Munetaka Murakami landing spots: Ranking all 30 teams' odds of landing NPB slugger in free agency
Murakami, the single-season home run record holder for a Japanese player in NPB, has been posted to MLB
By
Mike Axisa
•
14 min read
The offseason's most exciting and highest-upside free agent might not be Kyle Tucker or Bo Bichette, or even Cody Bellinger or Dylan Cease. Star Japanese third baseman Munetaka Murakami, he of the 56 home runs in 2022 and 22 home runs in 56 games in 2025, has been posted for MLB teams. The soon-to-be 26-year-old is bringing his prodigious power stateside in 2026.
"This is a legitimate, ridiculous power hitter," Jim Bowden said on CBS Sports HQ earlier this month. "He does profile as a 30-40 home run type guy. Think of the power of Kyle Schwarber and Pete Alonso. That's the kind of power, and maybe even more."
Murakami's 45-day signing window will close at 5 p.m. ET on Monday, Dec. 22. If he doesn't sign a contract by then, he will return to the Tokyo Yakult Swallows. But don't worry. He'll sign. And to be clear, Murakami must sign by that date. An agreement and a handshake is not enough. He has to pass a physical and put pen to paper by 5 p.m. ET on Dec. 22. The whole nine yards.
We ranked Murakami as the seventh-best free agent this offseason. Here's what you need to know about the slugger:
Murakami, 26 in February, is the most famous player of the bunch. He's only a few years removed from breaking Sadaharu Oh's NPB single-season home-run record for a Japanese-born player. Sure enough, Murakami has elite strength that will play on either side of the Pacific. Other facets of his game aren't as certain to port. He swings and misses a lot, resulting in one of the highest strikeout rates (around 28%) among NPB regulars. (NPB hasn't experienced the same strikeout creep as MLB.) Additionally, Murakami isn't much of a defensive presence and he may find himself stationed at either first base or designated hitter in the near future. Some team is going to fall for Murakami, and hard, because of his middle-of-the-order upside and youth. Just be aware that there is a legitimate downside here.
There is risk, to be sure. Murakami has struck out excessively over the last few years, with non-fastballs especially giving him fits. He's also not long for third base. It is rare, game-changing power though, and, given his age, Murakami still has what figure to be his best and most productive years ahead of him. This is a player who is just now entering his prime.
Whichever team signs Murakami will owe the Swallows a posting fee that is based on the size of his contract. The posting fee will be $9.275 million plus 15% of his contract amount over $50 million. We projected Murakami for a six-year contract worth $140 million. That would come with a $22.775 million posting fee, so, all-in, we would be talking $162.775 million.
For reference, Willy Adames signed for $182 million last offseason, when he was three years older than Murakami is now. My hunch is Murakami will beat our projected $140 million because high-end talents in their mid-20s almost always beat contract projections (think Juan Soto, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, etc.). We'll see though. Murakami's contract will be large, I can tell you that much.
As with every free agent, Murakami makes more sense for some teams than others, and vice versa. The great unknown here is how open Murakami is to a position change. If he's willing to shift to first base right away (he's played 266 career games at first), it would open up his market some. If he's dead set on playing third base, well, Murakami may have only so many suitors.
With all that in mind, let's look around the league and rank the 30 teams based on how well Murakami would address their needs (and vice versa) and also how likely they are to sign him. Come with me, won't you?
Small market teams that won't spend (but should)
30. Colorado Rockies
29. Cleveland Guardians
28. Washington Nationals
27. Miami Marlins
26. Minnesota Twins
25. Chicago White Sox
24. Cincinnati Reds
23. (Sacramento) Athletics
22. Pittsburgh Pirates
You can make a compelling case for every single one of these teams signing Murakami. He's only 25, so even if you're in the early stages of a rebuild, he can still be part of your next contending team. Also, it's special power and the only way some of these teams can get that kind of power is by stepping outside their comfort zone and rolling the dice on an unproven free agent. The Pirates, for example, had the worst offense in baseball last season and hit the fewest home runs any team has hit in three years. Plus, they have nothing resembling a long-term solution at the hot corner. Of course they should pursue Murakami. I think we all know these nine teams are unlikely to open their wallets and pay what it takes to sign him, though.
Small market teams that don't need him
21. Tampa Bay Rays
20. Kansas City Royals
19. Baltimore Orioles
18. Milwaukee Brewers
The Rays and Royals legitimately don't have room for Murakami. Tampa is set at third base (Junior Caminero), first base (Jonathan Aranda), and DH (Yandy Díaz). The Royals have Maikel Garcia at third and Vinnie Pasquantino at first, plus Salvador Perez figures to see plenty of time at DH after signing his two-year extension. Kansas City could move Garcia to second base or even center field and slot Murakami in at third. That's something to ponder. It does seem unlikely though. Beyond the financial considerations, Murakami would be a clunky roster fit for the Rays and Royals.
Perhaps it's unfair to call the O's a small market team, but 2025 was the first time they ranked higher than 25th in payroll since 2018, and they were only 17th, per Cot's Baseball Contracts. Anyway, Baltimore is overstuffed with left-handed hitters, hence the trade for Taylor Ward's righty pop. Jordan Westburg is entrenched at third base and they'll need the DH spot for the Samuel Basallo/Adley Rutschman catching timeshare. Coby Mayo did not impress in his limited time at first base this season. That's really the only opening for Murakami. That or a Rutschman trade (clearing the DH spot), which I suppose we can't rule out.
Milwaukee's lack of power hurt them in the NLCS and Murakami would certainly bring power. The first base (Andrew Vaughn) and DH spots (Christian Yelich) are occupied, but if they really want, the Brewers could make room for Murakami at third base. Caleb Durbin played other positions in the minors, including shortstop and the outfield, and could morph into a super utility guy rather than being the everyday starter at the hot corner. It's just hard to see the Brewers doing that, let alone spending this much money.
Big market spenders without a need
17. Atlanta Braves
16. New York Yankees
15. Los Angeles Dodgers
I know, I know, the Dodgers sign all the Japanese players. That isn't really the case though (Kodai Senga, Seiya Suzuki, Masataka Yoshida, and others have signed elsewhere in recent years) and they don't have an obvious place to put Murakami either. First base (Freddie Freeman) and DH (Shohei Ohtani) are non-options, and Max Muncy's club option was picked up earlier this month. Signing Murakami and trading Muncy is doable. I'm just not sold on the Dodgers doing it. The outfield is their priority, not third base.
The Braves are locked into long-term contracts for good players at first (Matt Olson) and third (Austin Riley) bases, plus they need the DH spot for whichever one of Sean Murphy (signed long-term) or Drake Baldwin (NL Rookie of the Year) isn't behind the plate that night. Trading Murphy for pitching in a thin catching market and signing Murakami is a stretch. It would also require sinking a lot of money into a player who will be, at best, a half-time third baseman and half-time DH for a few years (Olson's way too good defensively to not play at first base). Just doesn't seem right.
It wouldn't be too difficult for the Yankees to make Murakami work. Giancarlo Stanton visits the injured list every year, which opens up DH at-bats, plus first baseman Ben Rice can catch. Trading incumbent third baseman Ryan McMahon to make room for Murakami can't be ruled out either. The Yankees have made a concerted effort to get more athletic and better defensively the last 12 months or so, though, and signing Murakami and making the necessary moves to accommodate him would go against that. New York's priority is a good defensive outfielder and more pitching, not another lefty power bat.
We're in a weird place right now
14. Houston Astros
13. St. Louis Cardinals
12. Detroit Tigers
The Astros and Cardinals have been among baseball's most consistent contenders the last 10 years or so, but they both missed the postseason in 2025 (the Cardinals in 2023 and 2024 too) and both seem to be taking a step back this offseason. Houston is cutting payroll in an effort to get under the $244 million competitive balance tax threshold and the Cardinals are retooling. If anything, St. Louis wants to move a lefty bat, not bring one in. That said, Murakami is only 25 and a long-term building block. Is new POBO Chaim Bloom still smarting from the Yoshida deal during his time with Boston? That hasn't worked out too well.
It's easier to see an on-field fit for the Astros even though they have two third basemen (Carlos Correa and Isaac Paredes) and an expensive first baseman (Christian Walker), plus Yordan Alvarez getting plenty of DH time. Their lineup is very short on lefty bats though, and the Astros have reportedly been trying to move Walker since this summer's trade deadline. If they succeed and unload Walker, does Murakami work? They would likely have to clear more salary to sign him. Houston already needs whatever payroll room they have to play with for pitching. This is a tough one to see coming together.
The Tigers are a tricky one. Gleyber Torres accepting the $22.025 million qualifying offer means Colt Keith is locked in at third base. Spencer Torkelson slugged 31 homers in 2025 and solidified himself at first base. Kerry Carpenter's best position is DH. But they could still make it work, right? Give Carpenter more time in the outfield, take at-bats away from Torkelson and Torres (with Keith moving to second) against righties, etc. It's a long shot and why the Tigers aren't higher up in these rankings. That plus the need to keep a big payroll lane clear for a Tarik Skubal extension. It's not completely impossible though.
Contenders that can make it work
Signing Murakami would mean blocking top prospect Bryce Eldridge and require trading him for help elsewhere on the roster, which is not something that should be dismissed out of hand. That's really the only way to make it work though, because third baseman Matt Chapman and first baseman/DH Rafael Devers are signed long-term. Doable? Yeah, sure. Likely? Nah.
10. San Diego Padres
Money figures to be an issue because the Seidler family is looking to sell and it's rare that a team up for sale adds a huge contract (the less money on the books, the more attractive the team is to potential buyers). There's a glaring need for power, though, and getting Murakami at-bats at first base and DH would be a piece of cake. The money's the biggest hang up. On the field, Murakami would fit San Diego's offensive needs and positional group nicely.
The Rangers are reportedly looking to shed money, so much so that Corey Seager has been speculated as a trade candidate, and I'm not sure how they could cut payroll and sign Murakami. Jake Burger and Josh Jung on the infield corners should not stand in the way of signing Murakami. It just comes down to money with the Rangers. I have Texas this high in these rankings because I have more faith in them pivoting and spending than I do the Padres and Tigers, not that I think he's likely to happen.
The Red Sox just traded away a poor defensive third baseman with big lefty power (Rafael Devers), so I'm not sure they will go barking up that tree again so quickly. Murakami is only 25 though. That's the appeal here. Boston has an impressive young core (Garrett Crochet, Roman Anthony, etc.) and Murakami fits their timeline very well. Besides, it's not like they're locked into anything at first base. At-bats are available there.
The best fits
While pitching is the No. 1 priority this offseason, Arizona's projected 2026 payroll is about $40 million south of their 2025 payroll, suggesting there's room to spend on offense in addition to arms. The D-backs have kept erstwhile top prospect Jordan Lawlar at arm's length. He's struggled badly in his limited MLB team and he hasn't gotten the same runway to work through his growing pains as, say, Alek Thomas. I would not consider their first or third base (or DH) situations settled, hence this spot in the rankings.
6. Chicago Cubs
The Cubs have a strong recent history with Japanese players (Shota Imanaga, Seiya Suzuki, etc.) and will need to replace Kyle Tucker's lefty might. Matt Shaw didn't hit much in his MLB debut this year, though he was a Gold Glove finalist at third base. Michael Busch is locked in at first base and not going anywhere. Signing Murakami as a full-time DH, or as part of the corner infield/DH rotation, is a fine idea. I'm just not sure how appealing that would be to Murakami. In theory, the Cubbies have money to spend and it wouldn't too difficult to make it work positionally. I may have them too high in these rankings, however.
POBO David Stearns has said improving the defense, specifically on the infield, is a priority this offseason, and signing Murakami would go against that. There are plenty of openings for him though. Pete Alonso is a free agent, so first base is available. Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio, and Mark Vientos should not be considered roadblocks at third base. DH is available too, though Juan Soto will see more time there moving forward. We know the Mets have money. Pairing the soon-to-be 26-year-old Murakami with the just turned 27-year-old Soto has to be at least a little tempting, no?
Perhaps the biggest hangup for the Blue Jays with Murakami is not the money or the positional fit. It's the strikeouts. Toronto was two outs away from a World Series championship in large part because they do not strike out much as a team. The 2025 Blue Jays combined contact with power as well as any team since the 2019-22 Astros. Bo Bichette may leave though, in which case Andrés Giménez slides to short and Ernie Clement plays second, freeing up third base. George Springer has just one year remaining on his contract too, so DH at-bats will open soon. The Blue Jays have been connected to Cody Bellinger and Kyle Tucker in the early days of the offseason. They're eager to spend and get over the hump in 2026. If they're willing to make an exception and carry one high strikeout hitter, Murakami heading to Toronto suddenly becomes very realistic.
The Mariners may have already taken their big free-agent swing when they re-signed Josh Naylor and they can justify staying in-house at third base with tippy top prospect Colt Emerson not far away (and Ben Williamson offering high-end defense in the interim). Also, Cal Raleigh will get regular DH starts. The Mariners do need another bat though, and Raleigh won't DH full-time, and Emerson has six career games in Triple-A. The bottom of their lineup was shockingly thin this past postseason. Murakami alone won't fix that, but he would be a step in the right direction. Bottom line, Seattle's World Series window is wide open. Adding a good (potentially great) young slugger at a position of need should in no way be off the table.
It's an open secret the Phillies want to shake up their lineup after another quick and disappointing postseason exit. Trading Alec Bohm and putting Murakami at third base is the easy move. Letting Kyle Schwarber walk as a free agent and putting Murakami at DH would be the unpopular yet bold move. Philadelphia's World Series window is as open as it's going to get and home runs win in the postseason. Murakami hits 'em. The Phillies have an opening at DH and can easily create an opening at third base. Hmmm.
All indications are Anthony Rendon will never play again. Third base is wide open. Their best (only) lefty power threat is Nolan Schanuel, who has 26 home runs in more than 1,300 big league plate appearances. The Angels have experience helping Japanese players make the move to MLB and acclimate to a new culture. After trading Taylor Ward, their projected 2026 payroll is about $50 million south of their 2025 figure. The Angels want to contend and, bless their heart, think they can next year. It all lines up nicely, doesn't it? They need a power-hitting left-handed third baseman and are well-versed in the Japanese market. I can't say I'm convinced it'll happen, but Murakami strikes me as a wonderful fit for the Angels, and vice versa.
