Fantasy Baseball Trade Deadline Preview: Five ideal trades, prospects to stash for the deadline, and more
Plus, why Josh Naylor's Fantasy outlook takes a hit following trade to Seattle
By
Chris Towers
•
13 min read
The first big trade of the deadline season – if we're not counting Rafael Devers back in June, that is – finally went down Thursday night, as the Mariners acquired first baseman Josh Naylor from the Diamondbacks in a deal for a couple of pitching prospects.
Naylor is putting together another strong season, hitting .292 with an .807 OPS, and he gives the Mariners a big upgrade at the first base position, where they've received just a .711 OPS for the season. The problem for Naylor, at least from a Fantasy perspective, is that he's getting a significant park downgrade.
Per Statcast's Park Factors, T-Mobile Park is the worst-hitting park in the majors by a significant margin. It's not just that it's a big park in a relatively chilly, humid environment that suppresses offense, though that doesn't help, obviously. No, the biggest problem with T-Mobile Park is the way it inflates strikeouts, as hitters just seem to struggle to see the ball well there. That's especially concerning for Naylor, who derives so much of his value as a hitter from his ability to make a lot of contact without sacrificing power.
Can he keep that up in Seattle? Well, it's certainly not impossible – Randy Arozarena has actually been significantly better since his deadline move to the Mariners last season than he had been the previous two in Tampa, even without adjusting for the tougher offensive environment. Of course, Arozarena was moving from a tough park with similar factors in Tampa, whereas Naylor is leaving Chase Field, which is on the opposite side of the spectrum when it comes to strikeout park effects.
It's a risky move for Naylor's Fantasy value, even if it's an obvious one for Seattle. I think you can downgrade Naylor a bit in the aftermath of this trade, but not enough that you can't still treat him like a starting-caliber first baseman. He might take a step back, but Naylor's skill set as a hitter should be strong enough to overcome it.
In return for Naylor, the Diamondbacks received Brandyn Garcia, an interesting young left-handed reliever who probably settles in as a middle reliever, plus Ashton Izzi, a 21-year-old pitcher who has a 5.51 ERA in High-A after a strong season in the California League last season. Which is to say, there isn't much to see here for our purposes!
Naylor is just the first domino to fall, and hopefully over the next six days, he'll be followed by plenty of other big moves – including, in all likelihood, his former teammate Eugenio Suarez. The deadline for trades looms at 6 pm ET next Thursday, and we should see plenty of other big names following Naylor. With only five games on the MLB schedule last night, I figured this was a good time to take a look ahead at the deadline, so that's just what we're doing in today's Fantasy Baseball Today Newsletter. First up, we've got five trades we'd like to see from a Fantasy perspective, plus some top prospects who could be thrust into bigger roles in the next week, and then five bullpen situations to keep a close eye on at the deadline.
Let's get to it:
2025 Trade Deadline Preview
Five trades we'd like to see
Eugenio Suarez to the Yankees
If there was any chance the Diamondbacks wouldn't be sellers at the deadline, that went out the window with the Naylor trade. So, what's one more infielder out of the way? There's an awful lot of smoke on Suarez-to-the-Yankees right now, and that would be a natural landing spot. It's not a great park for right-handed hitters, but it's not a terrible one, either, and it does boost right-handed power in a way Chase Field doesn't (despite being a better park overall). The Yankees have a huge need at third base, and Suarez would be a pretty great addition to the top half of the lineup, likely batting behind Cody Bellinger and Aaron Judge. The power would play in Yankee Stadium, he would lengthen a top-heavy lineup, and he would remain a huge RBI threat. This one feels obvious.
It would also be the natural move to give Jordan Lawlard a path to everyday playing time. Lawlar started playing third base in the minors this season and would likely be an everyday player – once he gets past the hamstring injury that has kept him on the Triple-A IL since late June. Lawlard has hit .319/.410/.583 at Triple-A this season, and while he hasn't done much in his limited chances in the majors, he also hasn't had a real everyday chance yet. Once the 23-year-old has a clear path, I expect to see him back in the majors for his first real test. And there is significant five-category upside here.
Emmanuel Clase to the Phillies
The Phillies don't have a bad bullpen, but they also haven't really been able to settle on one closer since Jose Alvarado's suspension. Alvarado will be back in mid-August, but he isn't eligible for the postseason after his PED suspension, so unless the team thinks David Robertson can step into that role, a trade for a closer here makes sense. And there isn't a better option than Clase – well, maybe Mason Miller or Josh Hader, but neither is likely to be on the move. Clase could be.
And we're highlighting him not just because of what Clase would mean for the Phillies bullpen. It's also because the Guardians have arguably the best setup man in baseball ready to step up if and when they move Clase. Smith has the lowest FIP in baseball since debuting last season, sitting at 1.64, and his elite strikeout rates and ability to limit hard contact would immediately put him into the top-five closer discussion if the Guardians treat him like they have Clase, who routinely ranks among the league leaders in save chances. With how iffy the Phillies closer situation is for Fantasy, we could double the number of fantasy-relevant closers across these two teams with one fell swoop here.
Jarren Duran to the Pirates
Would the Red Sox move Duran for Mitch Keller? It feels like a decent fit, especially because Duran is already in both his late-20s and his arbitration years, so he probably doesn't have as much trade value as you might think. Pittsburgh rates out as a surprisingly solid park for left-handed hitters (ninth in Statcast park factors) despite being a tough place to hit for power. And he would certainly play every day in Pittsburgh, something that is less assured in Boston's crowded outfield. The Pirates desperately need offense, and Duran might immediately be the team's best hitter and likely full-time leadoff option. Believe it or not, this would probably be a better situation for his Fantasy value than Boston at this point.
Nolan Arenado to the Reds
Would the Reds actually do this? They don't have great playoff odds, sitting at 10.9% per FanGraphs.com, but at some point, they've got to make a push. And it wouldn't just be a one-year rental, as Arenado is under contract for 2026 and 2027 at reasonable numbers. It also likely wouldn't cost much in prospects, because the Cardinals just want Arenado out of the way. Would he agree to waive his no-trade clause to go to Cincinnati, of all places? That's the toughest question to answer. It's not a glamorous market, but it's probably the best park in baseball for Arenado's pull-heavy, power-light swing, so if he wants to start padding his numbers for an eventual Hall of Fame case, there wouldn't be a better spot for it. That the Reds are close enough to contending that you could see them making a run with their pitching only helps the case.
If Arenado (and the notoriously cheap Reds) are open to it, it would be a natural fit – and with Noelvi Marte getting some reps in the outfield lately, it almost feels like the Reds might be preparing for something like this. On the Cardinals' side of things, whatever minimal prospect return they get for Arenado would be less of a concern than the ability to give JJ Wetherholt an extended look down the stretch. One of the team's top prospects is hitting .310/.429/.524 in his first full season as a pro and hasn't been challenged so far in Triple-A, with four homers in eight games. Getting an extended look at him for the final two months would give the Cardinals a sense of where he fits long term (he's a shortstop, but he isn't as good with the glove as Masyn Winn) as they continue to try to rebuild on the fly.
Sandy Alcantara to the Giants
The Giants already took a big swing with the Rafael Devers trade, but with Kyle Harrison gone in that move and Hayden Birdsong falling apart since then, there's still a need for pitching. Would they take the flier on Alcantara, who has struggled mightily in his return from Tommy John surgery? Well, the appeal from a Fantasy perspective is obvious: Oracle Park is one of the best places to pitch in the majors, and its ability to suppress left-handed power would be especially appealing, given Alcantara's struggles against them this season. The bigger question might be whether the Giants have the prospects to get it done – the Marlins would love to get Bryce Eldridge back for Alcantara, but that isn't happening.
Five prospects to stash for the deadline
In his latest Prospects Report column, Scott White wrote about 10 possible trade deadline risers to consider stashing, and the most surprising thing might be that Bubba Chandler wasn't one of them. The reasoning goes like this: If the Pirates haven't called Chandler up yet, why would a potential Mitch Keller trade change that? If they wanted Chandler in their rotation, Andrew Heaney, Bailey Falter, or Mike Burrows aren't real obstacles to that. I do think we'll see Chandler up soon, personally, but I also thought that was true in April, so clearly I don't have a great read on what the Pirates want to do.
With that being said, here are five prospects Scott does think could benefit from the trade deadline, along with some of Scott's thoughts on each. For more on each player, plus five more to consider stashing, head here for the full column:
- Samuel Basallo, C, Orioles: "Seeing as the Orioles didn't call up Basallo when Adley Rutschman went down with an oblique injury, you may wonder why a Ryan O'Hearn trade would change anything. For one thing, it's a more permanent displacement of a player. Rutschman was never expected to be sidelined for long. For another, I don't think the Orioles actually view Basallo as a catcher, just like they don't actually view Coby Mayo as a third baseman."
- Jordan Lawlar, SS, Diamondbacks: "Lawlar is killing it as usual at Triple-A, but it doesn't really matter to me how he's doing. He's done plenty already. In fact, I can't remember a prospect more overdue for a legitimate big-league opportunity than Lawlar, having gotten his first taste late in 2023 and been forced to wait for his opening ever since. This trade deadline seems like his best opportunity to claim a place in the lineup all for himself."
- Spencer Jones, OF, Yankees: "Jones dropped off every major top-100 list prior to this season and still wasn't getting much love as recently as a couple weeks ago. But that's about the time that a home run binge vaulted him to Triple-A, where he's homered 10 times in 18 games. In all, he has 16 homers in 31 games, batting .403 (50 for 124) during that time to finally live up to the massive power potential inherent to his 6-foot-7 frame. The surge coincides with a batting stance change that he thinks helps him react to pitches quicker, and combined with his efforts to improve his launch angle this offseason, it may signal a genuine breakthrough."
- Owen Caissie, OF, Cubs: "Caissie's profile is less exaggerated than Jones' but similar. He always projected for massive power, but he reached the upper minors without having learned to manifest it fully while striking out at a rate that made everyone uncomfortable. Well, he's manifesting it now, having eclipsed last year's home run total in just 78 games. He's also beating down the door to the majors with his performance in July, having already delivered three multi-homer games and a separate five-hit game, batting .364 (20 for 55) with eight home runs for the month. Unfortunately, he's blocked twice over with the Cubs, who have a stacked starting outfield and a spare one (Seiya Suzuki) at DH. It's why Caissie's best use for a World Series contender may be as a trade asset, potentially being moved to a team that could grant him a promotion right away."
- Moises Ballesteros, C, Cubs: "I mentioned that Caissie is blocked twice over in the outfield, and the same could be said for Ballesteros at catcher, where Carson Kelly has become an unexpected star for the Cubs and Miguel Amaya, who has good upside himself, is soon to return from an oblique injury. Few scouts view Ballesteros as a catcher long-term anyway, and seeing as he stands only 5-feet-7, first base is likely out of reach (quite literally) as well. It's his bat and his bat alone that makes Ballesteros such an asset, which tells you it's a special bat indeed, but it's not like he's breaking in at DH either with Seiya Suzuki entrenched there. Bottom line is that he's an imperfect fit at all of the possible fits, but a rebuilding club would have the freedom to explore each rather than blocking Ballesteros at every turn."
Five bullpens to watch
Either Jhoan Duran or Griffin Jax could be on the move, and like with the Guardians situation, such a trade could potentially unlock two elite closers. Duran has been excellent in that role over the years, while Jax's inflated ERA in 2025 hides how good he has been – he has a sub-2.00 FIP over the past two seasons. We love to see both unleashed as top-12 options down the stretch.
Pirates
David Bednar has looked like his old self since an early-season demotion, and he seems like maybe the single most likely closer to be moved at the deadline. The Phillies would be a great landing spot, the Cubs might be interested in a closer, and the Dodgers or Tigers might be willing to take on another big name, though both have fairly crowded situations right now. One dark horse for a closer like Bednar: The Rangers, who have gone through a bunch of different options in the ninth and could still view themselves as potential contenders.
You can never really count on the Angels to sell if they aren't mathematically eliminated. Do they consider themselves to be while sitting four games under .500 and fourth in the AL West, 10.5 games back of the division lead, and five out of the Wild Card spot? One would hope so, which should make Kenley Jansen a prime candidate to be traded. Which makes Reid Detmers a prime candidate to be a big contributor down the stretch. Detmers struggled initially after being sent to the bullpen, but his peripherals have been great, and since May 9, he has a 1.45 ERA and 33% strikeout rate in his past 31 innings. He might have finally found the right role, and I'm hoping he gets a real chance to close after the deadline.
The Nationals didn't end up moving Kyle Finnegan at last year's deadline, and now he's having a much worse season, so the trade appeal is even less obvious. But the 33-year-old also has little long-term value to the perpetually rebuilding Nats, so even getting a low-probability prospect from A-ball would be a win for the Nats. There isn't an obvious closer-in-waiting here, so there's no need to get ahead of the crowd by adding Jose Ferrer, or something. But someone would have to get the saves in Washington if Finnegan is moved.
Orioles
With Felix Bautista going on the IL with a shoulder injury Thursday, he's likely off the table as a trade chip, so the Orioles stand out among this group as a team to watch for non-trade reasons. In their first game without Bautista, Seranthony Dominguez worked the eighth inning while Gregory Soto got the save in a clean ninth inning, so he might be the leader in the clubhouse after one game. But Yennier Cano has some closing experience and might have been unavailable for this one after he worked consecutive games and three of the past four days. He hasn't been great this season, but he might still end up getting the next chance, given his experience in the role.
