Ranking 2025 NFC contenders by tiers: Eagles eye Super Bowl repeat; Packers on rise after Micah Parsons trade

The 2025 NFL regular season is only six days away, which means all of the league's 32 teams still have hope about the upcoming campaign. 

However, it's necessary to push back all the rainbows and sunshine to establish realistic expectations for the 2025 season. Yes, there are surprises every year in the NFL: the Washington Commanders jumped from drafting second overall in the 2024 NFL Draft to the NFC Championship game thanks to quarterback Jayden Daniels' star turn as the league's Offensive Rookie of the Year, and the Minnesota Vikings won 14 games with Sam Darnold as their starting quarterback last season. 

So which teams should be perceived as legitimate contenders out of the NFC to hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy in Super Bowl LX? Which ones are the likely basement dwellers? Which ones make up the conference's middle class? Here's an educated evaluation of the NFC's 16 teams and where they belong across six tiers.

Tier 1: Real-deal contenders (4)

Philadelphia Eagles,  Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Rams, Detroit Lions 

The Philadelphia Eagles' claim to being a top-tier contender is obvious: they're the reigning Super Bowl champions, and they're one of the most dominant champions in recent memory. The 2024 Eagles became the second team since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger to have the NFL's rushing champion (2024 NFL Offensive Player of the Year Saquon Barkley with 2,005 yards) and No. 1 total defense (278.4 total yards per game allowed) along with the 1992 Dallas Cowboys, who were also Super Bowl champions. Philadelphia's entire starting lineup returns from last season, which is more than enough to offset the youth movement on defense to remain a true contender.

The Green Bay Packers have reached the postseason in both of quarterback Jordan Love's two years as Aaron Rodgers' successor, and he has done so with the two youngest teams to reach the playoffs across the last 45 seasons. Green Bay literally didn't have any scrimmage yards on offense from players older than the age of 26 in 2024. Despite all the youth last season, Green Bay fielded a top 10 scoring offense (27.1 points per game, eighth-best in the NFL) and a top 10 scoring defense (19.9 points per game allowed, sixth-best in the NFL). They also got even younger on offense with 2025 first-round pick wide receiver Matthew Golden expected to play a major role right away. The Packers also bolstered their secondary with the signing of versatile cornerback Nate Hobbs, who is also just 26 years old. Green Bay could level up from being a team with a bright future to one making a deep playoff run. 

Everything in the aforementioned paragraph above got Green Bay into this top tier of NFC contenders. Now, there's a strong chance that the Packers are the Eagles' biggest threat after acquiring All-Pro edge rusher Micah Parsons in a trade with the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday. Parsons is the first player since sacks became an individual statistic in 1982 to have 12 or more sacks in each of his first four seasons (Reggie White did so in his first four seasons played but not in his first four years in the league). Parsons' 330 quarterback pressures since being drafted 12th overall in 2021 are tied for the most in the league with Maxx Crosby of the Las Vegas Raiders, according to TruMedia. Parsons also leads the league with a 20.3% quarterback pressure rate (minimum 1,000 pass rushes) since 2021. 

Having Parsons and Pro Bowler Rashan Gary along the edges of the defensive line, ascending linebacker Edgerrin Cooper in the middle and All-Pro safety Xavier McKinney on the back gives the Packers defense high-level playmakers at all three levels. The NFL's youngest team is set to wreak havoc on the rest of the league. 

Philadelphia was nearly upset in the NFC divisional round last January, barely stifling a game-winning drive by the Los Angeles Rams in a 28-22 victory. Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford nearly overcame Jalen Carter and the Eagles' vicious defensive front. Stafford, who returned to practice after working through a back injury last week, threw 15 touchdowns and only one interception in the final nine games last season, including the playoffs. Los Angeles' 19-4 record from December through February in his starts since he joined the Rams in 2021, including the playoffs, is the best in the NFL. Being able to add former All-Pro wide receiver Davante Adams to line up opposite Puka Nacua is an embarrassment of riches, and the Rams might have the best talent along their defensive line outside of the New York Giants. 

The Detroit Lions were the NFC's No. 1 seed with a 15-2 record and the NFL's No. 1 scoring offense (33.2 points per game. Detroit returned most of the key on-field contributors to that success a season ago, but they lost both offensive coordinator Ben Johnson (now the coach of the Chicago Bears) and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn (now the coach of the New York Jets). The Lions should remain plenty of fun in 2025, but they barely stuck into the top contention tier. 

NFL teams most likely to go from worst to first in 2025: 49ers could rise, Browns' chances almost zero

John Breech

Tier 2: Fringe contenders (2)

Washington Commanders, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Yes, the Washington Commanders exceeded all expectations in 2024 as mentioned above with their NFC runner-up finish. However, they could regress toward the mean in 2025: six of their victories came when either tied or trailing in the final 10 seconds of regulation in 2024 -- that's the most such victories in a season in the 21st century. In 2024, Washington played a last-place schedule, but this year the Commanders are set to play the eighth-hardest schedule in the entire league. 

It remains to be seen how new Washington wide receiver Deebo Samuel, fresh off a career-low 53.7 scrimmage yards per game, can bounce back in 2025, and if No. 1 option Terry McLaurin exhibits any rust after his offseason holdout. There's also the unknown of how Daniels will perform in a year following the league now having a full scouting report for him at the NFL level. 

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have won the NFC South four years in a row, and the last two division crowns have come with current quarterback Baker Mayfield earning the first two Pro Bowl selections of his career. Last year, Mayfield played like a superstar: he produced the fourth season in NFL history with 70% completion percentage (71.4%) and 40 or more passing touchdowns (41), joining Drew Brees in 2011, Aaron Rodgers in 2020 and Joe Burrow, who also did so in 2024. That's why Tampa Bay gifted Mayfield another weapon in first-round pick wide receiver Emeka Egbuka. If the Buccaneers defense can play well consistently in 2024, something that didn't happen until the final seven games of the season, then Tampa Bay can contend.

Tier 3: Wild card wilderness (6)

Atlanta Falcons, San Francisco 49ers, Chicago Bears, Arizona Cardinals, Minnesota Vikings, Seattle Seahawks

The Atlanta Falcons could end their seven-season playoff drought with 2024 eighth overall pick Michael Penix Jr. beginning 2025 as their quarterback instead of the wilting Kirk Cousins. Cousins looked exactly like a 36-year-old coming off a torn Achilles last season. He struggled to step into throws and was noticeably limited when moving around in the pocket, which led to Cousins co-leading the NFL with 16 interceptions. In 2024, new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson was forced to construct an offense designed to mask Cousins' mobility woes.

That is why the Falcons had the NFL's lowest play-action pass rate (7.6%) by a significant margin: the Cowboys were the next-lowest team with an 11.1% rate. This year, Robinson can reintroduce the play-action pass in all forms to his playbook with Penix on the field, which should further accentuate the talents of the top 10 picks at running back (Bijan Robinson), wide receiver (Drake London) and tight end (Kyle Pitts). 

Will former All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey be healthy for the San Francisco 49ers in 2025? That's a massive question. In 2023, McCaffrey was the NFL's leading rusher (1,459 rushing yards) and won NFL Offensive Player of the Year honors. As a result, the 49ers reached overtime of the Super Bowl before losing to the Kansas City Chiefs again in the big game. McCaffrey played just four games in 2024 while dealing with bilateral Achilles tendonitis and a PCL injury, and San Francisco missed the playoffs entirely. Quarterback Brock Purdy is also without Deebo Samuel (traded to the Commanders), Brandon Aiyuk (recovering from a torn ACL and MCL) and Jauan Jennings (holdout/calf injury). Things could also go south for the 49ers early on.

Can new Chicago Bears coach Ben Johnson and the team's retooled offensive line of left tackle Braxton Jones, left guard Joe Thuney, center Drew Dalman, right guard Jonah Jackson and right tackle Darnell Wright maximize 2024 first overall pick quarterback Caleb Williams? If so, the Bears will  be a playoff team. The Arizona Cardinals could be in the playoff mix after investing healthy in their defense this offseason, signing Josh Sweat and drafting both defensive tackle Walter Nolen (first round) and cornerback Will Johnson (second round). 

The Minnesota Vikings have everything they need to be great except the quarterback. J.J. McCarthy, the 10th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, is fresh off of a torn meniscus, and he was the first first-round quarterback chosen with zero seasons of college football with either 3,000 yards passing or 500 yards rushing since these Vikings selected Christian Ponder 12th overall in the 2011 NFL Draft out of Florida State. The most recent passer selected in the top 10 like McCarthy without either such benchmark in college was Detroit Lions 2002 third overall pick, Oregon quarterback Joey Harrington. He was a clear cut disappointment.  

New Seattle Seahawks Sam Darnold may not look as strong outside of the Vikings' quarterback incubator. He struggles mightily when pressured, and now he's being protected by an offensive line that surrendered a 39.4% quarterback pressure rate, the third-highest in the entire NFL, in 2024. Yes, the Seahawks did choose North Dakota State FCS All-America guard Grey Zabel 18th overall in the 2025 NFL Draft, but it's an offensive line unit that is very much still a work in progress. 

Tier 4: The Dallas Cowboys (1)

Dallas Cowboys

The Dallas Cowboys are in their own, special tier. Offensively, they should be alright. They did win seven games in 2024 despite three-time Pro Bowl quarterback Dak Prescott missing the second half of the season with a torn hamstring, but he's fully healthy now. Prescott led the NFL with 36 passing touchdowns in 2023, the last season he was healthy, and Dallas gave him the explosive George Pickens to line up opposite All-Pro CeeDee Lamb. 

However, the defense is a different story. The Cowboys' defensive expected points added (EPA) per play when Parsons is on the field is the best in the NFL since 2021. When off the field in that same span, Dallas has the league's worst EPA per play, per CBS Sports Research. That information indicates Jerry Jones made the wrong move in trading him to the Packers. Yes, new Dallas defensive tackle Kenny Clark is a three-time Pro Bowler, but he turns 30 years old on Oct. 4. Also, Pro Football Focus graded Clark 43rd among interior defenders in their run defense grade (58.4) metric. He had a tough year adjusting to new Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley's scheme in 2024. Clark may not make the impact Jones envisions he will. 

Tier 5: How many days until the 2026 NFL Draft? (2)

Carolina Panthers, New York Giants

Carolina Panthers may see their investment in 2023 first overall pick quarterback Bryce Young truly begin to pay dividends in 2025, but they were the NFL's worst scoring defense (31.4 points per game allowed) and total defense (404.5 total yards per game allowed) last season. The 179.8 rushing yards per game the Panthers allowed last season were the most by any defense since the 1987 Atlanta Falcons allowed 182.3 rushing yards per game. 

Yes, defensive tackle Derrick Brown suffering a season-ending injury in Week 1 hurt a lot, but will his return be enough to uplift a unit that struggled mightily across the board in 2024? They probably need some more draft reinforcements come April 2026. 

The New York Giants need another pass catcher who can really shine outside of wide receiver Malik Nabers, and the interior of their offensive line remains a question mark. Should the Giants choose to start Russell Wilson, who will be 37 years old on Nov. 29, most of the year over first-round pick Jaxson Dart, New York could lose a lot of games. 

Tier 6: The Sad New Orleans Saints (1)

New Orleans Saints

The Saints have a tier of their own as the obvious pick to be the worst team in the NFC. This was a team that lost all seven games with Week 1 starter Derek Carr sidelined because of injury in 2024: they went 0-6 in Spencer Rattler's and 0-1 in Jake Haener's lone start. Carr's shocking offseason retirement led to the Saints selecting Tyler Shough, who turns 26 years old on Sept. 28, in the second round of the 2025 NFL Draft, and he failed to beat out Rattler to be the team's Week 1 starting quarterback. Neither have won an NFL game as a starter, and the rest of the roster is mostly an aging veteran group with not much upside. 

New Orleans is the heavy favorite to be selecting first overall when the 2026 NFL Draft rolls around.