San Francisco 49ers play New England Patriots During NFL Game At Levi's Stadium
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If there's one thing that makes the NFL so exciting every year, it's the fact that it's one of the most unpredictable sports on the planet. If your favorite team came in last place in its division last year that doesn't really matter, because there's always a chance it could turn things around this year. 

Since 2015, there have been a total of 10 teams that have gone worst to first by winning a division title one year after finishing in last place. That's an average of just over one per year. That average has actually held pretty firm over the past two decades: Since the NFL realigned its divisions in 2002, there have been 29 teams that have gone from worst to first, which is an average of 1.26 teams per year over that 23-season span. 

Basically, NFL history says that at least one team is going to go from worst to first this year. With that in mind, we're going to rank the eight last-place finishers from 2024 to find out who has the best chance to pull off a worst-to-first run in 2025. 

(All division odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)

8. Cleveland Browns

2024 record: 3-14
Odds to win AFC North: +3500

The biggest problem for the Browns is that they're stuck playing one of the most difficult divisions in the NFL. The AFC North has three Super Bowl contenders, and then there's the Browns. Based on that fact alone, it's hard to imagine a scenario where the Browns win the the division this year. As a matter of fact, it's hard to envision a scenario where they even finish above .500. 

You never want to say a team has zero chance of winning its division in the always unpredictable NFL, but it really feels like the Browns have zero chance of winning the division. They're going to be starting a 40-year-old quarterback (Joe Flacco) who hasn't started more than 10 games in a single season in eight years. If something happens to him, then they'll be turning to one of their two rookie quarterbacks (Dillon Gabriel or Shedeur Sanders). 

Since I ranked them last on this list, that means I'm 99.9% sure they won't win the division this year. As a matter of fact, I'm so confident they won't finish in first place that if it does happen, I will buy a Bernie Kosar jersey and wear it every Sunday for an entire year. 

The Browns haven't won a division title since 1989 and unfortunately for everyone under the age of 36, this doesn't feel like the year where you're going to see the first division title of your lifetime. 

Fun fact: Since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970, the Browns have won five division titles, but they've never gone from worst to first and it's probably a safe bet that drought will continue in 2025. 

7. New Orleans Saints

2024 record: 5-12
Odds to win NFC South: +1300

It took all of training camp, but Saints coach Kellen Moore finally named a starting QB for Week 1 and the lucky winner of the QB battle was Spencer Rattler. Here's what I know about Rattler: I watched him start six games for the Saints last year and New Orleans won exactly zero of those games. I'm not pinning all the blame on Rattler, but he threw more interceptions (5) than touchdowns (3) and he averaged less than 200 yards passing per game. This offense feels like it's going to struggle at the beginning of the season and I don't see things really improving after that. 

For the Saints to have just an inkling of a chance to win the division, everything would have to go perfectly this season, but the problem there is that nothing ever goes perfectly in the NFL. The only reason the Saints are ranked ahead of the Browns is because New Orleans plays in a much easier division.

Fun fact: The last time the Saints went from worst to first came in 2009 and they also won the Super Bowl, making them one of just two teams -- along with the 2017 Eagles -- over the past 20 years to win a Super Bowl in the same season where they went worst to first. 

6. Tennessee Titans

2024 record: 3-14
Odds to win AFC South: +700

The Titans have quietly improved their roster this offseason by adding several key players on offense like Van Jefferson, Tyler Lockett, Dan Moore and Kevin Zeitler. Oh, and they also used the No. 1 overall pick in the draft on Cameron Ward. Not to mention, Brian Callahan also beefed up his defense by adding several potential starters like Cody Barton, Dre'mont Jones and Xavier Woods. 

This team should be better than it was last year, but that's not saying much, considering the Titans won just three games last year. If the Titans are going to have any shot at the playoffs, they're going to need a huge season from Ward, which is completely possible. The last team to go from worst to first in the NFL came in 2023 when the Houston Texans did it and the Titans have a few things in common with them. For one, they have a much-hyped rookie QB: The Texans had CJ Stroud while the Titans have Ward. 

The Titans could also turn into this year's Commanders. Although Washington didn't win the NFC East last year, it did make it to the conference title game with a rookie QB in Jayden Daniels. Basically, this entire season is going to hinge on how well Ward plays and although he might shine at times, it's hard to imagine Tennessee coming away with a division title. 

Fun fact: If history is any indication, the Titans are in trouble, because they've NEVER gone worst to first in franchise history, and that even includes their 37 seasons as the Houston Oilers. Since moving to Tennessee in 1997, they've never even made the playoff the season after finishing in last place. 

5. New York Giants

2024 record: 3-14
Odds to win NFC East: +2200

If there's any division where a team can pull off a worst-to-first run, it's definitely the NFC East. Over the past 15 years, there have been 16 worst-to-first teams in the NFL and SIX of them have come from the NFC East. This division hasn't had a repeat winner since 2004, so it's ripe for the taking. 

The Giants have built a sturdy roster, especially on defense, where they've made some huge additions like CB Paulson Adebo, S Jevon Holland and of course, Abdul Carter, the No. 3 overall pick from the 2025 NFL Draft. The Giants will also have Russell Wilson at quarterback, which should give them a huge step up in QB play compared to what they've had over the past few seasons. 

Eight of the Giants' 14 losses were by one score or less last season, so it feels like this team could be on the cusp of turning things around. Also, let's not forget that they are destined to make the playoffs this year. 

With the Eagles and Commanders both in the NFC East, winning the division won't be easy, but the Giants do feel like a team that could compete for a wild card spot. 

Fun fact: If anyone can go from worst to first, it's the Giants. For one, they play in a division where there hasn't been a repeat champion in 21 years. The last time happened came in 2004 when the Eagles won the division for the fourth straight season. That year is also notable, because it started the last worst-to-first run in franchise history for the Giants. After finishing in last in 2004, they bounced back to win the division in 2005. 

4. Las Vegas Raiders

2024 record: 4-13
Odds to win AFC West: +1200

The Raiders might be the most underrated team in the NFL heading into the 2025 season. Yes, they only won four games last season, but now they have Pete Carroll and Pete Carroll doesn't lose. During his 14 years in Seattle, he went to the playoffs 10 times, went to the Super Bowl twice and finished with a winning record in 11 of his 14 seasons. This guy only knows success. Carroll took over a five-win Seahawks team in 2010 and made the playoffs during his first year on the job. 

One of Raiders' biggest issues last year was at quarterback and Carroll has fixed that problem by bringing in someone he's extremely familiar with in Geno Smith. Carroll loves to win games by letting his defense and rushing attack carry the team and he's built a roster that should be able to help him do that. 

Although I have faith in Carroll, I couldn't put the Raiders any higher on this list because they're in division impossible. They might be able to get out of the cellar this year, but it's hard to see them overtaking the Broncos AND the Chargers AND the Chiefs. 

Fun fact: The Raiders have never gone from worst to first, and based on how stacked the AFC West is this year, it's going to be tough to end that drought in 2025.

3. Chicago Bears

2024 record: 5-12
Odds to win NFC North: +550

The Lions went 15-2 last season, which I feel like I have to mention here because the Bears stole Detroit's offensive coordinator (Ben Johnson) and hired him as their coach. When you look at what Johnson did in Detroit last season, a big reason his offense was so successful is because they had one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. So what did the Bears do this offseason? They went out and made it a priority to improve the line. They made trades for Joe Thuney and Jonah Jackson, then went out and signed Drew Dalman in free agency. 

Caleb Williams got sacked 68 times last year, which was the most in the NFL, but Johnson won't let that happen. He'll make sure the Bears are leaning on their rushing attack so that Williams doesn't get killed. This team should be much better than it was in 2025, but does that mean they can win the division? Probably not. 

The problem for the Bears is that they have a brutal schedule. They play 11 games against teams that finished above .500 last season, which is the second-most in the NFL. They play the AFC North and NFC East on top of their six division games. This team could certainly finish above .500, but it's hard to see them winning a loaded NFC North. 

Fun fact: Of all the teams on this list, the Bears were the most recent one to go from worst to first. After finishing 5-11 in 2017, they rebounded by winning the NFC North in 2018 with a 12-4 record. 

2. New England Patriots

2024 record: 4-13
Odds to win AFC East: +550

If there's anyone out there who can figure out how to topple the Bills and win the AFC East, it's Mike Vrabel. During his last stint as a coach in Tennessee, Vrabel made the playoffs three times in six seasons even though he never had a franchise QB, something he seems to have in New England with Drake Maye. 

Vrabel's most impressive accomplishment arguably came in 2021 when the Titans earned the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC. To put that in perspective, since Patrick Mahomes' first year as a starter in 2018, only three coaches have led their team to a No. 1 overall seed in the AFC: Andy Reid, John Harbaugh and Vrabel. Reid has Mahomes. Harbaugh has Lamar Jackson. Vrabel had Ryan Tannehill.

Vrabel wins by playing tough defense and the Patriots have built him a defensive unit that can play his brand of football. The Pats brought in players like Milton Williams, Carlton Davis, Harold Landry and Robert Spillane, and that could be the heart of a dangerous New England defense. 

The Patriots also have the easiest strength of schedule in the AFC, so this certainly feels like a team that could surprise some people in 2025. 

Fun fact: The last time the Patriots went worst to first came during Tom Brady's first two seasons with the team. During his rookie year -- when he was the starter yet -- the Patriots finished in last place in the AFC East with a 5-11 record. One year later, the legend of Brady started as he led the team to first-place finish and an eventual win in Super Bowl XXXVI over the Rams. 

1. San Francisco 49ers

2024 record: 6-11
Odds to win NFC West: +155

If there's any team that can go from worst to first in 2025, it's the 49ers. For one, they're actually FAVORED to win the division this year even though they finished in fourth place last year. A big reason they were so bad in 2024 is because everyone was injured. Christian McCaffrey missed 13 games, Brandon Aiyuk missed 10 games and Trent Williams missed seven games. That's brutal. That means their starting left tackle, their star running back and their top receiver all missed substantial time. Their season was derailed almost before it started.

Although Aiyuk won't be ready to start the season, McCaffrey and Williams will both be ready to roll. The other thing working in the 49ers' favor is that every other team in the division has at least one giant question mark. The defending champion Rams have an aging quarterback (Matthew Stafford), who's dealing with a back injury. The Seahawks will be led by Sam Darnold, who will be out to prove that he wasn't just a one-year wonder in Minnesota last season. And then there's the Cardinals, who can never seem to get out of their own way (They've only won the division once over the past 15 years). 

The 49ers have won this division in two of the past three years and there's no reason they can't do it this year. 

Fun fact: The 49ers have only gone from worst to first a total of one time in franchise history and that came all the way back in 1970. After going 4-8-2 in 1969, the 49ers returned with a vengeance in 1970. Not only did they win the NFC West with a record of 10-3-1, but they also made it all the way to the NFC title game before losing to Dallas.