On Monday, I released my Week 4 Projections Risers and Fallers and marveled at the fact that, according to my math, Shough had the second-highest Week 4 projection at quarterback. Of course, as the week goes on, those projections often change, and I don't always rank quarterbacks as high as they are projected because of floor/ceiling concerns. So, before we get to the rest of the Week 4 QB preview, I thought it was worth spending a little time on why he's projected so high, and if we should buy it. In other words, should we actually start Shough over Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, and every other quarterback not named Josh Allen this week?
My projections start at the team level, and I'm not sure any team has a better setup for a quarterback. The Saints have run 222 plays through three games, which averages out to 74 per game. No other team is running more than 70 plays per game. Some of that is the Week 1 overtime game, but they have run 68 plays per game in the two games since. And Moore's offenses have averaged 64.5 plays per game over the last three seasons. Volume is king in Fantasy Football, and Shough's Saints are just fast; they're also pass-heavy. Shough leads all starting QBs with a 76.7% true drop-back percentage. He also led the position in that mark last year. If I haven't lost you yet, these numbers are huge not just for Shough, but also for Chris Olave, Devaughn Vele, and Juwan Johnson.
Shough also averages 4.7 rush attempts per game and so far has added 4.1 Fantasy points per game on the ground over 12 career starts. Any quarterback who leads the NFL in pass attempts and runs this much is going to be useful in Fantasy Football, maybe even elite. But QB2? This week, Shough benefits from the fact that his Saints have an implied total of 25.5 points, the fifth highest of the week, and his starting running back, Travis Etienne, is out with a hamstring injury. A high-scoring game with even less of a running game looks like a springboard for a must-start QB.
The final thing I'll say is a word about rankings. Shough is QB2 with a projection of 22.7 Fantasy points. There are ten QBs projected to score at least 21 Fantasy points. If you have one of those QBs and prefer them to Shough, I don't have much of an argument. But he's in their class, and that's news.
Let's get to the rest of the preview:
Week 4 QB Preview
Numbers to know
- 2.43 -- Case Keenum averaged 2.43 seconds to throw in Week 3. For the season, Caleb Williams is averaging 3.73.
- 91 -- Brock Purdy's 91 scramble yards are second only to Jayden Daniels. He's doing it all this season.
- 3.9% -- Geno Smith's 3.9% off-target rate is second only to Brock Purdy. Smith could be a good streamer this week against the Bears.
- 8.8% -- 8.8% of Drake Maye's passes have been graded as turnover-worthy, the worst mark in the league. You can't start him until he snaps out of this funk.
- 10.3 -- Josh Allen leads the NFL with 10.3 air yards per attempt. It's been fun to watch this new wrinkle to the offense.
- 5 -- Malik Willis only has five pass attempts in the red zone. With Achane gone, this offense has no juice at all.
- 6 -- Tyler Shough has six touchdown passes from inside the 10-yard line.
- 8.2 -- Aaron Rodgers' 8.2 air yards per attempt is his highest mark since 2019. He could be a streamer in good matchups, but this week is not one of them.
- 33.67 -- The Commanders have given up 33.67 Fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Only the Lions have been worse.
Waiver Wire Targets
 
WAS
Washington
• #8
Age: 32 • Experience: 12 yrs.
Mariota just threw three touchdown passes against the Seahawks and now gets to face a much better matchup in the Colts. He averaged 39.4 rushing yards per game in his five healthy starts last year and has great weapons in Terry McLaurin and Rachaad White. His defense is also one of the worst in the league, which should keep him in shootouts. Mariota gets the Giants in Week 5, so this could be a two-week streamer.
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ARI
Arizona
• #7
Age: 33 • Experience: 11 year
Brissett is not playing as well as he did last year. But he's still averaging 35.6 pass attempts per game, and he still has Trey McBride. He also had three touchdowns last week against the 49ers, and now he gets a Giants defense that has also been decimated by injury. He's not a top-12 quarterback but I would start him over Justin Herbert and Drake Maye.
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CLE
Cleveland
• #4
Age: 31 • Experience: 10 yrs.
I'm not saying that Deshaun Watson is back, but he has scored at least 22 Fantasy points in each of his last two games. The Steelers matchup isn't one to target, but one place they have consistently struggled is against tight ends, and Harold Fannin is Watson's best target. Watson's 105 rushing yards rank fourth at the position.
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Geno Smith
QB
NYJ
N.Y. Jets
• #7
Age: 35 • Experience: 14 yrs.
I like Geno Smith in theory a lot more than I do in the projections. He has been playing good football and I don't think the Bears defense is very good. But also, Smith's Jets only have an implied total of 20 points this week; they're on the road, and he may not have his No. 2 receiver, Adonai Mitchell. Most people are more encouraged to stream him this week. If you are, feel free to stream him over Marcus Mariota, who is my favorite streamer.
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TB
Tampa Bay
• #10
Age: 23 • Experience: Rookie
It's rare I put a Superflex stash on here, but Daniels deserves it. The undrafted rookie earned the backup job with a great camp and now he'll be starting the next few weeks for Tampa Bay. You can't start him in his first game, but Daniels has a very good arm and great speed. Maybe more importantly, he gets to play the Cowboys in Week 5. If he looks good this week, he'll be a top 24 QB next week, maybe much higher.
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DFS Plays
 
Joe Burrow
QB
CIN
Cincinnati
• #9
Age: 29 • Experience: 7 yrs.
The Bengals offense is waking up for the season, just in time for a matchup with Jacksonville. Burrow is my second-highest projected QB on the main slate and carries elite upside each and every week. I do not expect Cincinnati to stop Jacksonville's offense or have success running against them, so this should be a high-volume pass day for Burrow. The only real choice is whether you stack him with Ja'Marr Chase or Tee Higgins.
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Brock Purdy
QB
SF
San Francisco
• #13
Age: 26 • Experience: 5 yrs.
I do not think people will want to play Brock Purdy against the Broncos without Mike Evans. I'm just not sure the defense or the wide receivers matter for Purdy. In the second half of Week 3, without Evans, Purdy completed seven of 10 passes for 93 yards and two touchdowns. Any time you can get the QB2 in Fantasy points at a low roster rate, you should do it.
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Heath's projections
My full set of Week 4 Fantasy football projections for every position is here. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 4. Projected stats for all starting quarterbacks are available and will be updated throughout the week as I make changes.
