Hello football friends, and welcome to the Labor Day edition of the Pick Six newsletter!
We officially have a new Labor Day tradition here at CBS Sports and that tradition is me releasing my full predictions for the NFL season. As a salute to Labor Day, I spent my entire weekend laboring over my predictions for the upcoming season. I haven't slept in three days, my blood smells like coffee and I've eaten nothing but Funyons for the past 72 hours, but I have to say, it was all worth it because my predictions are now done.
Who's going to make the playoffs? Who's going to win the Super Bowl? Who's going to finish with the worst record in the NFL? We're going to answer all of that today.
As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. Let's get to the rundown.
1. Full AFC predictions for 2026: Broncos earn the top seed in the conference
As I just mentioned at the top, I spent my entire Labor Day weekend going through all 272 regular-season games on the NFL schedule, and after 71.5 straight hours of contemplating the 2026 season, my picks are finally in.
Here's my final record prediction for each team in the AFC:
*make playoffs
AFC East
1. *Bills: 11-6
2. Patriots: 9-8
3. Jets: 6-11
4. Dolphins: 2-15
AFC North
1. *Ravens: 12-5
2. *Bengals: 11-6
3. *Steelers: 9-8
4. Browns: 5-12
AFC South
1. *Texans: 11-6
2. Jaguars: 8-9
3. Colts: 7-10
4. Titans: 3-14
AFC West
1. *Broncos: 12-5
2. *Chiefs: 10-7
3. Chargers: 9-8
4. Raiders: 5-12
AFC playoffs: 1. Broncos 2. Ravens 3. Texans 4. Bills 5. Bengals 6. Chiefs 7. Steelers
If you want to know who my AFC Super Bowl team is, you'll have to read my full predictions here. If you want to tell at me on social media about my picks, you can do that here.
2. Full NFC predictions for 2026: Cowboys end Eagles' reign at top of NFC East
In the NFC, I have the Cowboys winning the NFC East. The Cowboys are always overhyped and they almost always seem to underdeliver, but I don't care, I'm rolling with them anyway.
Here's my final record prediction for each team in the NFC:
*make playoffs
NFC East
1. *Cowboys: 10-7
2. Eagles: 9-8
3. Giants: 8-9
4. Commanders: 7-10
NFC North
1. *Lions: 12-5
2. *Packers: 11-6
3. *Bears: 10-7
4. Vikings: 10-7
NFC South
1. *Saints: 8-9
2. Buccaneers: 7-10
3. Falcons: 6-11
4. Panthers: 6-11
NFC West
1. *Rams: 14-3
2. *Seahawks: 12-5
3. 49ers: 10-7
4. Cardinals: 3-14
NFC playoffs: 1. Rams 2. Lions 3. Cowboys 4. Saints 5. Seahawks 6. Packers 7. Bears
I would like everyone to know that I absolutely love the Rams, but I DON'T have them winning the Super Bowl. I actually don't even have them making the Super Bowl. If you want to know who I do have getting to the Super Bowl out of the NFC, you'll have to read my full story here.
If you do read my full story, not only will you get my Super Bowl prediction, but you'll also get to see the nine bold predictions I made about the 2026 NFL season, including a dark horse MVP winner.
3. Falcons finally name a starter for Week 1: Tua Tagovailoa gets job to start the season
The QB battle in Atlanta is finally over. The Falcons announced Monday that Tua Tagovailoa will be the starter for the team's opener in Pittsburgh against the Steelers. This might have been the first QB battle in NFL history where someone really only had to battle himself, and even then, Tua still almost lost.
Here's what you need to know about the Falcons' QB situation:
- Why Tua might not be on the job for long. Tua didn't have a great training camp, but the Falcons almost had no choice but to go with him for Week 1. His main competition for the QB job was Michael Penix Jr., who tore his ACL back in November. Penix wasn't even cleared to participate in 11-on-11 drills until Aug. 22, so this felt like a situation where he never really had a realistic chance of starting in Week 1 (The Falcons have already announced that Penix won't even be active for the game). At this point, I'm assuming Tua will keep the job as long as he plays well, but he if struggles, Penix could end up replacing him sooner rather than later.
- Why Tua COULD succeed in Atlanta. Tua definitely struggled in Miami last year, but he has proven throughout his career that he can put up big numbers if he has some weapons around him and the Falcons definitely have some weapons. In 2023, Tua led the NFL in passing yards while playing in a Dolphins offense that included Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. This year, he'll have Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts. Robinson is arguably the most electrifying player in the NFL and opposing defenses always have to account for him when he's on the field. With Robinson in the backfield, that should take a lot or pressure off Tua, who could potentially thrive in the Falcons' loaded offense.
- Falcons QB carousel continues. Tua will be the SIXTH different Week 1 starting QB that the Falcons have had over the past six years. Here's a look a the full list: Matt Ryan (2021), Marcus Mariota (2022), Desmond Ridder (2023), Kirk Cousins (2024), Michael Penix Jr. (2025) and Tua Tagovailoa (2026). If Tua and Penix both struggle this year, there's a very real chance that the Falcons could be starting their seventh new QB by the time we get to Week 1 in 2027. The Falcons have been in QB purgatory ever since March 2022 when they tried to acquire Deshaun Watson from the Texans, so Watson has now taken down two franchises.
If you want the full details on Tua being named the Week 1 starter, we have those here.
If Tua is going to have one advantage going into Week 1, it's that new Falcons coach Kevin Stefanski is very familiar with Atlanta's opponent. Stefanski, who was fired by the Browns after the 2025 season, went 3-2 against the Steelers in his past five meetings against them. As a matter of fact, one of Stefanski's final games as the head coach in Cleveland was a shocking win over the Steelers last December. In Week 17, the Steelers desperately needed a win against the 3-12 Browns, but Cleveland ended up stunning Pittsburgh, 13-6.
4. NFL best bets: Looking at our top Over/Under picks for the 2026 season
The NFL season is kicking off on Wednesday and since this is our final newsletter before that happens, we're going to cram as many predictions as possible in here. Not only do we have my season predictions, but we also have some best bets coming from our NFL staff.
Tyler Sullivan rounded up nine of our NFL writers here at CBS Sports, and we all offered our two best Over/Under bets for the 2026 season. My two Over/Under bets last season and went 2-0, and I also went 2-0 in 2024, so I'm basically printing out free money with my picks. Let's check out a few of the bets that our NFL experts like:
- John Breech: Seahawks OVER 10.5 (-115). I have never seen a situation where everyone seems to be sleeping on the defending champs, but that feels like what we're seeing with the Seahawks. Everyone is all in on the Rams, and although I do think they'll be good, I also think the Seahawks will go toe to toe with them for the NFC West title.
- Emory Hunt: Bears OVER 9.5 (+105). Offensively, the Bears have what travels well late in the season: a strong running game. Defensively, being opportunistic is a mentality, not luck. They're still the most complete team in the division.
- Tyler Sullivan: Falcons UNDER 7.5 (-140). It's hard to have much optimism after the summer that Atlanta just had. At the time I'm writing this, Kevin Stefanski had STILL not named a starting quarterback, but on Monday he finally named Tua Tagovailoa. Tagovailoa didn't do much to endear himself to lock up the job, while Michael Penix Jr. is just starting to take competitive reps. This team feels destined to play multiple quarterbacks throughout the year, which is the last place you want to be.
- Jared Dubin: Bills OVER 10.5 (-120). The Bills have won at least 11 games every season since 2020. This feels like stealing.
- Jordan Dajani: Texans OVER 9.5 (-146). The Texans have the best defense in the NFL, a good wide receiving corps and an upgrade at running back with David Montgomery. Imagine if the quarterback starts playing well again. The Texans could win the Super Bowl! Houston has won double-digit games in each season where C.J. Stroud has been the QB. I have him bouncing back and winning the division.
You can check out all 18 of our best bets here.
5. Hall of Fame changes voting process after Bill Belichick snub
The Pro Football Hall of Fame decided to turn its selection process upside down over the weekend by making some massive changes that aren't necessarily for the better.
After Bill Belichick was snubbed from the Pro Football Hall of Fame during his first year as an eligible candidate last February, there were questions about whether the Hall needed to start thinking about changing its selection process, and that's exactly what has happened.
The most notable change is probably the elimination of the seniors category. Another big change is that the selection committee will be trimmed from 50 members to just 28.
Here are some of the notable bylaw changes that will be implemented starting with the Class of 2027:
- Committee size and structure will change: The selection committee will be reduced from 50 members to 28. Their voting status (25 voting, three nonvoting participants) will be determined annually. Under the old structure, there was one voter representing each NFL team (32 total), 17 at-large selectors and one Pro Football Writers of America representative. Under the new structure, there will be 27 at-large selectors and one PFWA representative.
- No more seniors category: The seniors category will essentially be eliminated, with everyone now going into a single pool of all eligible candidates following the mandatory five-year retirement period.
- No more Carryover candidates: Under the old rule, if a player was a finalist for the Hall of Fame, he would automatically return as a finalist the following year, but that will no longer be the case.
On the surface, these changes seem catastrophic for senior candidates, who are going to have a tough time getting in with the elimination of the seniors category.
The Hall of Fame made a total of seven changes to the selection by-laws and you can see the full list here.
6. Extra points: NFL gives Roger Goodell a contract extension
It's been a busy few days around the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything, I put together a quick roundup for you.
- NFL gives Roger Goodell a four-year extension. Roger Goodell has been the NFL commissioner since 2006 and he's now going to be on the job through at least March 2031 after agreeing to a four-year deal on Sunday. Goodell's contract was set to expire in March 2027, so he only had six months left on it before agreeing to the new deal. Goodell's salary is no longer public information, but it's believed that he made $63.9 million as recently as the 2021 season.
- Harrison Smith returns to the Vikings. The 37-year-old, who spent the past few months contemplating retirement, is officially returning for a 15th season. Smith has spent his entire career in Minnesota, and now, he'll be spending at least one more season for the Vikings. Getting the six-time Pro Bowler back in the secondary is a huge boost for Vikings defensive coordiantor Brian Flores.
- Jameis Winston gets two-year extension with the Giants. Apparently, Jameis Winston is completely content being the backup QB in New York. The former No. 1 overall pick has agreed to a two-year, $13 million extension, according to ESPN. Giants guard Jon Runyan also inked a two-year extension, and both players are now signed through the 2028 season.
- 49ers players gets cut after making 16-hour flight to Australia. Brayden Willis is going to have a wild story to tell after this week's game in Australia. The 49ers tight end got CUT over the weekend, and after that happened, he immediately hit the waiver wire. If Willis had been claimed on waivers, he would have had to leave Australia after just two days to join his new team, but in the end, he didn't get claimed. At that point, he was eligible to re-sign with the 49ers and the team ended up adding him to the practice squad, so he got to stay in Australia, but not before sweating it out for 24 hours wondering if he would have to leave. If you want the full details on this crazy situation, we've got those here.
