NFL Week 4 betting power ratings: Lions back among NFC elite with impressive win over Ravens

Week 3 ended with a bang on Monday night as the Lions went into Baltimore and looked much more like the Super Bowl contender many have become accustomed to seeing over the last few years rather than the overmatched team that faced the Packers in Week 1. The loss drops the Ravens to 1-2 and leaves only six teams in the AFC with winning records, and neither the Ravens nor Chiefs are among them. Those teams square off in Kansas City in Week 4, a meeting that will leave one expected Super Bowl contender 1-3 to start the season.

I have not moved the Ravens down in my betting power ratings for Week 4, although we must acknowledge that both Baltimore and Buffalo don't look like runaway juggernauts at this point. The offenses of both AFC rivals seem just fine, but both are dealing with issues on the defensive side of the ball. While Buffalo's secondary looks like it could be a problem against quality teams in the postseason, the Ravens must prove they can defend the run better than they did Monday, when David Montgomery gashed them to the tune of 151 yards on just 12 carries. Throw in Josh Allen's success throwing the ball in Week 1, and it's clear the Baltimore defense still has a lot to figure out.

The Bills and Ravens remain co-leaders in my spread power ratings, which measure how much better or worse a team is than average and allow us to create a spread for the game on a neutral field that we can then adjust to account for home field advantage and get the spread we believe should be offered by sportsbooks for this game. Where that number significantly differs from the market provides a potential betting opportunity depending on the confidence of our ratings.

The Bills are huge favorites this week against the Saints, so it's unlikely I'll have to decide whether to move their rating down after this coming week. But the Ravens have a tough road matchup with a Chiefs team that hasn't looked right all year. Kansas City is 21st in scoring on the season, as Patrick Mahomes has scored almost as many touchdowns with his legs (2) as with his arm (3). I've moved the Chiefs down five points from where I had them rated prior to the season thanks largely to their absences at receiver, but when Rashee Rice returns in a few weeks, they should be able to get back on track. It's important to remember that these ratings only reflect how a team should be rated at this exact moment, as they are intended to build a projected point spread for every game.

Week 4 power ratings

I've moved the Lions back to level with the Packers despite how the Week 1 matchup between the teams shook out. The Packers are again dealing with offensive line issues after Zach Tom and Aaron Banks were only able to return for a few plays, and I'm not sure you can definitively say one of these teams should be favored on a neutral field right now. I would take both over the Eagles, who were thoroughly outplayed by the Rams for most of Sunday's game. All four of those teams are close for me right now, and I can't argue against calling any of the four of them the No. 1 team in the conference after three weeks.

I'm stuck on what to do with the Chargers. They're 3-0 with wins against every team in their division, and they covered each game, yet it doesn't quite feel like they're on the level of Baltimore and Buffalo, even with the defensive issues of those teams. I'm left slotting them behind my top tier of NFC teams, but it's possible the entire top seven should be rated +5, and which one wins a matchup between any two depends largely on matchups.

I do think there's a bit of a drop to the next tier with the Chiefs and Commanders, who I haven't adjusted for Marcus Mariota starting, as that wasn't a lock last week when we did the ratings and isn't a lock this week either. While the Commanders looked just fine with Mariota last week, I'd put them as underdogs in Atlanta if he has to start this week. If it's Jayden Daniels, I'll give Washington the edge on a neutral field over the Broncos and Colts.

The 49ers get a bump up with the expectation Brock Purdy will be back this week, and it would've been a larger bump if not for the Nick Bosa injury. I could see the 49ers joining that top tier of NFC teams once they get healthy on offense, but for now I have them as slightly above average, as I see the defense as still being a quality unit without Bosa, even if it won't be as dominant as it has looked at times this season.

I'm not moving the Vikings up at all after the blowout win with Carson Wentz at quarterback, as that was the result of the defense spotting him a large lead early. I'd still take the Cardinals or Seahawks on a neutral field over the Vikings right now, but if I see them winning games because of Wentz's arm, then they'll move up in a hurry. I do agree they should be favored on a neutral field against the Steelers, but that line may be getting out of hand.

It feels like any team in the -2 to -4 range can be competitive or look like the worst team in football on any given day. I'm more pessimistic on the Giants and Titans right now, which slots them behind that group, though the move to Jaxson Dart has me upgrading the Giants by a half-point. Even as a rookie, he can't be worse than what we've seen from Russell Wilson in non-Cowboys matchups.

Full Week 4 projected lines

This is how I would set each game based on my power ratings and home field advantage data for this week. A large discrepancy between the projected power rating lines and the market lines does not make the game an autoplay, but it gives us a basis for potential strong picks pending further analysis.