The hot stove is up to temperature, the wheeling and dealing has commenced, and a number of noteworthy free agents have already come off the board. Where can you turn for guidance amid this maelstrom of maneuvers?
Right here is where. Chris Towers and I will be making the Offseason Tracker our home base for the next few months, churning out content as the news warrants. Here, you'll get a breakdown of all the moves that matter for Fantasy Baseball without all the fluff. (OK, maybe a little fluff.)
Bookmark it. Read it. Live by it.
Sonny Gray traded to the Red Sox
The Red Sox have been expected to make a big splash in either free agency or in the trade market for a rotation upgrade, and this trade might be it. Gray struggled to a 4.28 ERA and 1.23 WHIP last season, but his underlying metrics were more indicative of a top-of-rotation arm, including a 26.7% strikeout rate, 3.39 FIP and 3.29 SIERA. The 36-year-old has seen his velocity decline in consecutive seasons, however, and his quality of contact metrics took a big step back in 2025, which is why his xERA was a more pedestrian 3.90 mark. He's a solid pitcher, both for the Red Sox and for Fantasy, but I don't think he's a needle-mover in either instance at this point in his career, even if the Red Sox might be able to get him in their pitching lab and squeeze some extra value out of him. There's still room for the Red Sox to upgrade this rotation, in other words.
Richard Fitts and Brandon Clarke traded to the Cardinals
In exchange for Gray, the Cardinals got a couple of interesting younger arms. Fitts is more of a known quantity, and he hasn't given us much reason to be excited – he had a 5.00 ERA with even worse peripherals in 2025, so while he might slide into the Cardinals rotation, it'll mostly be for a lack of better options.
Clarke is the more interesting long-term project, with a fastball that can touch 100 mph and a slider that is already a weapon. The rest of the arsenal is a work in progress and he walked 27 in just 38 innings across two levels of A-Ball in 2025, so this is a real project. If all comes together, he might be able to hack it as a starter, but he looks more like a Ryan Helsley-in-waiting type of high-leverage bullpen arm in the long run.
The other thing worth noting here is that, with Gray out of the picture and Miles Mikolas leaving via free agency, there are multiple holes in the Cardinals rotation right now. Prospects Quinn Mathews and Tink Hence have experience in the high minors and could be options for the 2026 rotation, though both have troublesome 2025 campaigns that could lead the team to want to see more success at Triple-A before they make that call. For Fantasy, those are both names to know heading into Spring Training in case they can steal rotation spots, while 2025 first-round pick Liam Doyle seems likely to be more of a mid-season consideration after he threw just 3.2 post-draft innings in the pros. But he could absolutely be a fast riser early in 2026, too.
The Mets and Rangers continued the early offseason trend of trading major leaguers for other major leaguers in an exchange of two aging ones with multiple years remaining on their deals. Nimmo, who's 32, has shown only faint signs of decline, if even those, continuing to make worthwhile contributions in home runs and stolen bases with big run and RBI production. He's joining a worse lineup that plays in a worse venue, but any changes to his production would be slight, presuming good health.
Semien, who's 35, has seen his production nosedive the past two years, but this trade may serve to slow or even reverse the decline given the park upgrade. Statcast estimates he'd have a dozen more home runs during that same two-year span if he had played every game at Citi Field. That's my biggest takeaway from this trade, but Chris Towers has written a complete breakdown of it, which you can find here. --Scott White
Iglesias re-ups for one year at exactly the same rate ($16 million) as the previous three. Clearly, the Braves were looking for continuity, and that makes the analysis here rather easy. He's the closer again for an expected contender and a near lock for 30 saves, provided he stays healthy. He missed that number by one in 2025, mostly because of some early-season struggles. Once he cut back on his slider, though, he was clearly back to form, compiling a 1.25 ERA, 0.69 WHIP and 10.0 K/9 in his final 45 appearances. That'll play, all right, and positions Iglesias to be one of the first 12 relievers off the board in 2026. --Scott White
What a fall for Rodriguez, who was regarded a couple years ago as one of the game's burgeoning aces after a multi-year run as a top-10 overall prospect. Now, the Orioles have dealt him away for one year of some 32-year-old outfielder who just hit .228. That's not entirely fair to Ward, who also connected for 36 home runs in 2025, but most projections have him regressing to 25-30 in 2026. He's also joining a team that's loaded with solid-but-less-than-All-Star-worthy corner bats. There already wasn't room in the lineup for all of Dylan Beavers, Samuel Basallo, Coby Mayo, Tyler O'Neill and Ryan Mountcastle. Now, there's room for one fewer. It won't be Ward, but does that mean we'll have to wait even longer for Basallo to contribute in Fantasy? If so, that's a bummer.
But the real story here is Rodriguez, who Angels GM Perry Minasian says is expected to be ready for spring training after missing all of 2025 with lat and elbow issues. The lat has been a recurring problem, also costing Rodriguez time in 2024 and as a minor leaguer in 2022, and the elbow required debridement surgery in August. The Orioles only made this deal because they couldn't trust him to stay healthy, but having said that, he wouldn't be the first pitcher to overcome a multi-year injury trend and still go on to meet his potential. We have no evidence that his stuff has diminished with this latest rash of injuries, so I'm still inclined to rank him as a top 75 starting pitcher for 2026. This trade is sure to give some drafters pause even at that late stage, though. --Scott White
Grisham's decision to accept the qualifying offer is a curious one given that he just had far and away his best season, homering 34 times as the primary center fielder for the Yankees. Some major outlets were projecting him to receive a four- or five-year deal for a similar annual value as the qualifying offer, but his agent probably has a better read on the market.
If nothing else, you could say he's betting on himself with this move, hoping to re-enter the market next offseason without the stigma of being a one-hit wonder, but now comes the hard part: doing it again. You might think the return to Yankee Stadium will help, given that he's a left-handed batter, but he actually hit two-thirds of his home runs on the road. If the Yankees are serious about giving Jasson Dominguez regular playing time next year and also bringing back Cody Bellinger, Grisham may be fighting for at-bats again. The Yankees still make for a better landing than a lot of clubs, but you can understand why drafters might approach Grisham with some skepticism in 2026. --Scott White
A modest showing by Torres in 2025 led him to accept the Tigers' qualifying offer rather than testing the free agent market, and you might think a return to Comerica Park is a bad move for his Fantasy value given its reputation. But it actually played well for right-handed hitters in 2025, and Torres batted .285 with a .449 slugging percentage there compared to .223 and .327 on the road. On balance, he performed well below his .271 xBA and .452 xSLG, having delivered his best average exit velocity in three years and some of his best walk and strikeout numbers ever, so some better luck would go a long way toward redeeming him in Fantasy. He's not a surefire top-12 choice, though, even at a position as thin as second base. --Scott White
Something tells me that if Woodruff hadn't gone into the offseason nursing a lat injury, he wouldn't have had to accept the Brewers' qualifying offer, instead pursuing a multi-year deal. But now, he's back in prove-it mode after already overcoming a more significant shoulder injury in near miraculous fashion. Even though the shoulder capsule surgery that he underwent in 2023 took 3 mph off his fastball -- normally a career-ender for a pitcher, particularly one so fastball-reliant -- he basically picked up where he left off statistically, even delivering the best strikeout rate of his career. A new cutter is largely to credit for saving him, and his fortunes rose and fell with its usage. He'll be plenty motivated now that he's pitching for a contract again, but he would have been worth selecting among the top 36 starting pitchers either way. --Scott White
The Cubs' decision to decline Imanaga's three-year, $57.5 million option after the season makes more sense now that we see the way everything played out. They probably suspected he'd accept the $22.025 million qualifying offer, which he did, so now they still have him but without the multi-year commitment.
The maneuver would seem to alleviate suspicions that he's cooked, which were worth entertaining given that a number of key metrics fell off during his sophomore season, namely his K/9 rate (from 9.0 to 7.3) and his swinging-strike rate (from 14.5 percent to 11.9 percent). It's sort of misleading to call it his sophomore season given that he's 32, and his age contributed to those fears of decline as well. Still, he was effective when healthy, remaining a standout for WHIP in particular. No one will mistake him for an ace in 2026, but he should be drafted in the middle rounds. --Scott White
Normally, a hitter signing with the Mariners wouldn't be the most favorable outcome given T-Mobile Park's reputation as a pitcher-friendly venue. But Naylor didn't have any problems there after coming over in a midseason trade with the Diamondbacks, batting .360 (32 for 89) with five homers and a 1.015 OPS in the Mariners' home games.
Moreover, the Mariners seemed to unlock the base-stealer in him. His 11 stolen bases in 93 games with the Diamondbacks were surprising enough, but then he had 19 in just 54 games with the Mariners. Given his 3rd percentile sprint speed, some other team might have put a stop to that, but the Mariners don't seem to care. He was succeeding, after all. It's doubtful he steals 30 again, which is why he remains only eighth in my first base rankings, but a return to the Mariners improves Naylor's chances of remaining a base-stealer in some capacity. For more, check out Chris Towers' full-length article. --Scott White
