Week 7 presents another round of difficult decisions for Fantasy managers, with four teams on bye, injuries reshaping depth charts and several big-name players facing matchups that could limit their production. As we approach the halfway point of the Fantasy regular season, every lineup decision becomes increasingly important.
Braelon Allen is among the players worth trusting this week, with Breece Hall's injury opening the door for another strong performance against a vulnerable Dolphins run defense. Meanwhile, Woody Marks could benefit from an expanded workload in Houston, and Bryce Young continues to make a compelling case as a reliable Fantasy starter.
On the other side, Patrick Mahomes faces a difficult matchup against Seattle, while Michael Wilson and Jameson Williams carry concerns despite their opportunities in their respective offenses. Even familiar names aren't automatic starts when defensive schemes, playing time and offensive tendencies work against them.
That's where Dave Richard's Week 7 matchup breakdown comes in. From defensive coverages and pass-rush pressure to backfield workloads and target distribution, we'll examine the factors that matter most to help you identify trustworthy starters, avoid potential disappointments and make the best possible lineup decisions.
Dave Richard's Week 7 rankings: Top 150 | QB | RB | WR | TE | K | DST
Caleb Williams had two 2-yard runs, had a season low 3.23-second time to throw rate and a season low with Ben Johnson, 3.9-yard average depth of throw against the Falcons last week. That tells me he's still not 100% recovered from his hamstring injury, but it didn't quite turn him into a game manager. Five of his six biggest gains involved him holding the ball for at least three seconds, be it because he moved out of the pocket or not, and that doesn't include his 14-yard touchdown to Colston Loveland, where he escaped pressure and did the whole hold-and-throw-cross-body thing that he seems to live and die by. Williams is dangerous if he's mobile, but his Fantasy upside is lowered if he won't run downfield. The Patriots pass rush has been inconsistent all year but they tend to rack up sacks against statue QBs. Even with a couple of question marks along his O-line, Williams should be able to overcome their pressure and hit targets downfield. Last week, he completed all 26 of his throws for 255 yards when he wasn't pressured. That's bad news for the Patriots and good news for Williams.
Luther Burden III had a great stat line last week -- 8-95-0 on eight targets -- but he didn't start, and he played just 39% of the snaps and ran a route on just 44% of Williams' dropbacks, both season lows. This happened because the Bears played with two or more tight ends on 67% of their plays, their second-highest mark of the season. Burden played just five snaps with Colston Loveland and Cole Kmet -- and had his biggest play of the day on one of them! Chicago has leaned into multiple tight end sets in three of their past five games, be it because of weather (Week 2), game script (Week 4), or to give its QB added pass protection (last week). Only the Raiders have felt the need to use a lot of multiple-tight-end formations against the Patriots this season. Because New England ranks 13th in pass-rush pressure rate and 16th in sack rate, the Bears may be more willing to attack downfield with receivers than stack big bodies. That's good news for Burden to keep his target volume flowing, especially since outside receiver Rome Odunze could have his hands full with Pats shutdown cornerback Christian Gonzalez.
Bears offensive coordinator Press Taylor claimed this week that the Bears "weren't forcing it to (Colston Loveland) or anything like that." Taylor simply said, "The ball found him a couple times," meaning Loveland did what was needed to get open against the Falcons. He also had at least two designed targets, which helps. The Bears have seen man-to-man coverage on just 27 snaps all season, and Williams has yet to even target Loveland in man coverage this year, throwing at him at a 17.5% rate with poor efficiency versus man in 2025. The Patriots have played the second-most man-to-man coverage since Week 2 and third-most on the year, and they especially lean into it on third and short or third and medium downs. The only tight end to get more than 7.5 PPR points against the Pats this year was Brock Bowers. It's a concern when it comes to fully trusting Loveland this week, but you'd have to have some really good alternatives to pull him from lineups.
- MUST-START: D'Andre Swift
- START: Drake Maye, Caleb Williams, Rhamondre Stevenson, A.J. Brown, Colston Loveland, Hunter Henry (borderline start)
- FLEX: Luther Burden III, Demario Douglas (PPR flex)
- SIT: Rome Odunze, Roschon Johnson (bye-week RB), Kalif Raymond, TreVeyon Henderson, Eli Raridon, Corey Kiner, Bears DST, Patriots DST
Aaron Rodgers has leaned into getting the ball out fast and throwing it short over his past two games, resulting in an average depth of target of 4.2 (it was 9.3 through the first four weeks) and a time to throw of 2.46 seconds (it was 2.85 seconds). This was foreseeable last week when he faced the blitz-heavy Bucs, but not in Week 5 against a muted Colts pass rush, nor should it be this way versus New Orleans. That's because the Saints haven't been a blitz-heavy team; they're bottom 10 in blitz pressure rate, bottom five in overall pass rush pressure rate and second-worst in non-blitz pressure rate. If anything, Rodgers should have a little more time to drop back. If he does, DK Metcalf would see the majority of long-distance targets; if/when he doesn't, then Germie Bernard's short-area target parade will continue. It helps Bernard in particular that the Saints play so much zone; he's seen a 24.6% target-per-route-run rate and has a 2.34 yards per route run versus zone since Week 5.
I couldn't have been more wrong on Tyler Shough last week, but the Giants defensive gaffes were a big factor. Even though they blitzed like crazy, as expected, the G-Men couldn't tackle or get enough pressure on Shough, and as a result, he found some incredible numbers. The Steelers are a better unit, but not by much. They employ fairly heavy zone coverage each week with a single-high safety lean, but they blitz less than 30% of the time and are bottom-10 in pass rush pressure rate with a modest 7.4% sack rate (boosted by corralling Jalon Daniels five times last week). Those factors might help Shough piece together a solid game, but it'll take an assist from the Steelers missing tackles or drawing penalties for him to post big stats. Shough and the Saints are also expected to be without guard Cesar Ruiz, a great pass blocker. That loss will be felt up front against the Steelers' big boys, and it might mean the Saints ask Juwan Johnson and their other tight ends to chip block a little more. Devaughn Vele has seen a target per route run rate of at least 21% in four of his past five games when facing single-high safety coverage, giving him a chance to bounce back after two stinkers.
- MUST-START: Chris Olave
- START: Aaron Rodgers, Jaylen Warren, Germie Bernard & DK Metcalf (low-end No. 2 WRs - Metcalf higher in half and non-PPR), Steelers DST (low-end start)
- FLEX: Devaughn Vele (PPR flex)
- SIT: Tyler Shough (high-end No. 2 QB), Juwan Johnson (bye-week TE), Kendre Miller & Alvin Kamara (bye-week RBs), Pat Freiermuth, Bryce Lance, Rico Dowdle, Darnell Washington, Saints DST
Kyle Pitts looks a little more like a tight end and a little less like an explosive athlete these days, but there's plenty of evidence suggesting his role in the Falcons offense is reliable. Since Week 3, his average depth of target has come way down, making him a short-area winner for Michael Penix Jr. In fact, Pitts has had one target longer than 10 air yards in his last three games, so his role is resembling what tight ends in Cleveland did under Kevin Stefanski. That's OK as long as Pitts keeps getting targets -- he's had at least six in each of his past two, including five in the red zone. Only two tight ends this season have seen at least six targets against the 49ers, and both had at least 13.9 PPR points -- both without scoring -- a duo that includes Chig Okonkwo on Monday. I'd be encouraged to try Pitts as a back-end No. 1 TE.
- MUST-START: Bijan Robinson, Christian McCaffrey, Drake London, George Kittle
- START: Brock Purdy, Kyle Pitts, 49ers DST (borderline start)
- SIT: Michael Penix Jr., Jahan Dotson, Christian Kirk, Brian Robinson Jr., Brandin Cooks, Jordan Watkins, Kaelon Black, Falcons DST
Offensive coordinator Dan Pitcher told the media that the Bengals will scheme up their run game based on what they think will work best against their upcoming opponent. Usually, that's how backfields without a one-star rusher operate, which suggests the Bengals are open to using more Samaje Perine, as they did on shotgun runs at Miami in Week 5. He's not as explosive as Chase Brown, but he is more powerful and could be the back the Bengals lean on to beat up light boxes and/or close out games. Brown remains the better option in the passing game, so it's not like his snaps are going to dry up, but I'd be at least a little nervous about their carries being close to equal when they're not chasing points. The Ravens run defense has been awesome in their past four games against gap-scheme runs (2.5 yards per rush, zero runs of 10-plus yards allowed), and they've also crushed against shotgun runs. If the Bengals take notice, then it means they'll try more zone-scheme stuff and maybe gravitate back toward some under-center carries, two aspects that favor Brown's explosiveness. I would cautiously start Brown as a No. 2 running back, but any runner with the expectation of, say, 18-plus touches and goal-line work should start ahead of him, including Braelon Allen for this week.
- MUST-START: Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers
- START: Tee Higgins, Chase Brown, Bengals DST (assuming Tyler Huntley starts)
- SIT: Tyler Huntley (Lamar Jackson is a must-start if he plays), Samaje Perine (bye-week RB), Mark Andrews (bye-week PPR TE), Ja'Kobi Lane, Mike Gesicki, Justice Hill, Josh Cuevas, Ravens DST,
Sounds like a decent amount of people are still on the fence on Bryce Young. All he's done this season is score at least 23.8 Fantasy points (six-point pass TDs) in all but one game. Touchdowns have boosted him (11 passing in five games), but he's still well in the top half of the league in EPA per dropback, yards per attempt and notably, fourth in pass attempts per game at 40.2. He hasn't played a game this year with fewer than 36 pass attempts. Volume figures to remain prominent against a Bucs defense that brings heavy blitzes and finally got some much-needed production last week against the Steelers; defensive end David Walker has been finding a lot of pressures for several weeks and finally got home. Young has been pretty dang good when blitzed this year compared to other QBs, and really might only struggle if his O-line lets him down. I wouldn't freak out about that because Carolina's offensive line is in the best shape it has been in all season with Taylor Moton back, giving up just a 33.3% pass rush pressure rate. Young should be solid, and don't be surprised if this is a Jalen Coker week again since Young seems to favor him against single-high coverage, which the Bucs play a lot of.
- MUST-START: Chuba Hubbard
- START: Bryce Young, Jalen Coker, Tetairoa McMillan, Bucky Irving, Panthers DST (one-week DST)
- FLEX: Emeka Egbuka
- SIT: Baker Mayfield, Tommy Tremble (bye-week TE), Chris Godwin (bye-week PPR WR), Ted Hurst, Cade Otton, Darren Waller, Buccaneers DST
The difference between J.J. McCarthy and Jameis Winston is that McCarthy is more mobile and throws with more velocity. Both make questionable decisions with the ball, both have struggled to read coverages, and both have a history of leaning on their best receivers. That last part is important if you have Malik Nabers and Isaiah Likely in Fantasy -- those guys are must-starts, especially since the Texans pass defense hasn't quite been as good as anticipated. But McCarthy's history shouldn't be ignored -- this is the QB who ranked last or second-to-last among qualifying QBs in 2025 in completion rate, interception rate, off-target rate, middle-field pass rate, success rate, EPA per dropback and QB rating. He also posted a career-worst efficiency rating for Justin Jefferson a year ago. And while he did some nice things last week, he got really lucky on at least two throws that should have been intercepted. McCarthy's track record also suggests he doesn't throw to his running backs (16% rate last year, 5.9% this year). There is a chance things go backward for the Giants passing game with McCarthy, but that same chance existed with Winston.
With David Montgomery still sidelined and Jawhar Jordan on injured reserve, Marks will feasibly split reps with only Dare Ogunbowale and maybe Deuce Vaughn, two players known specifically for being passing-down types. It should put Marks in contention for 20-plus touches against a Giants defense that's now bottom five in yards per rush and explosive rush rate allowed. And it's the same Giants defense that missed two tackles on Alvin Kamara's longest play from scrimmage since 2024 in Week 6. Marks has at least 15 carries and two receptions in each of his past two games.
- MUST-START: Malik Nabers, Nico Collins, Isaiah Likely
- START: C.J. Stroud, Woody Marks, Texans DST
- FLEX: Jaylin Noel (low-end flex)
- SIT: J.J. McCarthy, Tyrone Tracy Jr. (bye-week RB), Marvin Harrison Jr., Dalton Schultz, Cam Skattebo, Tank Dell, Malachi Fields, Devin Singletary, Giants DST
Kyler Murray's EPA per dropback, completion rate and yard per attempt average have gone up in each of his past three games. The matchup against a Colts defense that ranks third-lowest in pass rush pressure rate doesn't feel like a problem; Murray's best numbers naturally come when he's not pressured. And if he isn't hassled much, then he'll have time to attack downfield to his receivers. T.J. Hockenson has been a regular target whether Murray is pressured or not -- he actually leads the Vikings in target per route run rate when Murray plays. Indy allowed monster games to Travis Kelce and Pat Freiermuth, and 8.9 PPR points to Mark Andrews. That should be a safe floor for Hockenson, and Murray has potential to get close to 20 Fantasy points in what should be a favorable home game.
- MUST-START: Justin Jefferson, Jonathan Taylor
- START: T.J. Hockenson (low-end start), Jordan Mason (borderline No. 2 RB), Vikings DST
- FLEX: Keenan Allen, Aaron Jones (non-PPR flex)
- SIT: Kyler Murray (bye-week QB), Daniel Jones, Jordan Addison (bye-week WR), Josh Downs, Colts DST
Omar Cooper Jr. has officially played 53 snaps of football. In those snaps, he's run 29 routes, seen eight targets, caught seven of them and turned them into 133 yards and a touchdown. For the equivalent of roughly one full game, that's pretty incredible -- and it doesn't include a 14-yard touchdown he had last week called back by a Jets penalty! Cooper has good speed, uses mature tempo in his routes, has good vision and toughness after the catch, and he'll never see top-tier coverage as long as Garrett Wilson lines up across from him. The stats say Miami's pass defense against receivers is really good, but that's because they've seen receivers get just 13.4 targets per game this year. They've allowed a catch on 73% on those targets (second-highest), and they're about league average in yards after catch per reception allowed (4.1 yards). If the Dolphins offense can't move the chains, then the Jets won't need to throw, sort of like how every opponent against the Dolphins hasn't needed to throw. That would cap Cooper's upside, but winless teams have a way of fighting harder just to get off the schneid, and the Dolphins probably view this matchup as one they can win. So if it's a competitive game, Cooper could see the same kind of target intake he had last week.
- START: Braelon Allen, Garrett Wilson, Ollie Gordon
- FLEX: Omar Cooper Jr.
- SIT: Geno Smith, Malik Willis, Malik Washington (bye-week PPR WR), Caleb Douglas, Kenyon Sadiq, Mason Taylor, Chris Bell, Greg Dulcich
The Titans have generally been true to Robert Saleh's principles of playing heavy zone coverage, often with one single-high safety, and blitzing a minimal amount. I suspect they'll stick with that against the Browns and quarterback Deshaun Watson, who has faded a bit over the past couple of weeks. In the past year, the Titans have struggled against wide receivers. Still, they've made some positive strides in coverage in their past two games, allowing just four total completions of 20-plus yards (yeah, that's actually an improvement) and one touchdown (a big improvement). It's definitely not a matchup to fear, but Watson's tendency to lean on his running backs against zone coverage is real. Quinshon Judkins has earned a target on 37% of his routes against that defensive scheme for slightly more yards per route, 2.14, than Denzel Boston, 2.11. Boston's been among the Browns' top man-to-man coverage beaters, and his chances to do that are slim based on how the Titans tend to play on first and second downs. KC Concepcion and Jerry Jeudy have been earning larger roles in the offense, too. I'd still flex Boston, but Judkins is who I'd be fairly excited about as a volume-based Fantasy play.
- START: Carnell Tate, Quinshon Judkins, Tony Pollard, Browns DST
- FLEX: Denzel Boston
- SIT: Deshaun Watson, Cam Ward, Harold Fannin Jr. (bye-week TE), Wan'Dale Robinson (bye-week PPR WR), KC Concepcion, Jerry Jeudy, Tyjae Spears, Calvin Ridley, Titans DST
The Lions and Rams put the screws to Michael Wilson in each of his past two games without Marvin Harrison Jr. on the roster. Over his past 14 targets in those games, Wilson didn't have a catch longer than 17 yards, had four designed short screens, had a deep ball bounce off his arm for a would-be touchdown and couldn't keep his feet in on a great corner route. More significantly, only two of his catches and four of his 14 targets came on third downs, and a look at third-down targets for other primary Cardinals pass-catchers in those games saw Wilson doubled or drawing a safety over the top of him on more than half of those plays. He's being treated like a No. 1 receiver, and it would be fairly shocking if the zone-leaning Broncos did the same thing. And if Pat Surtain plays, you can expect him to shadow Wilson when he lines up out wide. It makes for a tough spot for Wilson, and if the game is competitive and the Cardinals don't have to throw 40-plus times, then his opportunities won't be any better than where they've been the past two weeks.
- MUST-START: Trey McBride
- START: J.K. Dobbins, Broncos DST
- FLEX: Michael Wilson, Jaylen Waddle
- SIT: Jacoby Brissett, Bo Nix, Kendrick Bourne (bye-week PPR WR), R.J. Harvey (bye-week RB), Tyler Allgeier, Zonovan Knight, Courtland Sutton, Evan Engram, Cardinals DST
Matt LaFleur began the week by admitting Josh Jacobs would give the Packers run game a spark, but didn't commit to him coming back to his regular role until the team gets an idea of how he's feeling after three days of practice. It's the responsible thing to do, but given how the Packers literally rank dead-last in yards per rush, first-down yards per rush, rush EPA, rush yards after contact per attempt and runs of zero/negative yards, it's probably a safe bet that Jacobs will see at least a slim majority of the running back touches in Week 7. It's just a guess, but it might make sense for the Packers to mix in Pierre Strong with Jacobs; Strong has been playing many of the passing downs over the past couple of weeks and could keep that role. The good news is that the fresh-legged Jacobs would be a part of what's expected to be the highest-scoring game of the week, and even if the Lions are coming off a bye, they're still below league average in yards per rush allowed to opposing RBs and last in explosive runs allowed. I'd take a chance on Jacobs as a solid No. 2 RB.
The Packers pass rush had good games against the Bucs (they blitzed way more than normal) and the Bears (versus backup QBs). They'll need to take some consideration when blitzing Jared Goff, and it's not like they're among the dominant pass rushes when they're against a capable passer. The usual move for the Packers is to play heavy zone coverage with a lean toward two-high safeties. This look seems to deter Goff from throwing to Jameson Williams, as all three of his other primary pass-catchers (Jahmyr Gibbs included) have higher target per route rates against both zone and zone with two safeties. Furthermore, the Packers see more targets per game to wide receivers than all but four teams, but they rank top three in defensive pass EPA and yards per attempt allowed, and those numbers don't fall too much on pass attempts of 15-plus air yards. Williams remains in that familiar spot as a boom/bust No. 3 receiver.
- MUST-START: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Christian Watson, Matthew Golden
- START: Jordan Love, Jared Goff, Sam LaPorta, Josh Jacobs, Tucker Kraft
- FLEX: Jameson Williams
- SIT: Pierre Strong, Isaac TeSlaa, Packers DST, Lions DST
The Cardinals turned Matthew Stafford into a check-down artist on the 15 dropbacks they blitzed him last week. Stafford averaged 2.4 air yards on those blitzed pass attempts compared to a still-low-for-him 6.5 air yards when he wasn't blitzed. Six of those 14 targets went to tight ends (four to Colby Parkinson), and just two to Puka Nacua. The Raiders blitz less, pressure more, have one more sack than the Cardinals do and have one more Maxx Crosby than anyone else has. L.A. has seen its fair share of good pass rushers this year, but the only team that really affected them other than the Cardinals was the Broncos, and they put a ton of pressure on Stafford, whether they blitzed or not. The Raiders aren't quite as good as the Broncos are, and I don't expect the Rams to use their tight ends to block a ton, though that will be part of Colby Parkinson's role since he has 24 more pass pro snaps than Tyler Higbee has this season -- but also gets short targets after he chips a defender. Parkinson even has three red-zone targets when Adams is off the field compared to zero for Higbee. I wouldn't advocate for any single Rams tight end, but I can share that Higbee and Davis Allen are the two who run downfield routes at a much higher clip than Parkinson. The Raiders rank in the bottom three in completion rate (80.3%) and receiving touchdowns (six) allowed to tight ends, so chancing it on one of Parkinson or Higbee (in that order) as a bye-week TE makes some sense.MUST-START: Josh Allen, Brock Bowers, James Cook
- MUST-START: Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams, Brock Bowers
- START: Matthew Stafford, Kirk Cousins, Ashton Jeanty, Michael Mayer (low-end PPR start)
- FLEX: Tre Tucker
- SIT: Colby Parkinson (bye-week TE), Tyler Higbee, Blake Corum, Mike Washington Jr., Cody White, Rams DST, Raiders DST
No one plays zone-heavy coverage more often than the Seahawks (90.7% of their snaps this season), and no one plays as much Cover-6 zone-heavy defense as the Seahawks (30.8% of their snaps). It would be uncharacteristic of coach Mike Macdonald to suddenly change things up and play more man-to-man coverage when his scheme has worked wonders for years, so get ready to watch Patrick Mahomes throw a bunch of short passes like he did last week. In fact, Mahomes' longest throw of Week 6 went 17 air yards. He didn't need to throw much given how well Kenneth Walker III ran, and while we're certain Walker will get a lot of opportunities to run against his former team, it's notable that Seattle is top-three in yards per rush allowed and defensive total rush EPA, and top-five in yards after contact per rush and missed tackles on rushes. We already know that Walker, Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy see good target per route rates against zone coverage, with Kelce especially efficient with 2.25 yards per route run. All of their numbers and receiving per-route averages rise off of play-action, which is exactly what to expect from Mahomes a good amount of the time. I'd be nervous about Mahomes pouring on the points, and Kelce will need volume since the Seahawks have done a nice job limiting tight ends this year (just two TDs allowed, both inside the 2-yard line). Worthy is in the flex chat not only because his target and yardage per-route rates are significantly higher whenever Rashee Rice isn't on the field, but especially because he saw close to a 25% target per route rate and just over 2.5 yards per route run last week.
- MUST-START: Kenneth Walker III, Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- START: Travis Kelce, Seahawks DST, Chiefs DST
- FLEX: Xavier Worthy
- SIT: Patrick Mahomes (high-end No. 2 QB), Sam Darnold, Zach Charbonnet (bye-week RB), Emanuel Wilson, Cooper Kupp, AJ Barner, Cyrus Allen, Rashid Shaheed
Tanner McKee had a few good moments last week, but pass rush pressure and a lack of placement on most of his throws 10-plus air yards downfield (29% completion rate) impacted him. The sad part? Carolina's four-man pass rush pressure rate was just 18.5%, but they got near him just over half of his blitzed dropbacks. The Cowboys have blitzed at a bottom-10 rate, getting even a 30% blitz rate once this year (Week 1). They had better luck pressuring Jordan Love last week than Jalon Daniels the week before, so maybe there's a little improvement there. They should feel compelled to blitz McKee more frequently in hopes of him making more mistakes, but based on their track record, they might be more selective with the timing of their blitzes than the Panthers were last week. The Cowboys have allowed a slew of big plays this year already, and McKee figures to be at least a little bit better with another week of practice under his belt, so it's probably worth chancing DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert and potentially Darius Cooper as options this week.
- MUST-START: CeeDee Lamb, Javonte Williams
- START: Dak Prescott (low-end start), George Pickens, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Dameon Pierce (volume-based low-end No. 2 RB)
- SIT: Tanner McKee, Ryan Flournoy & Darius Cooper (bye-week PPR WRs), Jake Ferguson (bye-week TE), Makai Lemon, Eagles DST, Cowboys DST
