Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Season 14 of my NFL picks!

I know, I know. I can't believe I'm still around, either. At some point, I'll retire or be forced into retirement, and when that happens, the first thing I'm going to do is buy a 49ers helmet so I can take it with me to the beach. 

Why would I need a 49ers helmet at the beach? I think we all know the answer to that.  

I mean, just look at those routes. If the NFL ever decides to create an entire team out of only fake football players on Instagram, Daejon Love will be a first-round pick. I don't know why anyone would ever create an entire team out of fake football players on Instagram, but I've seen crazier things happen on social media, so I'm not going to pretend like it can't happen.  

If the 49ers put as much effort into this season as Daejon Love did into scamming people, they are a lock to win the Super Bowl.

Now, did I actually pick the 49ers to win the Super Bowl this year? 

That's a great question, and you can find the answer by clicking here to see my predictions for the entire 2026 NFL season. If you click over, you'll see my final record prediction for all 32 teams, plus who I'm picking to make the playoffs and who I'm taking to win Super Bowl LX. Spoiler alert: I'm not taking the Browns.  

For those you clicking over to read my predictions, we'll wait here until you get back. 

All right, welcome back. Let's get to the Week 1 picks.

NFL Week 1 picks

Patriots at Seahawks

Wednesday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)

For just the second time in 75 years, the NFL is opening the season on a Wednesday. I don't think anyone asked for a Wednesday night opener, but after going more than 210 days without having an actual NFL game to watch, I'm not going to complain. 

As a matter of fact, I'm going to do the opposite of complain. I'm going to praise the move, if only because it gave NBC an excuse to pull the Hump Day camel out of retirement. 

If I had to choose any NFL coach to open the season with a game on Hump Day, I probably wouldn't have gone with... you know what, I'm not going to go there. That's too easy. Let's just get to the pick. 

The last time we saw these two teams on the field together was in February, when the Seahawks absolutely destroyed the Patriots 29-13 in Super Bowl LX. In that game, the Patriots got blown out on a neutral field, and now, they have to go to Seattle to face a Seahawks team that is 10-1 against the AFC under Mike MacDonald. 

Since hiring MacDonald, the Seahawks have made a habit of demoralizing AFC teams, and I'm not sure this game is going to be any different. New England might have gotten better this offseason, but not by 16 points. 

The Patriots' two biggest problems heading into Week 1 are both related to the pass rush: on defense, they have no proven pass rush, and on the other side of the ball, I don't think their offensive line can stop Seattle's pass rush. 

That feels like a recipe for another blowout. The Patriots did make some major upgrades on offense with the biggest one being the addition A.J. Brown, but it's hard to get him the ball if you don't have time to throw. It's also hard to get him the ball if he's being blanketed by Devon Witherspoon.  

As for the Patriots offensive line, Will Campbell is now fully healthy and the unit should look better than it did in the Super Bowl, but that's mostly because I don't think it's possible to be any worse (Drake Maye got sacked six times in the Super Bowl loss). 

Before we get to my pick in the NFL opener, I feel obligated to mention the fact that I picked the Seahawks to win by two touchdowns when these two teams met in Super Bowl XL. I'm only pointing this out so we're all aware that I'm one-for-one picking Patriots-Seahawks games over the past nine months, so we can probably all just assume I'm going to go two-for-two.

The Seahawks might be the most slept-on defending champ in NFL history, and I feel like they're going to come out angry in this opener. I think Seattle sends a message to the rest of the NFL with a double-digit win over a good Patriots team. 

THE PICK: Seahawks 27-17 over Patriots

Rams vs. 49ers in Australia

Thursday, 8:35 p.m. ET (Netflix)

For the first time in NFL history, we're getting a regular-season game in Australia, and I have to say, this has already turned into what is possibly the greatest battle of wits that we have ever seen in a Week 1 game. Not only do both teams have to deal with a 17-hour time difference between Australia and California, but they also have to fly 16 hours just to get to Australia. 

When you add those two things together, that can lead to some serious jet lag, but both teams think they know how to beat it: 

  • The 49ers decided that spending in Australia would be their best bet to beat the time difference. The 49ers will be in Melbourne for so long that I think they will technically be citizens of Australia by the time they leave. They landed in Australia on Sept. 4 and will have spent the entire week in Melbourne by the time the game kicks off. I will not be surprised if George Kittle has a pet kangaroo before this week is over. 
  • The Rams could have copied the 49ers, but instead they decided to go the opposite route: rather than spending the entire week in Melbourne, the Rams will only be in Australia for about 36 hours. They lamd in Melbourne on Thursday morning for a game that kicks off on Friday at 10:35 a.m Australia time. 

I'm not sure which strategy is better, but I did once make a 36-hour trip to Melbourne, so I at least know what the Rams are up against. And in case you're wondering what I did on my 36-hour trip: I started the day by going to Patricia Coffee for breakfast, which I'm only noting because if you go to Melbourne and don't try Melbourne coffee, they will ban you from making any future visits to the city. 

I also went to the Queen Victoria Market for lunch, and I ate at the Biggie Smalls restaurant in the Melbourne Airport for dinner. 

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If you're ever at the Melbourne Airport, be sure to eat the Biggie Smalls restaurant.  John Breech/CBS Sports

If there is one rule I live by in life, it's that I will never pass up an option to eat at a restaurant named after Biggie Smalls. 

Although I didn't get to see as much of Melbourne as I would have liked, I wasn't affected by jet lag at all, so I think the Rams might be on to something.

Since Sean McVay was hired in 2017, the Rams have always kept their international trips short and sweet, and it seems to work. Under McVay, the Rams are 3-0 both straight up and against the spread in international games, and they've won those three games by a combined score of 92-17.

  • 2017 London (arrived on Friday before Sunday game): Rams 33-0 over Cardinals (Rams -3)
  • 2019 London (arrived on Friday before Sunday game): Rams 24-10 over Bengals (Rams -12)
  • 2025 London (arrived on Saturday before Sunday game): Rams 35-7 over Jaguars (Rams -3)

Last year, the Rams became the first team to arrive on Saturday for a game in London. The decision to go with their unprecedented plan last season was definitely risky because they were playing a Jaguars team that has played more games in England (14) than anyone. If anyone knows how to handle the travel for a London game, it's the Jags, but the Rams destroyed them anyway.

The Rams created a bold travel plan for Australia and if you're picking against them because you think the plan is crazy, you're making one of the three classic blunders and we all know the three classic blunders: 

1. Never get involved in a land war in Asia.
2. Never go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line
3. Never try to outsmart Sean McVay when making a travel itinerary for an international game

And now, let's forget about the actual travel for a second and simply talk about how this game might go. 

The first week of the season is usually when most NFL teams are at their healthiest, but not the 49ers. Somehow, they're already banged up. The 49ers are so injured that they might actually have to let Daejon Love play. So you have a beat-up 49ers team traveling halfway across the world to face a Rams super team that has two of the defenders in NFL history (Myles Garrett and Aaron Donald) along with the reigning NFL MVP (Matthew Stafford). 

It's still not a lock that Donald's going to play, but as long as Garrett and Stafford are both out there, the Rams should be able to play at a high level. And Stafford is going out there as long as his back holds up on the flight over. 

Alright, if you need me, I'll be watching all three Crocodile Dundee movies, so I can get mentally prepared for this game. 

THE PICK: Rams 24-17 over 49ers

Bills at Texans

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

I hate that I have to pick a winner in this game, because I love both of these teams this year, and I don't want to be forced to pick either one of them to lose. If you read my season preview, you'll notice that I'm very high on both Houston and Buffalo: 

  • I have the Bills winning the AFC East
  • I have the Texans winning the AFC South
  • I have both of them finishing 11-6

Did I mention all of that just so I could plug my season preview again? Yes, I did. I'm not going to lie to you because it's Week 1 and I don't want to get things started off on the wrong foot (And if you haven't checked out my season preview, you can do that here). 

Now, let's get to the pick. Josh Allen has accomplished a lot in his NFL career, but there are two things he's never done: He's never won a Super Bowl, and he's never won in Houston, and I'm starting to feel like both of those streaks are going to continue this year. 

Including the playoffs, Allen has played four career games AT Houston, and not only has he gone 0-4, but the Bills have never topped 20 points. Allen has averaged just 183 passing yards per game when playing in Houston, and he's thrown just one touchdown pass in four games. He's also thrown two interceptions. 

Allen got sacked EIGHT times in a 23-19 loss to the Texans last season. If there's one defense that's always one step ahead of Allen and the Bills' offense, it's the one on Houston. 

Allen promotes a sleeping supplement, and I'm starting to think the only reason he actually uses it is so he doesn't have nightmares about the Texans' defense. 

If Josh Allen is Superman, then playing in Houston is his kryptonite, and I don't think that things are going to suddenly get better this year. The Bills do have a new head coach in Joe Brady, but I'm not sure that's going to help.  Before being promoted to head coach, Brady was the offensive coordinator in Buffalo in both 2024 and 2025. The Bills played at Houston in both seasons and Brady simply couldn't figure out DeMeco Ryan's defense. 

The Texans have one of the best defenses in the NFL, and they added Jadeveon Clowney, so they should be even better. 

If I trusted C.J. Stroud at all, I'd probably pick the Texans to win by 10 points, but I don't. However, I do trust the Texans defense to smother Josh Allen. 

THE PICK: Texans 20-19 over Bills

Dolphins at Raiders

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)

If you've ever gone to Vegas and lost all your money, then you kind of know what the Dolphins are going through right now. This team didn't lose all their money at a Vegas casino, but they basically threw away $180 million. 

The Dolphins will be taking a total dead cap hit of $181.6 million in 2026, which is more than 60% of this year's $301.2 million salary cap. If you're not familiar with the term "dead cap," that's a salary cap hit that you take for someone who's no longer on the team. The Dolphins' five BIGGEST cap hits this year all belong to players who are no longer on the team. 

Here's the list of players, along with their cap hit in Miami for 2026: 

Now I don't feel as bad about the time I lost $18 on the Snoop Dogg slot machine in Vegas. 

Since they have $181.6 million in dead cap space, that means the Dolphins only had $120 million to spend on the rest of their team, which is how you end up with a roster that has 12 rookies. Dolphins coach Jeff Hafley has already admitted that success in 2026 won't be defined by wins....

And that's exactly what you would say when you don't plan on winning many games. 

This might be the Dolphins' best chance at a win all season, but they're still going to lose by at least a touchdown. 

THE PICK: Raiders 20-13 over Dolphins

Broncos at Chiefs

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)

It's a good thing this game is being played on Monday, because I feel like both quarterbacks are probably thrilled about an extra day to rest/heal. On one side, you have Bo Nix, who fractured his ankle back in January. On the other side, you have Patrick Mahomes, who tore both his ACL and LCL back in December. 

Before making a pick for this game, I thought about tearing my ACL and breaking my ankle so I could get a sense of who had a tougher rehab, but my wife vetoed that idea.

Based on how other players have dealt with similar injuries, the quarterback I'm more concerned about is Mahomes. On Nix's end, we saw him play in the preseason, so we know he's game-ready. On Mahomes' end, he took every practice rep in training camp, but he didn't play a single snap during the preseason. 

What Mahomes is doing is essentially unprecedented: He's trying to play in a game roughly nine months after tearing his ACL. Mahomes suffered the injury back on Dec. 14, which I'm only noting, because Micah Parsons tore his ACL on the EXACT same day. 

The Packers' star has already said that he won't be back until Oct. 18 at the ABSOLUTE earliest, but it could end up being later than that. Falcons QB Michael Penix also tore his ACL last season. His injury happened on November 17, and he wasn't fully cleared to participate in 11-on-11 drills at practice until Aug. 22. So, Mahomes is recovering at an insane rate compared to Parsons, who will be nowhere near playing after nine months of rehab, and Penix, who was barely cleared for practice after nine months. And keep in mind that out of the three, Mahomes' injury was actually the worst, because he tore both his ACL and LCL. 

What I'm trying to say here is that even if Mahomes is on the field, I don't think he's quite going to be 100% yet and Denver's defense is the last one you want to be facing if you're not 100%. There's also a chance that the Chiefs won't have their starting left tackle (Josh Simmons), so if Mahomes still isn't 100% mobile, that could creat another issue. 

Mahomes still hasn't been cleared for game action, so there's still a small chance that Justin Fields ends up starting for Kansas City and if that happens... Actually, I don't care who starts for the Chiefs. I'm taking the Broncos either way. 

THE PICK: Broncos 23-21 over Chiefs

NFL Week 1 picks: All the rest

Bengals 23-16 over Buccaneers
Lions 30-20 over Saints
Titans 16-13 over Jets
Ravens 27-20 over Colts
Steelers 23-20 over Falcons
Bears 24-21 over Panthers
Jaguars 19-16 over Browns
Packers 22-19 over Vikings
Eagles 27-21 over Commanders
Chargers 31-21 over Cardinals
Cowboys 30-23 over Giants

Last Week

Best pick: If you just read through all of my picks and you're now thinking, "Wow, I wish I could read this guy multiple times per week for the rest of the season," well, you're in luck, because you can! I write the NFL newsletter here at CBSSports.com and you can subscribe by clicking here and entering your email address. And don't be selfish, feel free to sign up everyone you know. You can also follow me on the social media platform formerly known as Twitter here. 

Worst pick: Every week, I make some incredibly bad picks, and this is where those picks will go starting next week. You guys can't shame me if I shame myself first!

Final 2025 picks record (including playoffs)

Straight up: 173-111-1
Against the spread: 133-149-3

Final 2024 picks record (including playoffs)

Straight up: 189-96
Against the spread: 146-133-6

Guys, I'm not going to lie, I might have peaked two years ago. 

You can find John Breech on Facebook, Twitter or TikTok, and if he's not doing one of those things, he's probably checking to see how much a used 49ers helmet costs online. 

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