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NBA offense by and large improves over time. A decade ago, the average NBA team scored 105.6 points per 100 possessions. Five years later, that figure increased to 110.6. Last season, it was 114.5. And yet, that wasn't the all-time high. In fact, we saw a 0.8 points per 100 possession decline leaguewide from the 2023-24 historic high of 115.3. The average NBA team posted a worse field goal percentage, 3-point percentage, free-throw rate and true shooting percentage than it did in the 2023-24 season.

So this begs a question: Has NBA offense peaked? Have defenses finally caught on to the league's 3-point-heavy modern offenses? Well, no. This was actually a pretty natural balance to what we saw in the 2023-24 season, when league-wide offense dipped by nearly two points per 100 possessions after the All-Star break because the league began allowing defenses to play more physically. Some of those subtle rule changes persisted into last season, but offenses started to adjust to them. It's not as easy to score as it was two years ago, but offenses are learning how to navigate this new, more physical environment.

There are a lot of ways in which they're doing that, but the most notable is their shot diet. Last season gave us the biggest year-over-over increase in average 3-point volume since 2019, as the average team took 2.5 more 3-pointers per game than it did in 2024. Of course, this isn't a catch-all solution to offensive problems. Denver took the fewest 3s in the league and ranked fourth on offense. The Knicks ranked 27th in 3-point attempts and fifth in offense.

That's fairly encouraging for a league that drew plenty of criticism for its 3-point volume last season. Its proof that there's more than one way to skin the proverbial cat here. Take Houston's double-big alignment, perhaps the least-spaced lineup a contender used last season. It scored 125.7 points per 100 possession, according to Cleaning the Glass, which put it in the 98th percentile among all NBA lineup combinations. You can win shooting 3s. You can win in the mid-range, as the Knicks and Pacers so often did. You can win on the glass as the Rockets are trying to do.

Keep this in mind as we rank all 30 NBA offenses. Talent is of course key, but don't sleep on intent. A team can go far by putting its players in the right places and taking advantage of the trends guiding its opposition. These rankings will attempt to encompass all conceivable factors, including likelihood of injury, expected lineup decisions and age-related improvement or decline. We are not ranking which offenses are the best in a vacuum. We are attempting to predict what the final offensive rating leaderboard will look like. With that in mind, let's dive in.

1. Denver Nuggets

  • 2024-25 offense rating: 118.9
  • 2024-25 offensive ranking: No. 4

The calculus here is relatively simple. Denver's offense is always great when Nikola Jokić is on the floor. In fact, in each of the past five seasons, they've scored more points per possession with Jokić on the court than that season's No. 1 offense posted for the entire year. The issue has always been with their bench, but the offseason additions of Jonas Valančiūnas, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Bruce Brown should meaningfully improve that bench before even considering the creation upgrade Cam Johnson brings over Michael Porter Jr. There's so much low-hanging fruit for new head coach David Adelman to pluck as well. The Nuggets ranked dead last in the NBA in 3-point attempts last season. If they can just creep closer to average, their offense should meaningfully improve from there. All of the ingredients for a No. 1 offense are here.

2. Cleveland Cavaliers

  • 2024-25 offense rating: 121
  • 2024-25 offensive ranking: No. 1

Cleveland just had the second-best offensive regular season in NBA history. Losing Ty Jerome hurts, but he was somewhat duplicative of what their other guards already brought. Lonzo Ball injects some very helpful pace into the NBA's seventh-slowest team from a year ago. They'll have De'Andre Hunter for the entire season, and Larry Nance Jr. offers a bit more front-court versatility than they had last season. Injuries are the risk here, but Kenny Atkinson's scheme fit this roster like a glove last season. Cleveland should have one of the NBA's best offenses next year.

3. New York Knicks

  • 2024-25 offense rating: 117.3
  • 2024-25 offensive ranking: No. 5

The Knicks might have the most ways to beat an opponent of any offense in the NBA. Getting Mitchell Robinson back for double-big lineups should reinvigorate their offensive rebounding, an area in which they led the league comfortably during the 2023-24 season. Yet with Karl-Anthony Towns in place and Mike Brown seemingly more open-minded about lineups than Tom Thibodeau was, they can also comfortably play five-out looks with three shooters to maximize the Towns-Jalen Brunson pick-and-roll. Brunson is one of the best late-clock and late-game creators in the NBA, and the preseason returns have been pretty encouraging on Mike Brown's less rigid offense. Cleveland and New York also get the benefit of playing an Eastern Conference schedule, which should help them pad their numbers compared to their Western Conference counterparts. 

4. Oklahoma City Thunder

  • 2024-25 offense rating: 119.2
  • 2024-25 offensive ranking: No. 3

The Thunder have pretty much everything the Knicks do on offense, but in many cases their version is better. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander won MVP last year, putting him a level above Brunson. Jalen Williams is a better wing creator than Mikal Bridges or OG Anunoby, though we'll see how his recovering wrist looks early in the season. Their double-big lineup with Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren thrived offensively thanks in large part to stellar offensive rebounding numbers. They never turn the ball over. That look will be back this year. The concerns here are pretty minor, but they exist. How healthy will Williams be early in the season? How much of an effort will they make to incorporate rookie Nikola Topić when he returns? How much harder is their West schedule compared to New York's and Cleveland's in the East? And how much do they really care about running up regular-season wins? They'll be somewhere near the top of the league, but with all of those things in mind, fourth feels like the appropriate compromise.

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5. Los Angeles Lakers

  • 2024-25 offense rating: 115
  • 2024-25 offensive ranking: No. 11

They have skinny Luka Dončić. Everything starts there. In 2020 Dončić's Mavericks posted what was then the best offensive rating in NBA history with no other All-Stars on the team. He's that transformative of an individual shot-creator. Adding LeBron James and Austin Reaves is the icing on the cake. No team has more individual creation than the Lakers, and that insulates them against injuries like the one James is recovering from now. Yes, the Lakers were somewhat underwhelming offensively last season, but they were integrating Dončić midseason. Now they've had a full training camp to build around. He has a real offensive center in Deandre Ayton, and while he's not quite the lob threat Daniel Gafford or Dereck Lively were, he's a vast overall improvement on the small-ball looks the Lakers relied on last year, especially if Ayton is motivated to prove himself in a contract year. There are some reasonable concerns here. Specifically, there's very little off-ball shooting in place here. Everyone wants to dribble. They won't always be able to. And of course, we don't know what James will look like in his age-41 season. But the Lakers were a candidate to rank No. 1 before the James injury dampened enthusiasm slightly. 

6. Golden State Warriors

  • 2024-25 offense rating: 114.2
  • 2024-25 offensive ranking: No. 16

The post-Kevin Durant Warriors have been deceptively mortal offensively. They haven't ranked higher than ninth since he left, and were somehow 16th during the 2022 championship campaign. Much like the Nuggets, though, most of those issues arise when they don't have their best player. Golden State was 13.4 points per 100 possessions worse offensively without Stephen Curry last season, and in the past, even during the championship years, that figure has been bigger. You're making a meaningful bet on either a Jonthan Kuminga trade or Brandin Podziemski taking a step as a bench-unit creator here if you think the Warriors will rank this high, but obviously, that's what I'm doing. It helps that the Warriors should be a good deal better with their starters on the floor this season. Lineups featuring Curry and Jimmy Butler, which we only saw from February-April, ranked in the 88th percentile offensively last season, according to Cleaning the Glass. Al Horford unlocks so much for Golden State as a shooter, passer and screener. The Warriors are always deceptively strong on the glass, and only the Thunder scored more points off of turnovers last season. Both the Warriors and our next team are at risk of age-related decline, but they both look very strong on paper.

7. Los Angeles Clippers

  • 2024-25 offense rating: 114.3
  • 2024-25 offensive ranking: No. 15

Last season, the Clippers were pretty intentionally a defense-first team. Adding John Collins, Chris Paul and Bradley Beal will have defensive consequences, but the offense figures to take a leap with them in place. They were another high-end offense that struggled without their best players. The James Harden and Ivica Zubac-less minutes were mostly a mess for the Clippers, but bringing in Beal and Paul as bench creators and Brook Lopez as a legitimate, NBA-caliber backup center should help on that front. The hope here is that Kawhi Leonard plays more than the 37 games he participated in last season, though it's unclear what sort of mental toll the investigation into possible cap circumvention hanging over this team takes on them as the year progresses. The spacing will improve simply by virtue of playing Kris Dunn and Derrick Jones Jr. fewer minutes, though if that is indeed how this plays out, don't be surprised if the Clippers dip a bit as an offensive rebounding team. They were already bad on the front, and with less athleticism on the floor, they might prefer to devote even more resources to transition defense. Still, this team is deeper and more offensively inclined than it was a year ago, so expect a jump in the rankings if they stay healthy.

8. Minnesota Timberwolves

  • 2024-25 offense rating: 115.7
  • 2024-25 offensive ranking: No. 8

From October through December of last season, the Timberwolves ranked 22nd in offense. From January through April, they ranked fifth, seemingly solving the fit issues that the Anthony Edwards-Julius Randle pairing presented early on. That required changes and growth all around the roster. Randle trimmed his mid-range frequency and turnover rate. Edwards took (and made) far more 3s than he ever had. It helped that Jaden McDaniels took a bit of a leap as well, averaging almost 15 points per game from February on by attacking the basket more aggressively than he ever has. It doesn't always look pretty. There's a concerning lack of playmaking here as Mike Conley ages, and the hope is that Edwards takes a step in that regard this season. But on a pretty simple level, if you win on the offensive glass and have a lot of players that can create their own shot, your offense is probably going to be pretty good. 

9. Houston Rockets

  • 2024-25 offense rating: 114.9
  • 2024-25 offensive ranking: No. 12

Few teams have a wider range of possible offensive outcomes than the Rockets. Let's say Amen Thompson grows into his higher-usage role, Alperen Sengun builds off of his stellar EuroBasket performance and Reed Sheppard is a 40% 3-point shooter on reasonable volume. Throw in the Kevin Durant addition and this could be a top-five offense. There's another plausible world in which the league adjusts to Houston's jumbo lineups and somehow manages to limit their behemoth offensive rebounding rate (36.3% last season, more than three percentage points higher than any other team, and 50.3% when Sengun and Steven Adams played together) while the young players struggle to fill Fred VanVleet's shoes. In that scenario, the Rockets are below average. I lean slightly towards the former, but the caveat here is that Houston's margin for injury is very small. The shooting and individual creation will improve through Durant's presence alone, but Sheppard and Aaron Holiday are really the only traditionally guard-sized dribblers on the team. Durant and Sengun can certainly handle some creation responsibility, but the sheer lack of guards on the roster could make things difficult across and 82-game grind. Still, the roster is young and ready to improve, and Durant will open up so much that it seems reasonably safe to assume that someone between Sheppard, Thompson and Sengun can pick up enough of VanVleet's ball-handling to keep this offense afloat.

10. Atlanta Hawks

  • 2024-25 offense rating: 113.7
  • 2024-25 offensive ranking: No. 17

For years the Hawks were good on offense and bad on defense. They attempted to rectify that by grabbing every big wing they could find. They've had success on that front, but those same big wings have largely been iffy shooters. The trio of Dyson Daniels, Zaccharie Risacher and Jalen Johnson made around 34% of their 3s last season, so the Hawks addressed that by grabbing a great shooting center (Kristaps Porziņģis) and two shooting wings (Luke Kennard and Nickeil Alexander-Walker). Now, Atlanta has achieved balance. It's still going to be a Trae Young pick-and-roll fest, but one in which the Hawks can more comfortably mix and match lineups to find the right combinations. When they need more shooting, Porziņģis addresses it. When they have enough on the perimeter, they can spread out around Young and the bouncier Onyeka Okongwu. Those big wings are all capable ball-handlers, which not only eases the bench issues the Hawks have always had, but gives Atlanta more optionality offensively. They don't have to be the Young show on every possession, and that extra ball-handling helped them get to the line quite a bit last season. Health is a risk between Johnson and Porziņģis, but this is a deep and versatile enough group to handle some injuries.

11. Milwaukee Bucks

  • 2024-25 offense rating: 115.1
  • 2024-25 offensive ranking: No. 10

Playing Giannis Antetokounmpo at point guard with four shooters around him is a pretty straightforward offensive formula. It was obviously a small sample, but point-Giannis lineups after Damian Lillard's blood clot last year posted a 127 offensive rating in 385 minutes. Myles Turner is a big offensive upgrade over Brook Lopez. Kevin Porter Jr. was good for them after his deadline acquisition, and Cole Anthony was a solid get for the minimum. As much as they'll miss Lillard's individual scoring, the offense as a whole, with Giannis, is going to work. But during that same 11-game stretch without Lillard, Milwaukee's offense dipped by almost 15 points per 100 possessions whenever Giannis sat. That's the issue here. How much rest can the Bucks get away with giving him? What happens if he misses two or three weeks with an ankle sprain? Remember, over the past seven seasons, he has always missed between nine and 19 games. There's a real chance the offense craters when he does. There isn't another starting-caliber shot-creator on this roster. Doc Rivers teams never get offensive rebounds, nor are they especially creative. The Bucks ranked in the bottom-10 in both passes per game and average distance traveled on offense, per NBA.com tracking data. Both numbers are iffy without context, but they just go to show how much the Bucks rely on Antetokounmpo to generate their offense. It should be good when he's playing and bad when he isn't, so this really comes down to how much of him we see this season.

12. Philadelphia 76ers

  • 2024-25 offense rating: 111
  • 2024-25 offensive ranking: No. 23

Count me as the last person on the internet that still has some faith in Joel Embiid. Last season was an unmitigated disaster. The year before that he averaged more points than minutes, and before that he won MVP. There is a middle ground between those extremes, and there is so much perimeter talent here that it would take another onslaught of injuries to slow this offense down completely. Jared McCain got Rookie of the Year votes despite playing in 23 games, and he's still the fourth guard on this depth chart. Paul George has become an afterthought. Even amid last year's mess, they still took the right shots, ranking sixth in free-throw rate, eighth in percentage of shots within three feet of the rim and 13th in 3-point attempt rate. Nobody's saying Embiid has another MVP in him. But unless he's once again limited to 15 or 20 underwhelming games and the rest of the firepower here is similarly hampered, this offense is going to be pretty good.

13. Orlando Magic

  • 2024-25 offense rating: 108.9
  • 2024-25 offensive ranking: No. 27

The Magic have had a bottom-10 offense 13 years in a row. There is literally not an active member of the Magic that has played for or against a league-average Magic offense. This is the year that changes. Jalen Suggs' health is a concern here. Despite his inconsistent shooting, his playmaking on both sides of the ball is an important source of offense. But you don't give up four first-round picks for a player without expecting an immediate impact. Desmond Bane's elite shooting will go a long way for an offense that ranked last by a mile in 3-point percentage a year ago. His secondary playmaking helps as well, and adding Tyus Jones gives them a more traditional point guard when one is needed. Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero both took meaningful steps last season, and even despite the poor shooting and injuries, the Magic had the NBA's second-best free-throw rate and sixth-most points per game off of turnovers last season. They won't be a great shooting team, but they get to the line, get to the basket and generate points off of turnovers through their elite defense. So long as the shooting is reasonable, the offense is going to improve.

14. Detroit Pistons

  • 2024-25 offense rating: 114.6
  • 2024-25 offensive ranking: No. 14

The Pistons didn't really excel in any one area offensively. They didn't crack the top 10 in free-throw rate, 3-point attempt rate, 3-point percentage, rim rate or offensive rebounding. They ranged from pretty good to below-average in basically everything, and it came together to form a passable offense because Cade Cunningham was good enough to lift an otherwise defensively-inclined roster. He'll do the same this season, but there are roster questions beyond him. Can they properly space the floor with Amen Thompson playing in a perimeter slot? Can the returning Jaden Ivey match the secondary ball-handling Schröder brought after the deadline? Can he maintain his encouraging shooting improvement from before his injury? There's certainly room for growth here. The roster is young and the offseason tweaks made sense in light of the complicated Malik Beasley situation. They're counting on Duncan Robinson to match the remarkable shooting season Beasley just had, but he's no slouch himself. Ultimately, your perception of the Detroit offense will come down to how you rate Cunningham. At the level he played last season, it's hard to see Detroit slipping further than this.

15. Boston Celtics

  • 2024-25 offense rating: 119.5
  • 2024-25 offensive ranking: No. 2

I don't know what to do with Boston. There's a world in which a couple of ankle sprains in November and December create an impromptu tank. There's a world in which Boston's overall offensive structure is so sound that they land in the top 10 even without Jayson Tatum. They were the first team in NBA history to take more 3s than 2s last season. Expect them to become the first team to ever shoot 50 3s per game this year. Only the Thunder turn the ball over less than the do. They also never get to the rim or the free-throw line. Maybe they still have enough shooting to thrive in that structure. Payton Pritchard and Anfernee Simons have obvious deficiencies defensively, but they can certainly shoot, and if they make 3s at anything resembling the rate they have in the past, maybe they can make up for their talent deficit by giving the unheralded big men who will play this season (notably Neemias Queta) more chances to score as a roller against defenses that are stretched thin. The middle feels like an appropriate compromise, but they could really go either way.

16. Sacramento Kings

  • 2024-25 offense rating: 115.9
  • 2024-25 offensive ranking: No. 7

Does the roster make much sense? No. They needed a point guard following the De'Aaron Fox trade, but in Dennis Schröder, they got less of a playmaker and more of an individual creator, and in Russell Westbrook they got, well, Russell Westbrook. The back court is crowded with Schröder, Westbrook, Malik Monk, Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan all used to having the ball more than they'll be able to here. Speaking of which, will Keegan Murray ever get the on-ball reps he needs to take the next step? He'll miss the beginning of the season due to a UCL tear. But truthfully, this is just the floor for the amount of talent the Kings have on offense. If you have Domantas Sabonis, some shooting and a bunch of players who can create their own shots, you're going to score points. You'd hope for better shot-selection here, as the Kings neither shot enough 3s nor drew enough fouls last season, but at least they never turn the ball over. They'll brute force their way to a decent offense, but considering they ranked seventh last season, they could be a good deal better if not for these front office own goals.

17. San Antonio Spurs

  • 2024-25 offense rating: 113.5
  • 2024-25 offensive ranking: No. 19

The Spurs are banking a lot offensively on Victor Wembanyama's shooting, because their three primary guards (Stephon Castle, De'Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper) range from iffy to nonexistent shooters. Rookie Carter Bryant has a long way to go as a shooter as well, so space is going to be at a premium. But there is just so much creation here. Wembanyama looks so much more confident with the ball now than he did a year or two ago, and the strength that's added will only make him more imposing. The guards can get to the rim, and they'll love throwing Wembanyama lobs. Ultimately, at least for now, the whole is probably going to be less than the sum of its parts. As this group figures out its identity and grows, that will likely change. But they badly need more shooting before they can be an above-average offense.

18. Dallas Mavericks

  • 2024-25 offense rating: 113.7
  • 2024-25 offensive ranking: No. 18

This is the weirdest offense in the NBA. D'Angelo Russell is the only proven guard here. Cooper Flagg has flashed point guard skills. Jason Kidd loves empowering young stars as ball-handlers, with Giannis Antetokounmpo being the primary example. But that's much more of a developmental tactic than a winning one. It is just exceedingly rare that a rookie can be the primary ball-handler on a good offense even if his individual numbers are good. When Luka Dončić won Rookie of the Year, he ranked 20th. Looking for such a player on a decent team? A year later, Ja Morant's Grizzlies ranked 21st despite reaching the Play-In. Flagg has MVP potential. It probably isn't going to lead to great team offense in Year 1, especially with the iffy shooting that will come out of double-big lineups. Those units are probably going to have to rebound at close to the level that Houston has with its double-big look to survive, except no Jason Kidd-led Mavericks team has ever ranked higher than 23rd in offensive rebounding. Some of that is personnel. Some of it is preference. His teams tend to focus more on transition defense. What sort of concessions will Dallas be willing to make defensively in the name of offense? Because Russell and Klay Thompson is simultaneously the only viable offensive backcourt and explicitly not a viable defensive one, as Russell has always been a poor defender and Thompson, at this point, can really only defend bigger forwards. This roster is just too unbalanced in its current condition, and if Davis suffers any of his frequent injuries, they lose the talent surplus they think will get them through this. Could Kyrie Irving address some of these issues? Sure. We just have no idea when or if he'll return.

19. Chicago Bulls

  • 2024-25 offense rating: 113.2
  • 2024-25 offensive ranking: No. 20

If there's going to be a surprise team to emerge with a top-10 offense, it would be the Bulls. They were 17-10 after the All-Star break, including a blistering period in March that came against a Charmin-soft schedule. While they lack the obvious star power that teams above them have, they do have a distinct style that matches their talent. They're the fastest team in the NBA and they hoist a billion 3s. It's straightforward, mathematically sound and fun to watch. Now, can you trust Josh Giddey to create a good shot late in a high-leverage game? Probably not. He still has a ways to go off of the ball even with last year's shooting growth. But if you just need someone to generate night-to-night regular-season offense? He's your man, and removing Zach LaVine from the equation also empowered Coby White, who averaged almost 28 points per game in March. Toss in a possible Year 2 leap for Matas Buzelis and you've got an offense that's light on star power but reasonably high on upside.

20. Phoenix Suns

  • 2024-25 offense rating: 114.7
  • 2024-25 offensive ranking: No. 13

Shooting guards and centers. That's it. Even the players who aren't centers or shooting guards are spiritually centers or shooting guards. Dillon Brooks has the heart of a chucker. If Ryan Dunn's shooting doesn't improve, opposing teams will guard him with a center. Now, fortunately, those shooting guards and centers are reasonably good shooting guards and centers. Devin Booker is a star. Grayson Allen has led the NBA in 3-point percentage. Jalen Green is still a very athletic No. 2 overall pick despite getting dumped by Houston. Mark Williams is a killer offensive center when he's healthy. There's talent here, and it's not entirely devoid of skill diversity. But there's just not enough playmaking here or reliability in the front court to assume the offense as a whole is actually going to be, well, good. It'll have good nights and stretches, but it's just not clear yet how all of these overlapping pieces are going to actually function together.

21. Memphis Grizzlies

  • 2024-25 offense rating: 117.2
  • 2024-25 offensive ranking: No. 6

Throw out basically everything that happened last year. They changed the scheme completely, adopting a revolutionary offense devoid of pick-and-roll. It worked until it didn't. Coaches got fired as a result. Now we're back to something a bit more ordinary, and that's disappointing, because the Grizzlies right now don't really have the personnel to execute "ordinary." Ja Morant is too unreliable from a health perspective. They were wise to go out and add a second high-level bench creator in Ty Jerome, but he comes with plenty of his own risks. The entire front court is hurt at the moment, so we can't say with much certainty that they'll be able to maintain the offensive rebounding that has been their trademark in recent years. Oh, and Desmond Bane is gone. This is a transitional year for Memphis. A lot of it will be spent rediscovering an offensive identity it can keep moving forward.

22. Toronto Raptors

  • 2024-25 offense rating: 109.6
  • 2024-25 offensive ranking: No. 26

The Raptors been near the top of the league in passes per game in both years under Darko Rajaković, and they're a strong offensive rebounding team. They never take 3s, but they've never really had the players to take many 3s. Will that change this season? Brandon Ingram tends to take six or seven 3s per game when he's playing for a contract and three or four when he isn't. Would they bench RJ Barrett for Gradey Dick to improve their spacing? Scottie Barnes regressing on that front is a big blow. There's the danger of a cap dump here, as the Raptors are somehow over the luxury tax for this weird mishmash of a roster. Health is always a concern as well, or at least has been in recent years, and their last few notable draft picks (Collin Murray-Boyles and Jamal Shead) are much more defensively-inclined. There's enough talent here to survive, but it's hard to imagine too much more than that.

23. Indiana Pacers

  • 2024-25 offense rating: 115.4
  • 2024-25 offensive ranking: No. 9

Indiana is far likelier than Boston to pivot into a gap-year tank. Boston's offensive identity is schematic. Indiana's was based on a single player, Tyrese Haliburton, who is out. You could even argue they lost their second-most important offensive player purely from a schematic perspective in Myles Turner because of how rare it is to find centers who can shoot and score inside. They're going to have to reinvent themselves completely for a single year. Andrew Nembhard is an awesome supporting piece, but there just isn't real evidence that he can be a primary point guard on a good offense. Heck, even his scoring is a bit suspect. Compare his regular-season and playoff shooting numbers. The difference is jarring. Bennedict Mathurin is playing for a contract. The Pacers will give him chances to post numbers, and Rick Carlisle is a genius. He'll find ways to make the most of what he has. He just has so much less than he did a year ago that it seems likelier that they ultimately accept defeat on a lost season.

24. New Orleans Pelicans

  • 2024-25 offense rating: 109.7
  • 2024-25 offensive ranking: No. 25

There are two different conversations we need to have here. There's the first one that covers what the team looks like healthy, because hey, skinny Zion Williamson, that's potentially interesting. Except for the fact that this team is still sorely short on shooters. None of the centers shoot. Herb Jones is only intermittently guarded on the perimeter. Jeremiah Fears is a work in progress. How much will Jordan Hawkins get to play? His role has fluctuated quite a bit across his first two seasons. It's going to be hard to take advantage of even the best version of Williamson with this kind of spacing. For now, the only reliable shooters we can trust to play major minutes are Jordan Poole and Trey Murphy. And then there's the other conversation we need to have about the Pelicans, the one we have every year, where we get to December and half of the team is hurt and it's just an all-around bummer. It's a shame, too. Williamson was quietly great down the stretch last season. Trey Murphy is growing into a star. There's talent here. It's just a dangerous combination of unlucky and incompatible.

25. Portland Trail Blazers

  • 2024-25 offense rating: 111
  • 2024-25 offensive ranking: No. 22

There are actually things to like in Portland. They're a great offensive rebounding team thanks to Donovan Clingan. They have a lot of high-IQ supporting pieces. Deni Avdija took a meaningful step last season. But who's driving the bus here? Not Scoot Henderson, who will miss the beginning of the season and presumably have to earn his minutes from there. Could it be Shaedon Sharpe? He's had an impressive training camp by all accounts and has star-caliber tools. But we just don't know who the engine is going to be. There are a lot of good role players and no obvious high-usage scorer. If one of the younger players pops, the Blazers have more offensive potential than this. But we've been saying that for a few years now. Someone needs to prove it before they can climb up lists like this.

26. Miami Heat

  • 2024-25 offense rating: 112.4
  • 2024-25 offensive ranking: No. 21

There was a disturbing lifelessness from the Heat offensively, especially late in games. They ranked 27th in fourth-quarter offense, and they got progressively worst as the year dragged on. The Jimmy Butler drama was obviously a component of those struggles, but he also highlighted problems that had been growing for years. This equal-opportunity offense requires a level of shooting and overall talent that the Heat just don't have anymore. Tyler Herro making the All-Star Game was nice, but it was in the East, and nobody would mistake him for a traditional star guard. He's at his best working off of another high-level scorer, as Butler was. With Herro out early in the season and rumors of a schematic reinvention swirling, the Heat have an uphill climb ahead of them on offense.

27. Charlotte Hornets

  • 2024-25 offense rating: 106.7
  • 2024-25 offensive ranking: No. 29

LaMelo Ball is rarely healthy. Brandon Miller missed most of last year. They still don't really have a center, and while that's going to manifest more noticeably on defense, it matters offensively as well. It's not like the Hornets have the personnel to play small and win solely on the basis of shooting. It's their second year under Charles Lee. The hope here is that they can successfully adopt a more definable system and take a meaningful step towards at least respectability. But when you're never healthy, never get to the line and now that Mark Williams is gone, will probably never get offensive rebounds either, the path to being a good offense just gets so narrow. There are only so many crazy shots Ball can make. Kon Knueppel will help, but it feels like they're at least another year away.

28. Utah Jazz

  • 2024-25 offense rating: 110.2
  • 2024-25 offensive ranking: No. 24

Does anyone believe Lauri Markkanen will still be on the team in February? If the answer is no, the only other player on the team who averaged at least 12 points per game is Keyonte George, who did so shooting 39.1% from the field. They're tanking. When you're tanking, you rid yourself of valuable players. Some of the young guys will grow. Ace Bailey has looked very promising in the preseason. But this team is built to lose and that is what it will do. Give Will Hardy some credit. The Jazz somehow ranked seventh in free-throw rate and 3-point attempt rate and sixth in offensive rebounding rate last season. They're well-coached enough to do the right things. They just don't have the players yet to do those things at a high enough level to actually win.

29. Brooklyn Nets

  • 2024-25 offense rating: 108.1
  • 2024-25 offensive ranking: No. 28

The Nets will enter the season with only seven players on their roster with at least four years of experience. That means at least half of their roster will essentially be comprised of players either literally on rookie contracts or at least in that age range. Nobody on this roster averaged four assists per game in the NBA last season, and the team leader, Cam Thomas, averaged less than one pass per minute as recently as the 2023-24 season despite ostensibly being a point guard (or at least having the ball as often as one does). These passing numbers seem notable as their highest-paid player is Michael Porter Jr., who is used to shooting off of passes from Nikola Jokić. At least the Nets are properly committed to the tank this year. 

30. Washington Wizards

  • 2024-25 offense rating: 105.8
  • 2024-25 offensive ranking: No. 30

They have CJ McCollum. Corey Kispert is a good shooter. That's about all I've got here. Khris Middleton is never healthy. The young players are all projects picked mostly for athletic traits that have shown promise, but haven't yet grown into steady production. They ranked 29th in 3-point percentage, never got to the line, turned the ball over constantly and were a below-average offensive rebounding team. Keep an eye on the individual development of those recent draft picks. As a group, the Wizards still have a ways to go.