on age-30 breakouts is historically a pretty bad idea, so you'll have to get a pretty big discount on what he did in 2026 to make him worth the risk, I think.

Down: Ronald Acuna, Braves; Kyle Tucker, Dodgers; Wyatt Langford, Rangers; Brent Rooker, Athletics

I wanted to make Langford one of the biggest bust picks, if only to highlight the fact that he has almost certainly been the least profitable pick in Fantasy over the past three years. He has struggled to stay healthy and just hasn't been the impact player you'd expect from a guy who had the kind of prospect pedigree he did — not to mention the benefit of the doubt the Fantasy community has continued to give him. I suspect that will come to an end in 2027, and … it kind of makes me more excited about buying into him this season. Because, for as frustrating and disappointing as he's been as a big-leaguer, his per-162 game pace for his career is pretty terrific: 90 runs, 24 homers, 24 steals, and 77 RBI. If he just does that in 2027, isn't that worth something like a fifth-round pick? And I don't think that's the ceiling for Langford, who has put up those numbers at a very young age while playing through a variety of injuries and has certainly flashed a higher ceiling at times. I'm not trying to excuse his poor performance; I'm just pointing out that all he has to do is stay healthy to be a very good Fantasy option. That's usually a good player to buy into at a discount. 

The notoriously frugal A's are surely feeling some degree of buyer's remorse on Rooker's contract, but that contract should assure that he continues to play every day for them. His disappointing season came to an end after just 48 games, but he was on pace for another 30-homer season despite the injury. The .200 average is a tough look, as was the career-worst 32% strikeout rate, and the big drop off as a 31-year-old will rightly lead to plenty of skepticism around the potential of a bounce back. But that will also mean Rooker will come at a huge discount, potentially with a price outside the top 200 in many drafts. I'll buy that dip, personally. If you can buy him as a very cheap bench bat, there's no downside. 

Offseason preview

Who needs an upgrade most? 

A bunch of these teams are straddling the line between trying to go for it and needing to rebuild. The Reds could very well be in the market for a big upgrade in the outfield, or they could decide to move Elly De La Cruz and hit the reset button (again). The Astros could decide to give it one more run with this core, or they could move Alvarez and pivot to the future. The Phillies seem most likely to try to take a big swing, if only because Dave Dombrowski only knows how to take big swings. However, the Cardinals loom as a team that is ascending and could decide to get involved in the free-agent market with their core of cost-controlled position players.

Top impending free agents

Arozarena is such a fascinating free agent. He's coming off a perfectly timed career-best season, but he'll be 32 before Opening Day and has rated out as a pretty terrible defender for several years running. There's probably no chance he gets anything more than a five-year contract in free agency, and he might need to agree to a move to DH as soon as 2027, two things that might be a tough pill to swallow. But having the best season of his career in the toughest offensive environment in baseball is no small thing, and nobody can deny his flair for the dramatic would be a great fit for a team with championship aspirations. The underlying skill set doesn't look so different from previous seasons, but his price will likely be higher than ever, making him one of the more obvious players to avoid in drafts for 2027, no matter where he lands. 

Suzuki and, to a lesser extent, Happ look like players who will carry pretty solid value in Fantasy no matter where they land, but everyone else looks pretty context-dependent. Varsho's pull-heavy swing (and elite center field defense) would be a perfect fit for the Yankees, for example, but would be a much less interesting profile elsewhere. Stay tuned. 

Trade candidates 

Alvarez feels like the biggest wild card here. The Astros won the AL West, but with just a .500 record, and they had such a poor showing in a two-game Wild Card round loss to the White Sox that the hometown crowd showered them with boos along the way. The Astros have lost their long-held edge over the competition, and while Alvarez's contract isn't expiring, he only has two years left on a relatively below-market deal. So this might be their last chance to maximize their return for him. The Astros are in flux in a lot of ways after firing Dana Brown, so they might not be positioned to make a big, franchise-altering move, but they would probably be best served trying to get off the treadmill of mediocrity sooner rather than later. 

It increasingly looks like the Red Sox should have traded Duran at least a year ago, if not longer. All of a sudden, he's a 30-year-old corner outfielder who probably shouldn't play every day against lefties, and while he'll likely still earn a below-market salary in arbitration, he no longer looks like a real bargain. His skill set still has plenty of value for Fantasy (20 homers, 21 steals will always play), and I'd bet on him improving on last year's .207 average, but this isn't an early-round profile anymore. 

Top rookies to know for 2026

Jenkins is probably the most likely player here to be in an Opening Day lineup – I'm not sure what would have to happen for him not to be there, absent injury. He didn't take the league by storm in his first 26 games, but he was actually pretty great once he got adjusted, hitting .385/.400/.615 with just three strikeouts over his final 10 games. He has power, speed, and an excellent approach at the plate and should be a popular breakout candidate for 2027. 

But not as popular as De Paula could be. I say "could" because, well, there's no obvious place for him to play. It's definitely not going to be in right field or DH, and slotting De Paula in at left field would require finding somewhere for Teoscar Hernandez and his large salary to go. Center field is the biggest hole in the Yankees outfield, but De Paula hasn't played there since 2023, and … well, you see the problem here. De Paula destroyed Double-A and very much passed the eye test in 11 MLB games, earning not-totally-unfair comparisons to Juan Soto and Yordan Alvarez for his approach at the plate. He could be an absolute star, but given the roster crunch and the fact that he's only 21 and hasn't played at Triple-A yet, this might be a situation like Junior Caminero's a few years back – remember, he debuted toward the end of the 2023 season but wasn't an everyday player until August of 2024. I hope it doesn't take that long, but we'll have to at least consider the possibility that it will. 

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