Super Bowl or bust: Biggest reason why these 11 contenders will miss out on hoisting the Lombardi Trophy

With Week 12 in the rearview mirror, we're now, officially, two-thirds of the way through the 2025 NFL season. Which means we are really heading into the stretch run, and that the picture of what matters and what doesn't is starting to become clearer with each passing week. 

And one of the things that is becoming clearer is that we have no idea who is going to win the Super Bowl, or who the true contenders even are. There appear to be a whole bunch of teams with a claim to contender status, but they all seemingly appear to have at least some flaws.

We're here today to talk about those flaws, and to determine what, if anything, will hold the contenders back from actually hoisting the Lombardi Trophy come February. 

Over at DraftKings, there are 11 teams with odds of +1500 or better to win the Super Bowl. The next-closest team is at +4000, which is a pretty significant gap; so we'll call this group of 11 the true Super Bowl contenders, and then we'll examine what might prevent them from emerging as Super Bowl champs. 

Los Angeles Rams: Injuries and special teams

It was pretty difficult to think of the possible Achilles' heel for the Rams, who have been absolutely rolling since losing two out of three games following their 2-0 start. The secondary would seem to be the major point of concern, but that group has been playing really well. Emmanuel Forbes and Cobie Durant look good. Quentin Lake is out but could come back. And the Kams (Curl and Kinchens) look solid at safety. But the Rams are built around a 37-year-old quarterback with back issues and a wide receiver who spends more time in the medical tent than anybody in the league, plus they already have Rob Havenstein and Tyler Higbee on injured reserve. Plus, we can't forget that this has been one of the worst special teams units in the league so far.

Philadelphia Eagles: Inconsistent offense

We've seen the Philadelphia defense hit a level that few other units in the league can reach. They got tagged by the Cowboys on Sunday, but they were fresh off humiliating the Packers and Lions in the two games before that. We know they have an incredibly high ceiling. Does the offense still have that same ceiling? The line hasn't been as good as in previous years. Saquon Barkley hasn't been as explosive as he was a year ago. (No surprise after his 450-plus touches.) And A.J. Brown has spent more time complaining about his role than actually getting the ball because the passing game has been out of sync seemingly all season. The Eagles have enough talent that they've been able to stack wins together anyway, but there are concerns here. 

Kansas City Chiefs: Might not actually make playoffs

This one is awkward. Even after their seemingly season-saving win on Sunday over the Indianapolis Colts (more on them later), the Chiefs are still just 6-5 on the season. They're one game out of the wild card, and they are a combined 0-3 against the three teams that currently occupy the wild card spots. (The Chargers, Jaguars and Bills.) They have a chance to get even with L.A. in a few weeks' time and potentially use that game as a springboard down the stretch, but it's not like the schedule is easy the rest of the way. The Chiefs play the Cowboys, Texans, Chargers, Titans, Broncos and Raiders following that Cowboys game. There are two easy wins in there, but four potentially tough games, too. They can't afford to lose more than maybe two games.

Seattle Seahawks: Playing from behind

We've really only seen one game so far this season where the Seahawks didn't play in a neutral or positive script for most of the game, and it didn't go well. Sam Darnold probably sees Rams defensive coordinator Chris Shula in his sleep, given what's happened the last two times Darnold played against his unit. Seattle likes to be able to keep pass volume down and especially to avoid straight dropback passes when the defense knows the pass is coming. That's how the team is built. If you get a lead on the Seahawks, we've seen them become a totally different offense. Of course, the Seattle defense makes getting that lead in the first place very difficult. But if you can, then it becomes a much different game from there on out. 

Indianapolis Colts: Quarterback

Daniel Jones through the first eight games of the year: 71.2% completion rate, 8.5 yards per attempt, 13 touchdowns, three interceptions, nine sacks taken. Jones over the last three weeks: 64.5% completion rate, 7.3 yards per attempt, four touchdowns, four interceptions, 12 sacks taken. Shane Steichen has done an excellent job scheming Jones into position for success throughout this season, but he is still a quarterback who needs to be schemed into position for success; he's not going to elevate the players around him through his own excellence. In fact, it's the other way around. The offensive line and skill-position players need to lift Jones. It's really hard to win that way in the playoffs, no matter how good those other players are. 

Detroit Lions: Playing from behind, outdoor games

Like the Seahawks, the Lions are not built to play from behind. Nobody is, really, but their specific style of offense, with all the under-center play-action and misdirection at times feels like it can crumble under the weight of having to become a straight dropback operation when down by multiple scores in the second half. Against the Giants, you can win. But against real teams? The Lions also likely won't have the benefit of home-field advantage for much of the playoffs, even if they win the NFC North (and they're still a game behind). The offense looks much different outdoors than it does on the fast track of Ford Field or against other domed opponents, so having to go outside for a playoff game in, say, Philly, could prove difficult. 

Denver Broncos: Inconsistent offense

Like the Eagles, the Broncos have one of the NFL's best defenses -- a unit that can reach a higher ceiling than almost any in the league. That's especially true when Denver has Patrick Surtain II healthy so that the secondary can complement the pass rush. But good lord, does the offense go through stretches where it just looks totally inept, even in games that the Broncos eventually win. It always seems like they have to pull a rabbit out of their collective hats to find enough offense to come away with a victory. To their credit, they have actually done that quite often so far this season, with several fourth-quarter comebacks to their name. But that's a really hard way to live, especially when you don't have the advantage at quarterback.

Buffalo Bills: Defense, especially vs. the run

The Bills seemingly just can't stop offenses from running the ball down their throats. Buffalo has given up 100-plus rushing yards in nine of 11 games and 180-plus rushing yards in five of them. They haven't been quite as statistically vulnerable against the pass, but that's at least partially because opponents are clocking them to the tune of 5.3 yards per carry and a league-high 17 touchdowns on the ground. Why risk throwing the ball any more than you need to? The Bills are and have been dealing with injury issues along the defensive front, and that remains a concern going forward, because it's not like they're suddenly going to get a ton of reinforcements that turn them into an elite or even good unit against the run. 

Baltimore Ravens: Lamar Jackson's hamstring

Jackson is back on the field, but he has not looked anything remotely like himself over the four weeks since he returned from the hamstring strain that kept him for Weeks 5 through 8. In four games, Jackson has completed 62% of his passes at 7.3 yards per attempt, with five touchdowns against two interceptions. He's taken nine sacks. But he has run just 25 times for only 71 yards. That is not the Lamar Jackson we know, folks. It's just not. He's healthy enough to play and so we have to judge him on that, but if he's going to look like this for the rest of the year, the Ravens are not going far in the playoffs even if they do manage to win the AFC North. They need his health to take a significant step forward so that he can do the things he does best. 

New England Patriots: Offensive line

The group up front for the Pats was already kind of hanging on by a threat, even before this past Sunday. Drake Maye has been sacked more than any quarterback in the NFL not named Cam Ward, and he's been pressured on nearly 39% of his dropbacks. Now, the entire left side of the offensive line might be out for a while after both Will Campbell and Jared Wilson got hurt against the Bengals. That should also hurt the Pats in the run game, where they are already averaging the fifth-fewest yards before contact per rush of any team in the league, per TruMedia. Maye is fantastic but he can't do everything by himself. He and the backs could be under siege for a few weeks while the line gets healthy, and even if it does, that might not be enough.

Green Bay Packers: Injuries on offense

Green Bay has also tended to play down to the level of its competition this year, so that was in consideration for its potential Achilles' heel here, but we have to go with this instead. The Packers look like an entirely different offense without star tight end Tucker Kraft, who was their most explosive weapon in the passing game. Plus, Josh Jacobs has been dealing with multiple injuries throughout this season and simply has not looked the same as he did during his first year with the team. The offensive line has been shuffling thanks to injuries all year long. And Jayden Reed still isn't back from injured reserve. Reed's return should help, whenever it happens, but there might be too much wrong elsewhere for the Packers to overcome.