NFL Week 7 betting guide, odds, picks: Colts vs. Chargers plus best bets, underdogs to back and player props

What did we tell you about Thursday nights? Shoutout to last night's betting guide, which was a D.K. Metcalf touchdown away from a full-blown sweep and strongly hinted at the possibility of the Bengals winning outright. The AFC North, like the NFC East the week before, just plunged into chaos. The Ravens are on bye and the Browns are favored this week, so things could get even kookier. 

Beware, to a degree, certain obvious angles out there, because there are several this week. Unfortunately for me, a lot of them have to do with revenge. So instead of attacking them as usual, we're going to approach them in a unique way below. 

We're nearing the halfway point of the NFL season and we're not sure there are any genuinely good teams in the NFL. Remember that before you lay some massive spread with a huge favorite. Just saying. 

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Last week was strong for the column. Although we didn't get any touchdown scorers, we went 2-1 on props (with no sweat whatsoever on our wins) and 3-2 ATS, which easily could have been 4-1 if the Cardinals didn't get a late field goal in the first half. For all of my picks -- plus a slew of great insight from other experts -- make sure to join SportsLine and turn on alerts. 

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Below, we've got my five favorite bets of the week, a couple player props I love for this weekend and my best bets for anytime touchdown scorers. Let's get into some NFL betting.

Best bets

Lions -5.5 vs. Buccaneers

This line is suspiciously large! The Buccaneers are the darling of the NFL right now, having jumped out to a 5-1 record. Baker Mayfield is rightfully in the middle of the MVP mix and would probably win the award if the vote was held today. The Bucs may even get Mike Evans back for this game, but it looks like all of Bucky Irving, Chris Godwin and Emeka Ebuka are going to be missing in Detroit.

I totally understand it if you think this is too many points to give Mayfield, who's been electric late in games, especially when the Lions secondary is banged up and/or suspended (Brian Branch lost his appeal to Jordy Nelson, which makes me feel old). 

But the Lions at home are a different beast, and this team playing at home after a national embarrassment should be a very scary thought indeed. The Bucs defense has played really well this season and they're tough to run on, but you can pass on them and as such this sets up really nicely for a big game from Jared Goff and Co. 

The last time the Lions offense was snuffed out like they were at Kansas City was Week 1 at Green Bay, and the Lions responded by averaging 40+ points over their next four games. 

My crystal ball is foreshadowing an explosion spot for the Lions offense in a game where they won't want to take their foot off the gas. They know how dangerous Mayfield is late in the game, as well as how much this game could mean for NFC seeding in a few short months. 

Patriots team total Over 24.5 at Titans

Speaking of lines that are too good to be true, how about the Patriots not moving at all off the initial bump up to 7 points? It's a little nerve-racking, because I thought the Pats would get a little more steam, but it's also very possible the market is expecting massive buy back if the Titans catch the hook here. 

After all, they might be terrible, but the Titans are still a group of professionals and they just saw their coach get fired. There's generally a big bounceback for teams after a midseason firing. Although they don't have an interim coach who will be a gung-ho energy guy, Mike McCoy has been a head coach before, so there should be an uptick in game management. 

So instead of flirting with the possibility of Tennessee looking much sharper on offense and keeping this close, I'm backing the Patriots to light up the scoreboard and taking their team total Over. 

New England is rolling and has a stoic coach in Mike Vrabel who is hellbent on flexing against the team that fired him less than two years ago. The Titans was his first job and he probably thought he'd be there for a while. Football office politics happened and now he's on the sideline for the Patriots with a great quarterback in Drake Maye who is really finding his groove. 

He won't let his foot off the gas in this one. 

Saints team total Under 21.5 at Bears

Speaking of revenge -- Dennis Allen was fired by the Saints less than a year ago. Now, fresh off his defense's best performance of the year against Jayden Daniels and the Commanders on the road, he gets to welcome Spencer Rattler and the Saints into town.

New Orleans has been much less effective on offense away from the Superdome and Allen will want to show them why they made a mistake when they canned him at midseason and replaced him with Kellen Moore. 

Chris Olave's been rumored to be on the trade block and is questionable for this game (probably a longshot, but it's not impossible the Saints hold him out for health/trade reasons). Chicago is getting healthier on defense and although D'Andre Swift showed up on the injury report as well, they Bears are very capable of running the football if the offensive line plays the way it did out of the bye. 

I tend to think Ben Johnson made some adjustments with this team over the break and they might be look a little sharper in the second quarter of the season. 

We're fading the Saints' offensive production here. 

Browns -2.5 vs. Dolphins

It's kind of wild to think a mid-round rookie quarterback like Dillon Gabriel could be laying points against anyone, but here we are, in Week 7 with the Browns as a 2.5-point favorite over the Dolphins. 

A couple things to like here though: the Dolphins are downright horrendous against the run and Quinshon Judkins (more on him later) is getting bellcow work for the Browns. He should easily see 20+ carries in this game and his over/under for rushing yards is up to 95.5, which is absurd. That's like something you'd see from the best running back in football on an elite offense against a college team. 

The weather is likely to be a factor here. There's talks of wind gusts up past 40 mph and rainy cold weather, just kind of your standard nasty Cleveland Sunday in October. That's bad weather for Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins offense if the Browns can slow down De'Von Achane. 

It's great weather for a Cleveland team that wants to keep the ball out of Gabriel's hands and stay on the ground while letting the defense step up and try to keep them in the very ugly race for the AFC North. 

One more thing on Gabriel: this is his first home start. He began his career as the Browns' starting quarterback in London, then got the Steelers on the road. It's the first time he's had a decent spot in three weeks.  

Chargers -130 vs. Colts

Betting against the Colts has been bad business this year but here we are, getting right back in front of them! Daniel Jones has shown some cracks the last couple of weeks. Last week, in particular, he really tried to keep the Cardinals in the game despite Arizona missing its starting quarterback and several key players.

The Chargers might be getting Joe Alt back this week, which would be a massive boost to the run game and the protection of Justin Herbert. Los Angeles sees what's happening in the division and knows the Chiefs are coming on like gangbusters and are likely to beat the Raiders and keep climbing up the standings.

The Bolts need to hold serve not just for the division but for playoff seeding against a Colts team they may be battling for the wild card. Indianapolis' run game is a concern here, but I believe the Chargers can attack through the air, force Jones into being a little more one dimensional and find a way to win against Indy.  

Week 7 NFL player props

Jayden Daniels Over 227.5 passing yards

Daniels is the stone cold chalk in DFS this week, so it's a little surprising to see him with such a low passing yardage total. That's likely because we still don't know if he's going to have either Deebo Samuel or Terry McLaurin. That's a problem! But the Cowboys defense is willing to give up yardage to anyone, anytime, anywhere. 

Having to use Luke McCaffrey, Zach Ertz and Chris Moore as your top available weapons isn't ideal, but in a game where the total is 54.5 -- even juiced to the Over -- it's hard not to back this low a passing yardage total from Daniels. 

Dallas has held opposing offenses to this number just twice this season and "held" is doing a lot of work there: the Panthers ran for more than 200 yards last week and the Eagles weren't interested in passing in Week 1. 

If Daniels is dropping back at all in this game (a.k.a. if Dallas pushes the pace and the Commanders can't just pound the ball all day) he should clear this number. If McLaurin or Deebo are active it should move up quickly. 

Wan'Dale Robinson Under 45.5 receiving yards

We're going for the Patrick Surtain three-peat! Now, we're doing so understanding that Robinson isn't quite the same player that A.J. Brown or Garrett Wilson is, in terms of not just being an alpha for his team but how he operates. The Broncos are going to put Surtain on someone though, and with Darius Slayton missing practice on Thursday, it's trending towards Robinson being the Giants No. 1 receiver again.

Robinson can eat underneath, but we don't care how many five-yard receptions he hauls in, as long as it's fewer than 10. 

Kareem Hunt Over 28.5 rushing yards

This feels like a game where the Chiefs are going to showcase Rashee Rice early, get him back into the rhythm of the offense with Patrick Mahomes and remind people what they can do offensively. Andy Reid should then park the bus in the second half with a sizable lead and just pound the running backs.

Considering the spread and considering the low numbers, I'd be fine taking either Pachecho or Hunt here, but I'm going to bank on the yeoman's work going to Hunt in the second half as the Chiefs look to close this thing out. 

We're not asking for a ton here either: 30 yards and we cash! 

Anytime touchdown scorer props

Davante Adams anytime TD 

In my "Bet It Now" column on Tuesday, I advised jumping on Davante Adams anytime touchdown at +105. Hope you did! It's now basically -120 across the board. 

But we're going back to Adams anyway. He leads the NFL in red-zone targets (12) heading into Week 7 and has only converted two of those targets into catches, both of which ended up being touchdowns. With Puka Nakua likely out, Adams is going to be the alpha in the passing game for Matthew Stafford and -- no brainer here -- he's up to it. 

I'd expect the Jags to stack the line against anything in the red zone and Stafford to pepper Adams. I wouldn't take this past -125 unless you were running some kind of TD parlay but it's still good where it is. 

Stefon Diggs anytime TD

When Diggs squared off against his old team, the Buffalo Bills, Mike Vrabel made sure to feed the veangeance-minded wide receiver and help him have his best game as a Patriot in a spite store situation.

Now it's Diggs' turn to return the favor with Vrabel squaring off against the franchise that fired him less than two years ago. The Revenge Game angle has been played up a ton, to the point it's maybe a bit overplayed. Just kidding. There's no such thing as too much revenge.

Diggs loves it, Vrabel loves it and I think Diggs will elevate his game against the Titans on Sunday and find the end zone. 

Quinshon Judkins anytime TD

I really like the Browns in this spot. Judkins to score a rushing or receiving touchdown is "just" -127 -- usually when someone has an over/under of close to 100 yards for a game, their anytime touchdown prop is going to be in the neighborhood -200. That makes this exceptional value against the worst rush defense in football on a yards per carry basis.