We did it.

Last week, we went a perfect 5-0. It took until quite literally the last play, but the Browns beat the Titans. Daniel Jones threw an interception. Ashton Jeanty and Josh Jacobs both went under their respective rushing totals of 49.5 and 47.5, and both legs of our two-part Rams parlay — moneyline vs. the Raiders and Blake Corum 40+ rushing + receiving yards — hit.

That's a great week! I'm pumped to have responded from a bad Week 6. But as anyone in the NFL would say, the best thing to do after a win is stack wins. So let's get to stacking.

As always, all odds are via DraftKings.

Trey McBride 70+ receiving yards (-127)

We, as an NFL-viewing public, are being robbed of one of the most fun players to watch. Trey McBride is an absolute monster, but he's stuck on yet another bad Cardinals team. He has have at least seven catches in nine consecutive games. Nine! That is ...

  • The longest streak ever by a tight end
  • Tied for the longest streak by any player in the past five seasons
  • Six games longer than the next-longest active streak (Malik Nabers with three)

Last week, McBride had 10 catches for 111 yards and a touchdown against the vaunted Broncos defense. Now he faces a less-than-daunting Cowboys defense. The Cardinals will have to throw a ton to keep up with Dallas' offense, which should tear apart an overmatched Arizona defense. Expect another huge day from McBride, the most underappreciated superstar in the league. If he played for a team with any playoff hopes, he'd be getting his flowers week-in, week-out.

Steelers ML vs. Browns (-192)

The Browns haven't won a regular-season game in Pittsburgh since 2003.

I could leave it there, but that'd be insincere analysis; this Browns team shouldn't have to answer for past Browns teams. Still, I don't think they will end the streak. The Steelers have a bulldozing running game, and more importantly, they're finally leaning into it. Through four weeks, the Steelers were one of the most pass-happy teams in the NFL. In Week 4 against the Browns, Pittsburgh dropped back 45 times compared to just 19 runs. But over the past three weeks, they've been roughly average in pass rate over expected.

Now, they face a Browns defense that just allowed 129 yards (on 5.2 yards per carry) and three touchdowns to Tony Pollard. Only four teams have allowed more explosive rushes this year than the Browns. Add in that Deshaun Watson has just two passing touchdowns over the past four weeks and ranks 25th in EPA per dropback, and I don't think Cleveland can end this streak.

Zay Flowers 90+ receiving yards (+116)

We'll make this quick. Here are Zay Flowers' numbers with a healthy Lamar Jackson this year:

  • Week 1: Five catches, 150 yards, one touchdown in the first half (Flowers got hurt and didn't play in the second half)
  • Week 3: Five catches, 84 yards (Flowers was limited in his return from injury)
  • Week 4: Six catches, 119 yards, one touchdown in the first half (Jackson got hurt and didn't play in the second half)

Flowers is healthy. Jackson is expected to be back. Cue the fireworks, especially in what should be a high-scoring game against the Bills.

Patriots at Dolphins OVER 43.5 points (-108)

After a brutal start to the season, the Dolphins' offense has found its footing over its past two games, scoring 24 points against the Bengals and 28 against the Jets in Miami's first win of the season last week.

It's not a very efficient operation down-to-down, but there's a lot of explosiveness here with Malik Willis' dual-threat ability. Miami is 30th in success rate but 16th in explosive rate this season, the latter a pretty good number considering how poorly the unit started. Explosives = points, and we're looking for points here.

The Patriots should have no trouble playing their part. Drake Maye has rediscovered his deep ball recently, and the Dolphins are allowing the third-highest yards per completion rate in the NFL. Let's see some points in South Beach.

Jaguars -5.5 vs. Colts AND Bhayshul Tuten 80+ rushing + receiving yards (+114)

It's been a brutal couple of weeks for the Colts, who lost to the previously winless Titans, fired GM Chris Ballard, lost to the Vikings and then traded Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner.

Long story short, I think the Jaguars, coming off a bye, are going to have their way against a downtrodden team that could be looking to sell even more. The game script should really favor Bhayshul Tuten, who has been excellent this year. Even if the counting and rate numbers aren't outstanding, he is a top-10 running back in terms of yards after contact per carry. Now, he gets a Colts defense that is 28th in yards per carry allowed.

We'll tag on an alternate line: Jaguars -5.5 for this week's parlay. Jacksonville is a 10-point favorite, but this is the NFL. Weird stuff happens. I think Jacksonville will shut down Jonathan Taylor, and when that happens, Daniel Jones is in big trouble.

Season record: 18-17

Week 8 picks

Packers beat Panthers
Ravens beat Bills
Bengals beat Titans
Cowboys beat Cardinals
Lions beat Vikings
Jaguars beat Colts
Raiders beat Jets
Steelers beat Browns
Falcons beat Buccaneers
Rams beat Chargers
Chiefs beat Broncos
Patriots beat Dolphins
Commanders beat Eagles
Seahawks beat Bears

Season record: 68-39
Last week: 9-5