NFL Week 7 betting power ratings: Chiefs return to top spot amid numerous injuries to other top teams
Here's how we're setting the spreads for every Week 7 matchup in the NFL
Our top two teams in last week's ratings were the Bills and Lions, and both went out and lost by double digits in primetime. Typically I'm not going to move my spread power ratings much on the basis of one result, but both teams exhibited similar issues on defenses that are starting to become too shorthanded on defense to make a claim that they're the league's best team. As a result, both have been adjusted downward far enough that they appear behind another team in each conference.
Those two teams are the Chiefs and Packers, my Super Bowl prediction prior to the season. The Chiefs just got finished taking care of the Lions and holding Detroit under 100 rushing yards, the first to do so since the Packers in Week 1. Kansas City will finally welcome Rashee Rice back into the fold, a huge development for a team that has been waiting for a No. 1 receiver to step up and become the go-to threat of the passing game, opening things up for the rest of the deep cast of pass-catchers.
The Packers don't deserve a massive boost for taking care of the Bengals, but the offensive line is finally starting to get healthy and Christian Watson's return is on the horizon, potentially even this week. The defense really needs Devonte Wyatt back, and for that reason maybe the Packers should be level with the Bills and Lions instead of slightly ahead of them. Unlike those two teams, the Packers are relatively healthy outside of the Wyatt injury, and the unit held the Bengals to just seven points through three quarters. I see it as reasonable to place them between the Chiefs and the injury-riddled contenders.
My spread power ratings measure how much better or worse a team is than average and allow us to create a spread for the game on a neutral field that we can then adjust to account for home field advantage and get the spread we believe should be offered by sportsbooks for this game. Maintaining power ratings allows you to project spreads and potentially get ahead of line moves early in the week, like we did with a Falcons-49ers spread I expect to drop in the next few days.
I have several more spread picks already locked in at SportsLine, where members are able to get access to all my picks throughout the week as they're made and hopefully take advantage of some good line value.
Let's dive into our betting power ratings and highlight a few more teams of note.
Week 7 power ratings
| Team | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 5.5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2.5 |
| GB | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| BUF | 4.5 | 6.5 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| DET | 4.5 | 5.5 | 5 | 5 | 3 |
| PHI | 3 | 4 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 6 |
| LAR | 3 | 4 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 3.5 |
| TB | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| SEA | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| IND | 2.5 | 3 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1 |
| WAS | 2.5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| DEN | 2 | 3 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1 |
| LAC | 2 | 2 | 3.5 | 4 | 4 |
| NE | 1 | 1 | -1 | -1.5 | -1.5 |
| ATL | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| PIT | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1.5 | -1.5 |
| BAL | 0 | -5 | -3 | 7 | 7 |
| JAC | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| HOU | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| MIN | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| SF | -1.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| ARI | -1.5 | -1.5 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
| CHI | -1.5 | -1.5 | -1.5 | -1 | -1.5 |
| DAL | -1.5 | -1.5 | -1.5 | -2 | -1.5 |
| NYG | -3 | -5 | -4 | -4 | -3.5 |
| CAR | -4 | -4.5 | -5 | -5 | -5.5 |
| NO | -4 | -4.5 | -5 | -5.5 | -4 |
| LV | -4 | -4 | -3 | -2.5 | -1.5 |
| MIA | -4.5 | -4.5 | -4 | -2.5 | -3.5 |
| CLE | -5 | -4.5 | -5 | -5 | -5.5 |
| CIN | -5.5 | -5 | -4.5 | -3.5 | -3 |
| TEN | -6.5 | -6 | -7 | -4.5 | -4 |
| NYJ | -6.5 | -6 | -4.5 | -3.5 | -3.5 |
The Eagles downgrades seem like I'm being too aggressive, but this is an offense averaging just 3.5 yards per carry while averaging the same 4.7 yards per play as the Jets, who I'm not convinced week to week will complete a forward pass. You could argue they've been close to a -3 team than a +3 team so far despite the 4-2 record, which owes something to fluke special teams plays that are not predictive moving forward. The Rams have been far better, but they get downgraded for the loss of Puka Nacua for at least a week, and he has to have at least a point of value to the spread with his level of play so far.
The Bucs upgrading a point for a second straight week is probably too aggressive considering all the injuries they have on offense, but Baker Mayfield is making it work while playing like the MVP front-runner. The Seahawks are seeing the same upgrades as the Bucs and are a much healthier team, so if I were to elevate anyone out of this tier right now, I'd probably make it them. The Colts' offense is matching Seattle's at 6.3 yards per play, but I have less confidence in their defense as well as questions about the level of talent they've succeeded against, particularly having to fight to beat the Jacoby Brissett-led Cardinals.
The Patriots, Steelers and Falcons may all be average teams or up alongside teams like the Seahawks, Colts or Broncos. The Patriots and Falcons are a bit more proven with wins over the Bills, and if they continue to look good they'll start moving quickly up the ratings. I'm rating the Ravens as if they'll have Lamar Jackson back, and there's room to move them up to that Patriots tier if they get healthier at other positions as well. The 49ers have to be below average without Nick Bosa and Fred Warner for the rest of the season, but we'll see if George Kittle comes back this week and helps steady the offense. With the current state of their roster, they could start stacking losses quickly.
Then we have the Giants, a team that I'm being aggressive upgrading with how solid Jaxson Dart looked against the Eagles, piling up points against a pretty solid defense despite the lack of weapons in the passing game. The Giants' defense also pitched a shutout in the second half, and if that unit starts coming together, then there's a path for the Giants to quickly get through the tier above and start to be rated around average.
Full Week 7 projected lines
| Away | Home | Lookahead | Consensus | PR Spread | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers | Bengals | +4.5 | +5.5 | +5 | |
| Rams | Jaguars | +3.5 | +3 | +3 | In London, Nacua absence baked in |
| Panthers | Jets | -2.5 | +2 | +0.5 | Move through 0 as market fades Jets |
| Raiders | Chiefs | -10.5 | -11.5 | -10.5 | |
| Dolphins | Browns | -2.5 | -2.5 | -2 | |
| Saints | Bears | -6 | -5.5 | -5 | |
| Patriots | Titans | +6 | +7 | +5.5 | Will TEN get interim coach bounce? |
| Eagles | Vikings | +3 | +2.5 | +2 | PR spread projects McCarthy starting |
| Colts | Chargers | -1.5 | -1.5 | -0.5 | |
| Giants | Broncos | -8 | -7 | -7.5 | |
| Packers | Cardinals | +5.5 | +6.5 | +4.5 | PR Spread is if Murray plays |
| Commanders | Cowboys | +2.5 | +2 | +3 | |
| Falcons | 49ers | -4.5 | -2.5 | PK | SF injuries should keep dropping line |
| Buccaneers | Lions | -4.5 | -4.5 | -3 | |
| Texans | Seahawks | -2.5 | -3.5 | -4.5 |
This is how I would set each game based on my power ratings and home field advantage data for this week. A large discrepancy between the projected power rating lines and the market lines does not make the game an autoplay, but it gives us a basis for potential strong picks pending further analysis.
