The NFL is very much a "what have you done for me lately?" enterprise, and that especially applies to head coaches. A down year can put some of the most highly regarded coaches in some hot water, and two down years in a row might earn them a pink slip. It differs from team to team, owner to owner and front office to front office, but the coaching carousel is busy every offseason. Last year's 10 coaching changes were especially high, but the year before, there were eight, and the year before that, there were seven.
We can expect at least a handful next year, too, whether it's via an in-season firing or an exit after the season. And while some might be expected, others won't be. Entering last year, it would have been impossible to predict Mike Tomlin stepping down as Steelers coach and John Harbaugh getting fired by the Ravens.
With one day until the 2026 season kicks off, we assess the five coaches with the hottest hot seats, as well as a few who could be a potential surprise split come season's end.
5. Shane Steichen, Colts
- 2025 record: 8-9, no postseason
- Career record: 25-26, 0 playoff berths
From this observer's perspective, Steichen has done a really good job when he had even a playable quarterback. He was 17-17 through two years with Anthony Richardson, Gardner Minshew and Joe Flacco as his quarterbacks and then surged to a 8-2 start last year with a healthy Daniel Jones. Then Jones popped up on the injury report with a fracture in his leg before tearing his Achilles a few weeks later. Last year's Colts finished 8-9.
Steichen's offensive smarts shouldn't be in doubt, but the circumstances around him aren't exactly favorable. Chris Ballard is about as "hot seat" as it gets for a GM considering the Colts have won one playoff game since he took over the role in 2017, and that postseason win was in 2018. Jones is coming off a torn Achilles, and even though he has looked good, time will tell if he's back. The AFC South has gotten much stronger with the Texans and Jaguars surging last year, and the AFC as a whole figures to be a dogfight.
If Ballard is gone, is Steichen gone? If Jones struggles, is Steichen gone? Even if Jones and the offense as a whole are good, is the defense good enough to support playoff aspirations? The Colts could look to start anew, and if they do, Steichen would immediately be an in-demand option next offseason, similar to how Kevin Stefanski got the Falcons job this offseason shortly after being fired by the Browns.
4. Aaron Glenn, Jets
- 2025 record: 3-14, no postseason
- Career record: 3-14, 0 playoff berths
Glenn's 2025 was, predictably, a disaster. The offense was awful as Justin Fields struggled. New York started Fields, Tyrod Taylor and, by the end of the season, undrafted rookie Brady Cook under center. Likely more disappointing for Glenn, a former cornerback and defensive coordinator, though, was his defense. The Jets became the first team ever to finish a season without an interception, allowed the highest passer rating in the NFL and finished 30th in defensive expected points added per play. There were constant breakdowns everywhere.
This offseason, New York focused on getting a ton of steady veterans in the door, not to lift the team to playoff contention, but to simply raise the floor. Still, there are worries. Glenn fired eight different assistant coaches, including both coordinators. However, he took nearly a month after the season ended to fire offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand, meaning the Jets had already missed out on even attempting to lure in some of the more sought-after play callers available. They eventually landed on Frank Reich, whose last two NFL offenses were among the worst in the league. The last time we saw him in the NFL, he didn't even survive one season as Carolina's head coach in 2023. He was out of football in 2024 and Stanford's interim coach in 2025.
The Jets are loaded with draft capital -- three first-rounders in 2027 -- and in need of a quarterback. They will also need to restock a defense currently featuring veterans on short deals. GM Darren Mougey could look to pair his new signal-caller with a new, offensive-minded head coach. At the very least, Glenn's team must look competent. He can get a pass, somewhat, for last year. That won't be the case again in 2026.
3. Todd Bowles, Buccaneers
- 2025 record: 8-9, no postseason
- Career record: 61-74 overall, 3 playoff berths | With Buccaneers: 35-33, 3 playoff berths
In four seasons in Tampa, Todd Bowles has recorded between eight and 10 wins every year. It looked like the Buccaneers were ready to leave that middle ground last year when they started 6-2, but they melted down over the second half of the year.
Bowles hangs his hat on the defensive side of the ball, but Tampa Bay was 20th in scoring defense last year, the worst mark by a Bowles-coached defense since his 2018 Buccaneers. On the offensive side of the ball, he's on his fifth coordinators in five years. He fired Byron Leftwich after his first year, lost Dave Canales to the Panthers' coaching job in 2024, lost Liam Coen to the Jaguars' coaching job in 2025 and fired Josh Grizzard earlier this year. Now, it's Zac Robinson, who was most recently with the Falcons. That hire is crucial for Bowles' future.
More than anything, though, the Buccaneers feel like a team in transition. Baker Mayfield is playing out the last year of his deal without an extension. Mike Evans is gone. Lavonte David is gone. There's a influx of young defensive talent, including Rueben Bain Jr. and Josiah Trotter in the first and second round, respectively, a strong offensive line and several intriguing players around Mayfield. It's a good -- not great -- roster in a bad division. Anything less than a return to the playoffs and a much-improved defense would have Bowles feeling the heat.
2. Dan Quinn, Commanders
- 2025 record: 5-12, no postseason
- Career record: 60-59 overall, 3 playoff berths | With Commanders: 17-17, 1 playoff berth
After leading Washington to a 12-5 record and its first NFC Championship game in 30+ years in 2024, Quinn went 5-12 last year. Injuries were a major factor, but Quinn admitted the standard slipped, too.
Quinn inherited a rough situation (really rough, in fact), and the roster still has significant holes in terms of top-end talent and depth. Laremy Tunsil's torn triceps didn't help. The 2026 season features a brutal start of at the Eagles, at the Cowboys and against the Seahawks, and if Washington starts slowly, the heat will really turn up on Quinn.
On one hand, Josh Harris has a history of being patient. As 76ers owner, he oversaw "The Process." On the other hand, the Commanders have failed to put a quality enough product around Jayden Daniels. Quinn is betting big on offensive coordinator David Blough and defensive coordinator Daronte Jones -- both first-time play callers -- to elevate their respective units. It could be argued that a bounce-back year, even if it doesn't result in a playoff berth, would be enough for him to stay another year. But even that is no certainty.
1. Zac Taylor, Bengals
- 2025 record: 6-11, no postseason
- Career record: 52-63-1, 2 playoff berths
There are simply no more excuses. After all, as Joe Burrow said in May: "We have everything we need in that locker room. We just gotta go and make it happen."
Cincinnati finally got serious about investing on defense, trading for Dexter Lawrence and signing Boye Mafe, Bryan Cook and Jonathan Allen. Burrow's entire offensive line is back, as are Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Chase Brown. Taylor is trying his best to diversify the attack by getting Burrow under center more, an aspect that could, hypothetically, help ... if it goes smoothly. Burrow has never exactly loved the concept, but it should be a boon for the run game.
Taylor is the only AFC North coach not in his first season. The Ravens, Browns and Steelers all moved on from coaches who had previously had major success. Harbaugh and Tomlin were both Super Bowl winners. Stefanski won two Coach of the Year awards. Taylor remains despite having accomplished neither. If this year isn't the year to return to the postseason -- the drought is up to three years now -- Taylor might not return, period.
