It was finally a great week, going 9-6 against the spread, 11-4-1 straight up and 3-2 on best bets. Maybe you don't consider that a "great week," but this season has been tough. The 9-6 record was actually tied for the best mark at CBS Sports last week, and the 37-41-1 overall ATS record ranks third. A lot of time to bounce back.
Last week, we knew the Pittsburgh Steelers would easily cover against the Indianapolis Colts, the Cincinnati Bengals took care of business against the Miami Dolphins and the New York Giants covered 3.5 points in a weird tie with the Washington Commanders. However, the Cleveland Browns let us down in a gross matchup dominated by bad weather, while the Jacksonville Jaguars struggled against a short-handed Philadelphia Eagles squad. Don't overlook that result.
Here's a look at what I'm thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Top five picks ATS record: 13-12
Overall ATS record: 37-41-1
Straight-up record: 46-32-1
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5)
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (NFL Network, Stream: Fubo, try for free)
The Houston Texans finally got that elusive first victory against the lowly Tennessee Titans, and then scored another victory directly after the game by trading for Arizona Cardinals wideout Marvin Harrison Jr. -- reuniting him with his college quarterback, C.J. Stroud.
I'm calling my shot here: Take the Texans to build on their momentum against the Jaguars in London. The Jaguars are one of the best teams in the NFL, but it's hard to ignore last week's struggles. Jacksonville went 0-3 in the red zone against the Eagles, including two trips where the Jags failed to score any points from the one-yard line. As for the Texans, maybe this defense tightens up with DeMeco Ryans calling the plays again. Houston is also 14-2 straight up and 11-4-1 against the spread in its last 16 divisional games away from home.
The pick: Texans +2.5
Projected score: Texans 21-18
New York Jets at New England Patriots (-7.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)
The reports of the New England Patriots' demise have been greatly exaggerated. They destroyed a previously one-loss Las Vegas Raiders team, 45-17, on Sunday, and get the New York Jets at home. The Patriots are 10-1 in their past 11 home games, 6-1 in their past seven AFC East games, and 11-0 under Mike Vrabel vs. teams entering the matchup with a losing record. New England is also 9-2 SU and ATS in its last 11 vs. the Jets -- who haven't covered the spread vs. an AFC East opponent under head coach Aaron Glenn.
Drake Maye has scored eight total touchdowns with two turnovers over the past two games, after scoring one touchdown with seven turnovers over the first three games of the season. Plus, this Patriots defensive front has really impressed. I mentioned this earlier in the week: the football world isn't talking enough about the impact rookie Gabe Jacas and Elijah Ponder have had on Vrabel's defensive line. This Ponder guy has 4.5 sacks over the last four games!
The pick: Patriots -7.5
Projected score: Patriots 28-20
Carolina Panthers (-3.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)
I planned to make this a top pick before Jalen Hurts' unfortunate blood clot.
CBS Sports' John Breech pointed out that the Eagles are facing a scheduling disadvantage this week that no team has EVER overcome.
The Eagles are coming off an international game and are facing the Carolina Panthers, who are coming off their bye. This has only happened four times, but the team coming off the international game is 0-4 straight up and 0-3-1 against the spread.
Philly really botched that game against the Jaguars last Sunday morning, and Nick Sirianni just put himself that much more on the hot seat with his decision to keep the final kickoff in play. The Eagles still have some serious injury issues with Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith and Drew Kendall working through various issues. Plus, Philly has covered the spread just once all season!
The last time the Panthers took the field, they scored an impressive victory against the Detroit Lions. Bryce Young threw for 329 yards and two touchdowns, Chuba Hubbard rushed for 122 yards and two touchdowns and Tet McMillan caught 14 passes for 192 yards and two scores.
The pick: Panthers -3.5
Projected score: Panthers 24-20
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-12.5)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)
I think people see this line and say, "OK, it's a massive number for a divisional game with the favorite coming off a tough loss on Monday night. Let's auto-bet the dogs to cover." Sometimes I do that, but not in this situation.
I think Sean McVay and the Los Angeles Rams are seeing red after Week 5. McVay got too conservative in overtime after his offense had scored THREE STRAIGHT touchdowns to end the fourth quarter, while the special teams unit as a whole disappointed again. Now, the preseason Super Bowl favorites have a losing record through five weeks. It's time to get back on track.
The Rams are 10-1 SU and 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss. That's pretty remarkable. The Cardinals are also 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games as a double-digit road underdog. I genuinely believed they would cover the spread against the Lions last week, but Jacoby Brissett's offense didn't have the success I expected. Arizona was out-scored, 24-7, in the first half, and that was it. Give me the Rams, big.
The pick: Rams -12.5
Projected score: Rams 30-17
Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers (-7.5)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, Stream: Fubo, try for free)
Go ahead and believe I'm being dramatic here, but I really do wonder how the locker room and the coaching staff is feeling after the Commanders ran out the clock on themselves in overtime. I became more bewildered the more I looked into it. Because offensive coordinator David Blough called a play with motion as those precious seconds continued to tick off the clock, while quarterback Jayden Daniels simply forgot about the situation. As a quarterback, you're looking at the clock and the play clock before every snap. For him to take a dive in that spot was just absolutely insane.
As for the San Francisco 49ers, they have been pretty trustworthy from a gambling perspective. They are 4-1 ATS this year, and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 primetime games when favored by at least three points. I think it's possible Washington could rally and Daniels puts together a magnificent game. After all, he did rush for 103 yards and two touchdowns on Sunday. But with the Commanders being publicly shamed all week and then having to fly across the country to face the best team in the NFL, I'm not sure they get a cover here.
The pick: 49ers -7.5
Projected score: 49ers 28-20
Other Week 6 picks
Seahawks (-2.5) 23-20 over Broncos
Colts 24-20 over Titans (+7)
Falcons (+1.5) 30-27 over Bears
Ravens (-3.5) 26-20 over Browns
Steelers (-2.5) 21-17 over Buccaneers
Giants (+1.5) 28-27 over Saints
Chiefs (-8.5) 24-14 over Chargers
Bills 26-23 over Raiders (+4.5)
Packers (-1.5) 27-24 over Cowboys
