NFL Week 1 odds, picks: Jags throttle Deshaun Watson-led Browns, plus two underdogs win outright

To shamelessly rip off our guy Jim Nantz -- Hello, friends! 

It's funny how the NFL season lines up: the start of the new year brings a similar "Back to School" vibe. Unlike when I used to stuff my backpack with fresh notebooks, erasable pens (remember those?) and lunch, I'm not filled with the dread of sitting in a classroom all day. Instead, it's giddiness for what the new season may bring and the twists and turns that we're bound to go through. 

Last year was the perfect example of how unpredictable the league can be. Both Seattle and New England had +6000 odds at this time last year to win Super Bowl LX. To put that into perspective, that'd be like if either the Commanders or the Colts (both currently +6000) win Super Bowl LXI this February. Crazy! 

Before we get ready to strap in for what should be a heck of a ride this season, I want to pat myself on the back and maybe embolden you to pay even more attention to this little gambling window on the internet this season. 

In this very post a year ago, I gave you a future parlay to place before Week 1: the Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos to make the playoffs, which paid out +362 at the time. Not only did those two cash that playoff future, but they were the No. 1 seeds in their respective conferences. 

The regular season was modest: I went 118-151-3 ATS and 167-104-1 SU, but I was profitable with my Locks of the Week (48-42 ATS). Where I really cooked, however, was in the playoffs, going 9-4 ATS and 11-2 straight-up. 

That included an almost perfect assessment of Super Bowl LX. I knew the blowout was coming from Seattle and had them easily covering the 4.5-point spread. I almost even got the final score exactly right, as I predicted a 30-17 win by the Seahawks, and they actually won the Super Bowl, 29-13. 

So, here's hoping I carried that strong playoff momentum into the offseason and into the 2026 season. Whether you're fading or following, I'm happy to have you along for the ride. 

Oh, and how about we run it back with another future parlay to place before Week 1, shall we? Broncos and Saints to make the playoffs at +386. That's the official play, but if you want to sprinkle something with even more juice, you can go this route too: Broncos and Saints to win their divisions at +1000. 

Alright, let's get this thing going with, of course, my five locks of the week.  

2026 record

Locks of the Week ATS: 0-0-0
ATS: 0-0-0
ML: 0-0

Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars

• Sunday, 1 p.m. (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)

Whenever you have a quarterback battle in training camp, you want to enter Week 1 with a firm decision and the confidence that the player selected can get the job done. Does anyone feel confident in Deshaun Watson's ability to keep the offense afloat? Watson didn't look particularly sharp this summer, but beat out Shedeur Sanders anyway, and now he'll face a Jaguars defense that really came on strong down the stretch in 2025, which helped them cover their final eight regular-season games, en route to a league-best 12-5 ATS record. 

While Cleveland has a new coach in Todd Monken, the franchise has historically been terrible against the spread on the road over the last two seasons. In that time, they are 4-13 ATS, which ranks as the worst record in the NFL. 

I think Cleveland has some solid pieces on the defensive side of the ball, but Trevor Lawrence entering his second year under Liam Coen could make the Jacksonville offense even more high-powered than it was a year ago. If they build up a lead and force Watson into a pass-heavy game script, Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker could feast. 

Projected score: Jaguars 30, Browns 17
The pick: Jaguars -7.5 

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles

• Sunday, 4:25 p.m. (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

The Laremy Tunsil injury (torn triceps on Aug. 8) was a gut punch to the Commanders, who are hoping to rebound after a disappointing 2025 season that was marred by injury. It looms large in this matchup against Philadelphia, particularly if Jonathan Greenard (who has been dealing with the pec injury) is able to go. When you pair protection issues with a defense that may need a few weeks to fit their new pieces (Odafe Oweh, K'Lavon Chaisson, and Sonny Styles) in, there's the possibility that things could get out of hand for Washington as they step into Lincoln Financial Field. 

On top of that, Jayden Daniels is 1-7 ATS in his last eight road starts. 

The Eagles have routinely started the year off on a strong note, winning five straight Week 1 games entering 2026. They are also 9-1 in their past 10 Week 1 contests. Sure, Philadelphia is dealing with its own set of changes, transitioning to a new offense under OC Sean Mannion and working without A.J. Brown (traded to New England), but this is still a potent group. Most importantly, the offensive line is healthy, which I believe was a key reason for their downfall at the end of last season. 

Projected score: Eagles 30, Commanders 20
The pick: Eagles -4.5 

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs

• Monday, 8:15 p.m. (ESPN, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

I simply don't understand how the books are assessing the Broncos. They are currently looking up at the Chiefs and Chargers to win the AFC West, despite reaching the AFC Championship a year ago. Had it not been for Bo Nix suffering a fractured ankle that booted him from the title game, they could've reached the Super Bowl. To me, they are the most complete team in the division after bringing everyone back from last year, getting Nix healthy, and adding Jayden Waddle to the receiver room. 

Something tells me they'll remind the league of their ceiling with a statement road win in Week 1 on the Monday Night Football stage. 

I also have some serious questions about the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes is making his return from a torn ACL and LCL he suffered in Week 15, and I wonder if his escapability will be where it needs to be, considering the shakiness of the offensive line. Specifically, left tackle Josh Simmons is dealing with a back injury, while right tackle Jaylon Moore gave up three sacks and 23 pressures last year despite playing just 42% of the offensive snaps in spot appearances. If Simmons is out, Moore would likely swing to left tackle, which would then elevate undrafted free agent Kahlil Benson to right tackle. 

So, if you're scoring at home, Kansas City is starting a quarterback who could have limited mobility in his first game back from a season-ending knee injury and is playing behind an offensive line with clear issues at both starting tackle spots, and they are facing a Broncos defense that has piled up 131 sacks over the last two seasons. That might tell the entire story right there. 

Projected score: Broncos 24, Chiefs 20
The pick: Broncos +2.5 

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans

• Sunday, 1 p.m. (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)

I believe DJ Moore being added to the Bills offense will do wonders for Josh Allen this season, but that won't happen in Week 1. I love the Texans as a home dog because they are well-equipped to slow down Buffalo's key offensive pieces. Houston allowed just 17.4 points per game last season (second-fewest in the NFL) and 277.2 yards per game (fewest). Derek Stingley Jr. should help slow down the Bills passing attack; rookie defensive tackle Kayden McDonald could be a key piece against the run; and, of course, you have Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter both screaming off the edge. That's a lot for Josh Allen to deal with, and Houston has played him well recently. 

In his career, Allen is 0-4 on the road against the Texans. In those games, his teams have averaged 17.8 points per game, and he's completed just 52.8% of his passes. Over the past two seasons (no matter the location), here's how Allen has fared against Houston compared to the rest of the league. 

All the Texans need from the offense is for C.J. Stroud to protect the football. And they might be able to do that with a stable running game after acquiring David Montgomery this offseason. Buffalo struggled mightily against the run in 2025 and didn't do much this offseason to fix that deficiency. If Houston can get it going on the ground, that should help Stroud immensely in this upset attempt. 

Projected score: Texans 26, Bills 23
The pick: Texans +1.5

New York Jets at Tennessee Titans

• Sunday, 1 p.m. (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)

When you look at the Over/Under win totals for the season, you'll find that the Titans sit at 6.5 and the Jets are at 5.5. Both teams need this game to reach their over, and I think Tennessee will be the one swimming upstream by the end of Sunday afternoon. I don't think New York will make many waves this season, but they are far more talented than they were a year ago on both sides of the ball.  For instance, they ranked last in the NFL with 140.3 passing yards per game. Geno Smith won't be mistaken for an elite quarterback, but he'll improve that figure, especially with a strong offensive line in front of him and some intriguing skill position players like Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall at his disposal.

They also added many veterans to their defense, including linebacker Demario Davis and safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. That's not to mention edge rusher David Bailey, who was the No. 2 pick in the draft. 

Tennessee made moves this offseason as well, hiring Robert Saleh as head coach, bringing in Brian Daboll as OC, and adding a slew of veterans on both sides of the ball. The big X-factor will be Cam Ward, who didn't look great this preseason. I think it might take a little longer for the Titans' pieces to come together, which could allow the Jets to surprisingly start the year 1-0. 

Projected score: Jets 24, Titans 20
The pick: Jets +1.5

Rest of the bunch

Patriots at Seahawks (Wednesday)
Projected score: Seahawks 27, Patriots 21
The pick: Seahawks -3.5

49ers at Rams (Thursday) 
Projected score: 49ers 27, Rams 24
The pick: 49ers +3.5

Falcons at Steelers
Projected score: Steelers 24, Falcons 17
The pick: Steelers -3

Ravens at Colts
Projected score: Ravens 26, Colts 23
The pick: Colts +3.5

Bears at Panthers
Projected score: Bears 27, Panthers 20
The pick: Bears -2.5

Saints at Lions
Projected score: Lions 33, Saints 21
The pick: Lions -7

Buccaneers at Bengals
Projected score: Bengals 30, Buccaneers 23
The pick: Bengals -3.5

Cardinals at Chargers
Projected score: Chargers 27, Cardinals 17
The pick: Cardinals +10.5

Packers at Vikings
Projected score: Vikings 24, Packers 20
The pick: Vikings -1.5

Dolphins at Raiders
Projected score: Raiders 21, Dolphins 20
The pick: Dolphins +3.5

Cowboys at Giants
Projected score: Giants 27, Cowboys 24
The pick: Giants +2.5