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With just three weeks remaining in the NFL regular season, the stakes are getting higher and higher with every matchup. Thirteen teams have been eliminated from playoff contention and just two teams -- the Denver Broncos and the Los Angeles Rams -- have clinched postseason berths. That leaves 17 teams fighting for 12 playoff spots.

In the AFC, things have cleared up a little bit with the Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins and Cincinnati Bengals all eliminated in Week 15. Here's how the playoff picture looks

  1. Denver Broncos (12-2, lead AFC West, clinched playoff berth)
  2. New England Patriots (11-3, lead AFC East)
  3. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4, lead AFC South)
  4. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6, lead AFC North)
  5. Los Angeles Chargers (10-4)
  6. Buffalo Bills (10-4)
  7. Houston Texans (9-5)
  8. Indianapolis Colts (8-6)
  9. Baltimore Ravens (7-7)

The NFC features two heavyweight divisions, meaning a strong team from either the NFC North or the NFC West will find itself on the outside looking in.

  1. Los Angeles Rams (11-3, lead NFC West, clinched playoff berth)
  2. Chicago Bears (10-4, lead NFC North)
  3. Philadelphia Eagles (9-5, lead NFC East)
  4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7, lead NFC South)
  5. Seattle Seahawks (11-3)
  6. San Francisco 49ers (10-4)
  7. Green Bay Packers (9-4-1)
  8. Detroit Lions (8-6)
  9. Carolina Panthers (7-7)
  10. Dallas Cowboys (6-7-1)

It's a jumbled mess, but with so many of these teams facing off against one another, nine teams could clinch a playoff berth this weekend.

NFL playoff-clinching scenarios for Week 16: Eagles, 49ers and Packers among nine teams that could earn berth
John Breech
NFL playoff-clinching scenarios for Week 16: Eagles, 49ers and Packers among nine teams that could earn berth

As such, here are the 10 most important games that could shape the playoff picture left on the schedule.

1. Rams at Seahawks (Week 16)

Week 16 kicks off with one of the biggest games of the year. Though the Rams have already clinched a spot and the Seahawks are essentially a shoo-in at this point, this game will go a huge way toward determining the No. 1 seed in the NFC and everything that comes with it: home-field advantage until the Super Bowl and a first-round bye.

Both teams enter at 11-3; the Rams have the edge thanks to a 21-19 head-to-head win over the Seahawks back in Week 9. Los Angeles will be a heavy favorite in each of its final two games of the season, so if it can win this one, it will have a great chance to earn the top spot in the NFC.

2. Packers at Bears (Week 16)

To illustrate how close the NFC is, the Packers fell from the No. 2 seed to the No. 7 seed last week with one loss. With a loss this week, the Bears could experience the exact same fall, depending on other games around the conference.

But with a win, the Bears can come very close to wrapping up the NFC North in what would be one of the more surprising division crowns in recent memory.

The Packers, even with all their injury woes and the fact that they're the current last team in, have a solid floor. At 9-7-1, Green Bay is 1.5 games up on the No. 8 seed in the NFC (8-6 Detroit) and already swept the season series between the two.

3. Steelers at Lions (Week 16)

An inter-conference matchup like this one, being ranked this high, might be a surprise. But this is a huge one for both 8-6 teams.

The Steelers would love to keep their one-game cushion or even build a two-game lead over the Ravens, who have the difficult task of hosting the Patriots this weekend. But imagine a world in which the Steelers lose to the Lions and the Ravens beat the Patriots. All of a sudden, there'd be a tie atop the AFC North again, and a Week 18 Steelers-Ravens showdown would be looming large.

The Lions, meanwhile, are in essentially a must-win scenario. As we outlined above, they're in a tough spot trying to catch the current No. 7 seed Packers. But if they can pull closer to Chicago or potentially a non-Packers NFC Wild Card contender, they'd have better chances.

4. Bears at 49ers (Week 17)

The 49ers just quietly keep going about their business and are quietly just one game back of the Rams for the No. 1 seed. They are in a very strong position for a wild card spot at the very least, and they could be in position for much more depending on how the next weeks go.

For now, though, we'll keep the focus on the Bears. There's a very real scenario here in which ...

  • The Bears lose to the Packers in Week 16
  • The Lions beat the Steelers in Week 16

That leaves the Bears one game up on the Lions entering Week 17, when Chicago faces another potential playoff team in the 49ers. Even at 10-4 and second in the NFC, Chicago is in a precarious position given the difficulty of its schedule, which concludes with ...

5. Lions at Bears (Week 18)

Fear not (yet), Chicago fans. SportsLine still gives the Bears an 81% chance to make the playoffs.

But let's say over the next two weeks, the Lions are able to crawl within one game of the Bears. That could make this Week 18 game a win-and-in game, because Detroit already has the head-to-head advantage. The Lions will be big fans of the Packers and 49ers over the next few weeks.

6. Buccaneers at Panthers (Week 16)

Even though the Buccaneers and the Panthers are tied atop the NFC South, SportsLine gives Tampa Bay a 75% chance to make the playoffs and Carolina just a 25% chance. Why? There are two reasons:

  • This is the first of two meetings between these teams; the Buccaneers get to host the Panthers in Week 18.
  • In Week 17, the Buccaneers play the Miami Dolphins, a much easier opponent than the Panthers, who host the Seahawks.
  • So even if the Panthers win this game, there's a good chance they'd have to win at Tampa Bay in Week 18. The only way that wouldn't happen is if the Panthers win their next two games and the Buccaneers lose their next two games.

It could happen. We've seen some wild results out of the NFC South. But for now, the Buccaneers have the significant edge, and even with a Panthers win in Week 16, Carolina would likely have to win again in Week 18. 

7. 49ers at Colts (Week 16)

The second interconference matchup on this list, Colts vs. 49ers, is a near-must-win for Indianapolis, which sits eighth in the AFC after a fourth straight loss. SportsLine has Indianapolis down to just a 14% chance to make the playoffs, and for good reason. Indianapolis is battered and bruised at almost every part of its roster. It is starting 44-year-old Philip Rivers at quarterback. The good memories of an 8-2 start are long gone.

This is the Colts' best chance to get up and show they're not done. They cannot afford to lose any more ground in the AFC wild card race.

8. Texans at Chargers (Week 17)

The Colts' crumbling has benefited the Chargers and the Texans, who currently occupy the No. 5 and No. 7 spots in the AFC wild card picture, respectively. The Texans have won six straight, and the Chargers have won three straight, and at this moment, it's hard to see the Colts catching either one.

But it's not impossible. The Texans, especially, can ill afford to slip up, considering they are just one game ahead of Indianapolis and still have a head-to-head matchup to play. The Chargers would love to hang onto the No. 4 seed and likely face the winner of the underwhelming AFC North in the first round.

9. Seahawks at 49ers (Week 18)

There is a world in which both the Seahawks and the 49ers win their next two games. That would set up a Week 18 showdown between Seattle and San Francisco for the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Seattle would be 13-3 and San Francisco would be 12-4, but the 49ers got a 21-17 head-to-head win in Week 1, meaning a win in Week 18 would secure the tiebreaker.

Or, there's another scenario in which the Seahawks and/or 49ers slip up and leave the door open for the Lions. There's a reasonable chance this game impacts nothing but wild card seeding, but there's also a chance it shakes up the playoff picture in a major way.

10. Patriots at Ravens (Week 16)

It'd be hard not to have the enigmatic Ravens on this list, so they sneak on. Baltimore has just a 34% chance to make the playoffs according to SportsLine because its final three games are vs. Patriots, at Packers, at Steelers and Pittsburgh leads the AFC North by a game. But as outlined above, the Steelers have a tough Week 16 game. If they drop that one and the Ravens can get a home win over New England, they're right back in the thick of it.

The Patriots, meanwhile, can officially clinch a playoff berth with a win this weekend.

Honorable mentions

  • Week 16: Jaguars at Broncos
  • Week 17: Ravens at Packers, Jaguars at Colts
  • Week 18: Chargers at Broncos, Colts at Texans (maybe), Panthers at Buccaneers (maybe), Ravens at Steelers (maybe)