NFL Week 15 picks and score predictions: Patriots and Broncos both lose, Dolphins shock Steelers

Guys, before we get to the picks this week, I have some good news and some bad news to share with you. The good news is that we made it 15 weeks without me talking about my fantasy football team. The bad news is that my team just made the playoffs and there's a 90% chance that's the only thing I'm going to talk for the next three weeks (or until I get eliminated). 

Six weeks ago, my team was 1-7 and I was the laughingstock of my league, but no one is laughing at me now or the fact that I used a fourth-round pick on Brandon Aubrey after he carried my team to its sixth-straight win and into the playoffs with a 23-point performance in Week 14. I should have used a first-round pick on him. Maybe next year. 

My team is basically the 2025 Houston Texans: We looked like we were going nowhere early on, but now, we're a threat to win it all. Speaking of the Texans, will I be taking them to win this week? Let's get to the Week 15 picks and find out. 

All lines via DraftKings Sportsbook, where new users get $200 in bonus bets if their first bet of at least $5 wins.

NFL Week 15 picks

Atlanta at Tampa Bay (-4.5)

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime)

After watching the Buccaneers play for the past five weeks, I've noticed a few troubling things about them: Their defense has gotten worse, their offense has gotten progressively worse and Baker Mayfield looks like he had just somehow had all the football information from his mind erased and he's now re-learning the entire sport from scratch. 

The Buccaneers went 5-1 in their first six games and that mostly happened because Mayfield was unstoppable. During that span, he averaged 256.5 passing yards per game, he threw 12 touchdowns compared to one interception and his QB rating was 108.5. However, Mayfield apparently hit a brain Neuralyzer from Men in Black in Week 7, because his production has fallen off a cliff since then. In his past seven games, he's averaging just 169 passing yards per and he's thrown just eight touchdowns compared to five interceptions. 

For the past eight weeks, Baker Mayfield has been the worst quarterback in the NFL not named J.J. McCarthy. 

For the first half of the season, Mayfield looked like an MVP candidate, but now he looks like McCarthy. No offense to J.J. McCarthy. Things aren't going to get any easier for Mayfield this week, because he's about to face a Falcons team that just happens to be one of the best in the NFL at stopping the pass. The Falcons haven't done much right this year, but I will give their pass defense some credit, because it's been impressive. Not only do the Falcons have third-most sacks in the NFL this year, but they're also surrendering just 191.5 passing yards per game. Mayfield has been held under 200 passing yards in five of his past six games and I don't like his chances this week of getting over that number. 

Normally, if the Falcons are playing in a big game, I pick against them, because I assume they'll find some bizarre way to blow it. However, this isn't a big game for the Falcons because there's no pressure on them this week: They've already been eliminated from the playoffs, so the only they thing they can do at this point is play spoiler. And we don't have to worry about them tanking, because they traded their first-round pick to the Rams. Basically, the Falcons have every reason to win. 

The last time these two teams played on a Thursday night, Kirk Cousins threw for 509 yards and the Falcons won in overtime. I don't think Cousins is going to throw for 509 yards again and we probably won't see overtime, but in the upside down NFC South where every game is unpredictable, I think the Falcons somehow pull this one out. 

PICK: Falcons 23-20 over Buccaneers

Buffalo (-1.5) at New England 

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

I'm guessing the first thing that Mike Vrabel is going to do this week is show his team the point spread for this game. The Patriots are tied for the best record in the AFC, they're playing at home and they've already beaten the Bills once,  but despite all of that, the Pats are NOT favored to win. 

Normally, I would go on a rant here about how the oddsmakers have no idea what they're doing, but if I've learned one thing over the course of my life, it's that the oddsmakers know EXACTLY what they're doing. They want us to jump on the home underdog. Actually in this situation, they want us to bet the road favorite. You know what? I don't know what they want, which means the oddsmakers have already won. 

Anyway, I'm not totally shocked to see that the Patriots are an underdog here and that's mostly because I'm still not sure how good they are. For the most part, I feel like I can tell if a team is any good after FOURTEEN WEEKS, but with the Patriots, I still have no idea. There are 14 teams in the NFL this year with eight or more wins and the Patriots have somehow only faced one of those teams (They beat the Bills 23-20 back in Week 5). 

There are nine teams averaging more than 25 points per game this year, the Patriots have faced exactly one of them (The Bills). There are 13 defenses in the NFL giving up less than 22 points per game and the Patriots have faced ZERO of them. I think what I'm trying to say here is that the Patriots haven't really been tested. 

A big reason the Patriots won the first meeting is because the Bills turned the ball over three times and that's likely going to decide who wins this game. The Bills have been sloppy at times this year: They've had six games with two or more turnovers and they've gone 2-4 in those games. In the seven games where they've turned the ball over one or zero times, they've gone 7-0. 

If Buffalo loses this game, the Patriots will clinch the AFC East title and they'll pull off their first sweep of the Bills since 2019. What this means is that the Bills are going to be desperate and I can't pick against a desperate Josh Allen. 

PICK: Bills 27-20 over Patriots

Green Bay (-2.5) at Denver 

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

For the first time in 10 years, we have two NFL teams who are both on a 10-game winning streak playing in the same week, and somehow, BOTH of them are HOME underdogs. Not only are the Bills favored over the Patriots, but the Packers are favored against the Broncos. 

Once again, this would normally be the part where I second-guess the oddsmakers, but once again, I'm not going to do that. I don't want them coming after me and breaking my kneecaps. In the Patriots-Bills game, the point spread makes some sense because New England hasn't been tested. In this game, it makes sense because the Broncos are a HOUSE OF CARDS that could come tumbling down at any time. The Broncos are currently on what has to be the most improbable 10-game winning streak in NFL history. 

• Eight of their 10 wins have come by one score
• Six of their 10 wins have come by three points or less
• They trailed at one point during the first nine games of the streak
• They trailed by at least 14 points in the fourth quarter of TWO of the games

If you keep playing with fire, you're eventually going to burn down your entire house. At least I think that's how the saying goes. 

Speaking of fire, there probably won't be a lot of offensive fireworks in this game, because it's going to feature two of the best defenses in the NFL. 

• The Broncos are surrendering just 18.1 points per game while the Packers are giving up 19 points per game. Both numbers rank in the top six in the NFL. 
• The Broncos are giving up just 282 yards per game while the Packers are at 287.2 yards. Both numbers rank in the top five in the NFL. 
• The Broncos are giving up less than 90 rushing yards per game while the Packers are holding their opponents to under 190 passing yards per game. 

There is a 50% chance that this game ends with a 3-0 final score. When you have two of the top defenses in the NFL playing each other, I tend to pick the team that has the quarterback who I trust more, and right now, that's Jordan Love. My calendar says it's Toyotathon and if there's one QB you can never pick against during Toyotathon, it's Love. 

The problem for Green Bay is that Toyotahon usually ends early in January, so if they're ever going to win a Super Bowl with Love, the Packers are going to need to ask Toyota to extend their annual marathon sales event into February. 

Love has had two of his best games of the season over the past two weeks: In wins over the Lions and Bears, the Packers QB averaged 234 passing yards and 3.5 touchdown passes per game. The Packers are 8-0-1 this season when Love's QB rating is above 90 and I think we'll see him play another clutch game in Denver. 

That's right, I'm picking against the Broncos and the Patriots this week.The two teams are a combined 20-0 since Sept. 22, so there's a 50% chance this backfires in my face, and it's definitely not good for my fantasy team, because I have the Broncos' defense. 

PICK: Packers 20-16 over Broncos

Detroit (-5.5) at L.A. Rams

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, Fubo -- try for free)

If there is one trade in recent NFL history that still blows my mind, it's the deal that sent Matthew Stafford to Los Angeles and Jared Goff to Detroit. Some people think about the Roman Empire all the time, I think about this trade. The two teams basically decided to do their own version of "Wife Swap," except with quarterbacks, and somehow, it ended up working out well for everyone involved, which never happens in the actual "Wife Swap" show. 

For the Rams, Matthew Stafford has already won more games in L.A. (44) than Goff (42) did during his time with the team. Oh, and Stafford also led the Rams to a Super Bowl win. For Detroit, Goff has already done something that Stafford never did with the Lions and that's lead them to an NFC title game. 

Although each guy has had plenty of success in their new spot, I still have to think that both of them would love to destroy their old team. Just remember, Jared Goff was so mad about the trade when it happened that he hung up the phone on Sean McVay when the Rams coach tried to call him after the deal. There is no anger like "hang up the phone," anger. Goff probably wants to win this game by five touchdowns. 

As for Stafford, he did win a Super Bowl 2021, but he has lost two straight games to the Lions, so you can bet he'd also like to win by five touchdowns. Unfortunately for both guys, I don't think anyone is going to win by five touchdowns. 

The Rams might score five touchdowns though, and that's because their offense is firing on all cylinders. Since their Week 8 bye, the Rams have gone 5-1 and they've been averaged 34 points per game in those six games. And now, Stafford gets to face a Lions defense that's going through its worst rut of the year. Heading into Week 12, the Lions had not given up more than 355 yards in ANY game all season, but all three of their opponents over the past three weeks have topped that number, including the Giants, who put up more than 500 yards in Week 12. This is they type of defense that Matthew Stafford could have a lot of passing success against, which is good news for anyone who's starting Puka Nacua or Davante Adams in their fantasy playoffs this week (I have Davante). 

If the Rams can turn this into a shootout, I'm not sure the Lions will be able to keep up and that's mostly because I expect Goff to be running for his life for all four quarters. The Lions are 4-0 this year in games where Goff doesn't get sacked, but it's going to be hard to keep him clean in a game against a Rams defense that's averaging 2.8 sacks per game, which is the sixth-highest total in the NFL. 

The Rams just don't have a lot of holes right now, which makes it almost impossible to pick against them. 

PICK: Rams 30-23 over Lions

Miami at Pittsburgh (-3)

Monday, 8;15 p.m. ET (ESPN, Fubo -- try for free)

I'll be honest, up until five minutes ago, I was completely undecided on who to take in this game. On one hand, this should be the easiest pick of the entire 2025 season because we have the Dolphins playing in cold weather and there is no team in the history of sports that hates playing in cold weather more than the Miami Dolphins. 

Since the start of the 2017 season, the Dolphins have played 11 games where the kickoff temperature was under 40 degrees and they've won exactly ZERO of them: They've gone 0-11 (2-9 against the spread) and they've lost those 11 games by an average of 15 points per game. Sure, 11 games isn't a huge sample size, but let's be real, you don't need a huge sample size when dealing with cold weather because we have ALL of human history as our sample size and all of human history has shown us that people who don't like cold weather don't ever want to be in cold weather. That's the Dolphins. Both the animal and the team. 

The forecast for this week's game is calling for a kickoff temperature of roughly 26 degrees with a chance of snow and I have to say, that kind of forecast definitely doesn't favor the Dolphins. People in Miami start wearing a jacket outside when the temperature falls below 70 degrees. If the temperature ever hit 26 degrees in Miami, the entire city would cease to exist. 

I'm not sure if the Dolphins have figured out how to win in cold weather, but I think they're starting to figure it out and they've done that by taking Tua Tagovailoa out of the equation. Tua can't have a bad game if you don't let him throw and that's essentially what the Dolphins have been doing over the past few weeks. During Miami's four-game winning streak, Tua has averaged just 157 passing yards per game, but Miami's offense has been moving the ball just fine because the Dolphins have averaged 192.3 rushing yards per game during that same span. 

The Dolphins high-powered rushing attack will now get to face a Steelers defense that has given up more than 200 yards rushing in two straight games. In Week 13, the Bills kept running the same play against the Steelers because it kept working. 

If Mike McDaniel can find a running play that works, I could see him running it 60 straight times. De'Von Achane is going to be the x-factor here. He got banged up with a rib injury against the Jets in Week 14 and if he can't play, that will be a huge hit for Miami, but for now, I'm going to say the Dolphins finally do the impossible and win a cold-weather game. 

PICK: Dolphins 19-16 over Steelers

NFL Week 15 picks: All the rest

Bears 20-16 over Browns
Bengals 27-24 over Ravens
Chiefs 20-17 over Chargers
Giants 23-16 over Commanders
Eagles 24-17 over Raiders
Jaguars 27-13 over Jets
Panthers 22-19 over Saints
Texans 20-13 over Cardinals
49ers 24-13 over Titans
Seahawks 30-16 over Colts
Cowboys 27-24 over Vikings

Last Week

Best pick: Last week, I predicted that the Raiders would score exactly 17 points in a loss to the Broncos, and thanks to Pete Carroll, that might end up going down as my greatest prediction of all time. With three minutes left to play in the game, the Raiders were trailing 24-7, and at that point, my prediction looked borderline dumb, but lucky for me, the Raiders had the Broncos right where they wanted them. I mean, that's the only way to explain what happened next. 

My prediction ended up being 100% right because the Raiders scored 10 points over the final 2:20, including the field goal below, which came on the final play of the game. 

What a kick. Thank you Pete Carroll. Thank you Daniel Carlson. Thank you Las Vegas. 

Worst pick: After watching the Cowboys win three straight games, I fully talked myself into thinking they might possibly be able to win the NFC East, so I decided to pick them to beat the Lions and besides eating nine pieces of pumpkin pie on Thanksgiving, this was my biggest regret from the past two weeks. The Cowboys have struggled on the road this year, so it made no sense to pick them to win in Detroit, but I did it anyway. And I don't need to tell you what happened, because we all know what happened: The Cowboys lost, but Brandon Aubrey did score those 23 key points that I needed for fantasy purposes so I guess it wasn't a total loss. 

Finally, if you guys have ever wondered which teams I'm actually good at picking, I'm going to start sharing that information with you now that we've got 14 full weeks of information. Here's a quick look at my best teams when it comes to picks this year. 

Team I'm 12-1 picking this year (Straight up): Raiders
Teams I'm 11-2 picking this year (Straight up): Seahawks, Broncos, Titans
Longest winning streak: Raiders (12 straight games picked correctly)

Teams I'm the worst at picking: Chiefs (5-8)
Longest losing streak: Bengals, Ravens, Buccaneers (Two straight games picked incorrectly)

Picks Record

Straight up in Week 14: 7-7
SU overall: 132-75-1

Against the spread in Week 14: 10-4
ATS overall: 103-104-1

You can find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter, and if he's not doing one of those things, he's probably setting his fantasy roster for his big playoff game that's coming up this week.