NFL Week 13 picks: Why you should take the points with these five underdogs, including Shedeur Sanders' Browns

There's nothing quite like the pairing of Thanksgiving and the NFL. It's honestly one of my favorite holidays for the simple fact that all we have to do is sit back, watch football, and stuff our faces with turkey, gravy, and the rest of the fixings. Sprinkle a little gambling on top of all that, and we've got ourselves a nice little holiday on our hands. 

And that leads us to what we're thankful for at this time of the year. Personally, I'm thankful that my locks of the week have started to round into form as we head down the stretch run. Since Week 9, I've gone 13-7 ATS with my five locks of the week, which includes a 3-2 record last week. I'll look to keep that positive streak moving as we gear up for a marathon of football where the NFL will be on four times over a five-day stretch.

Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours! 

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2025 record

Locks of the Week ATS: 33-27-0
ATS: 79-99-0
ML: 111-66-1

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts

• Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS | Paramount+)

I think this is an opportunity for the Texans to slam on the panic button surrounding the Colts. Houston's defense is playing as well as any unit in the NFL right now. They rank first in the NFL in total yards per game allowed (264.3) and passer rating allowed (72.2), along with ranking second in points per game allowed (16.5). Meanwhile, Daniel Jones hasn't been as lights out as he was to begin the season. Over his last three starts, Jones has an 83.0 passer rating with five total touchdowns and seven turnovers compared to the 109.5 passer rating, 17 total touchdowns, and three turnovers in the eight games before that. This is the type of defense that can highlight the recent lull from Jones. While I think Indy can find a way to pull this out at home, it'll be within the number, and we'll be asking a lot of questions about this team's ceiling coming out of the contest. 

Projected score: Colts 24, Texans 20
The pick: Texans +4.5

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers

• Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS | Paramount+)

The Raiders are in a bad way, falling to 2-9 on the season last week following a loss to the Browns, which led to the firing of offensive coordinator Chip Kelly. It's possible that this move provides a momentary boost for the unit in this divisional matchup, but this pick has more to do with questions surrounding the Chargers than anything else. Let's not forget that this team came out extraordinarily flat in a 35-6 loss to the Jaguars before the Week 12 bye. While they'll be well-rested for this game, it doesn't necessarily mean Justin Herbert will be better protected. They are still without starting left tackle Joe Alt for the year, and Herbert's numbers have dipped in his absence. Without Alt, Herbert is averaging 6.4 yards per attempt and has eight touchdowns with six interceptions compared to the 8.3 yards per attempt average, 11 touchdowns, and three interceptions with him. Las Vegas has a pass rusher led by Maxx Crosby who can continue to give Herbert fits, so this stays within a double-digit game. 

Projected score: Chargers 23, Raiders 17
The pick: Raiders +9.5

Prisco's Week 13 NFL picks: Jordan Love leads Packers over Lions, Chiefs top Cowboys in high-scoring game

Pete Prisco

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

• Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC | Fubo, try for free)

Something just feels off with the Baltimore Ravens. Yes, they've won five straight after beginning the year 1-5 and are now atop the AFC North standings, but they seem a bit disjointed in recent weeks. Specifically, Lamar Jackson hasn't been as prolific as we've grown accustomed to, tallying zero touchdowns and two giveaways over the last two weeks. While Cincinnati's defense is one of the worst units in the NFL this season, they played the Patriots well last week, providing a glimmer of hope that they can be something close to serviceable down the stretch. If they provide some resistance, that'll help Joe Burrow immensely as he makes his return to action for the first time since suffering his turf toe injury. With Ja'Marr Chase back in the fold as well, the Bengals have an offense that can keep this divisional matchup close. In his career, Burrow is 17-3 ATS as an underdog of three or more points. 

Projected score: Ravens 27, Bengals 21
The pick: Bengals +7

San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland Browns

• Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS | Paramount+)

If it were up to Brock Purdy, the 49ers would've lost in Week 12. The 49ers quarterback tossed three first-half interceptions against the Panthers on Monday night, but was bailed out by his defense that allowed just three points off those turnovers en route to a win. And Purdy's struggles go beyond just this game as he's thrown seven interceptions in four starts this season overall. Now, he's asked to shake that off against a Browns defense that has been utterly dominant this season and is coming off a 10-sack performance in Week 12 against the Raiders. On the year, the unit is top three in the league in yards per game allowed (273.0), passing yards per game allowed (170.7), sacks (42), and third-down efficiency (34.5% opponent conversion rate). If Cleveland continues to play at that level, Purdy's issues could persist and keep the Browns within range of an upset. 

Projected score: 49ers 23, Browns 20
The pick: Browns +6

New York Giants at New England Patriots

• Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN | Fubo, try for free)

The Patriots enter Week 13 atop the AFC as the No. 1 seed in the conference and the first club to reach 10 wins on the year. While they were able to notch a ninth straight win over the Bengals last week, it came at a cost. The entire left side of their offensive line went down due to injury, and both left tackle Will Campbell and left guard Jared Wilson are expected to miss time, including Monday's contest. One of the strengths of New York this season has been its front, which is headlined by Brian Burns (13 sacks). With reserves set to man Drake Maye's blindside, there's an opportunity for Burns, Abdul Carter, and others to tee off and throw the Patriots offense off the track. If they can do that, it'll help whoever is under center for them (Jameis Winston or Jaxson Dart) stay within the spread. 

Projected score: Patriots 24, Giants 17
The pick: Giants +7.5

Rest of the bunch

Packers at Lions (Thursday)
Projected score: Lions 27, Packers 24
The pick: Lions -2.5

Chiefs at Cowboys (Thursday)
Projected score: Chiefs 27, Cowboys 23
The pick: Chiefs -3

Bears at Eagles (Friday)
Projected score: Bears 24, Eagles 21
The pick: Bears +7

Jaguars at Titans
Projected score: Jaguars 27, Titans 17
The pick: Jaguars -6.5

Saints at Dolphins
Projected score: Dolphins 28, Saints 20
The pick: Dolphins -6

Falcons at Jets
Projected score: Falcons 24, Jets 17
The pick: Falcons -2.5

Cardinals at Buccaneers
Projected score: Cardinals 24, Buccaneers 21
The pick: Cardinals +3

Rams at Panthers
Projected score: Rams 30, Panthers 17
The pick: Rams -10.5

Vikings at Seahawks
Projected score: Seahawks 27, Vikings 14
The pick: Seahawks -10.5

Bills at Steelers
Projected score: Bills 30, Steelers 21
The pick: Bills -3.5

Broncos at Commanders
Projected score: Broncos 27, Commanders 20
The pick: Broncos -6.5