Can Chargers, Broncos continue to ascend after breakthrough 2024 seasons?

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Welcome to "NFL Thoughts," a wide-ranging, in-depth look at some of the top storylines of the 2025 season. This week, we're taking a look at the two AFC teams that made the 2024 playoffs after undergoing major changes following postseason-less 2023 seasons: the Denver Broncos and the Los Angeles Chargers.

Entering last season, the Broncos owned the second-longest active playoff drought, having not qualified for the postseason since their Super Bowl-winning 2015 campaign, and couldn't get out of the Russell Wilson debacle fast enough. The Chargers were seemingly stuck in no man's land after a 5-12 campaign revealed major flaws in the roster and coaching staff.

Then, both AFC West teams turned it around, and perhaps most importantly, found an identity. The Broncos drafted Bo Nix, giving Sean Payton the hand-picked quarterback he wanted (and needed) to run his precise offense. Denver paired that with one of the NFL's best defenses, headlined by Defensive Player of the Year Patrick Surtain II and a vicious pass rush. The Chargers, under Jim Harbaugh, established a culture of toughness and discipline that hadn't existed under Brandon Staley, winning on the edges in a year that was expected to yield a rebuild, or at least a retool.

Still, they -- and the rest of the AFC -- are looking up at the Kansas City Chiefs. But it's particularly painful for Denver and Los Angeles, which play Kansas City twice and year and have seen Andy Reid's bunch win the division nine straight years.

Has either team done enough to end the Chiefs' reign and perhaps even push further into contention? We start in Denver.

Broncos 2025 season preview: Can defense be even better, offense more balanced?

We've already reviewed the outlook for second-year quarterbacks, Nix included. The gist is that improvements in the straight dropback game would go a long way.

Bo Nix Last Season	With Play Action	Without Play Action
EPA per dropback	0.11	0.00
Yards per attempt	7.1	6.5
Sack rate	1.8%	5.0%
Success rate	48.1%	43.5%
TD rate	8.4%	3.7%

On the other hand, Nix might be able to lean into play action more effectively if the Broncos can run the ball better. Last year, Denver running backs ranked 21st in rushing expected points added, 23rd in yards per rush and 19th in explosive rush rate.

Perhaps most frustrating, they ranked just 28th in yards per rush after contact despite ranking 10th in yards per rush before contact; running holes were open, but Denver's ball carriers typically didn't do a lot with them. Among the 52 players with at least 90 rushes, Javonte Williams ranked 49th in Next Gen Stats' average rush yards over expected, and Jahleel McLaughlin was 44th.

Enter J.K. Dobbins, who ranked 16th in that stat, and RJ Harvey, the second-round pick who averaged 6.8 yards per carry last season at UCF. If the running game can be just a little bit better, that can open up a world of possibilities for Payton, who remains among the NFL's elite play callers and designers.

The offensive line remains one of the very best in the business and returns all five starters, led by Quinn Meinerz. Denver's right guard was the second highest-graded guard in Pro Football Focus' marks last year and is a devastating run blocker. Luke Wattenberg graded out as the second-best pass blocking center in the NFL, and Garett Bolles continues his solid play at left tackle, also excelling in pass protection. Overall, Denver had the highest PFF pass blocking grade in the NFL, helping Nix face one of the lowest pressure rates in the league. Nix really struggled when pressured -- his expected points added per play was similar Gardner Minshew when pressured. Keeping things clean for Nix is paramount.

I'm intrigued by the Evan Engram addition. The 2023 Pro Bowler can run a variety of routes and be a safety valve or a more featured option. Tight ends were nearly non-existent in Denver's passing offense last year; Engram provides a versatile pass catcher at that spot, one Payton will surely look forward to using.

Nix's rookie year was good. It was not great. If he is once again good but not great, that should be good enough for Denver to return to the postseason, because this might be the best defense in the NFL.

Surtain is tremendous. Last year, he allowed just one touchdown as the primary defender while posting four interceptions. His 5.2 yards per attempt allowed was fifth-best among nearly 100 players who were the primary defender on at least 60 passes, and his 8.6 yards per completion allowed ranked ninth. He tackles extremely well. There's not a hole in his game.

The Broncos have cornerback talent around him, too. First-round pick Jahdae Barron figures to serve as Denver's slot cornerback, and Riley Moss was off to a strong start last year before an injury derailed things.

But where things could get really fun could be a pair of former San Francisco 49ers: Talanoa Hufanga and Dre Greenlaw, absolute thumpers who add some "oomph" to the back seven. Hufanga picked off four passes, had two sacks and made nearly 100 tackles as a first-team All-Pro in 2022, when he legitimately looked like a rising star. But injuries in each of the past two seasons -- including a torn ACL last year -- have stunted that trajectory. The Broncos blitzed at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL last year, and in Hufanga, defensive coordinator Vance Joseph gets yet another chess piece.

Greenlaw suffered a freak torn Achilles in the Super Bowl two seasons ago, but if he can be even 80% or 90% of the player he was pre-injury, that's a win. He'll play alongside Alex Singleton, who is coming off a torn ACL. This duo could be the difference between a good/great defense and the best in the league, especially given the front they'll play behind.

Out of 108 players who had at least 300 pass rush snaps, only 11 players had at least a 15% pressure rate last year. Denver was the only team with multiple players -- Nik Bonitto and John Franklin-Myers -- reaching that mark. Jonathon Cooper, at 14.1%, ranked 21st, and Zach Allen, at 12.7%, was 34th.

This is a truly fearsome pass rush unit, but it was also the second-best run-stuffing defense in the league. It's just a really, really good group.

Denver's 2025 ceiling still comes down to Nix. Is he an improved version of himself, one who can make more plays in adverse situations and be smarter with the ball? Or is he roughly similar to what he was last year? For a player who was generally considered a pleasant surprise as a rookie, Nix is still probably the third- or maybe even the fourth-best quarterback in his own division. Admittedly, it's a loaded division. But if Denver is to take that next step, Nix has to be significantly better than he was in Year 1. All the other pieces, on paper, are in place.

Chargers 2025 season preview: Can Omarion Hampton take running game to next level, defense show growth?

It wouldn't be fair to say the Chargers stumbled into 11 wins last season, but they beat exactly one team -- the Broncos, twice -- that went to the playoffs. Seven of the 11 wins came against the Raiders (twice), Panthers, Saints, Browns, Titans and Patriots, all teams that picked in the top nine of the NFL Draft this spring.

Lest you think I'm disparaging the Chargers, I'm not. You can only beat the teams you play, and the Chargers did a great job doing that. Beating the Broncos twice, the Bengals and the Falcons is nothing to sneeze at. This was a good team that made the playoffs in a year that seemed destined to be a transition season. Usually, they beat who they should have beaten and lost to who they should have lost to. They took care of business

They did that by holding onto the ball (lowest turnover per drive rate in the NFL) and bending but not breaking on defense (best red zone touchdown rate), which led to the best scoring defense in the league. The Chargers shortened games with a run-heavy approach and generally found ways to win. It wasn't always pretty, but given the roster construction, it proved effective: a very Jim Harbaugh-esque result

Los Angeles was pretty quiet in free agency but hopes the continued development of some youngsters leads to the next step.

We'll start on the offensive side, where Ladd McConkey was an absolute gem, finishing with the 10th-most receiving yards in the NFL. A route-running maven who plays outside and inside, McConkey brought plenty of big-play juice, too, winning all over the field. Watch this out and up route that not only features McConkey beating Mike Hilton, but snatching the ball over him, too.

But for as much of a vertical threat he was, he could also do this; his 12 catches on slants were tied for 10th-most in the NFL.

McConkey's presence was a big reason why Justin Herbert started opening things up a bit; 35.6% of his throws went 11+ yards downfield, by far a career high. Previously, Herbert had tried to play the position so perfectly that he didn't always take chances downfield. He started taking those chances in 2024, and it led to the highest yards per completion of his career. His 28 completions of 20+ air yards tied a career high and were nine more than he had in 2023.

The Chargers recently brought back Keenan Allen after selecting second-rounder Tre Harri and fifth-rounder KeAndre Lambert-Smith, both of whom are intriguing as a downfield guys. But the marquee addition was former North Carolina star Omarion Hampton in the first round. Offensive coordinator Greg Roman loves his physical running backs, after all, and Hampton could be the combination of physical and explosive that was sorely lacking last year.

Last year, the Chargers were 30th in rushing success rate, Dobbins was all-or-nothing -- eighth in explosive rush rate but 42nd in success rate -- and Gus Edwards was only slightly better success-wise but the least explosive runner among all players with at least 100 carries.

Enter Hampton, who weighs 221 pounds but has long speed to burn and is a remarkable athlete, quick and decisive as a runner and a capable pass catcher. The Chargers also brought in Najee Harris, and while he's far from the most exciting runner, he is an upgrade over last year's duo when it comes to yards after contact.

The Chargers have bookend tackles in Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt, but the interior line play will be extremely important. Offseason addition Mekhi Becton is a mauler who resurrected his career with the Philadelphia Eagles, a team whose offensive line pedigree is second-to-none. Can he carry that over in Los Angeles?

Flipping to the defensive side of the ball, the Los Angeles Rams signing Poona Ford was one of my favorite moves of the offseason, and the Chargers losing him was one of my least favorite losses. Ford was PFF's fifth-ranked interior defensive lineman last year and was particularly stout against the run.

However, that's not to say I'm completely out on this unit. Khalil Mack just keeps going as an effective pass rusher, and Tuli Tuipulotu nearly doubles his sacks from 4.5 as a rookie to 8.5 last year.

But it's really the guys behind that defensive line who stand out. Daiyan Henley is a rising star at linebacker, especially in coverage. Remember when I said Surtain ranked fifth in terms of yards allowed per attempt as the primary defender? Cam Hart was first, and that was as a fifth-round rookie! Tarheeb Still, the team's other fifth-round rookie corner last year, was in the top-10 in terms of passer rating allowed as the primary defender. That could be an outstanding duo, and with Derwin James behind them, this is a promising secondary.

I'm sold on Herbert, even if his playoff struggles are pronounced. He is a terrific talent willing to stand in and rip passes with the best of them. The Chargers still have areas for concern, though: the interior of both lines especially, as well as wide receiver. The optimistic view is Hampton is an immediate significant upgrade who covers the other offensive issues, and the defense continues to transcend. The pessimistic view is that there are still too many holes -- or simply too many young players who, while promising, aren't quite ready for big-time winning -- for a team not far removed from a major overhaul.. We'll land somewhere in the middle here: The Chargers should compete for a playoff spot again, but they're not ready to push for much beyond that.