2026 NFL Mock Draft: Three QBs taken in the top 5 and a No. 1 pick nobody saw coming
A twist atop the board and three fast-rising QBs define our latest mock draft
By
Josh Edwards
•
1 min read
There's a misconception floating around about the 2026 NFL Draft. Before this college season kicked off, Texas' Arch Manning, South Carolina's LaNorris Sellers and LSU's Garrett Nussmeier were widely viewed as the top eligible quarterback prospects. Those three haven't quite met the early expectations, which has some people jumping to the conclusion that this is a "weak" QB class.
In reality, the rise of Indiana's Fernando Mendoza (my QB1 back in May), Alabama's Ty Simpson and Oregon's Dante Moore has reshaped the board. All three still have remaining eligibility and could theoretically return to school in 2026, but in today's thought exercise, they come off the board quickly -- just not at No. 1 overall.
Four teams enter the first round with multiple picks, while just as many have none. The Browns and Rams dealt away theirs in separate draft-day moves a year ago, and the Jets and Cowboys moved on from Quinnen Williams and Micah Parsons, respectively.
To set the stage, here are the current odds to be the No. 1 overall pick (via FanDuel Sportsbook).
Odds to be No. 1 overall pick
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Ty Simpson (Alabama QB) | +185 |
| Fernando Mendoza (Indiana QB) | +230 |
| Dante Moore (Oregon QB) | +700 |
| Rueben Bain Jr. (Miami EDGE) | +750 |
| LaNorris Sellers (South Carolina QB) | +1000 |
| Arvell Reese (Ohio State EDGE) | +1000 |
Reminder: This is the current NFL draft order after Week 10 (via Tankathon).
Without further ado, let's kick this off!
NFL Mock Draft
Round 1
Round 1 - Pick 1
Trades are not being projected until the draft order is settled after the regular season. In a real-life scenario, Tennessee would be fielding offers for the No. 1 overall selection. However, they stay put here and add the best player in college football this season. Arvell Reese may play linebacker, but there is confidence in projecting him to a full-time edge rusher as well. At 6-foot-4, 243 pounds, he has the size to make that transition.
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Round 1 - Pick 2
Tyler Shough led New Orleans to a win over the weekend, so it's possible—though still unlikely—that the team plays itself out of the quarterback market. Still, unless the Saints are completely sold on Shough as their long-term answer, they're going to take a quarterback if they have the opportunity.
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Round 1 - Pick 3
Carnell Tate may not be the clear-cut WR1 in this class, but he's certainly made his case. His skill set complements Malik Nabers, who has been one of the league's best when healthy. And unlike several teams picking early, New York already has its quarterback of the future; giving him another weapon only helps his development.
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Round 1 - Pick 4
Cleveland would be choosing between Alabama's Ty Simpson and Moore in this scenario. It's also worth noting that all three quarterbacks mentioned so far still have remaining eligibility. If the Browns can finally land their quarterback of the future, years of frustration will be forgotten. Shedeur Sanders will start at some point this season, but the reality is he couldn't do enough to deter the franchise from drafting a quarterback.
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Round 1 - Pick 5
Ty Simpson has been arguably the most efficient passer in college football this season. He's not ideal in terms of height, but even a competent passing game would be a significant improvement over the Jets' current situation. New York also has a few young wideouts -- Garrett Wilson and Adonai Mitchell among them -- who would benefit greatly from Simpson's arrival.
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Round 1 - Pick 6
Las Vegas is a team in transition, whether or not it has the self-awareness to admit it. There are needs all over the roster, with the defense standing out as especially problematic. Peter Woods hasn't lived up to expectations this season, but Clemson as a whole has been disappointing. Once he gets to the NFL, Woods could still grow into the best version of himself.
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Round 1 - Pick 7
Miami is one of the more fascinating teams this year, with major decisions looming on both head coach Mike McDaniel and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. In this scenario, they're out of range for a quarterback and may be forced to stay the course unless an alternative emerges. Jermod McCoy has been M.I.A. this season due to injury, but last year he was viewed as a top-10 overall talent.
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Round 1 - Pick 8
Washington needs pass-rush help, and Rueben Bain fits the powerful profile Dan Quinn tends to favor. The Commanders did well to add veteran talent that could accelerate their timeline, but they got a bit too aggressive last offseason and over-leveraged their future. Now it's time to start replacing some of those veterans.
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Round 1 - Pick 9
Bad angles and poor tackling have defined Cincinnati's defense, especially in the secondary. Caleb Downs may be one of the best overall players in this class, but safeties rarely go in the top five -- which could allow him to fall right into the Bengals' lap.
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From
Atlanta Falcons
Round 1 - Pick 10
Los Angeles takes a player who would theoretically block the prospect Atlanta traded its first-round pick for (James Pearce Jr.) back in April. Francis Mauigoa is the first of two selections for the Rams in the opening round.
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Round 1 - Pick 11
Arizona will probably give head coach Jonathan Gannon at least one more year. However, a split from Kyler Murray feels like it's coming sooner rather than later. Whether it's Jacoby Brissett or another quarterback taking snaps for the Cardinals next season, the offensive line has to improve. Injuries -- and the loss of offensive line coach Klayton Adams -- have played a part, but the team simply hasn't invested enough in the trenches.
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Round 1 - Pick 12
Dallas has historically gravitated toward bigger, more powerful edge rushers like DeMarcus Lawrence and Dorance Armstrong. Keldric Faulk isn't a shifty, one-for-one replacement for Micah Parsons, but he can help boost a depleted pass rush.
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Round 1 - Pick 13
Baltimore finds a new running mate for Roquan Smith. The linebacker group hasn't been the same since Patrick Queen was paired with Smith, and they've been searching for that complement ever since. Sonny Styles gets overlooked on Ohio State's defense because of how well Arvell Reese has played this season, but he's been a major part of their success. His father played six NFL seasons with the Falcons and Rams, and he'll brings that same pedigree to the next level.
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Round 1 - Pick 14
Minnesota could move forward with Isaiah Rodgers and Mansoor Delane on the boundary, with Byron Murphy Jr. sliding back into the slot. There are several quality pieces on this Vikings roster, but injuries and suspensions have kept them from building any real momentum.
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Round 1 - Pick 15
Houston plugged Aireontae Ersery in at left tackle, but that hasn't been the answer in the post-Laremy Tunsil era. Caleb Lomu has surged as the season has progressed, and my summer claim that he could be OT1 is very much alive.
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Round 1 - Pick 16
Former second-round pick Trevin Wallace can produce the occasional splash play, but the down-to-down consistency just isn't there. CJ Allen, meanwhile, is the leader of a talented Georgia defense. The Panthers simply need to build some positive momentum by season's end, because it's been a rollercoaster to this point.
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Round 1 - Pick 17
Jaylen Watson and Joshua Williams are slated to hit free agency after the season. Watson likely returns, but the Chiefs haven't historically overvalued the position -- and a Trent McDuffie extension should be a priority. Aveion Terrell steps in to fill the potential void.
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Round 1 - Pick 18
San Francisco drafted two defensive tackles last year, but neither has shown they can be more than rotational pieces. Jamaree Caldwell and Derrick Harmon have both gone on to find success in the NFL, and now Washington may follow in their webbed footsteps.
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From
Jacksonville Jaguars
Round 1 - Pick 19
Jordyn Tyson will likely finish the pre-draft process as my WR1. If he were to fall, as he does in this scenario, a team would probably trade up for him — but the clubs picking ahead of Cleveland have bigger needs to address. The Browns end up landing a dream pairing with Oregon quarterback Dante Moore and Tyson, who happens to be the younger brother of Cavaliers guard Jaylon Tyson.
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Round 1 - Pick 20
Few teams were as aggressive in their pursuit of wide receiver help as Pittsburgh at the trade deadline. Although the Steelers came up short, they're able to quench their thirst for a complement to DK Metcalf with the selection of Makai Lemon. And if they're drafting this far back, they'll be out of range to trade up for one of the perceived top quarterback prospects anyway.
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From
Green Bay Packers
Round 1 - Pick 21
Has George Pickens played so well that he's priced himself out of Dallas? Or will this be another case of the Cowboys franchise-tagging a player only to pay him top of the market a year or two later? If Pickens ends up elsewhere next season, Denzel Boston is a worthy replacement. He's relatively young and brings the size and downfield playmaking ability that would complement CeeDee Lamb well.
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Round 1 - Pick 22
Ben Johnson took an offensive approach to his first draft, adding an offensive tackle, wide receiver and tight end. The organization had been linked to a running back in the first round last year, but ultimately went in another direction. Kyle Monangai's ascension may preclude Chicago from taking a running back early, but there's no question Love would be a dynamic addition.
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Round 1 - Pick 23
Buffalo has taken a committee approach to replacing Stefon Diggs' lost production. The hope is that Chris Bell eventually becomes Josh Allen's go-to outlet, and he certainly brings an element to the offense that Keon Coleman doesn't provide.
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Round 1 - Pick 24
Devin White was supposed to be the heir apparent to Lavonte David, but it's ended up looking more like Tom Brady outlasting every quarterback drafted to replace him in New England. Anthony Hill Jr. becomes the latest to take on the challenge of replacing a legend.
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Round 1 - Pick 25
Josh Paschal and Marcus Davenport just haven't been able to stay healthy. The situation is reminiscent of San Francisco, where the 49ers cycled through free agents for years before finally investing premium draft capital at the position. Matayo Uiagalelei can be Detroit's version of Mykel Williams.
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Round 1 - Pick 26
Three of Los Angeles' last five first-round picks have gone toward the offensive line, and the trend continues here. Ioane gives Jim Harbaugh another piece to fully commit to his vision of a physical, downhill rushing attack. With Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater presumably returning from injury, it will feel like the Chargers are installing three new starters up front next season.
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Round 1 - Pick 27
With the second of their two first-round picks, the Rams continue pushing their chips to the middle of the table in support of Matthew Stafford. They addressed right tackle with Atlanta's pick earlier, and now they add an ascending cornerback to bolster the secondary.
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Round 1 - Pick 28
New England has managed to piece together its pass rush with Harold Landry and K'Lavon Chaisson, but you'd expect Mike Vrabel to eventually seek a long-term solution. Cashius Howell has been one of the top performers in college football this season, posting 10.5 sacks and an 18.8% pressure rate, per TruMedia.
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Round 1 - Pick 29
Boye Mafe is a scheduled free agent, and it's entirely possible Seattle pays him to keep a good thing going in the Pacific Northwest. But as the franchise stares down some tough financial decisions, it has to weigh the opportunity cost of re-signing Riq Woolen and/or Mafe with extensions for Devon Witherspoon and others on the horizon. If Mafe moves on, David Bailey becomes a viable replacement.
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Round 1 - Pick 30
The NC State transfer has elevated his profile on one of the best teams in the country. KC Concepcion is primarily used in the short to intermediate areas and is averaging 7.5 yards after the catch per reception. Denver already has Courtland Sutton, so adding Concepcion brings a new dynamic to the offense.
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Round 1 - Pick 31
Philadelphia felt the need to add cornerback help at the trade deadline. With Jaire Alexander and Michael Carter both on expiring contracts, that issue could resurface next season as well. Malik Muhammad is more than a Band-Aid in a secondary that already features Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean.
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From
Indianapolis Colts
Round 1 - Pick 32
The Jets were already thin along the interior defensive line, and then they made the decision to part with All-Pro Quinnen Williams. The resources acquired in the Sauce Gardner and Williams deals give them a chance to rebuild the roster in their own vision, but the burden of replacing those players now falls squarely on leadership.
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