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With Week 4 officially in the books, that means the NFL has hit the quarter point of the season. Well, technically it's not the quarter point, because we're only 23.5% of the way through the regular season, but we're going to round up and say it is. 

Although it's hard to tell who's a contender and who's a pretender through the first few weeks, you can start to see some separation after Week 4. For instance, the Bills definitely look like a team that's destined to make the playoffs this year while we can probably all agree that the Titans are going to be spending the postseason at home. 

OK, those were two easy teams, so let's make things a little more difficult. We're going to take a look at the current playoff odds for the top seven teams in each conference, and from there, we're going to pick out three pretenders who WILL NOT be making the postseason even though their current odds suggest they will.  

Let's start with the AFC: (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, where new users get $300 in bonus bets with a winning $5 bet)

AFC

Remember, these teams are listed in the order of their odds to make the playoffs, not the order that they would be seeded. Based on the odds, the AFC seeds would look like this: 

  1. Bills
  2. Chargers
  3. Ravens
  4. Colts
  5. Chiefs
  6. Jaguars
  7. Steelers

Alright, now let's take a look at who's expected to make the playoffs in the NFC based on the odds. 

NFC

If we go by seeding, the NFC playoff field would look like this: 

  1. Eagles
  2. Packers
  3. Buccaneers
  4. Rams
  5. Lions
  6. 49ers
  7. Seahawks

Now it's time to eliminate the pretenders. Out of those 14 teams, we have three we don't trust to make the playoffs, so let's take a look at the list. 

Three teams we don't trust

Jaguars (3-1)

First, let me just say that Liam Coen has been fantastic during his first year on the job. The Jaguars offense looks revitalized and Coen made a brilliant hire at defensive coordinator in Anthony Campanile, who has completely turned around that unit. The Jaguars have already forced 13 turnovers through four weeks, which is more than they forced during the ENTIRE 2024 season (nine). The Jags biggest problem is that Trevor Lawrence still hasn't taken a big step forward under Coen. And their other problem is that they're about to get a reality check from their schedule. The Jags next three games are against the Kansas City Chiefs, Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams. If they win just ONE of those, maybe I'll be a believer, but for now, I think they'll be on the outside looking in at the end of the year. 

So far, their best win has come against a depleted 49ers team, which was impressive, especially since Coen was ready to fight Robert Saleh after the game, but I still don't think Jacksonville has enough firepower to make the playoffs. 

Ravens (1-3)

Feel free to send this to "Old Takes Exposed" if this prediction blows up in my face, but I'm writing the Ravens off. At 1-3, the Ravens are somehow still the favorite to win the AFC North, even though I'm not even sure they're going to have enough players to field a team this week. 

Besides all the injuries, the other problem for the Ravens is that they have the worst defense in the NFL. Baltimore has given up the most yardage in the league through four weeks and the defense is likely only going to get worse with the recent losses of starting corner Marlon Humphrey and linebacker Roquan Smith, who are both expected to miss several weeks. Their sack leader from 2024 (Kyle Van Noy) hasn't played in two weeks and their best defensive lineman (Nnamdi Madubuike) is out for the season. 

Not to mention, Lamar Jackson is dealing with a hamstring injury, which is one of the worst injuries for a mobile quarterback to deal with. The Ravens do have a very manageable schedule, so they could certainly get to nine wins this year, but I don't think it will be enough to make the playoffs. 

49ers (3-1)

The 49ers have gotten off to a hot start, but like the Ravens, they are dealing with a lot of injuries and it feels like it just might be too much to overcome. The most concerning injury is the one to Brock Purdy, who aggravated a toe injury in Week 4. The 49ers do have Mac Jones at backup QB, but he's also dealing with an injury.

Their top two receivers are both banged up with Ricky Pearsall (knee) and Jauan Jennings (ribs) both battling injuries (They rank first and third on the team in receiving yards through four weeks). Not to mention, George Kittle is currently on injured reserve, Nick Bosa is out for the season and Brandon Aiyuk still hasn't played a single down this year because he's still recovering from a torn ACL that he suffered last year. 

It also doesn't help that the 49ers play in a loaded NFC West. The Rams and Seahawks are mostly healthy and they've played solid football through four weeks. It won't be surprising if the 49ers finish third in the division and that might not be enough to get them in the playoffs. 

Surprise teams

If we have three teams that won't be making the playoffs, that means we need three teams to take their place, so let's take a look at three possible surprise teams that could be a good bet to make the postseason. 

Broncos (2-2)

Odds to make the playoffs: -122

The Broncos are 2-2, but they're literally just two plays away from being 4-0. Both losses came on a last-second field goal, including a Week 2 loss to the Colts where Denver got called for boneheaded penalty that set up Indy's game-winning kick. 

Not only are the Broncos stacked on defense, but Bo Nix seems to be getting more comfortable every week in Sean Payton's offense. In Week 4, he had a breakout game against the Bengals that saw him throw for 326 yards and two touchdowns. Yes, it was the Bengals, but no other QB has thrown for 300 yards against Cincinnati this year, so it was an impressive showing, regardless of the opponent. Nix is making throws that weren't really in his arsenal last year. 

Defensively, the Broncos lead the NFL in sacks and they've given up the second-fewest points in the league and when you combine that with an offense that's putting up over 350 yards per game, that's going to make Denver a formidable opponent for anyone down the stretch. 

One thing working in the Broncos' favor is their schedule. Denver's remaining strength of schedule is just .462, which is tied for the fifth-easiest in the NFL. 

Patriots (2-2)

Odds to make the playoffs: +164

Before the season, I had the Patriots as a dark-horse team to make the playoffs and I feel even better about my pick after watching them play four games. When the Pro Football Hall of Fame is tweeting about your starting quarterback, you know he's done something good and that's what happened with Drake Maye after New England's 42-13 win over Carolina in Week 4. 

Maye completed 82.4% of his passes for 203 yards and two touchdowns and with that showing, he becamse the first player in NFL HISTORY under the age of 24 to throw at least two touchdown passes and complete 75% of his passes in three straight games.

Maye's accuracy has opened things up for a Patriots' rushing attack that has now gone over 100 yards in three straight games. Mike Vrabel's defense has also been solid, surrendering just 77.5 rushing yards per game, which ranks third overall in the NFL 

The Patriots also have the benefit of having the easiest remaining strength of schedule at .365 over their final 13 games. To put that in perspective, no other team has a remaining strength of schedule that's under .400. 

Over the final 13 weeks, they get to play seven games against teams that are either 0-4 or 1-3 right now (Jets x 2, Giants, Titans, Browns, Dolphins, Saints). They also have a game against the Bengals. 

Bears (2-2) 

Odds to make playoffs: +350

I thought about putting the Commanders here, but the fact that Jayden Daniels has been dealing with a knee injury for two weeks scared me away. I thought about putting the Falcons here, but I have no faith in them after watching them lose to the Panthers, 30-0. 

With Washington and Atlanta out, I decided to go with a long shot: The Chicago Bears. This team has won two games in row and Ben Johnson now has them rolling in his first year on the job. The one thing I wanted to see from Johnson was whether he could help develop Caleb Williams into a star quarterback and he's done that so far. Through four games, Williams is on pace for 3,940 yards passing and 34 touchdown passes, which would both be franchise records. 

Williams threw a 27-yard laser to Rome Odunze for a touchdown against the Raiders and that's a throw he probably doesn't make last year.

Williams is playing smarter and with more confidence, which is why the Bears offense could help lead this team to a playoff berth for the first time since 2020. 

My one concern with the Bears is that they can't stop the run -- they've surrendered the most rushing yards in the NFL through four weeks -- and if they don't get that fixed soon, this prediction might go up in flames.