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Let's do a little math, if you don't mind.

We're inside of two months to go -- closer to six weeks, actually -- and by the looks of it, every team has 40-45 games left. Divide that number by five, the size of the standard starting rotation, and you can deduce that every starting pitcher has 8-9 turns left. Multiply that number by five, just to give us a conservative estimate, and ... OK, we're going in circles now.

The point is that every starting pitcher, if he stays on his regular turn, has something like 40-45 innings still to go.

That may not seem like many, but conventional wisdom suggests that a starting pitcher, particularly one on the younger side, shouldn't exceed his previous year's workload by more than 30-40 innings. It's more of a guideline than a rule and can obviously be tailored to a pitcher's individual circumstances, but the point is that many of the pitchers we've come to trust in Fantasy are approaching that number already. They may not have another 40-45 innings to give.

The answer isn't always a full-blown shutdown, wherein a team hits the brakes on a pitcher's season and puts him on ice until next year, but skipped turns and shortened outings can be just as damaging for Fantasy. Among the pitchers we actually care about, I've identified these 18 as being the most at risk.

Note: Listed innings totals include minor-league and postseason contributions. This year's are up to date through Monday, Aug. 11.

Pitchers at risk
TB Tampa Bay • #11 • Age: 26
Risk level
High
This year
128
Last year
118.2
Previous high
118.2
It's been an up-and-down season for Shane Baz, but in what's shaping up to be a lost season for the Rays, they should count it as a win that the one-time crown jewel of their farm system has managed to stay healthy. They should also take the necessary steps to keep him that way.
CIN Cincinnati • #26 • Age: 22
Risk level
High
This year
100.1
Last year
100
Previous high
100
A report came out Monday saying that manager Terry Francona had met with Chase Burns to discuss workload restrictions, and while the report didn't go into specifics, the Reds will soon have a rotation surplus with Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo nearing a return from the IL. A full-blown shutdown seems unlikely while they're competing for a playoff spot, but they have an uphill battle as far as that goes.
MIA Miami • #27 • Age: 27
Risk level
High
This year
115
Last year
119
Previous high
128
Edward Cabrera's breakthrough has been a long time coming, and now that the Marlins have developed him into a major asset, they're not going to jeopardize that asset in a lost season. He'll get a chance to set a new high in innings but will likely go into shutdown mode at some point in September.
KC Kansas City • #65 • Age: 26
Risk level
High
This year
125.2
Last year
128.2
Previous high
128.2
As a relative soft-tosser with a fastball that averages 92 mph, Noah Cameron has the makings of a workhorse for the Royals, but there's no reason for them to push the envelope with him once they drop out of the playoff race, which seems likely. He'll likely be limited to 150-160 innings.
BOS Boston • #35 • Age: 26
Risk level
Low
This year
152.1
Last year
146
Previous high
146
The Red Sox are in a tight spot with Garrett Crochet. They need their ace for their playoff push, but they have a lot of money tied up in him long term and presumably want him to have something left in the tank for the playoffs. Perhaps they'll find opportunities to skip him or abbreviate some of his outings, but it'll be difficult if they're having to fight tooth and nail.
BOS Boston • #54 • Age: 31
Risk level
Low
This year
117.2
Last year
0
Previous high
184.1
Lucas Giolito's situation is similar to Crochet's except that we've already seen him take on a big workload multiple times, including as recently as 2023. Still, it's customary to limit a pitcher's workload in his first year back from UCL surgery, and the Red Sox might have an easier time spacing out Giolito's starts down the stretch than Crochet's (since, you know, he isn't as good).
NYM N.Y. Mets • #35 • Age: 32
Risk level
Medium
This year
122.1
Last year
63
Previous high
136.1
As a longtime reliever for the Yankees, Clay Holmes is already deep into uncharted territory workload-wise. He hasn't quite reached his career high in innings, but that came way back in 2016 as a minor leaguer in the Pirates system. His starts have trended shorter and sloppier in recent months, raising the possibility that the Mets shift him to the bullpen for their playoff run.
ATH Athletics • #57 • Age: 27
Risk level
Medium
This year
104.2
Last year
99
Previous high
119.2
While we continue to sort out whether Jacob Lopez is genuinely a Fantasy asset, the innings issue could eventually make the point moot. Because he's a 27-year-old with low velocity readings and no prospect pedigree, the Athletics may decide to throw caution to the wind with him, but if they determine he's the real deal, his many years of remaining control will instead drive their thinking.
PHI Philadelphia • #44 • Age: 27
Risk level
Low
This year
133
Last year
72.1
Previous high
182.2
Jesus Luzardo showed he could handle a big workload two years ago, which may be enough to convince the Phillies to go full bore, but given the amount of time he lost to injury last year, he's looking at a big innings increase if they decide to do that. Once Aaron Nola is back from the IL, they could take the opportunity to ease up on Luzardo, who may or may not be a part of their postseason rotation.
MIL Milwaukee • #32 • Age: 23
Risk level
High
This year
96.2
Last year
97.1
Previous high
97.1
Some have speculated that Jacob Misiorowski's IL stint for a bruised tibia was just a convenient excuse for the Brewers to build in some extra rest, and you can understand why. Rookies who throw as hard as him (and few have thrown harder) are prime candidates for injury, so we may not see many five-inning starts for him moving forward, particularly if he's a big part of the Brewers' playoff plans.
TB Tampa Bay • #44 • Age: 28
Risk level
High
This year
142.1
Last year
130
Previous high
130
Ryan Pepiot actually leads the Rays in innings so far, but seeing as he's under their control for the next three years, they're not going to do anything reckless with him. He's already a couple starts beyond his previous high in innings, so a September slowdown seems all but certain.
TB Tampa Bay • #57 • Age: 30
Risk level
High
This year
111.2
Last year
36
Previous high
146
It's kind of a no-brainer to put Drew Rasmussen here given that the Rays have been carefully managing his innings all season long. They made sure his final three starts before the All-Star break were three innings or fewer, and while they've let him stretch out again since then, they're likely to implement similar guardrails to close out the season.
SF San Francisco • #38 • Age: 33
Risk level
Low
This year
142
Last year
60
Previous high
193.1
Maybe a 33-year-old with Cy Young credentials doesn't need (or won't accept) any workload restrictions, but the Giants only get one more year with Robbie Ray. He's not leading them to the playoffs in this one, in all likelihood, and has already taken on a big workload to reestablish himself as an ace after a couple of injury-plagued seasons. Why push it?
PIT Pittsburgh • #30 • Age: 23
Risk level
Medium
This year
144
Last year
133
Previous high
133
Here we go again with Paul Skenes, who the Pirates more or less turned loose at the end of his rookie season, but that was only possible because they held him back at the start of the year. They've had to go about it differently this year, cutting him off at five innings with frustrating regularity, but even so, the pace he's on is difficult to justify for a last-place team whose entire future rests on his shoulders.
LAA L.A. Angels • #59 • Age: 26
Risk level
High
This year
143
Last year
113
Previous high
113
The league's best ground ball pitcher is also one of its hardest throwing, at least among starters, which makes the injury risk even more acute. Seeing as Jose Soriano has already eclipsed his previous high by 30 innings, he may have only another 20 or so to go.
ATH Athletics • #59 • Age: 32
Risk level
Medium
This year
135.1
Last year
65
Previous high
135.1
Jeffrey Springs only transitioned to starting in 2022, when he set his career high of 135 1/3 innings, and given that he lost most of the next two years to Tommy John surgery, it wasn't clear coming into this year that he was best suited for the role. The Athletics have nursed him back to that previous high and probably shouldn't push him much further, seeing as he's a part of their plans for next year as well.
CLE Cleveland • #32 • Age: 26
Risk level
High
This year
125
Last year
95.1
Previous high
115
The Guardians are still fighting for a playoff spot and, thus, haven't been in a position to manage their de facto ace's workload too much. But Gavin Williams has already breezed past his previous high in innings while showing the sort of progress that makes him an integral part of the team's future. By the time the Guardians learn they aren't one of the AL's six best teams, his innings will likely have escalated to the point that they should probably just shut him down.
SEA Seattle • #22 • Age: 25
Risk level
Low
This year
146
Last year
135.1
Previous high
135.1
Durability was the biggest question for Bryan Woo coming into the season, so while it's been heartening to see him emerge as the ace of a star-studded staff, the innings increase might make you wince a little. The Mariners are fighting just to get into the playoffs, but since Woo will need to be a central part of things if they succeed, they may choose to get creative with him down the stretch.