Aaron Glenn, you just made the list. 

We nearly went 4-1 with my Locks of the Week for Week 6, but we endured a tough beat in the final seconds of the Jets-Patriots matchup in Foxborough. Down 10 and just 36 seconds remaining in regulation, Glenn sent out the field goal unit to cut New England's lead to a single possession. Jason Sanders trotted out onto the field and easily netted the 36-yard field goal to make it a 26-19 deficit. 

The ensuing onside kick was unsuccessful, and that brings us to our final, with the Patriots failing to cover the 7.5 spread by the hook. Ouch. 

As brutal a beat as that was, I get it. If you kick the field goal and you recover the onside kick, you're a Hail Mary away from tying the game. It's not the most likely of outcomes (as we saw), but it was a sliver of a chance that Glenn had to take, so it's hard to blame him. Even if it does sting on the gambling front. 

That brought us to a 3-2 ATS record with my five locks for Week 6, and that was truly the lone bright spot of a slate where I went 5-9 ATS and 6-8 SU overall. I'll look to stabilize that record in Week 7, and that begins, as always, with my five locks. 

Note: Buffalo, Los Angeles (Chargers), Washington, and Jacksonville are on the bye in Week 7.

2026 record

  • Locks of the Week ATS: 15-14-1
  • ATS: 38-53-2
  • ML: 57-35-1

Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings

We told you last week that the Colts were nowhere near being a 7-point favorite against anyone, including the Titans. That proved to be right on the money as they lost outright, which helped lead to the firing of GM Chris Ballard. I'm not sure if a GM getting fired has the same effect as when a coach gets fired, and you see a galvanized effort the following game. That's especially true when the Indy offense continues to look lost with Daniel Jones at the helm and is now set to face Brian Flores' top-notch Vikings defense. 

This season, Minnesota leads the NFL in blitz rate at a blistering 69.8%. Jones has largely checked down against the blitz this season, with his air yards per attempt falling to 5.2 against the blitz compared to 9.5 without it. In my view, that just means even less of a threat for explosive plays on the Colts' end, which helps keep things in check. The Vikings defense, which will be well rested after being on the bye, is No. 1 in the NFL in third-down and red-zone efficiency. That's a nightmare matchup for the Colts' offense, which is averaging just 4.7 yards per play. 

Meanwhile, I'm encouraged by Kyler Murray as he's coming off his best performance of the season. So far, his passer rating and yards per attempt have improved in each game this season. With the rest and home-field advantage, Minnesota should leave Indy in the dust. 

Projected score: Vikings 33, Colts 19
The pick: Vikings -6.5

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets

Yes, we put Aaron Glenn in the crosshairs in the lede, but let me give you a quick life lesson -- Don't let yesterday impact tomorrow. Sure, the Jets burned us last week, but that shouldn't mean we look at them any differently in Week 7, especially with a fantastic matchup against the winless Dolphins. New York was competitive with the Patriots last week, and they've been a team we've backed several times already in 2026.  

The offense is a concern, as they have the worst red-zone efficiency (38%) in the NFL and rank 27th in points per game (18.7). However, I'm not sure how much that'll matter against a Dolphins offense tied for the fewest points in the NFL (14.0). New York is allowing just 20.3 points per game this season, which is tied for the seventh-fewest in the league. So, it might not be too heavy of a lift for Geno Smith and company to jump out in front of the Dolphins and clear the number. 

Projected score: Jets 23, Dolphins 16
The pick: Jets -4.5

Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans

Tennessee notched its first win of the season last week by taking down the Colts, but I don't think this is a sign they're about to crawl out of the basement. The Titans have made incremental improvements, but they were outgained by 213 yards last week despite the win. As I wrote about in last week's picks column, taking the Titans to cover was more about Indianapolis than anything else, and that remains true, which is why we're fading them this time around. 

The Browns are ... good? They pulled off an upset win over the Lamar Jackson-less Ravens last week and, remarkably, stand in first place in the AFC North heading into Week 7. Deshaun Watson has been clutch this season, as he has four game-winning drives where he's been money. In that window, Watson has completed 75% of his passes (18-of-24), thrown for 179 yards, and has two touchdowns with zero interceptions. To his credit, Cam Ward has also popped in the fourth quarter this season as well, but Tennessee is also tied for the fewest points scored in the NFL over the first three quarters. If that persists, Cleveland has a defense capable of snuffing out any late Ward comeback attempt. 

Projected score: Browns 24, Titans 17
The pick: Browns -1.5

Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals

The Broncos offense is broken. More specifically, Bo Nix appears to be broken. Yeah, they beat the Seahawks last week, but they did that in spite of their quarterback play. Nix averages 5.6 yards per attempt, along with just 4.9 air yards. That air yards per attempt average is the shortest through six games in the past 20 seasons. Overall, the offense is 26th in points per game and 31st in total yards per game and yards per play. Nothing about that screams road favorite. 

Arizona is coming off its second upset win of the season, slaying the Rams with a strong defensive effort. The Cardinals just held Matthew Stafford and Co. to 16 points. If that even remotely carries over, it's going to be another quiet showing for the Denver offense. Of course, there are concerns about the Cardinals offense, especially after going 0-5 in the red zone last week, but I have way more faith in that unit than what the Broncos are producing currently. I'll take the points and sprinkle on another upset. 

Projected score: Cardinals 23, Broncos 20
The pick: Cardinals +4.5

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

There's still no word as to whether Lamar Jackson will, in fact, return for this game, but the line suggests he will. Even assuming that No. 8 will be under center for Baltimore, I like the Bengals here as they are fresh off a bye in Week 6. Joe Burrow doesn't have the best head-to-head splits against Jackson in their careers, but the Bengals QB was playing well entering the break and currently ranks second in completion percentage and seventh in passing yards per game. 

I also believe this week's game will highlight Cincinnati's interior defensive line and expose a weakness for Baltimore on the interior of its offensive line. The Bengals have the second-most sacks in the NFL by defensive tackles through Week 6, while the Ravens have had a rotating door at center. This game could be one of the key examples as to why Cincinnati traded for Dexter Lawrence this offseason. 

The Bengals are also 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games after a win that Burrow starts. 

Projected score: Bengals 30, Ravens 23
The pick: Bengals +2.5

Rest of the bunch

Patriots at Bears (Thursday)
Projected score: Bears 24, Patriots 20
The pick: Bears -3

Steelers at Saints (in Paris)
Projected score: Steelers 30, Saints 23
The pick: Steelers -3.5

Giants at Texans
Projected score: Texans 27, Giants 20
The pick: Giants +9.5

49ers at Falcons
Projected score: 49ers 24, Falcons 21
The pick: Falcons +3.5

Buccaneers at Panthers
Projected score: Panthers 28, Buccaneers 20
The pick: Panthers -3.5

Packers at Lions
Projected score: Lions 33, Packers 26
The pick: Lions -3

Rams at Raiders
Projected score: Rams 30, Raiders 27
The pick: Raiders +4.5

Chiefs at Seahawks
Projected score: Chiefs 24, Seahawks 23
The pick: Chiefs +2.5

Cowboys at Eagles (Monday)
Projected score: Cowboys 27, Eagles 17
The pick: Cowboys -4.5

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