Breaking down the 10 most interesting non-tender decisions, including Nathaniel Lowe, Alec Bohm, Gavin Lux
Plus, let's predict how each team handles their contract choice

Major League Baseball's offseason is nearing an important date. Teams have until Nov. 21 to tender contracts for the 2026 season to all of their players not already under guaranteed pacts. Alternatively, teams can sever ties with a player, making them immediate free agents. That's certain to be the fate for a number of arbitration-eligible players who, in the eyes of their current employer, are in line for paydays that are disproportionate to their on-the-field value.
Below, CBS Sports has previewed the week to come by highlighting 10 particularly interesting non-tender candidates. In each instance, you'll find analysis of the player's situation and a prediction on whether they'll be tendered, non-tendered, or traded elsewhere. You'll also find that player's projected arbitration prize, according to MLB Trade Rumors.
Do keep in mind that plenty of quality players have been non-tendered before. Last year's crop included Gavin Sheets, Kyle Finnegan, Griffin Canning, and Mike Tauchman, among others who landed with another club and had productive seasons. In the past, players like Kyle Schwarber and Cody Bellinger have met this fate. Those are now two of the top free-agent hitters available in this winter's class.
Let's get to it.
1. Nathaniel Lowe, 1B, Boston Red Sox
- Arbitration estimate: $13.5 million
Lowe might be the most obvious non-tender candidate in the majors. He was a nifty addition for the Red Sox last summer when they signed him after his failed stint with the Nationals. In 34 games, he batted .280/.370/.420 (121 OPS+) and reminded people that he has a track record of being an above-average offensive contributor. Boston has no need for another non-elite corner player, however, and especially not one slated to clear more than $13 million through arbitration. Lowe ought to land on his feet with another team, his fourth since Opening Day 2024. Prediction: Non-tendered
2. Alec Bohm, 3B, Philadelphia Phillies
- Arbitration estimate: $10.3 million
Next season will mark Bohm's final year of team control, but I think he may have already appeared in his last game with the Phillies -- to the extent that I've taken to polling sources in other front offices on if he'll be part of the organization come Jan. 1. (Most of them say no.) He's now 29 and his track record, save for the 2024 campaign, suggests he is what he is: a league-average hitter who traffics in singles and doubles and a subpar defensive third baseman. There's a spot in a lineup for Bohm, no doubt. I just anticipate the Phillies will aim higher this offseason. Prediction: Tendered and traded
3. Jonathan India, OF/2B, Kansas City Royals
- Arbitration estimate: $7.4 million
The Royals acquired India last winter hoping he'd provide at least average offense near the top of their lineup. Instead, he suffered through a career-worst season that saw him end the year in a timeshare with Adam Frazier and Michael Massey. India still managed an above-average on-base percentage, but this past Rookie of the Year Award winner doesn't offer much else anymore. Prediction: Non-tendered
4. Ryan Mountcastle, 1B, Baltimore Orioles
- Arbitration estimate: $7.8 million
It feels like the Orioles and Mountcastle have been on the verge of a divorce for most of his career. He's somehow endured to this point, just months away from beginning his walk year. I think the Orioles are, at last, going to bail one way or another. Mountcastle is a redundancy for them, a right-handed hitting first baseman, and he's coming off a career-worst showing. He'll find a home elsewhere, but I'm not convinced another team will be game to trade for him. Prediction: Non-tendered
5. Gavin Lux, OF/2B, Cincinnati Reds
- Arbitration estimate: $5 million
Lux is a pure platoon bat who: 1) provides average and walks against right-handed pitching and 2) ought to always cross the street when he sees an approaching southpaw. That would make him a fine member of a competitive roster if he offered anything defensively or on the basepaths. He doesn't, and so his flaws are easier to fixate on. It doesn't help Lux's case that he's also taking up more than 5% of the Reds' payroll. That says more about their frugality than it does him. Still, the opportunity cost angle is hard to overlook in a case like this. Prediction: Non-tendered
6. Jesús Sánchez, OF, Houston Astros
- Arbitration estimate: $6.5 million
Sánchez is one of the most frustrating players in the sport. He has the kind of kinetic gifts that give him middle-of-the-order potential, but he's seldom tapped into them for an extended period of time. Indeed, he's actually been a below-average bat for his big-league career. The Astros rolled the dice on Sánchez last deadline without their efforts paying off. They're in the market for offensive help and I could see them going either way: deciding that he's not worth the investment or that he's one offseason under their tutelage away from finally realizing his promise. Coin flip says the latter. Prediction: Tendered
7. Luis García Jr., 2B, Washington Nationals
- Arbitration estimate: $7 million
It's to be seen if the Nationals' new front office comes in with a hack-and-slash mentality or if they sit back and observe before beginning their overhaul. García is probably safe for now, if I had to guess, because he's only 25 years old and he has some legitimate offensive skills -- mostly as it pertains to making contact. He's a negative defensively and his overall track record isn't impressive (he's sporting a 98 OPS+ and 3.4 Wins Above Replacement in more than 600 big-league games), but it's probably worth giving him one more season (or at least half a season) before making a move. Prediction: Tendered
8. Jonah Heim, C, Texas Rangers
- Arbitration estimate: $6 million
Heim's inclusion seems silly only if you haven't updated your priors since the Rangers won the World Series. In the two seasons since, he's been a well-below-average hitter offering diminishing defensive returns. The Rangers have publicly asserted they intend to trim payroll. Heim's price tag wouldn't stand out otherwise, but the Rangers can surely find Kyle Higashioka a new dance partner for less than $6 million. Prediction: Traded or non-tendered
9. Christopher Morel, OF, Tampa Bay Rays
- Arbitration estimate: $2.6 million
When the Rays added Morel at the 2024 deadline in the Isaac Paredes trade with the Cubs, he was viewed as a positionless thumper who would provide power and on-base contributions at the cost of a low average. Nearly 500 plate appearances later, he's hit .208/.277/.355 (78 OPS+) with 14 home runs as a member of Tampa Bay's roster. He's still youngish (26 until late June) and even the Rays can justify $2.6 million. But I'm not sure that they should, based on his uninspiring underlying data and their roster composition, and I'm not sure that they will. Prediction: Non-tendered
10. Mark Leiter Jr., RHP, New York Yankees
- Arbitration estimate: $3 million
Leiter is a better pitcher than his bloated 4.84 ERA indicates. Need evidence? He ranked in the 92nd percentile in average exit velocity and he struck out roughly a quarter of the batters he faced. Unfortunately, that lead-in sentiment has applied for most of his career -- and that's not a good sign when you're talking about a right-handed reliever nearing his age-35 campaign. The Yankees are skilled enough at finding cheap relief arms that I think they part ways here. Prediction: Non-tendered
















