NFL Week 4 picks, ranking 3-0 teams and predictions for Seahawks vs. Cardinals on 'Thursday Night Football'

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Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!

If you're a sports fan, you better buckle up, because we're heading into one of the wildest weekends of the year. Starting with tonight's game between the Cardinals and Seahawks, it is going to be a nonstop sports weekend that will feature several big events from the Ryder Cup to the WNBA playoffs to several high-profile college football games. (Can I interest anyone in Penn State-Oregon or Alabama-Georgia?)

Not to mention, the NFL has a pretty solid schedule with the Ravens facing the Chiefs on Sunday in a game that will be on CBS. Also, we get to see Micah Parsons go for some revenge against Jerry Jones when the Packers face the Cowboys. And, as a long-suffering Reds fan, I will also mention this is the final weekend of the MLB regular season. There will be several playoff spots decided this weekend, including the third NL wild card spot that the Reds are battling for.

OK, I have to go let my family know I won't be seeing them for the next 72 hours. Before I do that, though, let's get to today's newsletter.

As always, here's your reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here.

1. Thursday night preview: Picks and best bets for Seahawks at Cardinals

The NFC West is currently the only division in the NFL where all four teams are over .500, but that won't be the case after tonight with the 2-1 Seahawks facing off with the 2-1 Cardinals in Arizona. This will mark the first time in three years the Cardinals have played on a Thursday, and they'll be doing so in style by becoming the first NFL team to wear their new "Rivalries" uniform. If you want to see what the sandstorm-themed uniforms look like, you can check them out here.

Jared Dubin put a preview together for this game. Here's how he sees it playing out:

Why the Seahawks can win: This could potentially be a huge night for Sam Darnold, who will be going up against a Cardinals defense that has surrendered the third-most passing yards in the NFL through three weeks. In his first year with the Seahawks, Darnold has quickly developed a connection with Jaxson Smith-Njigba, who ranks second in the NFL in receiving yards with 323. If Darnold goes off and turns this game into a shootout, it's hard to imagine the Cardinals keeping up. The Cards are coming off a Week 3 loss where they scored just 15 points.
Why the Cardinals can win: This could turn into a huge game for Trey McBride. The Seahawks defense has been pretty solid this year, but if the unit has struggled at one thing, it's stopping tight ends, which could open the door for McBride to have a big night. The Seahawks have surrendered 24 receptions and three touchdown catches to tight ends this year, which is tied for the most in the NFL in both categories. With James Conner out, the Cardinals may have to lean on their passing game, and if that happens, McBride will be the guy to watch. He might be able to single-handedly lead Arizona to a win.

You can get a full preview of the game from Dubin by clicking here.

If you're thinking about betting on the game, here are a couple of props (odds via BetMGM):

ONE RUSHING PROP I LIKE: Sam Darnold OVER 218.5 passing yards (-115): Through three weeks, the Cardinals are giving up an average of 264.5 passing yards per game, which is the third-highest total in the NFL. That stat looks even worse when you consider the Cardinals defense has faced Spencer Rattler (Saints), Bryce Young (Panthers) and Mac Jones (49ers). If the Cardinals couldn't slow down those three quarterbacks, it's hard to envision them stopping Darnold.
ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE: Jason Myers OVER 6.5 points (-145): The Seahawks have played three games this year, and Myers has gone over 6.5 points in all three. The Seahawks offense has moved the ball well this season, but they've struggled on third down with a conversion rate of just 36.4%, which ranks 25th in the NFL. Those failed third downs lead to a lot of fourth downs, which should lead to plenty of field goal opportunities for Myers.

If you're wondering how my props are doing this year, I'm 5-6 (3-2 on kicker props and 2-4 on all other props).

And now, it's time for some picks.

PICKS FOR 'TNF'

Dubin's pick: Seahawks 24-17 over Cardinals
Pete Prisco's pick: Cardinals 20-17 over Seahawks
Tyler Sullivan's pick: Seahawks 24-21 over Cardinals
Jordan Dajani's pick: Seahawks 23-21 over Cardinals
My pick: Seahawks 27-20 over Cardinals

We've got some more picks over on our CBSSports.com predictions page, and you can check that out here.

2. Ranking the NFL's 3-0 teams: Who's a pretender and who's a contender?

As we get ready to head into Week 4, there are only six undefeated teams left in the NFL. When you get off to a 3-0 start, that usually means good things: Since the NFL expanded the postseason field to 14 teams in 2020, teams that get off to a 3-0 start have made the playoffs 86.4% of the time.

All six of these teams might end up making the playoffs, but are they actually Super Bowl contenders? Jeff Kerr decided to rank all six teams.

1. Bills. Buffalo is going to run away with the division and has a relatively easy schedule for the next month, before facing Kansas City in November.
2. Eagles. The Eagles just can't be counted out of games, and will be in the mix for Super Bowl contention all year.
3. Chargers. The Chargers have the look of a team that's set to have a great season. They are off to a 3-0 start for the first time since 2002 and have beaten all AFC West opponents in doing so.
4. 49ers. A good start is what the 49ers needed with all their injuries. If the 49ers can get healthy, they can rack up even more wins with their easy out-of-division schedule.
5. Buccaneers. How good are the Buccaneers compared to the rest of the NFC? This year could be Tampa Bay's best shot if the Buccaneers can rack up some wins in a poor division. They have a big test against the Eagles on Sunday, a team the Buccaneers have done very well against in the past.
6. Colts. Of the 3-0 teams, the Colts are by far the most surprising. ... No matter how Indianapolis fares in 2025, the Colts are already on track for a successful season given their preseason expectations.

If you want to check out Kerr's full explanation for his rankings, we've got that here.

3. NFL Week 4 picks: Steelers win in Ireland, Chiefs win AFC showdown with Ravens

Welcome to the part of the newsletter where we hand out picks. We have four NFL writers -- Pete Prisco, Jordan Dajani, Tyler Sullivan and myself -- handing out picks each week. Prisco has bragging rights heading into Week 4 after going 13-3 straight up with his picks last week. I hate when Prisco has bragging rights, because he never stops talking.

If you're new here, here's how things work: I'll give you one Week 4 pick from each writer and then direct you to the rest of their picks for the week. That way, if you like their pick, you'll be able to click over and check out all of their Week 3 picks, but if you hate their pick, you can ignore the rest of their picks and move on with your life.

Pete Prisco -- Steelers (+2.5) 23-20 over Vikings (Ireland). "This game in Ireland will be the first of two overseas for the Vikings in successive weeks. That will be challenging. The Vikings were outstanding last week against the Bengals, with the defense coming up big. I think Aaron Rodgers will play well against that defense, while Carson Wentz will struggle some. Steelers win it." For the rest of Prisco's Week 4 picks, be sure to click here.
Tyler Sullivan -- Packers (-7) 30-20 over Cowboys. "While Parsons will certainly be the key storyline coming into this matchup, I believe Jordan Love will be the talking point once the dust is settled. The Cowboys have made average quarterbacks (Russell Wilson and Caleb Williams) look godly over the last two weeks. What happens when an above-average quarterback like Love squares up against them? Even with a questionable receiver room around him, Love has enough to put together a dazzling performance through the air on Sunday night." For the rest of Sullivan's Week 4 picks, be sure to click here.
Jordan Dajani -- Chiefs (+2.5) 26-23 over Ravens. "The Chiefs are expected to get Xavier Worthy back this week, which is a huge lift. I don't know if Kyle Van Noy and Nnamdi Madubuike will be back for Baltimore. Patrick Mahomes is 11-5 straight up and 12-3-1 against the spread in his career as an underdog, including playoffs. He's 5-1 all-time against Lamar Jackson, so I'll take the Chiefs." Dajani's full slate of picks will be released Friday, and you'll be able to find them here.
John Breech -- Buccaneers (+3.5) 23-20 over Eagles. "Nick Sirianni is one of the best coaches in the NFL, but he always seems to get out-coached by Todd Bowles. The Buccaneers head coach is 4-1 in his past five games against Sirianni, and a big reason for that is because the Bucs have limited Philly to just 17.4 points per game. On the flip side, the Buccaneers have averaged 27 points per game in those five meetings. So, the Eagles offense can't move the ball against Tampa Bay and the Philly defense can't make any stops. That seems like an advantage for Tampa Bay." For the rest of my Week 4 picks, be sure to click here.

For more Week 4 NFL picks, you can check out our CBSSports.com picks page here.

4. NFL Week 4 upset alert: 5 favorites that could go down

There is no one better at picking upsets than Tyler Sullivan. In this spot last week, Sullivan predicted one of the biggest upsets of Week 3 with his pick of the Lions over the Ravens.

He's putting five more teams on upset alert for Week 4.

Let's take a look at three games where Sullivan thinks an upset might happen:

Colts (+3.5) over Rams. At some point, we have to decide if we believe what we're seeing with Daniel Jones and the Colts or if we think they're fool's gold. This season, they are tied for second in points per game, fourth in passing yards per game, and third in rushing yards per game. They've also turned the ball over a grand total of zero times. If that's who they are, they can go into pretty much any building and go toe to toe with any club in the NFL.
Jets (+2.5) over Dolphins. We don't have much clarity on who'll be under center for the Jets with Justin Fields still in concussion protocol. That said, it doesn't matter if it's Fields or backup Tyrod Taylor as the starter for the Jets, as this is a favorable spot regardless. While both squads enter this game 0-3 on the year, Miami feels more in disarray.
Titans (+7.5) over Texans. This game feels like a gross, low-scoring AFC South affair. I think this game goes under the total, which suggests that Tennessee will have a great shot at covering with the 7.5 points in their pocket. To get a step further, there's no reason to think the Titans can't pull off the upset here, given what we've seen from the Texans in 2025. The offensive line continues to be in shambles, and C.J. Stroud hasn't elevated much of anything around him.

If you want to see Sullivan's full list of possible upsets for Week 4, we've got them here.

5. Hall of Fame reveals nominees for 2025: Drew Brees eligible for the first time

There are 128 modern-era nominees for the Pro Football Hall of Fame class of 2026, and on Wednesday, the HOF released the full list of players who were nominated this year. The list includes several big-named players who are eligible for the first time.

Here are a few of those names:

You can check out the entire list of nominees by clicking here. Not only will these first-year nominees be looking to get in, but there are also several finalists from last year, including Eli Manning, Reggie Wayne and Luke Kuechly, who will be hoping to hear their name called for enshrinement in Canton, Ohio.

The announcement of the nominees is just the first step in a process that will be going on for the next five months. The HOF will narrow down this list to a group of 50 players in October. After that, the group of 50 will be trimmed down to 25 semifinalists in November. From there, a group of 15 finalists will be named in January. After the three cutdowns have been made, the Hall of Fame Selection Committee will get together during Super Bowl week in February to vote on the players who will be getting in. The players will be considered for induction along with three Seniors Finalists, a Coach Finalist and a Contributor. Under HOF bylaws, the committee must select between four and eight people for induction.

6. Extra points: Tom Brady fires back at critics

It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.

Tom Brady sees no conflict of interest in his situation. The NFL legend doesn't think there's an issue with him owning part of the Raiders while also being a broadcaster for Fox, which gives him intimate access to other teams. "I love football. At its core it is a game of principles," Brady wrote. "And with all the success it has given me, I feel I have a moral and ethical duty to the sport; which is why the point where my roles in it intersect is not actually a point of conflict, despite what the paranoid and distrustful might believe. Rather, it's the place from which my ethical duty emerges: to grow, evolve, and improve the game that has given me everything." You can read more about Brady's take here.
Jayden Daniels' status still up in the air for Week 4. The Commanders QB was limited at practice on Wednesday with a knee injury, and it's still unclear if he's going to play this week against the Falcons. "It's up to the doctors," Daniels said. "Not my decision." Marcus Mariota led the Commanders to a 41-24 win over the Raiders in Week 3, and if Daniels can't go this week, Mariota will once again get the start. You can read more about Daniels' injury here.
Jared Goff jumps into the top five of our QB rankings. After leading the Lions to a big win over the Ravens on Monday night, Goff moved to fifth overall in our weekly QB rankings. Daniel Jones also cracked the top 10 for the first time ever. Cody Benjamin ranked all 32 starting quarterbacks, and if you want to see where everyone ended up, you can do that here.
Ranking revenge games. With Micah Parsons headed to Dallas this week, Tyler Sullivan thought now would be a good time to rank the NFL's best revenge games over the past five years. One of the games that made the list was Saquon Barkley's return to New York to face the Giants. You can see Sullivan's full list of revenge games here.