Could Shedeur Sanders start a game in 2025? Ranking rookie QBs not taken in first round likely to make debut

So much about an NFL player's career trajectory can be decided by what round the player is selected in the NFL Draft. 

First-round picks will typically be given more runway to develop while that patience can dwindle by the round for players drafted outside of the first 32 picks. Given the average NFL career lasts somewhere between three and four years, it's crucial for later-round picks to make an impact or at least an impression early on. Preseason football is absolutely massive for non-first-round picks because of that reality.  

That's why it's worth wondering what opportunity awaits the quarterbacks who weren't selected in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft. Below, we'll rank them from least likely to most likely to start a game in the 2025 NFL season. Please note that means Tennessee Titans rookie quarterback Cameron Ward, the 2025 NFL Draft's first overall pick, and New York Giants rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart, the 2025 NFL Draft's 25th overall pick, will not be on this list since they were both first-round selections. 

11. Houston Texans: Graham Mertz

• Draft slot: 197th overall (sixth round)

Graham Mertz's NFL career couldn't have gotten off to an uglier start than it did in the Houston Texans' preseason opener at the Minnesota Vikings. The rookie sixth-round pick played horrific football, throwing a discouraging three interceptions while completing only 50% of his passes -- 7 of 14 for 27 yards. After that disaster, it's clear Houston doesn't feel like it needs to see much more of him in the preseason: Mertz totaled only three dropbacks in the Texans' second preseason game against the Carolina Panthers. He did complete both of his pass attempts for 2 yards. Mertz is very much a cut candidate. 

10. Philadelphia Eagles: Kyle McCord

• Draft slot: 181st overall (sixth round)      

Kyle McCord shares a quarterback room with Super Bowl LIX MVP Jalen Hurts and backup Tanner McKee, a player CBS Sports' Jeff Kerr reports Philadelphia sees a starting-caliber quarterback. McKee shredded the Cincinnati Bengals in the Eagles' preseason opener: he threw for 252 yards and two touchdowns on 20 of 25 passing while also rushing for a score via the "Tush Push." If McCord starts a game in 2025, that means the season has been an absolute disaster for the defending champs. 

9. San Francisco 49ers: Kurtis Rourke

• Draft slot: 227th overall (seventh round)      

Kurtis Rourke has a major uphill battle to earn a start in 2025. The 49ers just bequeathed a five-year, $265 million contract extension upon 26-year-old quarterback Brock Purdy this offseason, and they also acquired coach Kyle Shanahan's rumored 2021 NFL Draft crush Mac Jones to back up Purdy. Leapfrogging not one but two Shanahan favorites will be incredibly difficult for Rourke, especially when factoring in that he's working his way back from a torn ACL and hasn't played yet this preseason. 

8. Las Vegas Raiders: Cam Miller

• Draft slot: 215th overall (sixth round)     

North Dakota State FCS All-America dual-threat quarterback Cam Miller enters into an ideal situation playing for offensive coordinator Chip Kelly in Las Vegas -- an offensive play caller whose biggest successes occurred at the collegiate level with Oregon and Ohio State. However, he's behind entrenched starting quarterback Geno Smith, a longtime pupil of coach Pete Carroll, and Aidan O'Connell, a third-year quarterback with 17 games of experience as NFL starting quarterback. Only injuries will get Miller on the field past two established NFL passers. 

7. Pittsburgh Steelers: Will Howard

• Draft slot: 185th overall (sixth round)        

It could be argued no college quarterback helped his NFL future more than Will Howard, who helped lead the Ohio State Buckeyes to their first national championship in 10 years in his lone season in Columbus. Howard starts the season behind an Aaron Rodgers who is set to turn 42 years old in December, and it wasn't that long ago that Rodgers tore his Achilles four plays into the 2023 season with the New York Jets. 

Rodgers' injury risk is certainly high, but even if he goes down, Howard would have to hurdle longtime Steelers backup Mason Rudolph and new Pittsburgh backup Skylar Thompson. That's plenty of competition, which makes it harder to envision Howard starting a game this season than some of his other 2025 draft class members. His hand injury that caused him to miss the preseason also derailed his shot to make an early impression as a rookie. 

6. Miami Dolphins: Quinn Ewers 

• Draft slot: 231st overall (seventh round)      

The Miami Dolphins have one of the shakiest quarterback rooms in the entire NFL. Pro Bowl starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa's concussion history looms large, and the current No. 2 on the depth chart is New York Jets castoff Zach Wilson -- hardly a reliable backup. There's a very real chance Quinn Ewers gets a start or two at the end of the season. 

5. Indianapolis Colts: Riley Leonard

• Draft slot: 189th overall (sixth round)     

The Indianapolis Colts' starting quarterback job was won by New York Giants flameout Daniel Jones, a move that reeks of desperation from coach Shane Steichen and general manager Chris Ballard as detailed by CBS Sports' Jared Dubin. There's a very good chance Jones disappoints, and then the Colts are forced to turn back toward 2023 fourth overall pick Anthony Richardson. The former top five pick happens to be injury prone: Richardson's 15 games started are the second-fewest among Week 1 quarterback starters in each of the last two seasons -- ahead of only Cleveland Browns pariah Deshaun Watson's 13. 

That leaves the somewhat realistic scenario in which the Colts turn to Riley Leonard at some point in the second half of the season after Jones disappoints and Richardson exits with yet another injury. 

4. Cleveland Browns: Dillon Gabriel 

• Draft slot: 94th overall (third round)    

The Cleveland Browns named 40-year-old Joe Flacco their starting quarterback for the 2025 season on Monday to end the NFL's most crowded quarterback competition. However, that doesn't mean Flacco is going to last the entire season. Almost every 40-year-old quarterback outside of Brett Favre and Tom Brady struggled once crossing that age threshold. There's a very good chance Cleveland could be rotating through starting quarterbacks at the tail end of the season, and that puts Dillon Gabriel in the mix to start. 

3. Cleveland Browns: Shedeur Sanders

• Draft slot: 144th overall (fifth round)    

Yes, Shedeur Sanders is technically listed behind Gabriel on the team's official depth chart. However, Sanders (14 for 23 passing for 138 yards and two touchdowns at the Carolina Panthers) has outplayed Gabriel (13 for 18 passing for 143 yards and an interception at the Philadelphia Eagles) thus far in the preseason. Perhaps that on-field production could outweigh Sanders being selected two rounds later. Sanders was set to receive reps with the first-team offense at the Browns' joint practice with the Eagles, per CBS Sports' Jeff Kerr, prior to suffering his oblique injury. He appears to have positive momentum with the coaching staff after his preseason-opening performance and will get another chance to make an impression in Saturday's preseason finale against the Rams. 

2. Seattle Seahawks: Jalen Milroe

• Draft slot: 92nd overall (third round)  

Jalen Milroe is the second-most likely candidate to start a game this season for a few reasons. He's the second-highest selected non-first-round pick quarterback in his draft class, and Seattle is clearly intrigued by his potential that comes with his elite physical traits: the Seahawks are starting Milroe and playing him for the entirety of their preseason finale against the Green Bay Packers. 

Another reason is new starting quarterback Sam Darnold's questionable fit with his new offensive line. He crumbled down the stretch of the Minnesota Vikings' 2024 season while struggling to deal with being pressured 49 times between the Week 18 finale against the Detroit Lions and the NFC wild card game against the Los Angeles Rams. Darnold's passer rating dropped a whopping 40 points down the stretch as opposing pass rushers got home to him. He took nine sacks in the playoff loss at the Rams, tied for the most ever in a single playoff game. 

* Pressured 49 times in last two games

On paper, that makes Darnold a bad match for a team whose offensive line allowed a 39.4% quarterback pressure rate, the third-highest in the entire NFL, in 2024. Yes, Seattle did draft North Dakota State FCS All-America guard Grey Zabel 18th overall in the 2025 NFL Draft, and he's looked good this preseason. However, there's still a chance Darnold could get hurt playing behind Seattle's offensive line, which would open the door for Milroe to take the reins.

1. New Orleans Saints: Tyler Shough

• Draft slot: 40th overall (second round)

Tyler Shough is obviously the most likely to start a game in the upcoming 2025 season given he's legitimately in a quarterback competition to be the New Orleans Saints' Week 1 starter against the Arizona Cardinals. He's been decent this preseason, but he did throw a rough pick six at the Los Angeles Chargers. Chargers rookie cornerback Eric Rogers stared Shough down and read him like a book to intercept his pass toward the right sideline. 

New Orleans went a combined 0-7 in games started by their non-Derek Carr quarterbacks in 2024 -- Spencer Rattler (0-6) and Jake Haener (0-1). Even if one of them beats out Shough for the job to begin the season, the second-round pick will eventually start a game.