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What kind of wrench did the Giants just throw into the 2025 NFL season on Thursday night? Their win over the Eagles in primetime just made the NFC East very interesting. If not for a bunch of fumbles against the Saints, New York could be in the mix.

It's a great reminder how quickly everything we think we know can change in the NFL. The Giants were 7.5-point home underdogs with a rookie quarterback and just hoping for everyone to not get fired. Now they've got a real shot at being competitive in the division if Jaxson Dart can keep them in games in a way that Russell Wilson just simply couldn't, the outburst against the Cowboys aside. 

May this also serve as a good reminder to NFL coaches: play the talented youngsters. Dart should have been under center from jump street. Perhaps the Giants wouldn't be in this little hole they find themselves if he'd been out there from the first snap.

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For the Eagles, well, we can probably toss out the narrative that they're the "2025 version of last year's Chiefs." That was fun while they were winning, but this team has serious flaws, which are exacerbated when they're missing key players. Jalen Carter matters for that team. 

Last week was a little slow in this column but it feels like a bounceback week, especially for some underdogs and good looks at touchdown scorers. For all of my picks -- plus a slew of great insight from other experts -- make sure to join SportsLine and turn on alerts. 

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Below, we've got my five favorite bets of the week, a couple player props I love for this weekend and my best bets for anytime touchdown scorers. Let's get into some NFL betting.

Best bets

Patriots -3.5 vs. Saints

The Saints are coming off a massive first win of the season against the Giants and get their fourth home game through six weeks. They've been much better at home than on the road, but New Orleans was also incredibly lucky in Week 5. 

Kellen Moore's team hit on a rare explosive play with an 87-yard bomb from Spencer Rattler to Rasheed Shaheed -- take that long score out and New Orleans averaged just 4.0 yards per play against a questionable Giants defense. New York handed the Saints three pretty unacceptable fumbles as well. 

There's definitely some concern about the Pats being at the peak of their value and coming off an emotional win in Buffalo on Sunday night, but I'd argue New England should really be 4-1 at worst, given they handed the Steelers a game in Week 3 with a handful of boneheaded turnovers on the goal line. Protect the football, don't give up deep shots, keep Stefon Diggs engaged off his best game this year and the Patriots should roll here pretty easily.

Lions +2.5 at Chiefs

The Lions might very well be the best team in football right now. Week 1's loss to the Packers looks like a bit of an anomaly at this stage of things, with the Lions offense operating at full strength ever since and Jared Goff and Co. averaging north of 40 (!) points per game since Week 1's stumble out of the gate.

Amon-Ra St. Brown being dinged up is a concern, certainly, but the Lions essentially have an extra day to get him ready with SNF and he was back at practice on Thursday anyway. The Chiefs have looked better in recent weeks and are just one week out from getting Rashee Rice back, so there certainly should be optimism for their season-long goals and standing in the weakened AFC.

Losing to Jacksonville and coming home for a primetime game is a possible danger spot if we're looking to fade Patrick Mahomes and obviously it wouldn't be a shock to see the Chiefs come out on top, but I think the Lions are just playing too well right now to be catching any points, no matter the situation. 

Panthers +3 vs. Cowboys

The Panthers have been home underdogs twice this season and have come away with each of their wins in those games. While that's not necessarily predictive by any means, there's decent reason to go back to them in this spot. And not just because this is a Rico Dowdle revenge game. 

Lest you laugh, he's not even the one who brought it up: Stephen Jones mentioned it, as did Brian Schottenheimer. Everyone on the Cowboys saw Rico rumble for a ridiculous 200 yards against the Dolphins last week and they're fully aware he wants to have back-to-back monster games, with the second coming against his old team.

I'm not sure the tough part is scoring for Carolina. Dallas defense looked "good" against the Jets, but New York still managed to pile up points in garbage time once they started acting in a semi-competent manner. And I tend to think the Panthers offense is a little more competent, at least when it's playing at home, than the Jets offense. 

The Panthers defense at home is certainly better! The Cowboys offense is a different beast than Atlanta or Miami, but they're still without CeeDee Lamb. If Carolina can get any pressure on Dak Prescott, I expect them to keep this as a field goal game at worst, with a chance to win late. 

I'd be remiss if I didn't note this is also a homecoming for Javonte Williams, who played at UNC and is from Wallace, North Carolina. Shoutout Duplin County! Both running backs could have strong games here, but we're ok with the Cowboys keeping it on the ground as long as the Panthers can hold serve on their end offensively. 

Jaguars -111 vs. Seahawks

This line's been bouncing back and forth as to who's favored between Seattle and Jacksonville, and I get the argument for both. Seattle has a slight rest advantage, with the Seahawks playing Sunday and Jags playing Monday night, but the Seahawks did have to travel about as far as one can in the NFL and that basically nullifies the extra day for them. The Jaguars could be "hung over" from a huge win, theoretically, but I would almost argue the momentum of that last-second win against Kansas City in primetime at home and sitting at 4-1 could help propel the Jags to keep it up on the offensive end. 

No doubt Seattle is a tough defense, but this is also a Seahawks team that has played almost exclusively close games so far this season when presented with a decent opponent. They blew out the Saints and beat Pittsburgh by two scores, but the latter was a much closer game than the final number suggested. They're willing to let teams with decent offenses back into games, as shown by that Thursday night narrow victory over Arizona and then last week's tough loss to Tampa Bay. 

The Jags are starting to find their rhythm on offense. And defensively, they're much better than people think. I'll take Jacksonville to hold serve here in an early start time for Seattle. 

Colts first half -5.5 vs. Cardinals

After weeks of not being early on the Colts, it's time to be a little late! Indy's been playing incredible ball this season and now gets a home matchup against a questionable Cardinals team that is just "fine" on both sides of the ball. More importantly, they're likely going to be without Kyler Murray, who has yet to practice this week. 

Jacoby Brissett is a capable backup, certainly, but the Colts are the type of team that just wears on you early and often with the run game and then makes you one-dimensional on offense when they get a big lead. 

Yeah it's a big number, but we saw last week Indy isn't scared to pile it on when they can bully a lesser team around. With Murray sidelined, the Cards are certainly that and if the Colts jump out to a lead, I don't necessarily see Brissett storming through the back door in this spot. 

It's very possible we see this number run out a little further over the course of the weekend once Murray is officially ruled out, which I think could happen as early as Friday afternoon. 

NFL player props

Tyjae Spears Over 6.5 receiving yards

The Raiders are, rather inexplicably, a 4.5-point favorite over *anyone* this week. That anyone happens to be the Titans, who are coming off their first win, a shocking comeback against the Cardinals in which Arizona was very friendly in their assistance of letting Tennessee back into the game. It's a spread that terrifies me, because it screams to take the Titans in an obvious fashion and sometimes the obvious line in the NFL is a complete disaster. 

Instead let's attack a very low number on the Titans No. 2 running back, Tyjae Spears, who is likely to be active for the second time this season after logging two limited practices this week. Spears got four carries and played 25% of the snaps against the Cardinals behind Tony Pollard in Week 5, and if he can practice in full on Friday, should go into the game against the Raiders without an injury designation. 

I think that means we see a ramp up in his snaps for this game, which should mean an increase in third-down situations, which should set him up for some receiving work out of the backfield. We're looking for, frankly, one catch here, a quick screen or swing pass from Cam Ward that picks up a first down on third and long-ish. If we can get two early, great, but there's also the chance Vegas is correct and the Titans are playing from behind, leaving the back door wide open for this. 

Spears caught two passes in nine of 12 games he played last season. You can also attack the receptions number, which sits at 1.5 and is juiced nicely to the Over, if you feel so inclined. 

Garrett Wilson Under 55.5 receiving yards

After hitting on the A.J. Brown receiving yards Under last week, let's go right back to the Patrick Surtain well here. Surtain almost always shadows the best receiver on the opposing team and has been lights-out this season while covering No. 1 options. The Broncos haven't allowed 100 yards to a receiver yet this season and in games where their opponent has a true alpha receiver, those players have been completely shut down. Brown had less than 50 yards, Ja'Marr Chase had less than 25 yards and Calvin Ridley was held to just 27 yards. 

Wilson's a fantastic player, but shadow coverage from Surtain is likely going to force the Jets to look elsewhere.

Jake Ferguson Over 6.5 receptions

Ever since CeeDee Lamb went down with an injury, Ferguson has been a go-to target for Dak Prescott, recording 27 total catches in those nearly three full games, including a trio of touchdowns over the last two outings when Lamb wasn't a starter. The Panthers haven't been hit with an explosion game from a tight end every week, but they have been pretty vulnerable to the position.

Brenton Strange was piling up catches early against them before the game got out of hand, Trey McBride (6 and 78) got them good, Hunter Henry found pay dirt in a blowout where the Pats weren't throwing much and Darren Waller just went for 5-78-1. 

I fully expect the Cowboys to target Ferguson early and often in the passing game and in what should be a back-and-forth affair with a high total, I love this plus money number.

Anytime touchdown scorer props

Courtland Sutton anytime TD

Did you see that Jets defense against the Cowboys last week? Or against anyone at any time this season? The Jets have been horrendous and I wouldn't expect them to magically get better just because they hopped on an international flight. The Broncos are starting to really trend positively from an offensive perspective after a throttling of the Bengals and an impressive comeback against the Eagles. 

Sean Payton loves to beat up on bad teams, especially when his team is playing on a big stage, and I'd expect him to use this opportunity against a weak defense to keep building Bo Nix's confidence. That means plenty of targets for Sutton, who has seen Nix look his way six or more times in all but one game this season and who has three touchdowns scored in five games so far. 

Matthew Golden anytime TD

Expectations for the first-round rookie out of Texas were sky high after a marvelous offseason and training camp and Golden, largely out of bad luck and/or because of game scripts, hasn't quite delivered. The Packers didn't pass much against the Lions, played an elite defense against the Browns and he frankly should have had an easy touchdown against the Commanders. Not scoring in a game with 80 points has thrown everyone off his scent, but the rookie bump is real and it's spectacular. 

Golden gets a defense that's been carved up by everyone its seen, at home, fresh off the bye and should see some downfield looks as the Packers attempt to get off a 0-1-1 schnide. This is a pretty big "flex your muscles" spot for a Green Bay offense that has been largely hit-or-miss this year and I fully expect them to involve their rookie to kickstart his season.

Emeka Egbuka anytime TD

We've got a nice, high total (47.5) here, with two teams that can be thrown on. We've got the other two primary wide receiver options for Baker Mayfield (Mike Evans, Chris Godwin) showing up on the injury report all week long. And we've got a rookie with a real nose for the end zone, with Egbuka scoring in four of five games to start the season. 

He's fresh off the best game of his career, catching all seven of his targets for 163 yards in the comeback win against Seattle and it's very clear Mayfield isn't afraid to go to him. In a game with a small spread, I'd expect plenty of back and forth here and Egbuka to find pay dirt at some point.