One of the most disorienting things about Week 1 rankings can be how much they diverge from the season-long rankings we have been looking at for the last three months. That's because, as we often say, you don't draft to win Week 1. That being said, now it is time to win Week 1.
Two of the biggest fallers are RJ Harvey and Kaleb Johnson. Johnson is probably less surprising; he's had a difficult preseason, and most people expect him to start the season further behind Jaylen Warren than we expected in June. Harvey's experience was much different, and we had some hopes he would lead the Broncos backfield in Week 1. I have less hope for that now than I did.
One of the things I look at after doing my own projections is what the betting odds on FanDuel look like. In Denver, it's not encouraging for Harvey. Let's start with the touchdowns. Dobbins' anytime touchdown odds are +155, Harvey's are +160. Dobbins' rushing yardage line is set at 43.5, Harvey's is 34.5. Rush attempts? Dobbins is at 11.5, Harvey at 8.5. Now, this doesn't mean that Dobbins will certainly lead the backfield, but it should leave us more open to the possibility.
Of course, you could decide this doesn't matter and start Harvey in Week 1 anyway. If you do, you should probably play him in DFS; his price is the same as Dobbins. I think the wiser path is to view him as more of a flex. Still well ahead of Johnson in the projections, but behind D'Andre Swift, Tony Pollard, and Aaron Jones.
One guy who moved up in Week 1, to just behind Harvey in full PPR, is Austin Ekeler. Ekeler was around 10 PPR FPPG when he played with Brian Robinson last year, and at least in Week 1, I expect his role to be slightly larger. I would start Ekeler over David Montgomery, Tank Bigsby, Javonte Williams, and Johnson in full PPR.
Now let's get to the rest of the Week 1 RB Preview:
Week 1 RB Preview
Numbers to know
- 49% -- Jaylen Warren has never played more than 49% of the offensive snaps for the Steelers. The way they are talking, don't be surprised if that changes.
- 22.1% -- Josh McDaniels' running backs have seen a 22% target share in his last three seasons calling plays. That gives TreVeyon Henderson enormous upside.
- 232 -- Frank Gore is the only running back to have more than 232 carries in a Greg Roman offense. Omarion Hampton will need a lot more than that to justify his ADP.
- 482 -- Saquon Barkley's 482 touches last year are a red flag. You should expect a step back; the question is how big.
- 5.2 -- The Panthers allowed a league-worst 5.2 yards per rush attempt last year. It could be a good week for both Tank Bigsby and Travis Etienne.
- 7 -- The Chargers allowed a league-low seven rushing touchdowns last year. That could limit Isiah Pacheco's upside in Week 1.
- 8.1 -- J.K. Dobbins broke a tackle once every 8.1 rush attempts in 2024; only Derrick Henry was better by that metric.
- 5 -- Tyrone Tracy fumbled five times on 230 touches last year. If those resurface, Cam Skattebo could get an early opportunity to take the job.
- 3.4 -- D'Andre Swift averaged 3.4 catches per game the last time he was in Ben Johnson's offense.
- 24.2 -- Tony Pollard averaged 24.2 touches per game in the games Tyjae Spears missed. It is a bad matchup, but Pollard should get all the work he can handle.
Waiver Wire Targets
 
CLE
Cleveland
• #22
Age: 22 • Experience: 2 yrs.
Amongst players available in at least 35% of leagues, Sampson is by far the highest in my Week 1 projections. I expect a near-even split between him and Jerome Ford, who is already rostered in 66% of leagues. This is a good matchup in a game that could be very high scoring. There is also the possibility that Sampson's role is bigger than I am projecting. I do believe he is the more talented rusher. Of course, there may be an expiration date on both Ford and Sampson if Quinshon Judkins gets signed and up to speed.
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PHI
Philadelphia
• #39
Age: 26 • Experience: 5 yrs.
Both Pierce and Woody Marks are sneaky adds this week. We expect Nick Chubb to get the start with Joe Mixon on IR, but none of us have any idea what Chubb has left after his recent injuries. The new offensive system is more conducive to Pierce's skill set, and if he pops in Week 1, he could be the starter by Week 2.
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JAC
Jacksonville
• #24
Age: 27 • Experience: 4 yrs.
I know everyone wants Jacory Croskey-Merritt to take over this backfield. But it is not nearly as certain as we would like for it to be. In fact, some people in Washington expect Rodriguez to lead the team in carries in Week 1. Rodriguez has been a very efficient rusher on the few opportunities he's been given. Three times in his career, he's had at least 10 carries, and he's topped 15 PPR Fantasy points in two of those games.
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Trey Benson
RB
ARI
Arizona
• #33
Age: 24 • Experience: 3 yrs.
Most of the backs available on the waiver wire are stash candidates. Bhayshul Tuten, Tyjae Spears, and Kendre Miller could all be in this section. But I am not sure any of them have the upside or ability Trey Benson does as a rusher. He is one injury away from being a must-start back, and James Conner is 30 years old with an extensive injury history.
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DFS Plays
 
MIA
Miami
• #28
Age: 24 • Experience: 4 yrs.
Achane is my number one projected running back in Week 1 and my top projected non-QB in full PPR. The fact that he is practicing this week eases my concern about the calf injury, and the fact that he has been dealing with the calf injury should keep his roster rate down in DFS. Achane has a chance to catch 100 passes this year, and his explosiveness gives him a chance to score on every play.
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PIT
Pittsburgh
• #30
Age: 27 • Experience: 5 yrs.
Later in the season, this could be a committee with Kaleb Johnson, but in Week 1, I would expect a significant role for Warren with Johnson and Kenneth Gainwell mixing in at times. Warren's Steelers are a 2.5-point favorite, which should allow Arthur Smith to stick to his run-heavy preferences. When they do pass, don't forget that Smith's offenses have had a 20% target share for the running backs. Even once Johnson carves out a larger role, most of those targets will go to Warren.
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Heath's Projections
My full set of Week 1 Fantasy football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. You'll find them here. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 1. Projected stats for all starting running backs are available, so be sure to check out the full set of projections at SportsLine.
