Predicting top 10 order of NFL Draft based on current records and future schedules: Who will pick No. 1?

Seven of last year's top 10 overall once again find themselves in the same conversation

By Josh Edwards

Oct 7, 2025 at 7:21 am ET • 5 min read

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CBSSports.com is tracking the 2026 NFL Draft order as it changes on a weekly basis. In an effort to project what the eventual order will look like upon the conclusion of the season, current win-loss record, as well as remaining schedules were considered. There are going to be injuries and trades that reshape the trajectory, but this is a snapshot on Oct. 7.

To share a bit of the simple, infallible formula used to derive these rankings, a win total was reached by calculating the number of winnable games (for example, the number of teams in a similar weight class and dividing it in half.) Those figures then allowed the 10 teams below to be sorted by those season-long projections. There are a few surprises, but the hope is that a look at the bigger picture will provide some perspective on the eventual 2026 NFL Draft order.

1. New York Giants (1-4)

Week 6 vs. Eagles
Week 7 at Broncos
Week 8 at Eagles
Week 9 vs. 49ers
Week 10 at Bears
Week 11 vs. Packers
Week 12 at Lions
Week 13 at Patriots
Week 14 Bye
Week 15 vs. Commanders
Week 16 vs. Vikings
Week 17 at Raiders
Week 18 vs. Cowboys

The Giants are .500 with Jaxson Dart installed as the team's starting quarterback, but the initial wave of positive momentum may be wearing off. The reality is that New York has its share of problems, including the season-ending injury to star wide receiver Malik Nabers, beyond the quarterback position. Brian Daboll's team has a brutal schedule over the remainder of the season with three games (and that may even be a stretch after how New England performed Sunday night) within its quadrant: the Patriots, Bears and Raiders.

2. Las Vegas Raiders (1-4)

Week 6 vs. Titans
Week 7 at Chiefs
Week 8 Bye
Week 9 vs. Jaguars
Week 10 at Broncos
Week 11 vs. Cowboys
Week 12 vs. Browns
Week 13 at Chargers
Week 14 vs. Broncos
Week 15 at Eagles
Week 16 at Texans
Week 17 vs. Giants
Week 18 vs. Chiefs

The Geno Smith-Raiders union has not been going as well as had been anticipated. Tight end Brock Bowers has been dealing with injuries and running back Ashton Jeanty has yet to get going consistently. There are three games against teams in the same quadrant as Las Vegas: the Titans, Browns and Giants. Smith will soon be 35 years old and the team could reasonably move on from him after this season if that is deemed necessary.

3. New York Jets (0-5)

Week 6 vs. Broncos
Week 7 vs. Panthers
Week 8 at Bengals
Week 9 Bye
Week 10 vs. Browns
Week 11 at Patriots
Week 12 at Ravens
Week 13 vs. Falcons
Week 14 vs. Dolphins
Week 15 at Jaguars
Week 16 at Saints
Week 17 vs. Patriots
Week 18 at Bills

The Jets at No. 3 overall may come as a surprise, but the roster sets up nicely for them to steal some wins. The Panthers, Bengals, Browns, Falcons, Dolphins, Saints and Patriots twice all seem like potential wins. Winning even half of those games moves them to four wins, which fell in that 4-6 range last year. New York will very likely be in the quarterback market as well.

4. Arizona Cardinals (2-3)

Week 6 at Colts
Week 7 vs. Packers
Week 8 Bye
Week 9 at Cowboys
Week 10 at Seahawks
Week 11 vs. 49ers
Week 12 vs. Jaguars
Week 13 at Buccaneers
Week 14 vs. Rams
Week 15 at Texans
Week 16 vs. Falcons
Week 17 at Bengals
Week 18 at Rams

Look at Arizona's schedule and find the easy remaining wins. Falcons? Bengals? What if Joe Burrow has returned? The vibes are sour in the desert and the snowball could continue rolling downhill after blowing a late lead to the Titans. The Cardinals may be faced with an overhaul this offseason should the situation not improve.

5. Tennessee Titans (1-4)

Week 6 at Raiders
Week 7 vs. Patriots
Week 8 at Colts
Week 9 vs. Chargers
Week 10 Bye
Week 11 vs. Texans
Week 12 vs. Seahawks
Week 13 vs. Jaguars
Week 14 at Browns
Week 15 at 49ers
Week 16 vs. Chiefs
Week 17 vs. Saints
Week 18 at Jaguars

The Titans already have a No. 1 overall pick at quarterback and Cam Ward has proven more than capable of delivering mesmerizing plays. Tennessee will have a handful of opportunities to defeat teams like the Raiders, Browns, Saints and Patriots. If they can get to three or four wins, they will be in this range.

6. Miami Dolphins (1-4)

Week 6 vs. Chargers
Week 7 at Browns
Week 8 at Falcons
Week 9 vs. Ravens
Week 10 vs. Bills
Week 11 vs. Commanders
Week 12 Bye
Week 13 vs. Saints
Week 14 at Jets
Week 15 at Steelers
Week 16 vs. Bengals
Week 17 vs. Buccaneers
Week 18 at Patriots

An injury to Tyreek Hill obviously sets Miami back in its bid to advance to the postseason. Coaching and front office changes are likely in the future and a quarterback shift may be in tow. The Dolphins have six games to be considered among the winnable quadrant. They could conceivably make it to four wins.

7. Carolina Panthers (2-3)

Week 6 vs. Cowboys
Week 7 at Jets
Week 8 vs. Bills
Week 9 at Packers
Week 10 vs. Saints
Week 11 at Falcons
Week 12 at 49ers
Week 13 vs. Rams
Week 14 Bye
Week 15 at Saints
Week 16 vs. Buccaneers
Week 17 vs. Seahawks
Week 18 at Buccaneers

Carolina found an extra win in the couch cushions Sunday against Miami. With already two wins on the season and upcoming matchups with the Jets, Saints (twice) and Falcons, the Panthers will probably find their way to at least four wins and, potentially five.

8. Cleveland Browns (1-4)

Week 6 at Steelers
Week 7 vs. Dolphins
Week 8 at Patriots
Week 9 Bye
Week 10 at Jets
Week 11 vs. Ravens
Week 12 at Raiders
Week 13 vs. 49ers
Week 14 vs. Titans
Week 15 at Bears
Week 16 vs. Bills
Week 17 vs. Steelers
Week 18 at Bengals

Cleveland has a stellar defense that should keep the Browns in a lot of games and potentially win a few in which they should not. There are also winnable affairs against the Dolphins, Patriots, Raiders, Jets, Titans, Bears and Bengals. Quarterback play has been volatile, to be kind, but Dillon Gabriel may prove to be a serviceable game manager. Fans should still expect the Browns to be in the quarterback market regardless of what happens with its rookies.

9. New Orleans Saints (1-4)

Week 6 vs. Patriots
Week 7 at Bears
Week 8 vs. Buccaneers
Week 9 at Rams
Week 10 at Panthers
Week 11 Bye
Week 12 vs. Falcons
Week 13 at Dolphins
Week 14 at Buccaneers
Week 15 vs. Panthers
Week 16 vs. Jets
Week 17 at Titans
Week 18 at Falcons

The Saints have competitive intradivisional games against the Falcons and Panthers, as well as contests against the Patriots, Bears, Dolphins, Jets and Titans. Spencer Rattler is actually playing solid football right now, so it will be interesting to see if New Orleans is in the quarterback market. New Orleans should be in the game against more than half of its remaining opponents.

10. Cincinnati Bengals (2-3)

Week 6 at Packers
Week 7 vs. Steelers
Week 8 vs. Jets
Week 9 vs. Bears
Week 10 Bye
Week 11 at Steelers
Week 12 vs. Patriots
Week 13 at Ravens
Week 14 at Bills
Week 15 vs. Ravens
Week 16 at Dolphins
Week 17 vs. Cardinals
Week 18 vs. Browns

Cincinnati's outlook is potentially the most difficult to project given the injury to quarterback Joe Burrow. In theory, Burrow could return with three or four games remaining if there are stakes for which the Bengals are still playing. Those final three games all set up to be potential wins, which could drastically impact Cincinnati's draft outlook.

The 2026 NFL Draft will take place from April 23-25 in Pittsburgh. More draft coverage can be found at CBSSports.com, including the weekly mock drafts and a regularly available look at the eligible prospects.