Every team wants to think it can win the Super Bowl. Dare to dream, right? The reality is that only a fraction of the NFL is capable of competing at the highest level each year, and in 2026, there are a couple of squads in particular that set the bar ridiculously high. The Los Angeles Rams constructed a superteam this offseason, and do not forget about the reigning Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks, who steamrolled their way to a title about six months ago.
In order to visualize which franchises have the best chances of winning the Super Bowl this year, let us place all 32 teams in an S-to-F tier list. Here are the criteria for each category:
- S: Super Bowl or bust
- A: Got close in '25, could break through in '26
- B: Legitimate championship aspirations
- C: Make the playoffs, then we'll talk
- D: Probably finishing below .500
- F: No. 1 pick contenders
Below are the six tiers of Super Bowl contenders.
S Tier
Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks
The top of the NFC West is stacked with heavyweights. That the Rams and Seahawks will square off twice in the regular season is a treat, and it would be no surprise if, like last year, they met for a third time in the playoffs.
No team had itself a better offseason than the Rams. Trading for Myles Garrett was the biggest move of the summer in the NFL, and they followed up that blockbuster by pulling Aaron Donald out of retirement. With those two up front and fellow offseason acquisitions of Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson in the secondary, this could be the league's best defense. Plus, the other side of the ball should remain as difficult to stop as any offense in football. Los Angeles has the shortest odds to win the Super Bowl, and it is not close. This team is practically in a tier of its own.
There is one more squad at the front of the pack, though. While the Seahawks have widely been cast aside as the No. 2 team in their division, they are the reigning champions and won two out of three against L.A. last season. The running back group is a question mark, but everything else remains intact on a roster that dominated its way to the Lombardi in February. Mike Macdonald's defense can stop anyone. Do not be so quick to forget that this was clearly the best team in the league in 2025.
A Tier
Buffalo Bills, New England Patriots, Houston Texans, Denver Broncos
Each of these four teams played in at least the divisional round of the 2025 postseason. The Patriots reached the Super Bowl after defeating the Broncos in the AFC Championship. Every team here could taste the trophy but fell just short. A small step forward this year is all it will take to break through, and each of them made at least one key change that could deliver the necessary improvement.
The Bills shook up their coaching staff by firing Sean McDermott and elevating Joe Brady to head coach. While that will not inherently fix their occasional defensive lapses, it should keep Josh Allen and the offense firing on all cylinders and potentially deliver better game planning and execution.
The Patriots traded for A.J. Brown in a summer blockbuster and signed Romeo Doubs to give Drake Maye the best receiving corps of his young career. Any improvement on the defensive line should pair incredibly well with that upgrade in wideout talent and help this offense overcome the increased schedule difficulty.
The Texans shook up an offensive line that struggled immensely at protecting C.J. Stroud, particularly in the playoffs. They also brought in David Montgomery to ease some pressure on Stroud in the running game. If those two moves help Stroud perform even as a mid-tier quarterback, Houston can win it all. The defense is elite enough to carry them.
The Broncos have a healthy Bo Nix at quarterback. If not for the broken ankle that cut his postseason short, he would have almost certainly led Denver past the Patriots in the AFC title game. His receiving unit got better this offseason, too, with Jaylen Waddle arriving via trade. The defensive front should remain among the NFL's best.
B Tier
Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, Philadelphia Eagles, Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, San Francisco 49ers
This is the tier wherein any team could reasonably level up from where they stood in 2025. They should all expect to make the playoffs, and if they are better than they were a year ago, deep postseason runs are possible.
The AFC North battle between the Ravens and Bengals is especially compelling. First-year coach Jesse Minter fielded an absolutely monstrous defense in the preseason, so if that unit follows suit in the regular season, it will be more than good enough to capitalize on everything Lamar Jackson brings on the other side of the ball. Cincinnati is also better defensively, at least on paper. Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase already proved they can guide a team to the Super Bowl if their defense holds up its end of the deal.
A step forward for Chicago would come in the form of Caleb Williams emerging as a superstar. With the way he performed in Year 1 under coach Ben Johnson's tutelage, it is no stretch to imagine him climbing into the All-Pro category. At the same time, though, the Bears might be the most volatile team in this tier, considering they caught a healthy dose of close-game luck in 2025.
For a couple of others, a lot comes down to health. The Chargers should be better now that their offensive line is not entirely decimated, the 49ers will be in the thick of the NFC West race so long as they avoid their seemingly inevitable rash of injuries and the Chiefs must rely on Patrick Mahomes recovering fully from his torn ACL.
C Tier
Detroit Lions, Pittsburgh Steelers, Indianapolis Colts, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Washington Commanders, Minnesota Vikings, New Orleans Saints, Carolina Panthers, Atlanta Falcons, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The C Tier might be the most fluid. If everything clicks for these teams, they can clinch a spot in the playoffs. If it falls apart, they could bottom out and face tough questions about whether to keep their coaching staff and whether to blow up their rosters.
Nothing exemplifies that reality quite like the NFC South. All four teams landed in this tier for two reasons. One, they are all on equal footing, as evidenced by the three-way tie atop the division in 2025. Two, none of them are particularly great, which showed in all of them finishing last season under .500.
The team with the best chance of climbing up to the B Tier is probably the Cowboys. The offense ranked second in yardage last year and seventh in scoring, and it should be just as potent this time around. Tangible changes for the better on defense -- the arrival of coordinator Christian Parker; the trades for Quinnen Williams and Rashan Gary; and the use of draft picks on Caleb Downs, Malachi Lawrence and Jaishawn Barham -- should at least lift the unit out of the NFL's basement.
There are some real regression risks, too. If the Colts are more like the team that struggled in the second half of last season than the one that rolled through the front half, it is going to be a long year. And if Aaron Rodgers regresses further in his final year, the Steelers will struggle to post a winning record.
Most of the NFL enters 2026 in the middle of the pack
Twenty of the league's 32 teams landed in the B or C tiers.
Note: Bar lengths are scaled to the C Tier, which contains a league-high 11 teams.
D Tier
Cleveland Browns, Tennessee Titans, Las Vegas Raiders, New York Jets
These teams have a better chance of landing a top-three draft pick than making the playoffs. That is not necessarily a bad thing for the Browns, Titans and Raiders as they continue to load up on young talent, but if the Jets are one of the few worst teams in the NFL, that will probably mark the end of the Aaron Glenn era.
Cleveland owned more positive momentum than any of the others after it aced another draft and made the difficult but logical choice to trade Myles Garrett. But then the Browns did what they are wont to do -- they made a baffling quarterback decision that will undoubtedly halt their progress. With Deshaun Watson under center, the enticing recent draft picks of KC Concepcion, Denzel Boston, Quinshon Judkins and Harold Fannin Jr. have limited ceilings.
This year is not about contention in Las Vegas but rather about setting the stage for the Fernando Mendoza era. One can visualize the Raiders leaping up into the AFC West title conversation a couple of seasons down the road, but not until Mendoza has his footing underneath him, which might not be until 2027 or later.
As for the Titans, everything is in place to leap into the next echelon, but the wait-and-see approach is prudent after the way Robert Saleh's starting defense floundered in the preseason. The young offensive core is fun, and Saleh can coach a defense with the best of them, but can he put it all together? He did not during his last stint as a head coach.
F Tier
Miami Dolphins, Arizona Cardinals
There is nothing to play for here except the No. 1 pick. Neither the Dolphins nor the Cardinals have a single primetime game in 2026, and there will be times this year when even their own fanbases tune out. It could really be that bad, especially for Miami.
The Dolphins have the worst roster in the league, bar none. The wide receiver cupboard is completely empty, their starting quarterback owns six career starts over four years, and outside of a couple of bright spots on the defensive front, they might not be able to stop anyone. The best-case scenario is for Malik Willis to look the part of a capable starter, allowing the Dolphins to use what should be a top-two pick on something other than quarterback.
Arizona, meanwhile, will be in the quarterback market come draft day. Jacoby Brissett is a fine stopgap who can at least feed the ball to Trey McBride and Jeremiyah Love, but outside of those two skill position players, there is not a whole lot to get excited about long-term. Perhaps Marvin Harrison Jr. will deliver his elusive breakout season, but even that will not be enough to keep the Cardinals firmly on the bottom rung of the NFC West ladder.
