NFL Week 12 early odds: 5-5 Chiefs favored over 8-2 Colts in must-win game; Cowboys home underdogs

Week 11 had a flair for the dramatics. Out of the gate, Sunday kicked off with an overtime bout between the Commanders and Dolphins from Madrid, and was followed up with some wild finishes in the early afternoon window. Carolina outlasted Atlanta in overtime thanks to a record-setting day from Bryce Young, while Chicago netted a game-winning field goal as time expired against Minnesota, as did Houston over Tennessee. 

As the day went on, the late window was dominated by the Rams outlasting the Seahawks in a pivotal NFC West showdown where L.A. baited Sam Darnold into four interceptions. Meanwhile, the Kansas City Chiefs are back to .500 on the year after falling to the Broncos. 

Needless to say, storylines are pouring out of Week 11 from every direction, and it should have a direct impact on Week 12. As we look forward to the new week, there are some intriguing matchups, including Colts-Chiefs, Eagles-Cowboys and Bucs-Rams. Below, we'll take our first glimpse of Week 12 from a betting perspective and see the early lines of how the oddsmakers are handicapping this slate.

Note: Denver, Miami, Los Angeles (Chargers) and Washington are on the bye. 

Week 12 early odds

All lines via FanDuel Sportsbook, where new users get $150 in bonus bets with a winning $5 bet; all games on Sunday unless noted)

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Tyler Sullivan

Notable movement, trends

Bills at Texans (Thursday)

Buffalo opened as a 2.5-point favorite in this matchup, but that spread has since crossed key numbers in favor of the Bills, who are now a 3.5-point road favorite. It's unclear if C.J. Stroud, who missed Week 11 as he remains in concussion protocol, will be cleared for this matchup, which could lead to another start for Davis Mills. Houston barely was able to escape its matchup with Tennessee, needing a game-winning field goal at the buzzer. When you pair that with Josh Allen's six-touchdown day against Tampa Bay, that could be what has helped swing this line. The Bills are 2-2 ATS as a road favorite this season, and this will be the first time in 2025 that Houston will be a home underdog. Overall, the Texans are 3-2 ATS at NRG Stadium. 

Colts at Chiefs

Faith may be beginning to fade with the Chiefs. K.C. opened as a 4.5-point favorite, but that number has since started to tick toward Indy. Andy Reid's club is still favored, but the line has dropped a full point to 3.5. This comes after the club dropped back down to .500 on the year with a loss in Denver to the Broncos. However, the Chiefs have fared much better at home this season as opposed to being on the road, owning a 4-1 ATS record at Arrowhead Stadium. Week 12 will be a tough task, as they square off against a Colts team that is coming off its bye. Indianapolis is 6-3-1 ATS this season overall, but is just 2-2 ATS on the road. 

Vikings at Packers

Green Bay has held as a 6.5-point favorite coming out of Sunday's action. The Packers weren't burned by it this time around, but they once again played down to their competition and narrowly defeated the Giants. They enter Week 12 with a 3-7 ATS record, and that 30% cover rate is tied for the second-lowest in the NFL. They are slightly better at home (2-3 ATS), but they'll need to dial it in a little more to be trusted against the number. That said, Minnesota has been up-and-down with J.J. McCarthy under center and is coming off a loss to the Bears in Week 11. The Vikings are 4-6 ATS on the year and 2-1 ATS on the road.

Patriots at Bengals

New England opened as a 6.5-point road favorite over Cincinnati, and that has since moved up a half-point with them surrendering the full touchdown. The Patriots are currently undefeated on the road with a 5-0 ATS record and an average margin of victory sitting at 7.6 points. Meanwhile, Cincinnati is 2-3 ATS at home in 2025. The big storyline surrounding the Bengals will be the status of star wideout Ja'Marr Chase, who could face punishment from the league office for his alleged spitting on Steelers defensive back Jalen Ramsey on Sunday. If he is suspended for this game, that could drive the line even further toward the Patriots. 

Giants at Lions

Detroit laid an egg on Sunday night as the offense couldn't do anything against Philadelphia's stout defense. Even in the aftermath of that loss, however, the odds are unwavering. The Lions remain a sizable favorite at home over the Giants, laying 10.5 points. While the offense went silent in Week 11, the Lions have typically dominated at Ford Field and are 3-1 ATS with an average margin of victory sitting at 16.8 points. As for the Giants, they are 3-3 ATS on the road this year, and the status of Jaxson Dart (concussion) will be worth monitoring after he missed Sunday's loss to Green Bay. 

Steelers at Bears

Mason Rudolph could end up being Pittsburgh's starter for this matchup after Aaron Rodgers left Sunday's win over the Bengals with a left wrist injury. With that uncertainty, Chicago's advantage has only grown, sitting as a 3-point favorite after the line initially opened with them laying just 1.5 points. The Steelers have struggled on the road this season, covering just one of their four matchups. As for the Bears, who currently sit atop the NFC North, they are a pedestrian 2-2 ATS at Soldier Field. 

Seahawks at Titans

Sam Darnold turned into a pumpkin against Los Angeles on Sunday, tossing four interceptions in the losing effort. Despite that ugly showing, however, they are still monster road favorites as they gear up for a trip to Nashville. Seattle is a 12.5-point favorite as they look to stay undefeated against the number on the road (5-0 ATS). As for Tennessee, they took the Texans down to the wire, but ultimately were not able to pull off the upset. At Nissan Stadium this season, the Titans are 2-3 ATS and have an average margin of victory sitting at -12.6. 

Jets at Ravens

Baltimore was firmly on upset alert against the Browns on Sunday, but found a way to fend off its division rival. Now, they are back to .500 on the year after ripping off four straight wins, and are looking to make it five in a row in Week 12 against New York. The Ravens are the biggest favorite in Week 12 at the moment, as they are laying 14.5 points to the Jets. New York is coming off its bye in Week 11 and looking to maintain its winning ATS road record, coming into this matchup 2-1-1 ATS away from MetLife Stadium this season. 

Browns at Raiders

Las Vegas still has its Week 11 matchup on Monday to deal with, so this line could swing after that matchup. That said, the Raiders have bumped up to a 3-point favorite after initially laying 2.5 at the open. That shift up to a full field goal could be due to Browns starter Dillon Gabriel going down amid Sunday's loss to Baltimore due to a concussion. That thrust fellow rookie Shedeur Sanders in under center, and the Colorado product didn't impress much. Cleveland is a league-worst 0-5 ATS on the road in 2025. 

Jaguars at Cardinals

This line has been turned on its head. At the open, Arizona was the slight 1.5-point favorite, but coming out of Sunday's action, they are now home underdogs. Jacksonville is laying 2.5 points as the road favorite. The Jaguars failed to cover the only other instance this season they were favored on the road, and are just 1-3 ATS away from Jacksonville overall. While that doesn't exactly instill a ton of confidence, Arizona has struggled mightily at home. They are tied for a league-low 20% cover rate at home (1-4 ATS), which includes a 1-2 ATS record as a home underdog. 

Falcons at Saints

Atlanta opened as a 2.5-point favorite, and that number has held through Week 11, despite the club falling to the Carolina Panthers. The Falcons are currently on a five-game losing streak, during which they are giving up an average of 27.8 points per game. On top of that, they could be looking to Kirk Cousins for this matchup after Michael Penix Jr. left Sunday due to injury. Still, the Saints are getting points, which makes it hard to blame the books when looking at their production this season. The club is 3-7 ATS, and that 30% cover rate is tied for the second-lowest in the NFL. The Saints are also tied for a league-worst 1-4 ATS record at home. 

Eagles at Cowboys

Philadelphia has opened as a 3.5-point favorite on the road over the Cowboys. Of course, Dallas still has its Monday night matchup to play, so this number could move one way or another depending on how that contest with the Raiders unfolds. Even with that in mind, it's hard not to be impressed by what Philly is doing on the defensive side of the ball, coming off back-to-back outings against the Packers and Lions, where they've completely stalled out their offenses. That's helped them to a 7-3 ATS record on the year. That includes a 4-1 ATS record on the road and a 3-1 ATS mark as a road favorite. 

Buccaneers at Rams

Fresh off a key win over the Seahawks, the Rams are 6.5-point home favorites over the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay is looking to rebound following a loss to the Bills on Sunday, where it allowed Josh Allen to pile up six total touchdowns. The Bucs have an equally tough task against Matthew Stafford, who is playing himself into the MVP conversation as one of the favorites for the award. This season, the Rams are 3-2 ATS at SoFi Stadium, while the Buccaneers are 4-2 ATS on the road, so something will need to give in this heavyweight NFC matchup. 

Panthers at 49ers (Monday)

Even after Bryce Young threw for 448 yards and three touchdowns, the oddsmakers still love the Niners. In fact, San Francisco is up to a 7-point favorite after initially laying 6.5 at the open. That's likely due to Brock Purdy looking strong in his return to action and the club posting a season-high 41 points. Even after all the injuries that plagued them, the 49ers are 7-4 on the season straight up. While that's impressive, they need to be better against the number as they are just 1-3 ATS at home this season. Meanwhile, Carolina is 4-2 ATS on the road.