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We start things off here with some unfortunate news: It's not even Thanksgiving yet and we already have one team eliminated from division title contention, and to no one's surprise, that team is the Tennessee Titans. 

I hate to say this Titans fans, but it feels like your team is a year away from being three years away, so I'll be sure to look for you down the road at some point when we start talking about the 2029 playoffs. Every other team is mathematically alive to win their division. Even the Jets. And the Giants, for that matter. The dream of a Subway Super Bowl is still alive! Well, it's not my dream, but I'm sure it's someone's dream. 

My dream is to see a week where I get all my picks right. Can I do it this week? Let's get to the Week 12 picks and find out. 

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NFL Week 12 picks

Buffalo (7-3) at Houston (5-5)

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime Video)

I don't know how it's possible, but the biggest winner of Week 12 might actually be the Hallmark Channel. And yes, I did mention the Hallmark Channel last week, and yes, I will probably mention them again several times between now and Christmas, and no, the Hallmark Channel does NOT pay me every time I mention them (but if they want to send DVD copies of all their Christmas movies, I will gladly take that). Anyway, after making a Chiefs-themed Christmas movie last year, the Hallmark Channel is back with a BILLS-THEMED movie this year and it's coming out on Saturday (Nov. 22). 

There's is a 90% chance I'll be live-tweeting that entire movie. 

The point here is that Hallmark Christmas magic is definitely real because how else can you explain that this movie is coming out in a week where everyone will be talking about the Bills. If Amazon was smart, they'd buy the rights to the movie so that they could show it immediately after Thursday's game. 

I don't think Josh Allen is in the movie, but that's because he's been too busy scoring touchdowns. The last time we saw him on the field came on Sunday against the Buccaneers and all he did was total SIX TOUCHDOWNS. He had three rushing touchdowns and three passing touchdowns along with more than 300 passing yards, which marks just the second time in NFL history that a player has hit all of those numbers. The only other time it happened came last year and it was also Allen. The man is unstoppable. 

Allen put up those numbers despite the fact that he was throwing to several receivers that most NFL fans have never heard of. Quick: Who was the Bills leading receiver on Sunday? You could ask 10,000 fans that question and I don't think anyone outside of Buffalo would know the answer (The answer is Tyrell Shavers, who caught four passes for 90 yards). In the Bills' first nine games, Shavers had 82 total receiving yards. Allen totaled six touchdowns playing with a guy who didn't even have 100 yards yet on the SEASON. 

As good as Allen has been, this is going to be arguably the stiffest test he's faced from an opposing defense all season. The Texans defense has given up the fewest yards per game this year (258.1) and the fewest points per game (16.3). They have the third-most interceptions and they've embarrassed almost every QB they've faced. 

The Texans are a dangerous team -- all five of their losses have come by one score -- and they're going to be desperate, because at 5-5, they can't afford to lose very many more games. I'm not sure who the QB will be for Houston in this game because CJ Stroud has missed two straight weeks with a concussion, but I'm not sure it will matter, because when you're facing Buffalo, the only thing you need a QB for is to hand the ball off (The Bills are surrendering 153 rushing yards per game this year, which is the second-worst number in the NFL). 

I think the Texans will keep this close, but I can't pick against Allen, who has never lost a Thursday game in his career. He's 8-0 all-time, which is the most wins in NFL history without a loss. I also can't pick against a team that has a Hallmark Christmas movie coming out this week.

PICK: Bills 20-17 over Texans | Texans +5.5 | Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Indianapolis (8-2) at Kansas City (5-5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

I wasn't around to witness the fall of the Roman empire, but I have watched the Chiefs play this year and I think I now know how everyone felt back then. The Romans hung around for nearly 500 years before things ended and I feel like that's where we are with the Chiefs, who I think have won 500 straight division titles. At least it feels that way. 

The Chiefs have been so good for so long that I think we all just assumed that they would make the playoffs every year as long as Patrick Mahomes is their quarterback, but that doesn't seem like such a lock anymore. 

At 5-5, not only are the Chiefs in the ninth spot in the AFC, but if you look at the three teams currently in the AFC wild card spots -- the Bills, Chargers and Jaguars -- they all have one thing in common: They all beat the Chiefs this year. That's a giant negative for the Chiefs' playoff chances because the first tiebreaker is head-to-head (The Chiefs could still win that tiebreaker against the Chargers, but it's unlikely). 

The Chiefs biggest problem is that they're not winning the games that they're famous for winning. Last year, the Chiefs went 12-0 in one score games on their way to an appearance in the Super Bowl. This year, they're 0-5 in one-score games, including three losses that have come by just three points. 

The Chiefs also have a host of other problems this year. On defense, they can't stop anyone on third down. Kansas City's opponents have converted 41.6% of their third down attempts, which ranks 23rd overall in the NFL and just slightly ahead of the Commanders. If you've watched the Commanders play a single game this year, then you know that being ranked near them in any defensive stat is a bad thing. 

Another problem for the Chiefs is that they haven't been good at running the ball, especially over the past two weeks. They got held under 80 yards rushing in their losses to the Bills (79) and Broncos (62) and they're now 0-3 on the season when they don't rush for at least 100 yards. Isiah Pacheco is banged up, which leaves Kareem Hunt as the only healthy option and he hasn't topped 60 yards in a single game this year. Patrick Mahomes is known for making magic, but even if needs at least a teeny tiny bit of help and he's not getting it. 

The one thing the Chiefs have done well this year is dominate at home, which is where this game is being played. In their five home games, the Chiefs have gone 4-1 while averaging 28.6 points per game, which is a huge step up from playing on the road, where they've gone 1-4 while averaging just 22.2 points per game. That's a difference of six points per game. 

I hate picking against the Chiefs at home, but I think I have to do it here. The Colts have a chance to roll into Kansas City and deliver a knockout blow to the Chiefs' division title chances while also putting their playoff hopes on life support. The Colts will be coming into this game off a bye, which means that the NFL's leading rusher, Jonathan Taylor, will have had some time to rest his legs, and I'm guessing he needed that rest, because he ran for 244 yards the last time he was on the field. 

Again, and I can't repeat this enough, I hate picking against the Chiefs at home, but I can't pick against the Colts here. Indiana Jones conquers Kansas City. 

PICK: Colts 27-24 over Chiefs | Colts +3.5 | Odds via BetMGM

Jacksonville (6-4) at Arizona (3-7)

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

If you didn't get to watch the Jaguars on Sunday -- and I'm guessing you didn't because their game was only shown to about 2.8% of the country -- they pulled off one of the most dominant wins of the season by any team. I don't think I've ever use the words "Jaguars" and "dominant" in the same sentence before, but that's exactly what they were in their 35-6 win over the Chargers.  

Liam Coen has apparently figured out that the best way to win in Jacksonville is by taking the games out of Trevor Lawrence's hands. The Jags are 0-3 this season when Lawrence throws for more than 225 yards, but 6-1 when he's held under that number. Basically, as long as the Jaguars are able to run the ball, they can win. They're 4-0 this season when they top 150 rushing yards, and now, they have the two-headed rushing monster of Travis Etienne Jr. and Bhayshul Tuten, a fourth-round rookie who seems to improve every week. In the win over the Chargers, Tuten averaged nearly five yards per carry on 15 rushes. The problem for the Jags is that Tuten injured his ankle and even if he plays, he likely won't be at full speed. If the Jags can't move the ball on the ground, that means putting the game in the hands of Lawrence, and well, we know how that goes. 

Although the Jaguars defense embarrassed the Chargers, Jacksonville has had one weakness this season and that's stopping the pass. The Jags are surrendering 236.9 passing yards per game, which is the seventh-worst number in the NFL. In Week 10, they let Davis Mills throw for nearly 300 yards. Mills had not started an NFL game in three years before torching the Jaguars, so any QB is capable of doing anything against this defense. 

You know who loves to throw the ball? The Arizona Cardinals. Jacoby Brissett is coming off a game where he just completed an NFL record 47 PASSES. To put that in perspective, Trevor Lawrence hasn't even attempted 47 passes in his past two games combined. Also, the Jaguars have been burned by tight ends this year, which isn't a good thing when you're about to face Trey McBride. 

After pulling off an absolute shocker against the Chargers, the most Jaguars thing ever would be to go out and lose this game, so I'm going to go ahead say the Jaguars do the most Jaguars thing ever. 

PICK: Cardinals 23-20 over Jaguars | Cardinals + 2.5 | Odds via Caesars Sportsbook, where new users get 20 100% profit boosts with the code CBS20X:

Tampa Bay (6-4) at L.A. Rams (8-2)

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, Fubo -- try for free)

With Thanksgiving right around the corner, I'm not sure what the Buccaneers are thankful for this year, but I can tell you what they're NOT thankful for and that's being forced to play road games in November. Since the start of the 2023 season, the Bucs have played six November road games and they've gone 1-5. I'm not sure who's in charge of making schedule requests for the Bucs, but that person should go ahead and ask the NFL right now to not schedule the Bucs for any November road games in 2026 ... or ever again for that matter. 

I think what I'm trying to say here is that the Buccaneers might be in trouble. The last time we saw them on the field, they were giving up six touchdowns to Josh Allen. I'm only mentioning that because Matthew Stafford might throw for six on Sunday. The Bucs are surrendering 241.6 passing yards per game this year, which is the sixth-worst number in the NFL. They're also giving up 7.6 yards per pass ATTEMPT, which is tied for the fifth-worst, ranking only ahead of the Cowboys, Commanders, Bengals and Bears. Those are three of the four worst defenses in the league this year. 

When you're struggling to stop the pass, the last guy you want to be facing is Matthew Stafford, who leads the NFL in touchdown passes with 27 and ranks fifth overall in passing yards (2,557). The Bucs best chance to win is probably to force a few turnovers, but that's not going to happen because Stafford doesn't turn the ball over. In his past seven games, Stafford has thrown 22 touchdown passes and ZERO interceptions. 

The Buccaneers are at the tail end of a brutal three-game gauntlet that has seen them face the Patriots, Bills, and now, the Rams. Drake Maye threw for 270 yards and two touchdowns in a New England win. Josh Allen threw for 317 yards and totaled six touchdowns in a Buffalo win. And now, Matthew Stafford gets a crack at the Bucs' defense and things could get ugly for Tampa Bay. 

In somewhat related news, I feel like the Bucs' defense should get an MVP vote this year, because after facing all three of those quarterbacks, they'll have a better idea than anyone who should win. 

As for my pick, the Bucs are playing a November game on the road. I think we all know who I'm taking. 

PICK: Rams 30-23 over Buccaneers | Rams -6.5 | Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Carolina (6-5) at San Francisco (7-4)

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, Fubo -- try for free)

On paper, this feels like a game that the Panthers have zero chance to win, but I also thought there was a zero chance that Bryce Young would set a franchise record for most passing yards last week against the best passing defense in football, but that happened, so I'm not going to rule anything out. 

If you didn't watch the Panthers play in Week 11, Young threw for 448 yards and three touchdowns in a 30-27 overtime win over the Falcons. I'll be honest, I have no idea where this performance came from. In his seven games before Week 11, Young hadn't topped 200 YARDS a single time and he had never thrown for more than 330 yards at any point in his entire career. 

So the big question now is this: Did something finally click for Young or is this like the time where Matt Flynn threw for 480 yards while playing for the Packers, but then never got close to hitting that number ever again? 

The Panthers better hope it's that first one because they have the third-most difficult remaining strength of schedule. Their final six games are absolutely brutal: at 49ers, Rams, at Saints, Buccaneers, Seahawks, at Buccaneers. The only easy game in there is against the Saints, but you can't even call that easy because the Saints already beat Carolina once this season. 

This week, Young will get to face a 49ers defense that just gave up 452 passing yards to Jacoby Brissett, so maybe he can top 400 yards again.  On the flip side, Young has never won a prime time game in his career (he's 0-2), and now, he has to face a suddenly rejuvenated 49ers team. San Francisco just got Brock Purdy back and the team responded to that by destroying the Cardinals, 41-22. Mac Jones was good while he was in, but Purdy runs the offense in a much more efficient manner. 

It's been almost 10 years since we've had to take the Panthers seriously as a playoff contender, but if they win this game, we'll have to start taking them seriously. If you would have told me before the season started that the CAROLINA PANTHERS would have a chance to be in first place after Week 12, I would have handed you a long list of illegal drugs and asked how many of them you were taking. However, that's exactly where we are. If the Panthers beat the 49ers and the Bucs lose to the Rams, Carolina WILL BE IN FIRST PLACE. 

I'm not ready to live in a world where the Panthers could be in first place. I don't think any of us are. 

PICK: 49ers 31-20 over Panthers | 49ers -6.5 | Odds via Caesars Sportsbook, where new users get 20 100% profit boosts with the code CBS20X:

NFL Week 12 picks: All the rest

Bears 20-16 over Steelers
Patriots 31-24 over Bengals
Lions 34-24 over Giants
Packers 27-20 over Vikings
Seahawks 34-13 over Titans
Ravens 27-17 over Jets
Browns 19-16 over Raiders
Eagles 27-24 over Cowboys
Falcons 24-17 over Saints
BYES: Broncos, Dolphins, Chargers, Commanders

Last Week

Best pick: Last week, I predicted that Sam Darnold would have a total meltdown in a loss to the Rams and guess what happened? Sam Darnold had a total meltdown in a loss to the Rams. Darnold threw four interceptions against the Rams, marking the first time since 2019 that he's thrown four picks in a game. You might remember that 2019 game, because it's somewhat famous. 

I'm not sure if Darnold saw ghosts on Sunday, but if he did, I'm guessing it was the Ghost of Christmas future showing him how the Seahawks' season is going to end if he doesn't stop throwing interceptions. Hint: Not well.

Worst pick: Last week, I talked myself into taking the Vikings over the Bears and I have no idea why. For some reason, I keep putting all my faith in J.J. McCarthy even though I'm pretty sure his own teammates don't even have any faith in him at this point. Justin Jefferson, who never shows visual frustration, was ready to smash his helmet into pieces on Sunday. 

It's a good thing the trade deadline has already passed, because if it hadn't, I'm pretty sure Jefferson would have tried to trade himself at halftime just so he didn't have to try to catch another pass from McCarthy. 

Finally, if you guys have ever wondered which teams I'm actually good at picking, I'm going to start sharing that information with you now that we've got 11 full weeks of information. Here's a quick look at my best teams when it comes to picks this year. 

Teams I'm 9-1 picking this year (Straight up): Colts, Titans, Raiders
Longest winning streak: Raiders (Nine straight games picked correctly)

Teams I'm the worst at picking: Lions (4-6), Falcons (4-6), Vikings (4-6), Chiefs (4-6)
Longest losing streak: Bengals, Panthers, Vikings (Three straight games picked incorrectly) 

Picks Record

Straight up in Week 11: 9-6
SU overall: 104-59-1

Against the spread in Week 11: 6-9
ATS overall: 75-89

You can find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter, and if he's not doing one of those things, he's probably clearing his Saturday schedule so he can spend the entire day preparing to watch the Bills' Christmas movie on the Hallmark Channel.