Fantasy Football Week 13 Lineup Decisions: Your guide to the toughest starts, sits and flexes

Fantasy Football is all about the matchups. Even though you drafted your team with certain hopes and intentions, your weekly lineup decisions shouldn't be determined by the order you picked your players in. You need to check who your players play and make sure you've got the right guys in -- and the wrong guys out.

We can take some educated guesses based on coaches film, meaningful data, healthy personnel, defensive schemes, track records, and key details of offenses. The things we know can help us minimize the impact of the things we don't know. This should lead to better decisions being made.

We'll go through every game and highlight the players who aren't obvious starts and sits (because you don't need to be told to sit Noah Fant). You should feel more comfortable starting or sitting players based on the information given, and feeling comfortable with your Fantasy lineup before the games start is the best feeling in the world.

All lines from Caesars Sportsbook.

re's a clear track record of the Lions playing a lot of man-to-man coverage against Jordan Love. They did it last season and again in Week 1 until the game was out of hand in the second half. Combine that with Detroit's aggressive pass rush, and it could complicate the Packers' pass game. On the year, Romeo Doubs has the highest target per route run rate among Love's receivers at a steep 28.6%, but it's not on a real deep average depth of target (10.6) and he has one good game in six career matchups against the Lions. Christian Watson's the better gamble -- his track record against the Lions is better (15-plus PPR in three games out of six) and his target rate is higher when Love is blitzed than when he isn't. It does help the Packers' case that the Lions defense played over 80 snaps on Sunday. 

Jameson Williams' lack of targets was a direct result of the Giants getting pressure on Jared Goff early last week and forcing the Lions to shorten Goff's time to throw average in the game while not adjusting Williams' routes very much. This has played out all season long with Williams, but even post-bye when Williams was dropping huge games on opponents. Post-bye, Williams has an 8% target per route run rate when Goff's pressured versus 17.8% when he's not. If we learned one thing from Week 1 it's that the Packers can and will get pressure on Goff, and they play a lot of zone coverage to not get beat deep, so I would be nervous about Williams having a big bounce-back game unless the Lions adjust his routes, which they didn't do much of last week. He's still so explosive, which is why he's on the flex radar. 

MUST STARTS: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown

STARTS: Josh Jacobs

FLEX: Jameson Williams, Christian Watson

SITS: Jared Goff (high-end No. 2 QB), Jordan Love, Romeo Doubs, David Montgomery, Dontayvion Wicks, Emanuel Wilson, Brock Wright, Luke Musgrave, Lions DST, Packers DST

Not that you'd expect the Chiefs to morph into a run-first offense, but the Cowboys run defense has been dominant over a very small sample size (19 total carries) since acquiring Quinnen Williams and refreshing its linebacker corps. Don't expect an efficient game from Kareem Hunt. However, we've seen almost exclusive zone coverage from the Cowboys since their bye, and we've seen them get past the 40% threshold for pass rush pressure in each game. Patrick Mahomes should expect to be in the familiar situation of having to get the ball out quickly against coverage meant to limit plays downfield. It's not a death sentence for his stats -- three of four games with that kind of defensive gameplan has led to at least 24 Fantasy points. Travis Kelce has been mostly good in those same matchups while Xavier Worthy didn't get even eight PPR points in any such matchup and his target per route run rate against zone coverage since Rashee Rice's return is just 15.8%, well behind Rice's 32% and Kelce's 19.3%.  

MUST-STARTS: Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, Rashee Rice, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens

STARTS: Javonte Williams, Travis Kelce, Jake Ferguson

FLEX: Kareem Hunt

SITS: Xavier Worthy, Marquise Brown, Isiah Pacheco, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Brashard Smith, Cowboys DST, Chiefs DST 

Drake Maye's 18-point outing against the Bengals last week is a good example of what happens when a quarterback has an off-day, even against a defense that's bled Fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Lamar Jackson has had an off-month, but I thought he threw the ball a lot better in the last three quarters last week against the Jets. Mark Andrews dropped a tipped pass that would have been a short touchdown and Jackson was a smidge too long on a fade to DeAndre Hopkins that would have been a second score. Zay Flowers got open regularly and was an easy target for Jackson to hit when he wasn't pressured. The Bengals pass rush is dead last in blitz rate, fourth-worst in pressure rate, and has the second-fewest sacks with 15 in 11 games. I can't help but think Jackson will be able to throw well and not be off-target like Maye randomly was early on last week. However, I also can't expect a big rushing day from Jackson, who didn't have quite the same rushing explosiveness last week or in the games before, plus there's always a chance Derrick Henry runs straight through the Bengals defense. Expectations of a monster stat game should be held in check, but this could be the game that sparks a nice run for Jackson and the Ravens offense, especially Flowers. 

Bengals note: When Tee Higgins was off the field last year and Joe Burrow had Mike Gesicki and Andrei Iosivas on the field, Burrow favored Gesicki with a huge 25.9% target per route run rate over Iosivas' 10.3%! Both Bengals caught two touchdowns, but Gesicki clearly had a bigger role and more production. I would expect that to be the case this week, even against an aggressive Ravens secondary that will undoubtedly be focused on Ja'Marr Chase.

MUST-STARTS: Ja'Marr Chase, Derrick Henry, Chase Brown

STARTS: Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow (low-end No. 1 QB), Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers (low-end No. 2 WR)

FLEX: Mike Gesicki (high-end No. 2 TE and PPR flex)

SITS: Andrei Iosivas, Mitchell Tinsley, Isaiah Likely, DeAndre Hopkins, Samaje Perine, Justice Hill, Keaton Mitchell, Ravens DST (high-end No. 2 DST; might want them next week), Bengals DST

The Eagles have delivered a pass rush pressure on at least 40% of their pass defense snaps in seven of their past eight games. The one area Caleb Williams has still struggled with, at least statistically, has been throwing when pressure's on him -- his completion rate has sagged to 38.8%, his yards per attempt is 4.9 despite a gaudy 11.6 ADOT, and he's thrown just two scores when pressured. The Bears offensive line has improved a lot as the season's gone on, which has helped Williams, but the combo of the Eagles feisty pass rush and quality secondary (yes, even after the Cowboys got the best of them last week) will make things harder for him. Williams has 21.9 or fewer Fantasy points (six points per pass TD) in all but two of his six road games this season, and one of the big games was at Cincy.

MUST-STARTS: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley

STARTS: Caleb Williams, DeVonta Smith, A.J. Brown, Rome Odunze, D'Andre Swift (low-end No. 2 RB), Eagles DST 

FLEX: DJ Moore (PPR), Kyle Monangai (non-PPR)

SITS: Dallas Goedert (high-end No. 2 TE), Colston Loveland (No. 2 TE), Luther Burden III, Jahan Dotson, Tank Bigsby, Bears DST 

MUST-STARTS: Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Kyren Williams

STARTS: Rico Dowdle, Tetairoa McMillan (low-end No. 2 WR), Rams DST 

SITS: Bryce Young, Xavier Legette, Colby Parkinson, Jalen Coker, Ja'Tavion Sanders, Chuba Hubbard, Terrance Ferguson, Blake Corum, Panthers DST

MUST-STARTS: Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle

STARTS: Quinshon Judkins, 49ers DST 

FLEX: Jauan Jennings 

SITS: Brock Purdy (high-end No. 2 QB), Shedeur Sanders, Ricky Pearsall (desperation WR), Harold Fannin Jr., Jerry Jeudy, Cedric Tillman, Isaiah Bond, Brian Robinson Jr., Dylan Sampson, Jerome Ford, Browns DST

One major reason why Josh Allen struggled last week was because the unrelenting Texans pass rush was in his kitchen. It did not help that both of his starting tackles were in and out of the game. Just because Daniel Jones' O-line is healthy doesn't mean he'll be fine, though -- when pressured in his past three games Jones has turned sort of into his old self (48.2% completion rate, three fumbles lost, one touchdown over 41 pressured dropbacks). What's concerning is that his four  interceptions have come when he has <i>not</i> been pressured, adding another layer of uncertainty to his outlook. Fantasy managers shouldn't be blamed for not trusting him in this matchup, nor should they be blamed for hesitating on every Colts wide receiver when only four wideouts have scored 13-plus PPR on Houston all season. Michael Pittman has posted one game with 13.6 PPT points and three others with under 10 PPR points in his past four against the Texans, obviously without Daniel Jones as his QB.

MUST STARTS: Jonathan Taylor, Nico Collins (No. 2 WR)

STARTS: Tyler Warren, Dalton Schultz (low-end No. 1 TE), Texans DST, Colts DST (low-end DST)

FLEX: Michael Pittman, Woody Marks, Alec Pierce

SITS: Daniel Jones, C.J. Stroud or Davis Mills, Jayden Higgins (low-end No. 3 WR), Josh Downs, Christian Kirk, Nick Chubb, Dare Ogunbowale

MUST-STARTS: De'Von Achane

STARTS: Chris Olave, Jaylen Waddle, Juwan Johnson, Darren Waller (if he plays)

SITS: Tua Tagovailoa (desperation QB), Tyler Shough, Taysom Hill (desperation flex or TE), Devin Neal (desperation RB), Malik Washington, Ollie Gordon, Dolphins DST (high-end No. 2 DST), Saints DST

MUST-STARTS: Bijan Robinson

STARTS: Breece Hall, Falcons DST

FLEX: John Metchie III, Tyler Allgeier (non-PPR)

SITS: Kirk Cousins, Tyrod Taylor, Darnell Mooney (desperation WR), Kyle Pitts, Adonai Mitchell, Mason Taylor, Isaiah Davis, Jets DST

MUST-STARTS: Trey McBride 

STARTS: Jacoby Brissett, Michael Wilson (low-end No. 1 PPR WR), Emeka Egbuka (No. 2 WR), Bucky Irving (low-end No. 2 RB in his first game back), 

FLEX: Bam Knight, Greg Dortch (low-end PPR flex)

SITS: Teddy Bridgewater, Cade Otton (high-end No. 2 TE), Tez Johnson, Chris Godwin, Rachaad White (desperation PPR RB), Michael Carter, Sean Tucker, Buccaneers DST, Cardinals DST

STARTS: Travis Etienne, Brenton Strange, Jaguars DST 

FLEX: Parker Washington, Jakobi Meyers, Chimere Dike (low-end PPR flex, better if special-teams yards count)

SITS: Trevor Lawrence, Cam Ward, Bhayhul Tuten, Chig Okonkwo (desperation PPR TE), Tyjae Spears (desperation PPR RB), Tony Pollard, Gunnar Helm, Titans DST

MUST-STARTS: Jaxon Smith-Njigba

STARTS: Kenneth Walker III, Justin Jefferson (No. 2 WR), Seahawks DST 

FLEX: Aaron Jones (high-end flex), Zach Charbonnet (non-PPR)

SITS: Sam Darnold (borderline No. 1/2 QB), Max Brosmer, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, A.J. Barner, Jordan Mason, Rashid Shaheed, Cooper Kupp, Vikings DST

You may buy into Justin Herbert in a home matchup against the Raiders because the Raiders have played like donks, especially offensively. But it's not like Herbert's had the chance to play great in his past two games because his offensive line has fallen apart and forced him into faster, shorter throws. Any slow-developing play like a screen or deep ball has been hampered by opposing pass rushes. Maybe the Chargers coaches have worked some magic with some big men, or perhaps they've got more plays designed to help Herbert have more than two seconds to throw. But the reality is that his O-line has been a problem without a solution in sight. And the only two quarterbacks to really throttle the Raiders this year have been Dak Prescott (Week 11) and Patrick Mahomes (Week 7); even Herbert had a solid-but-not-crazy 22.8 Fantasy points against the Raiders back in Week 2. That 22.8 mark might be all we can hope for this week.

MUST-STARTS: Ladd McConkey, Brock Bowers

STARTS: Justin Herbert (low-end No. 1/2 QB), Ashton Jeanty, Oronde Gadsden, Kimani Vidal (low-end No. 2 RB), Chargers DST (one week only)

SITS: Geno Smith, Quentin Johnston, Tre Tucker, Keenan Allen, Tyler Lockett, Raheem Mostert, Raiders DST

MUST STARTS: Josh Allen, James Cook

STARTS: Jaylen Warren, Khalil Shakir (low-end No. 2 PPR WR)

FLEX: Kenneth Gainwell, DK Metcalf (low-end flex)

SITS: Aaron Rodgers, Dawson Knox, Ty Johnson, Calvin Austin III, Pat Freiermuth, Roman Wilson, Ray Davis, Steelers DST, Bills DST

STARTS: Deebo Samuel, Troy Franklin, Broncos DST

FLEX: R.J. Harvey, Courtland Sutton, Chris Rodriguez (non-PPR)

SITS: Bo Nix, Marcus Mariota, Zach Ertz (desperation TE), Pat Bryant, Evan Engram, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Jaleel McLaughlin, Tyler Badie, Commanders DST

Injuries along the Patriots defensive line have made their run defense worse. In Weeks 1 through 9 they gave up an average of 3.1 yards per carry and an impressive explosive rush rate allowed of 1.3%, but in the past three weeks they've let up 4.9 yards per carry and an 8.9% explosive rush rate. Defensive lineman Milton Williams missed most of Week 11 and all of Week 12, Christian Barmore has made a little more of an impact as a pass rusher than run clogger, and linebacker Robert Spillane hasn't made quite as many stops against the run as he did earlier in the year. This should open the door to try attacking with their one-two punch of Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Devin Singletary. We've seen Tracy with an edge in playing time and overall touches in each of the past two weeks, especially in the passing game. Singletary seems best suited for short-yardage and goal-line chances. It's Tracy who Fantasy managers might see a surprising stat line from this week, and that would even be the case if the Giants trail in this game because Tracy is a little better suited for passing downs than Singletary.

MUST-STARTS: Drake Maye

STARTS: Jaxson Dart, Wan'Dale Robinson, TreVeyon Henderson (No. 2 RB), Tyrone Tracy (low-end No. 2/3 RB), Patriots DST

FLEX: Stefon Diggs, Kayshon Boutte (low-end flex)

SITS: Hunter Henry (high-end No. 2 TE), Theo Johnson (desperation TE), Devin Singletary (desperation RB), Darius Slayton, Isaiah Hodgins, Mack Hollins, DeMario Douglas, Giants DST