Hello football friends, and welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!
The first Thursday night game of the season is officially here. OK, well, technically, it's the second Thursday night game of the year, but it's the first one being played in America and it's the first one where both teams will be coming into the game on a short week. Actually, now that I'm thinking about it, I think it's fair to label this as the first Thursday night game because last week's game actually kicked off on a Friday at 10:35 a.m. local time in Australia.
While I debate with myself over whether this is the first or second Thursday night game of the year, we need to get to the rundown, because we have a lot to cover, starting with the Lions-Bills game. And remember, if you plan on watching that game tonight, you'll need an Amazon subscription. If you don't feel like shelling out $139 for an annual subscription, you can sign up for a free 30-day trial here, which will allow you to watch the game. And no, Amazon did not pay me to get you to sign up. I'm doing this out of the goodness of my heart because I want everyone to be able to watch when the Bills an Lions combine for 97 points tonight.
As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here.
1. Thursday night preview: Picks and best bets for Lions at Bills
The second week of the NFL season is starting off with a showdown in Buffalo where the Bills (1-0) will be hosting the Lions (1-0) in a possible SUPER BOWL PREVIEW. Is it too early to say that? Probably, but I'm going to say it anyway.
The Bills will be opening their new stadium tonight, so should be an electrifying atmosphere in Buffalo.
Jared Dubin put a preview together for this game, and here's how he sees the game playing out:
- Why the Lions can win: The Lions can pull off the upset if they can turn this into the Jahmyr Gibbs show. The Bills defense gave up 124 yards on the ground in Week 1 and Gibbs might be able to top that. The Lions' star ran for 156 yards in the opener and if he can get anywhere near that number in Buffalo, that would be great news for the Lions. If Gibbs is running the ball well, that will keep the clock moving and keep Josh Allen off the field. In Gibbs' career, the Lions are undefeated (11-0) when he rushes for at least 100 yards.
- Why the Bills can win: After throwing for 334 yards against a Texans team that was supposed to have one of the best defenses in football, Josh Allen gets a slightly easier challenge this week: The Lions secondary. In their Week 1 win over the Saints, the Lions got torched by Tyler Shough for 410 passing yards. That is not a typo. Tyler Shough topped 400 yards passing. With the Lions hitting the road on a short week, it's hard to imagine that they'll be able to fix the issues that plagued them on Sunday. Basically, look for Josh Allen to have a big game.
You can get a full preview of the game from Dubin by clicking here.
If you're thinking about betting on the game, here are a couple of props.
- ONE RUSHING PROP I LIKE: Josh Allen OVER 274.5 passing yards (+154 at FanDuel): With the Bills opening their new stadium tonight, I feel like Allen is going to go off. He topped 300 yards passing in Week 1, and now, he gets to face a Lions defense that couldn't stop Tyler Shough. I won't be surprised if Allen throws for more than 300 yards -- and you can bet that at +270 -- but I'm going to stick with the over on 274.5 here.
- ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE: Tyler Bass OVER 7.5 points (-140 at BetMGM): After watching the Bills score 36 points against the Texans in Week 1, I feel like we're going to see them light up the scoreboard again tonight. Bass scored 12 points on Sunday and getting to eight in this game almost seems like a lock.
If you're wondering how my props are doing this year, I'm 3-1 (1-1 on kicker props and 2-0 on all other props).
And now, it's time for some picks.
PICKS FOR 'TNF'
Jared Dubin's pick: Bills 35-32 over Lions
John Breech's pick: Bills 38-31 over Lions
Jordan Dajani's pick: Bills 36-30 over Lions
Tyler Sullivan's pick: Bills 31-27 over Lions
Prisco's pick: Bills 36-30 over Lions
Yup, we're all picking the Lions to lose. I feel like that never ends up working out well for us.
Over on our CBSSports.com picks page, all seven of our experts have the Bills pulling out the win, but not everyone has Buffalo covering as a 4.5-point favorite.
2. NFL Week 2 picks: Jaguars and Cardinals pull off upsets
Now that we've gotten our picks out of the way for the Thursday night game, let's get to our picks for every other game that's being played this week. In the past, we handed out our weekly writer picks on Friday, but with no Friday newsletter this year, we're handing them out today. We have five NFL writers -- Pete Prisco, Jordan Dajani, Jared Dubin, Tyler Sullivan and myself -- handing out picks every week, and we're going to cover those below.
The opening week of the season can be tough to predict, but it wasn't for Sullivan, who went 13-3 with his picks in Week 1. I might have to copy his picks this week. Just kidding, I've already seen all of his picks for this week and none of them are good.
If you're new here, here's how things work: I'll give you one Week 2 pick from each writer and then direct you to the rest of their picks for the week. That way, if you like their pick, you'll be able to click over and check out all of their Week 2 picks, but if you hate their pick, you can ignore the rest of their picks and move on with your life.
- Pete Prisco -- Jaguars (+2.5) 23-20 over Broncos. From Prisco: "The Jaguars went to Denver and beat them last December and I think they will beat them again. Look for a big game from Bhayshul Tuten running it for Jacksonville." For the rest of Prisco's Week 2 picks, be sure to click here.
- Tyler Sullivan -- Eagles (-7) 27-17 over Titans. From Sullivan: "Tennessee scored just 10 points in Week 1, which was the fewest point total in a season opener at home in franchise history. It's hard to imagine this unit suddenly finding success against a superior defense that took it to them on Sunday. Maybe it's a trap, but I don't care. I'll fade Cam Ward and the Titans until they give me a reason not to." For the rest of Sullivan's Week 2 picks, be sure to click here.
- Jordan Dajani -- Texans (-2.5) 27-23 over Bengals. From Dajani: "I found such joy in watching the Bengals defense force three fumbles on the Bucs' first four possessions. The fans in the stands must have been crying tears of joy. Still, this was a competitive matchup that came down to the wire. As for the Texans, no one expected that defense to allow 36 points and for Josh Allen to register the first 300-yard passing game vs. Houston since 2024. If that's a sign of things to come, then the Bengals are winning this game. But I think DeMeco Ryans is going to have this defense ready to roll and rebound in their second straight home game." Dajani's full slate of picks will be released Friday, but you can get a preview here.
- Jared Dubin -- Patriots (-5.5) 21-13 over Steelers. From Dubin: "The Seahawks' defense totally shut down everything that Drake Maye and the rest of the offense wanted to do, and it got ugly in the fourth quarter in particular. The Steelers, meanwhile, shut down everything the Falcons offense wanted to do on Sunday. But Maye is not Cooper Rush, and the Patriots are not the Falcons. This should be a relatively low-scoring game, but I still trust New England's offense a lot more than Pittsburgh's, and that should be enough to take home the win." For the rest of Dubin's Week 2 picks, be sure to click here.
- John Breech -- Cardinals (+4.5) 20-17 over Seahawks. I never thought I would say this, but I think I might believe in Cardinals. Am I totally overreacting after one game? Probably. Will I get laughed off the internet if he they lose by two touchdowns this week? Definitely. But I don't care, I believe in Arizona and I think the Cards are going to pull off the upset here. For the rest of my Week 2 picks, be sure to click here.
For more Week 2 NFL picks, you can check out our CBSSports.com picks page here.
3. Ranking the five 0-1 teams that need to win the most in Week 2
I don't want to say that any team is facing a must-win game in Week 2, but it kind of feels that way, especially for the 0-1 teams out there. If NFL history has shown us one thing, it's that dropping to 0-2 is the kiss of death when it comes to making the postseason. Since 1990, there have been a total of 298 teams that have started 0-2 and only 38 of them have made the playoffs. That's just 12.8%.
With that in mind, Tyler Sullivan decided to rank the five teams that need to win the most this week. Here are the top three teams on his list:
1. Cowboys (vs. Commanders). If the defense doesn't show signs of life and/or Prescott turns the ball over at a critical juncture again as they head home to face the Commanders, the Cowboys will be a Defcon 1. That would not only mean they've fallen to 0-2 for the season, but also that they've dropped two divisional games in the process, which could prove monumental for tiebreakers later this season. When you consider an international matchup with the Baltimore Ravens in Week 3 and then a road matchup against the Texans in Week 4, things could start slipping quickly for Jerry Jones' club, so a win here would do a lot to calm the nerves around AT&T Stadium.
2. Patriots (vs. Steelers). The Steelers' offense struggled against a battered Falcons defense in Week 1, so if New England can't create distance between them on Sunday afternoon, real concerns are starting about what this team truly is. They could also be looking at the possibility of a 0-4 start if they lose here. After Week 2, the Patriots will be on the road for two weeks (at Jacksonville and at Buffalo).
3. Packers (at Jets). While New York did look vastly improved from what they were a year ago, thanks to their offseason additions, they are still the Jets. If Green Bay fancies itself as a playoff-caliber team in the NFC, it should be able to head into this road environment and pull out a win against a team that is widely expected to be on the outside looking in on the postseason this year. While the Jets are an AFC opponent, they need to pick up the layup wins when they are in front of them.
If you want to see Sullivan's full list of teams that are in a must-win situation this weekend, we've got that here.
4. QB power rankings: Josh Allen is at the top
Every week during the NFL season, Garrett Podell goes through and ranks every quarterback in the league. We won't be breaking this down every week, but we will be checking in periodically and that starts today. As Garrett notes in his story, "These rankings are fluid and designed to tell the story of each starting quarterback's respective rise and/or fall throughout the season."
That means that these rankings are based on what a QB has done this year.
After one week of action, let's check out the top three names on the list:
1. Josh Allen, Bills. Josh Allen shook the Texans' monkey off his back in a massive way with a dominant performance in a 36-31 road win, and it was against the defense many think is going to be the league's best this season. He threw for 334 yards passing and two passing touchdowns while completing 20 of his 29 throws (69%).
2. Lamar Jackson, Ravens. Lamar Jackson had one of the smoothest outings of Week 1 in a 41-23 road victory over the Indianapolis Colts. He threw for 324 yards and a touchdown on 17-of-25 passing (68%), while adding 40 yards rushing and another touchdown on the ground on seven carries. His footwork and timing were pristine in his first game under new Ravens offensive coordinator Declan Doyle's scheme.
3. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes returned to action exactly nine months after tearing his ACL and MCL, which is truly an incredible feat. He didn't need to be Superman, with Kenneth Walker III putting on the cape and going for 173 yards, but he was solid. He threw for 184 yards, two passing touchdowns and an interception on 15-of-27 passing, while also adding a 15-yard rushing touchdown.
So the guys who are always good are still good. That's my main takeaway from Garrett's top three.
Garrett ranked every QB who played in Week 1 and if you want to see his full list, you can do that here (Spoiler alert: Cooper Rush ranked dead last this week).
5. Predicting all 14 teams that will make the NFL playoffs
It might sound crazy to try and predict the entire NFL playoff field after just one week of action, but we specialize in crazy here, so that's exactly what we did this week.
Our resident analytics expert, Stephen Oh, simulated the rest of the season to see how things will end up shaking out. For those of you who are not familiar with Oh's work, let me just say this: If AI was human, it would be Oh.
Here's what the playoff field looks like according to Oh's projections:
AFC
1. Ravens (AFC North champion)
2. Bills (AFC East champion)
3. Chiefs (AFC West champion)
4. Jaguars (AFC South champion)
5. Bengals
6. Texans
7. Broncos
AFC breakdown: If this projection holds up, that means we'll have three new playoff teams in the AFC with the Ravens, Bengals and Chiefs getting in. The biggest surprise here might be that the reigning AFC champion Patriots are projected to miss the postseason.
NFC
1. Seahawks (NFC West champion)
2. Lions (NFC North champion)
3. Eagles (NFC East champion)
4. Falcons (NFC South champion)
5. 49ers
6. Bears
7. Rams
NFC breakdown: The Bears' 59-point outburst in Week 1wasn't enough to put them at the top of the division. The computer thinks the Lions are in the driver's seat to take home the NFC North title. Also, the Rams are just barely hanging on by a threat. The computer has them finishing as the third-place team in the NFC West.
Not only did the computer project the entire playoff field, but it also picked a surprising Super Bowl winner and if you want to know who that is, you'll have to check out my full story here.
6. Extra points: Falcons still haven't named a starting QB for Week 2
It's been a busy few days around the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything, I put together a quick roundup for you.
- Falcons starting QB for Week 2 is a mystery. If Falcons coach Kevin Stefanski has made a decision about who's going to start in Week 2, he hasn't told anyone yet. Usually we know who's going to start based on who gets the first-team reps in practice, but that doesn't help us here. According to Cooper Rush, he split the first-team reps with Michael Penix Jr. during Wednesday's practice. "I don't know exactly the amount. But we were both out there, me and Mike," Rush said. "It was good work." Based on that nugget, it sounds like Stefanski is hoping that Penix will be healthy enough to start against the Panthers on Sunday, but if he's not good to go, then Rush will likely get his second straight start (Tua Tagovailoa is still dealing with back spasms and doesn't appear to be an option this week).
- Sam Darnold out for Week 2. Unlike Atlanta, there's no mystery about who's going to be the starting QB in Seattle this week. Sam Darnold has already been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Cardinals, which means Drew Lock is going to get the start. Lock hasn't started a game since the 2024 season, but he did throw for 187 yards and a TD when he came on in relief of Darnold in Seattle's 13-10 over New England in Week 1.
- Joe Burrow dealing with back tightness. The Bengals QB was limited in practice on Wednesday due to back tightness. With most quarterbacks, it's not extremely notable when they don't fully participate in a Wednesday practice, but with Burrow, it is. The Bengals QB has missed 23 games due to injury in his career, so all eyes will be on his health this week. During a press conference on Wednesday, Burrow insisted that he's going to play. The concern there is that the Bengals are playing a tough Texans defense this week and the last thing Cincinnati needs is for Burrow to aggravate this injury.
- Keenan Allen could be facing an NFL suspension. The Colts receiver has been formally charged with two misdemeanors stemming from his DUI arrest last month. According to ESPN, Allen had a blood-alcohol level of .224, which is nearly three times above the legal limit of .08. A DUI has a baseline suspension of three games, but the NFL can tack on a few more if a player's BAC is above .15, which is the case here. That being said, there is a chance this case won't be settled in the next few months, so it might not impact Allen's availability this season. Allen played his first game with the Colts on Sunday and caught six passes for 32 yards in a 41-23 loss to Baltimore.
