NFL Week 1 picks: Aaron Rodgers wins revenge game vs. Jets, Bears upset Vikings

Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season is finally here. No more meaningless headlines from rookie minicamps or low-scoring preseason games, real football is upon us. They say Week 1 is a liar, but I think it's the most fun week of the entire season. It's where you get to compare your preconceived notions with reality, and see where you were right and where you were wrong. 

I'm fascinated by every single game on this Week 1 slate, and I can sell any one of these matchups as entertaining. Want to try me? How about the Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars? Oh, you mean two former No. 1 overall picks trying to get their careers back on track? 

Bryce Young ended last season as one of the hottest quarterbacks in the NFL, scoring 10 total touchdowns compared to zero turnovers in his final three games. He became the first quarterback since Drew Brees to accomplish this. 

Trevor Lawrence now has Liam Coen to work with, who has a history of getting the most out of his quarterbacks, and he's throwing to a rising star named Brian Thomas Jr., who had a rookie season that resembled the ones had by Randy Moss and Odell Beckham Jr. We have two running back brothers facing off in Travis Etienne and Trevor Etienne, plus the reigning Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year, Biletnikoff Award winner and Heisman Trophy winner makes his NFL debut. Yes, one person won all those awards last year. Oh, and the Jaguars have a kicker that made a 70-yard field goal in the preseason. Is he our new Justin Tucker?

Here's a look at what I'm thinking for Week 1. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart. 

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, where new users get $300 in bonus bets with a winning $5 bet:

Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) at New York Jets

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)

I don't view the Steelers as a legitimate contender this year, but this is a consistent franchise with a head coach entering his 20th season facing off against a first-year lead man trying to revamp a losing franchise. The Steelers are 4-0 straight up and against the spread in their last four Week 1 games on the road, and Aaron Rodgers is likely ready for this revenge game after his weird interaction with Aaron Glenn before leaving New York.

What it really comes down to for me is how this Jets offense led by Justin Fields is going to look against a stout defense. I doubt New York knows what its offensive identity is just yet, which means the Steelers will win a low-scoring, non-entertaining affair. 

Steelers defense in 2024

The pick: Steelers -2.5
Projected score: Steelers 13-10

Arizona Cardinals (-6.5) at New Orleans Saints

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)

With the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, the New Orleans Saints select ... whichever quarterback emerges as the top signal-caller in college football. Maybe that's Garrett Nussmeier or Drew Allar. But yes, I believe the Saints will be the worst team in the NFL this season. 

Spencer Rattler got the nod over Tyler Shough, but you have to imagine both quarterbacks will start at some point this season. I admit 6.5 points for a road team in Week 1 is a lot, but in this case it's probably warranted. Some believe the Cardinals are going to be a big-time sleeper this season, and I can see why. Kyler Murray is an exciting dual-threat quarterback, Marvin Harrison Jr. appears set up for a big second season, Trey McBride has established himself as one of the best up-and-coming tight ends in the NFL and this defense made some nice additions as well. Josh Sweat, Dalvin Tomlinson and Calais Campbell should make an immediate impact on this defensive front, then rookie cornerback Will Johnson was a steal at No. 47 overall.

If you're a gambler, you probably have figured out by now that backing Kyler is smart. Murray is 25-12-2 ATS as a starter on the road in his career. That's the second-best mark by a starting quarterback since 1970. 

The pick: Cardinals -6.5
Projected score: Cardinals 27-16

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)

I'm going out on a limb here. The Colts have failed to win 11 straight season openers and their new quarterback is Daniel Jones. I don't know if he's going to follow the Baker Mayfield career arc, but I have concerns about Miami.

Tyreek Hill is no longer a team captain following his outburst after last year's regular-season finale, and De'Von Achane is coming back from a calf injury. Now, if Jaylen Waddle, Hill and Achane take over this game with their speed, backing the Colts is silly. But I have faith that this new-look secondary of Charvarius Ward, Xavien Howard, who is a former Dolphin, and Camryn Bynum can do just enough to hold the Dolphins in check. 

One reason I find myself backing the Colts is because the Dolphins may have the worst cornerback room in the NFL. That will help Jones, Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr., Tyler Warren and then Alec Pierce is good for at least one good deep ball. 

The pick: Colts -1.5
Projected score: Colts 20-17

Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos (-7.5)

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

The Titans shouldn't be a complete train wreck this season with Cameron Ward under center, but having to begin your NFL career on the road against the most aggressive defense in the league is tough. Denver ranked No. 1 in defensive EPA last season, had the most defensive plays with a sack, forced fumble or interception (90), led the NFL in sacks (63) and ranked top five in pressure rate (40%) and blitz rate (37%). That's unbelievable -- and I would argue that this defense just got better with the additions of Dre Greenlaw, Talanoa Hufanga and Jahdae Barron. 

Offensively, quarterback Bo Nix had a chance to win Offensive Rookie of the Year last season. He's one of just two rookies to ever win double-digit games, account for 4,000 total yards and score 30 total touchdowns. The other player was Jayden Daniels. Nix also went 11-5-1 ATS, which was tied for the second-best ATS record by a rookie since 1970! As for the Titans, their 2-15 ATS mark last season was the worst by a team since at least 1970. 

The pick: Broncos -7.5
Projected score: Broncos 27-17

Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) at Chicago Bears

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

I love what Minnesota did around the quarterback this offseason, shoring up the offensive and defensive trenches and bringing in Adam Thielen to run opposite of Justin Jefferson while Jordan Addison is suspended, but if J.J. McCarthy struggles, the Vikings will struggle. I can't imagine it's fun to take your first NFL snap on the road in prime time against a rival while trying to out-duel a Ben Johnson-led offense.

I'm not saying Caleb Williams is going to be in the MVP conversation, but he should be improved given this new situation. Not only does he have Johnson to develop him, but an improved offensive line and a great arsenal that includes D'Andre Swift, DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III, Colston Loveland and Cole Kmet. 

The Vikings are 0-6 SU and 1-4-1 ATS in their last six road prime-time games, and I have a hard time believing McCarthy is an automatic upgrade over Sam Darnold. 

The pick: Bears +1.5
Projected score: Bears 20-16

Other Week 1 picks

Eagles 23-17 over Cowboys (+8.5)
Chiefs (-3) 24-20 over Chargers
Commanders (-5.5) 28-21 over Giants
Jaguars (-3.5) 27-23 over Panthers
Patriots (-2.5) 17-14 over Raiders
Bengals (-5.5) 27-20 over Browns
Buccaneers (-1.5) 30-23 over Falcons
Seahawks (+1.5) 17-16 over 49ers
Packers (-2.5) 26-21 over Lions
Texans (+3) 24-23 over Rams
Ravens (+1.5) 27-24 over Bills